The Stock Market

[lannarebirth]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

And today is where I get out. Maybe it'll go higher, who knows?

[zorro1]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

And today is where I get out. Maybe it'll go higher, who knows?

why did youn get out? eyeballing chart looks like higher lows n highs. why not wait until a sell signal starts. or even better why not put a trailing stop and see where the market takes you?

REE REE REE REE get the picture? as blackjack has pointed out this sector is hotter then a 10 chilli som tam. Some coys are even checking Tyre treads from their trucks to see if ree is present. NO JOKE!!

[lannarebirth]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

And today is where I get out. Maybe it'll go higher, who knows?

why did youn get out? eyeballing chart looks like higher lows n highs. why not wait until a sell signal starts. or even better why not put a trailing stop and see where the market takes you?

REE REE REE REE get the picture? as blackjack has pointed out this sector is hotter then a 10 chilli som tam. Some coys are even checking Tyre treads from their trucks to see if ree is present. NO JOKE!!

Because I achieved my objective already and with a whole lot more contracts than I started with. But to answer your question more specifically, I don't like charts once they go vertical. I don't like charts with 3 unfilled gaps (Cash Rice) and volume is declining on the big contract while price rises. There are a couple of gaps in the 15's that will probably get filled but I'm taking a break.

Edited October 26, 2010 by lannarebirth

[ronz28]

THD has been a great trade. Too bad I wasn't in it.

[flying]

Because I achieved my objective already and with a whole lot more contracts than I started with. But to answer your question more specifically, I don't like charts once they go vertical. I don't like charts with 3 unfilled gaps (Cash Rice) and volume is declining on the big contract while price rises. There are a couple of gaps in the 15's that will probably get filled but I'm taking a break.

Congrats !

Nice work or is that rice work?

You had a premise & stuck to it.

Good Call

[flying]

THD has been a great trade. Too bad I wasn't in it.

I have one like that too....Ford

I was never into auto stocks either.

But back when the crisis hit & the auto makers were asking for handouts...

When I saw Ford decide to go it alone I thought... Sheesh under $2 a share!

But like a deer in headlights I did nothing....I see they are over $14 today

[Abrak]

THD has been a great trade. Too bad I wasn't in it.

And how does a Thai ETF consistently outperform the SET. It simply prices itself in US$.

[BlackJack]

look at morningstarthailand and pull the 5 star funds

top ones paying nearly 59% PA

great punt for mums and dads looking at Thailands growth

[midas]

The Stock Market who is back in? good question

Insider Selling Volume at Highest Level Ever Tracked

The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39850796/1?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo&refresh=true

25th Sequential Stock Fund Outflow, $81 Billion Year To Date

ICI reported the 25th outflow in a row. Total YTD money redeemed is now $81 billion. From the market bottom in July, all the way to the current 2010 highs, the market has seen $51 billion in 16 sequential outflows

[badge]

I saw this and thought of you

spxvccpsi.bmp

[badge]

Not sure Ive ever seen such slanted results - its either become too commercial to be of any use, or its a significant extreme.

Sentiment Survey

Results Week ending 10/27/2010

Bullish 51.2%

up 1.6

Neutral 27.2%

up 2.0

Bearish 21.6%

down 3.6

Long-Term Average:

Bullish: 39%

Neutral: 31%

Bearish: 30%

EDIT: Infact a cursory glance over the historical data shows the last reading of this degree was 12-8-2005

Edited October 28, 2010 by badge

[midas]

I saw this and thought of you

Doctor i keep taking the pills but the symptoms are still there

[badge]

Not sure Ive ever seen such slanted results - its either become too commercial to be of any use, or its a significant extreme.

[...]

EDIT: Infact a cursory glance over the historical data shows the last reading of this degree was 12-8-2005

Actually the previous extreme was most recently seen on Feb 22nd 2007.

[midas]

Not sure Ive ever seen such slanted results - its either become too commercial to be of any use, or its a significant extreme.

[...]

EDIT: Infact a cursory glance over the historical data shows the last reading of this degree was 12-8-2005

Actually the previous extreme was most recently seen on Feb 22nd 2007.

ok badge , Abrak keeps reminding me that i know nothing about the markets

and that I am an idiot So i can ask what might sound a dumb question ?

If the extreme was last seen in Feb 2007, at that time what was the rate

of insider selling compared to now and what was the

level of participation of retail investors then compared to now ?

If there were dramatic differences between Feb 2007 and now,

in your opinion would that be relevant and if so how ?

Edited October 29, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

Not sure Ive ever seen such slanted results - its either become too commercial to be of any use, or its a significant extreme.

[...]

EDIT: Infact a cursory glance over the historical data shows the last reading of this degree was 12-8-2005

Actually the previous extreme was most recently seen on Feb 22nd 2007.

Badge,

From what I remember the data is more 'commercial' now. You can see that by the percentage of neutral sentiment. It very rarely gets up to its long term average nowadays and people tend to only post if they are 'bullish' or 'bearish'.

As an aside I rather felt looking at the data that 'extremes of bearishness' was a superb indicator of market bottoms, while 'extremes of bullishness' was more 'an indicator' of market tops but is less reliable.

[Abrak]

Midas, this is your chart or table.

Where you have a logical disconnect is this. It clearly shows that the absolute peak of the market during your chart coincided with the maximum (and only significant) inflow of retail mutual fund money (not that there is a huge amount of correlation.)

[midas]

Midas, this is your chart or table.

Where you have a logical disconnect is this. It clearly shows that the absolute peak of the market during your chart coincided with the maximum (and only significant) inflow of retail mutual fund money (not that there is a huge amount of correlation.)

I am just an amateur observer - i have never professed to be otherwise

-i.e. just trying to make sense of it all

But even the " experts " see something unusual :-

" As Vincent Deluard - a strategist for TrimTabs Investment Research (25% of the top 50 hedge funds in the world use TrimTabs' research for market timing) - says:

We've never seen this before – such a huge rally, and the little guy is out.

In other words, the stock market rally is due almost entirely to hedgies, pension funds, banks and other institutional investors, and not every day investors." ( and he didnt mention insiders

And as some of these remaining players are being given free money and have HFT computers- they have nothing to lose

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/09/even-little-guy-now-realizes-that-stock.html

Edited October 29, 2010 by midas

[badge]

Not sure Ive ever seen such slanted results - its either become too commercial to be of any use, or its a significant extreme.

[...]

EDIT: Infact a cursory glance over the historical data shows the last reading of this degree was 12-8-2005

Actually the previous extreme was most recently seen on Feb 22nd 2007.

ok badge , Abrak keeps reminding me that i know nothing about the markets

and that I am an idiot So i can ask what might sound a dumb question ?

If the extreme was last seen in Feb 2007, at that time what was the rate

of insider selling compared to now and what was the

level of participation of retail investors then compared to now ?

If there were dramatic differences between Feb 2007 and now,

in your opinion would that be relevant and if so how ?

Its apples and oranges Midas.

All anecdotal in anycase, IMVHO of course.

[TenCent]

I am new to this Thread, so excuse, if I maybe repeat on a montioned Value

the US Thai ETF is the MSCI Thailand, what reflects ALL Stocks in Thailand, not only the SET 50 or SET 100

Outperformers in the Emerging Markets are MSCI Turkey, MSCI Korea, MSCI Chile, MSCI Colombia - its not only the Stocks, its also the Currency, what outperforms - same with MSCI Thailand

The Currency Apreciation is a real Winner in these Investments, specially when your base Currency is USd or EUR

[ronz28]

I am new to this Thread, so excuse, if I maybe repeat on a montioned Value

the US Thai ETF is the MSCI Thailand, what reflects ALL Stocks in Thailand, not only the SET 50 or SET 100

Outperformers in the Emerging Markets are MSCI Turkey, MSCI Korea, MSCI Chile, MSCI Colombia - its not only the Stocks, its also the Currency, what outperforms - same with MSCI Thailand

The Currency Apreciation is a real Winner in these Investments, specially when your base Currency is USd or EUR

Agreed Currency Appreciation is a factor as the Thai Baht has appreciated about 21% from 1 Mar 2009 to 1 Nov 2010 per

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=THBUSD=X+Interactive#chart3:symbol=thbusd=x;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

I don't know if you can say that accounts for performance of 21% but its probably a rough estimate.

The top holdings per Yahoo Finance driving performance of THD are detailed below and perhaps some of these were up big during that time frame but I haven't researched that.

Top 10 Holdings (63.12% Of Total Assets)

Advanced Info Service Public Co Ltd 4.34%

Bangkok Bk 9.20%

Banpu Public Co Ltd 4.42%

C.P. Seven Eleven Pcl-Nvdr 2.65%

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Co Ltd 2.78%

Kasikornbank Public Co Ltd 8.43%

PTT Exploration and Production Public Co Ltd 8.97%

PTT Public Co Ltd 11.12%

Siam Cement 4.27%

Siam Commercial Bank Public Co Ltd 6.94%

[lannarebirth]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

And today is where I get out. Maybe it'll go higher, who knows?

why did youn get out? eyeballing chart looks like higher lows n highs. why not wait until a sell signal starts. or even better why not put a trailing stop and see where the market takes you?

REE REE REE REE get the picture? as blackjack has pointed out this sector is hotter then a 10 chilli som tam. Some coys are even checking Tyre treads from their trucks to see if ree is present. NO JOKE!!

Google "Island Cluster Reversal"

[flying]

Google "Island Cluster Reversal"

Thanks learned something new

[churchill]

Google "Island Cluster Reversal"

Thanks learned something new

Looking at the weather in Thailand I don't suppose any farmer is having an easy time - I would be betting on rising prices

[badge]

[...]

Google "Island Cluster Reversal"

Lovely job LB

[BlackJack]

zorro1

at this time of the night, it seems like we are the only two humans left on this whole wide world.... lol

what does it mean 20 dollars/trade? is it roundturn--both getting in and getting out at 20 dollars?

is is aus dollars or us dollars pls?

thx again

nakachalet only reason I'm here is its keeping me off the streets of Bangkok and out of mischief lol. Its a sliding scale , your first 20 trades are at around $35 in AND $35 out and the drops to $20 in AND $20 out. I trade withe directshares.com.au so you can check out their prices on line , in OZ dollars. Avoid brokers like the plague.

CMC is less tha 10 bucks a trade and allows free conditional trading

[Abrak]

Here is the latest investor sentiment survey.

http://www.aaii.com/SentimentSurvey

Bulls 58%

Neutral 14%

Bears 28%

The bull vote is almost two standard deviations away from its average which is very extreme. Another way of looking at this bullish sentiment is to take the 8 week MVA which is currently at 49% for bullishness, the highest level it has reached since 2005.

The really extreme number though is the 'neutral' vote. In the first 650 data points collected, there was never a reading this low and I believe it is the 5th lowest ever of over 1200 data points. The last two this low were at the beginning of October 2008. Whether a massive extreme lack of neutrality actually tells you anything about the market is beyond me.

[Parvis]

http://www.aaii.com/SentimentSurvey

Bulls 58%

Neutral 14%

Bears 28%

Bullish sentiment should be visible in 'positive cashflow'. I look at the Markets more in terms of 'cashflow' - but not measured the 'conventional way' (therefore no standard indicator). Essentially for the Market to continue to go higher - 'positive' cashflow has to increase - as the the market goes lower - which I see at this time (but we do not seem to have an exact bottom yet).

Therefore the real question for me is what will casflow be like when we again reach the previous top at 11 500 on the Dow. My concerns about previous negative divergence - a few weeks ago - have improved.

"Bullish sentiment" can often indicate a top of the Market - because everybody has 'jubilantly' invested their last $.

Edited November 14, 2010 by Parvis

[zorro1]

zorro1

at this time of the night, it seems like we are the only two humans left on this whole wide world.... lol

what does it mean 20 dollars/trade? is it roundturn--both getting in and getting out at 20 dollars?

is is aus dollars or us dollars pls?

thx again

nakachalet only reason I'm here is its keeping me off the streets of Bangkok and out of mischief lol. Its a sliding scale , your first 20 trades are at around $35 in AND $35 out and the drops to $20 in AND $20 out. I trade withe directshares.com.au so you can check out their prices on line , in OZ dollars. Avoid brokers like the plague.

CMC is less tha 10 bucks a trade and allows free conditional trading

sounds cheap but geez I know brokerage fees add up quick however it does depend on your "punt"

Someone investing 50 bucks will 100% go for CMC. 30k? does it really matter?

Oh one question , do you trade live via IRESS? if so how much for the platform on CMC.

cheers

[Abrak]

http://www.aaii.com/SentimentSurvey

Bulls 58%

Neutral 14%

Bears 28%

Bullish sentiment should be visible in 'positive cashflow'. I look at the Markets more in terms of 'cashflow' - but not measured the 'conventional way'. Essentially for the Market to continue to go higher - 'positive' cashflow has to increase - as the the market goes lower - which I see at this time (but we do not seem to have an exact bottom yet).

Actually you are beginning to play with words here by redefining 'bullish sentiment'. The poll asks whether people are bullish, bearish or neutral on markets. Namely their sentiment on markets. To the extent they are bullish then they have previously already invested or bearish and they have sold. So cashflow movements must be contracyclical to sentiment on the basis that a bull who becomes a bear will take money out of the market. It should be the delta on sentiment that determines the market movement

Therefore the real question for me is what will casflow be like when we again reach the previous top at 11 500 on the Dow. My concerns about previous negative divergence - a few weeks ago - have improved.

"Bullish sentiment" can often indicate a top of the Market - because everybody has 'jubilantly' invested their last $.

Thank you for that statement of the bleeding obvious.

I was trying really to ask whether to an extent two extremes of sentiment - lots of bears and lots of bulls - and very few imbetween was any indicator of anything. You could call it a 'divergence' on the basis that there is an extreme divergence on the view of the market one way or another.

[zorro1]

Midas this :blink: :blink:

is nearly in everyone of your posts. Is it a nervous twitch or something?

sorry bit off topic, just curious

Edited November 14, 2010 by zorro1