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Sunday Redshirt Rally Postponed


george

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There was an important link above, id like to quote some sections from it

back in 2007, this was the reaction to the proposal for the National Security Act that is now, in 2009, being used:

The proposed National Security Act will usher Thailand back into a totalitarian era and must be resisted by all means, academics warned yesterday.

"It will likely return Thailand to a state of dictatorship and climate of fear," said Prof Pasuk Phongpaichit, a leading political economist at Chulalongkorn University.

going on to say:

Assoc Prof Kritaya Archavanitkul, who heads the human rights programme at Mahidol, said the attempt to pass the law was the clearest evidence since the takeover last September that the generals were plotting to remain in power.

"There will be state within a state where the Army chief wields immense power. It will destroy the basic rights and liberties of all parties. Their move [to pass the law] is like a strip dance and even those [in civil society] who supported the coup are now having second thoughts."

The true nature and intention of the coup makers had never changed, he claimed.

"They seek to have instruments that will enable them to extend their grip on power."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/05...cs_30039437.php

and also...

Human rights violations perpetrated by state officials will therefore remain unscrutinized and go unpunished. In addition, the order of the superior is a cause of exoneration of any responsibility, in violation of international human rights law and international criminal law.

http://www.fidh.org/The-newly-adopted-Internal

Edited by mc2
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Is Thailand still advertising itself as a democracy? What a joke. But the idea that the cronies who run Thailand have anything to do with democratic rule has always been laughable.

Agreed, it isn't a real democracy here. However, surrendering to a red mob who want to install a latter day Thai Mussolini is another step in the wrong direction.

Leaving the issue of violent demostration out of it, a red shirt would say that Thaksin, the most popular politician in Thailand ever, was removed from office in a coup which was justified by extensive street protests by the yellow shirts and the resulting national instability.

Following the interim appointed military government's year in office, those representing Thaksin were again overwhelmingly voted into office but were not allowed to govern. The democratically elected PM was removed from office for wielding a spatula on TV, which could be called a bit of a stitch-up. There then followed an extraodinary shift in the balance of power when a pro-Thaksin faction crossed the floor to the Democrats who then headed a new coalition government.

If you were a red shirt. one of a huge majority of ordinary poor people who want a government that will have regards to its interests, would you not now be raging mad? Would you not want to demonstrate on the streets? Would you not feel that democracy had been denied to you and that doing what the yellow shorts did before you and doing it better is your only way out.

How sad that Thai politics has come down to a personality cult rather than a debate about contending issues. How ironic that the champion of the poor is one such as Thaksin. How sad that the politician with the strong democratic mandate is not Abhisit.

It's all so very, very sad.

If there's a lesson it's perhaps that (like regime change in Iraq), a coup achieves nothing except increasing strife.

Where can it all go from here?

Andrew

if I understand this correctly, the politicians voted in by the red shirts (for want of a better term) shifted alliances? A grand display of the character of those chosen to represent the people. But then again, they were also tarred with vote buying, a trait displayed by most Thai politicians apparently. Just, in this case, these ones were caught. Hopefully the will ban all canditate/politicians found doing this. Then perhaps my Thai gardener Somchai can be in politics. Oh maybe not, he does not have a degree. Three cheers for demockracy.

Thai politics wont change until the corrupt thinking and power for person gain ethos is eradicated. Can't see that happening soon, but good luck to all involved. It's taken parts of the world more than three hundred years + to get anywhere near fairness for their own people. Once they have it they go and invavde another country. Go figure

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Well, that is 26 posts with a definite slant against the pro-democracy movement who cancelled their rally this week-end, or rather, moved it to next weekend.

Now aren't y'all thankful there is a lonely voice in this wilderness offering an alternative POV. How boring without it, right?

Here goes.

This is all about politics I am sure you will be very surprised to hear.

Not about affinity clothing colors, but about politics.

This is about A: people who want to do away with one-person-one-vote elections and B: those who dont.

The 'A' group are the ones with all the power, and they threatened the 'B' people.

The 'B' people very cleverly played the 'A' people by rescheduling this rally, because of threats.

This clearly positioned the threateners, the 'A' people, as being the "bullies of the class". To add insult to injury, these bullies also represent a minority.

Nobody likes a bully. This just adds to the grievances of Democracy being set upon.

Smart move. And all they needed to do was delay by a week.

The 26 posts above need to think a wee bit deeper.

I know the knee-jerk reaction will be to divert into an anti-Thaksin tirade by many, but he is not my issue or concern - one-person-one-vote electoral democracy is, and regardless how you want to re-direct the conversation - one side of the political divide wants an appointive system, the other one doesn't. Democracy is the issue folks. The anti-democracy folks just threatened the pro-democracy people out of having a rally this weekend.....and that strengthens their resolve .

Brilliant political move to re-schedule in the face of a 'bully' instead of just proceeding as they could have.

Thank God for this post. I was beginning to wonder about my fellow expats et al. Think a bit deeper. Right on.

Rather than wade into the politics I'd just like to take a moment to reflect on the anti-red sentiment among so many expats. For what it's worth here is a theory, colour coded for simplicity.

Yellows represent the status quo. The status quo is very comfortable for the elite, and that includes well off expats in plush condos with maids, drivers etc etc.

The reds, however amorphous, represent the future, and the future in this country will be more egalitarian than the present.

The result will be increased opportunity for those that currently provide all the cheap services, including the sex trade, for all the privileged in Bangkok. They will not tolerate their exploitation for ever and will move on to improve their lot elsewhere.

The writing is on the wall and I contend that many expats feel their comfort zone is being threatened by the reds.

It is inevitable that change will come. How fast and how violently is the main issue.

Most here are 100% for improving the lot of the poor in Thailand,

And don't fear an increase in services costs and lack of bargirls even less.

But a great number are not threatened by that, but by Thaksin's vengfulness,

and the random chance that a Red Revolution would cause if Thaksin gets his ways.

Historically violent upheavals cause more pain for the POOR in medium term

than effective improvement in their lives. If the reds gain control it will NOT be good for

the average Somchai and wife. Accelerated change IS called for,

but the Reds and PTP are NOT the right choice for doing this....

It's a simple equation, competence coupled with opportunity can make effective changes.

Incompetence coupled with vengeful paternalist fascism will only breed long term disorder,

and increased hatred.

Very thoughtful post Ianh68. The increasing egalitarian momentum is unstoppable as you say. The current backlash to electoral politics by those who want to implement an appointive system is really an attempt to stop this momentum.

If they succeed, it would be very effective. It would take a huge revolutionary event to ever reverse this. Can you imagine anyone positioned for this appointive process ever giving it up. Never!

Your concluding statement perfectly describes to me the people who are the vanguard of this anti-egalitarian momentum Ianh68 speaks of, Animatic.

"Incompetence coupled with vengeful paternalistic fascism will only breed long term disorder and increase hatred" Although you probably didn't intend this meaning, Animatic, it is the return to this paternalistic, anti-egalitarian appointive process which is represented in your statement.

Come to think of it, I wouldn't mind a Farang debate about the paternalistic appointive process vs. that of one-person-one-vote electoral one. I'd like to see what Farangs from traditional electoral democracies think of these two approaches (without veering off into this tiresome Thaksin hater stuff)

As to which is the best choice for this accelerated change....let the electorate decide Animatic. No-one else can make that choice and have it be both credible or acceptable.

Edited by Maiya
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[quote name='animatic' date='2009

It is inevitable that change will come. How fast and how violently is the main issue.

Most here are 100% for improving the lot of the poor in Thailand,

And don't fear an increase in services costs and lack of bargirls even less.

But a great number are not threatened by that, but by Thaksin's vengfulness,

and the random chance that a Red Revolution would cause if Thaksin gets his ways.

Historically violent upheavals cause more pain for the POOR in medium term

than effective improvement in their lives. If the reds gain control it will NOT be good for

the average Somchai and wife. Accelerated change IS called for,

but the Reds and PTP are NOT the right choice for doing this....

It's a simple equation, competence coupled with opportunity can make effective changes.

Incompetence coupled with vengeful paternalist fascism will only breed long term disorder,

and increased hatred.

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I am fortunate to the extent I came here as a retiree and therefore had no need to get "involved" commercially to the extent I might have made enemies. Thaksin vengefulness I can foresee but I am curious to know in what way you envisage it impacting on the expat community.

I agree that historically violent upheavals are more painful than beneficial in the short term (though if your use of caps in POOR imply they suffer disproportionately to the rich I would appreciate evidence).

The problem with saying the Reds and PTP are not the right agents for necessary change begs the question of who are the right agents and where are they.

If they cannot be found then perhaps critical but unconditional support for the Reds is the only progressive option.

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I don't get it. The BKP has an article today that says there is no problem with the "Reds" having their gathering as long as it's peaceful, and told them so. Is there a problem with the "peaceful" part with the "Reds"??

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Berlusconi didn't order the murder of 3000 people, so he does not deserve to be compared with Thaksin.

thaksin didn't order the murder of 3000 people.

why telling BS?

HRW have the drug war number at closer to 2500. However, there were a number down south too.

Edited to add: head of government is always held responsible for government policies especially relating to deaths. Taylor, Milosevic etc.

Latest I read were 28?? with an estimate of 50 % who didn't had anything to do with drugs.

and where you read that thaksin did order the murder? any evidence for that or BS?

2500 or 28?? death in the war on drugs? still an exaggerated hoax number.

and yeah a high percent part or murders in that numbers that got so often repeated had nothing to do with drugs or the war on drugs.

they are victims of other crimes like robberies, manslaughter, domestic violence and whatever where guns have been involved. that are not some innocent vitims of a war on drugs. they just got addded by someone to the statistics do make the number look higher.

there are also statistics and figures about the deaths in the south. the weakly death toll was rising after the coup and during the time of the junta regime.

what is the point in repeating lies and BS again and again. doesn't give you any credebility. why not provide accurate informations?

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I don't get it. The BKP has an article today that says there is no problem with the "Reds" having their gathering as long as it's peaceful, and told them so. Is there a problem with the "peaceful" part with the "Reds"??

You just got it.

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Previous Yellow airport closures and Red Songkran riots caused terrible blows to Thailand. All blended with the worst economic crisis since the great depression, along with flu fear and some 'own goal' fiasco's creating the 'perfect negative storm'. Now, just when it appears Thailand may be poised to emerge from recession and in advance of a hoped for even 'modest' high season, it appears Mr Thaksin's proxies and red leaders may have a different plan.

Is all the noise really about elections, or something a bit more 'personal'?

A look at the math shows Puea Thai/Reds demand for an election may be just a smokescreen.

If an election were called today, Puea Thai would emerge as a minority govt (again) similar to the Samak govt situation. This would require Puea Thai to form a coalition with Newin/Bhumjai (again) in order to survive. One still hopes/prays Mr Newin's influence may yet be clipped via the upcoming rubber saplings corruption verdict (but don't bet on it).

Currently, it doesn't appear the cunning Mr Newin is ready or willing to re-join forces again at the feet of 'master' Mr Thaksin. This may change in the future as both have very similar styles, similar bases of support, similar ambitions and mostly because both stand to benefit from a re-union. It's just not in the cards at this time or the Dems would already be out with Puea Thai joining Newin Bhumjai. Didn't happen and here we are.

Thus, if elected, a Puea Thai minority govt wouldn't last a first vote in the house and they, their Red leaders and their overall leader Mr Thaksin must be well aware of this. Of course the avg innocent rural red supporter is likely kept unaware of this fact, as such info is probably on a need to know basis (same goes for the impossible but 'helpfully' divisive pardon petition). Regardless, demands for pardons and elections remain a red-herring.

However, if conditions for a coup were to occur, this could reverse fortunes. Under present conditions the dangerous bit is, if a coup were to occur now it has the potential to see security forces loyal to one side(s) or the other opposing each other.

Having said that, if the needed head-count were in place at Songkran, it would have likely happened then. PM Abhisit bringing in 'loyal' Army forces from Korat to quell the April red riots peacefully may have pre-empted this scenario from emerging then. Certainly the Police rank and file are on the red/Thaksin side for the most part (who better to 'preserve and protect' their ways?). It remains to be seen if Thaksin-friendly high-ranking members of the armed forces have the needed numbers to swing the precarious balance (critically or strategically).

The other critical element needed for a coup (or rather a re-coup) is a catalyst to create the right conditions. This is most easily achieved by inciting red-riots (again).

Is a coup 'attempt' likely? Probably. Would a coup attempt be successful? Probably not.

Is there potential for escalation? Unfortunately YES. likely very soon.

However, if the govt can get past November and some crucial dates beforehand, Mr Thaksin will then be on the back-foot and Thailand will be on much firmer footing as a result. Upcoming is the annual Police re-shuffle, Military re-shuffle and high-ranking civil servants re-shuffle. There is also a 2000 lb gorilla in the room with Mr Thaksin's 2 billion USD assets confiscation decision upcoming. Add in the fact all indicators show increasingly positive consumer and economic confidence and time/window of opportunity is running short (for some).

The reds have already been further primed/incited by their handlers, with the deceptive pardon petition 'game' and now with a controversial tape presented at the last minute seemingly to stir up sentiment even further. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Bangkokians agree with the govt invoking a localised Internal Security Act and judging by past red 'rallies', this is justified, even sensible.

One factor which may prevent an escalation is the EC verdict for disqualification of the 44 MP's charged with conflict of interest public share ownership. It was just announced on Thursday the verdict is coming next week which will cause critical by-elections. Puea Thai make up the majority and it may not be a winning recipe if some are seen as associated with causing riots. Then again, if the call for elections is simply a ruse and the real intent is to create conditions for a re-coup, by-elections may not matter in the larger 'scheme' of things.

Bottom line for the colourless majority? Incited riots would certainly spell disaster for Thailand, also wipe-out any hope for even a modest high season and derail Thailand's emergence from recession... :)

Hopefully it won't come to that and Thailand is 'permitted' to have some stability, regain her footing as economic worries ease, enjoy a modest high season and yes, please call elections, by year-end or soon thereafter.

Personally I dislike coups, airport closures and riots but colour it any way one likes, I'm simply hoping 'Thailand' wins this time... :D

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I don't get it. The BKP has an article today that says there is no problem with the "Reds" having their gathering as long as it's peaceful, and told them so. Is there a problem with the "peaceful" part with the "Reds"??

I will try and keep it simple. Under the ISA law a gathering of any crowd is illegal.

The protest would therefore be Illegal.

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And now the gov't will be busy cancelling this ISA and getting a new one in place. Hope they have some time to get some real work done.

That is part of the strategy of the reds to thwart government functioning. The yellows also used that against the Somchai and Samak adnministrations and Thaksin's earlier. The impact has ben different. Note the budget bill just got voted through. This is huge as it the bureacrats can now start spending it which will help government. The PAD were always trying to thwart budget bills too.

If one wanted to be cynical one could argue that with the passage of the budget bill the rally was always going to be cancelled. If the vote had been manouvered to Monday or later as PTP wanted, a surrounding of government house could have left the government in the very precarious position of not being able to pass the budget. No Thai government has ever survived that.

Thank you for posting about examples of the government functioning, and doing quite well given the trying situations. They have managed to do lots of actual work, unlike the stagnant non-functioning governments of Samak and Somchai.

It also puts posts like the following in proper perspective by providing concrete examples that completely contradict its non-factual declarations.

And now the gov't will be busy cancelling this ISA and getting a new one in place. Hope they have some time to get some real work done.

So they can get back to posting news about where Thaksin is and what his color of passport is this week, and maybe spend some more days to deny something? There will of course be found time for some white uniform posing, very nice pictures for the press that is.

Well, as long as noone get in the way of Khun Farangs Singha and beach visit what is effectively martial law is 100% called for and ok...

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So this creates a situation whereby the Government is being positioned and characterized as actively suppressing a political movement which represents a large majority in the country.

Red shirt supporters? Large majority? No, absolutely not. Polling has shown most Thais are not pro red OR pro yellow. They want peace and progress and STABILITY without all this color silliness. You lot are indeed more violent and thuggish though, I'll give you that. It is indeed ironic that Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai has devoled into Thai's hating Thai and worse.

I know a fairly wide circle of Thai people who are either government officials or businessmen, and almost all of them would agree that Thaksin, despite his many faults, offered the "least worst" option for progressing the country towards first-world status. All agree that since he has gone, the country has gone backwards especially in terms of crime levels and police corruption.

They are not, however, Thaksin nor Red Shirt supporters and abhor the violence. They dont really have a voice although if pressed they would fall on the side of the Reds, but they dont agree with the hero-worshipping of Thaksin and dont want to see him back in power.

The only person I know who is a direct supporter of either side supports the Yellows and he is a high-ranking government official who lives in a huge house which he could not possibly have bought on his salary alone..

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So this creates a situation whereby the Government is being positioned and characterized as actively suppressing a political movement which represents a large majority in the country.

Red shirt supporters? Large majority? No, absolutely not. Polling has shown most Thais are not pro red OR pro yellow. They want peace and progress and STABILITY without all this color silliness. You lot are indeed more violent and thuggish though, I'll give you that. It is indeed ironic that Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai has devoled into Thai's hating Thai and worse.

I know a fairly wide circle of Thai people who are either government officials or businessmen, and almost all of them would agree that Thaksin, despite his many faults, offered the "least worst" option for progressing the country towards first-world status. All agree that since he has gone, the country has gone backwards especially in terms of crime levels and police corruption.

They are not, however, Thaksin nor Red Shirt supporters and abhor the violence. They dont really have a voice although if pressed they would fall on the side of the Reds, but they dont agree with the hero-worshipping of Thaksin and dont want to see him back in power.

The only person I know who is a direct supporter of either side supports the Yellows and he is a high-ranking government official who lives in a huge house which he could not possibly have bought on his salary alone..

The problem with that is that most people dont regard human rights a spart of their vision of first world status. It is more about economic issues with a blind eye turned to the other stuff, a kind of Singapore with even worse human rights and probably without the clean streets. Of course Thaksin's reord on human rights was less first world than any other Thai leaders in decades.

Therer are well intentioned people on all sides of this divide for sure and also a lot who dont really like any of them.

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I don't get it. The BKP has an article today that says there is no problem with the "Reds" having their gathering as long as it's peaceful, and told them so. Is there a problem with the "peaceful" part with the "Reds"??

I will try and keep it simple. Under the ISA law a gathering of any crowd is illegal.

The protest would therefore be Illegal.

Thank you "monkfish" for keeping it simple.

Bangkok Post, today (Sat, Aug. 29, 2009) Front page. "The government is not prohibiting the rally but it is barring any attempt to lay siege to Government House."

Not simple enough ????

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So this creates a situation whereby the Government is being positioned and characterized as actively suppressing a political movement which represents a large majority in the country.

Red shirt supporters? Large majority? No, absolutely not. Polling has shown most Thais are not pro red OR pro yellow. They want peace and progress and STABILITY without all this color silliness. You lot are indeed more violent and thuggish though, I'll give you that. It is indeed ironic that Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai has devoled into Thai's hating Thai and worse.

I know a fairly wide circle of Thai people who are either government officials or businessmen, and almost all of them would agree that Thaksin, despite his many faults, offered the "least worst" option for progressing the country towards first-world status. All agree that since he has gone, the country has gone backwards especially in terms of crime levels and police corruption.

They are not, however, Thaksin nor Red Shirt supporters and abhor the violence. They dont really have a voice although if pressed they would fall on the side of the Reds, but they dont agree with the hero-worshipping of Thaksin and dont want to see him back in power.

The only person I know who is a direct supporter of either side supports the Yellows and he is a high-ranking government official who lives in a huge house which he could not possibly have bought on his salary alone..

That's in complete contrast to my circle of friends who are mostly from typical middle class backgrounds (with at least two genuinely considered "high class" - others may be a performance :) ) and *all* utterly despise Thaksin and are pretty fed up with the whole sponsored red-shirt performances, including this weekend.

But that's just my experience.

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There were reports in some media and on other threads about a divide between different factions of the red shirts. Any speculation about this playing a part in the decision to postpone the rally? Probably not the main reason, but I wonder if it was of any importance.

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The irony runs thick in this thread.

Maybe if as soon as they protest the Red Shirts weren't met by government faction sponsored "Blue shirts" or fake "Sala daeng Residents" armed with talkie walkies, metal bars and guns that charge at them it wouldn't degenerate into violence.

Also amusing to see that those who supported a group who stormed an international airport and found it "good fun" are so outraged at a broken hotel door ::2 cents::

:):D

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Vindication for imposing the security measures. Obviously the reds want a violent revolution and they realized they were not ready to resist the new security measures. They could have had a PEACEFUL rally. That is clearly not what they wanted. Kudos to Abhisit for restraint before, but increased resistance in view of the reality of what these reds are REALLY all about (and it ain't democracy).

I disagree , you fool !

Of course they want a peaceful rally, but they realise that they are being 'set up' with all those security troops.

It is obvious that there will be some bad buggers seeded into the crowd to cause trouble, this will bring in the security and bingo! just what the government are looking for..........................WAKE UP! the Redshirts have.

You have been out maneouvered again! :)

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Is Thailand still advertising itself as a democracy? What a joke. But the idea that the cronies who run Thailand have anything to do with democratic rule has always been laughable.

Agreed, it isn't a real democracy here. However, surrendering to a red mob who want to install a latter day Thai Mussolini is another step in the wrong direction.

hear hear

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Is Thailand still advertising itself as a democracy? What a joke. But the idea that the cronies who run Thailand have anything to do with democratic rule has always been laughable.

Agreed, it isn't a real democracy here. However, surrendering to a red mob who want to install a latter day Thai Mussolini is another step in the wrong direction.

hear hear

You do not really know your history well. Mussolini's black shirted people can be compared to the BLUE shirted (Newin/Suthep) gang. Not to the yellow or red shirts. By the way Thailand is a authoritarian police state. Thailand has nothing in common with a democracy. Suthep is applying for the role of "Dear Leader", but we have had more Suthep's in the past. just like Abhisit is a joke as PM (his bioss is indeed Sutheo) we have had Chuan (Boss; Sanan) and Banharn and Chavalit (Boss: Sanoh).

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Perhaps they thought they displaying splits in the red camp and without direct Thaksin blessing the rally would be counterproductive.

Kwanchai and his Udon orks said they were not coming, maybe other provincial leaders thought it was a waste of money, too. Then there's a matter of Jakrapob vs Three Stooges split that looks too ideological for comfort.

What if Thaksin wasn't enthusiastic about a phone in for the rally he didn't want?

All that coupled with security force in place to prevent any march on the govt house, and it's better to postpone the rally then risk getting into trouble without sufficient support.

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Bangkok Poll reports survey on ISA impact, UDD rally

BANGKOK, 28 August 2009 (NNT) – The Bangkok University Research Institute (Bangkok Poll) has reported a survey among Bangkok people on the enforcement of Internal Security Act (ISA) and the rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

48.4% of respondents expressed concern about the current political situation. 40.4% of respondents said they were unsure if the ISA enforcement by the Government in the Dusit district area would be beneficial or harmful while 37.8% believed the ISA would surely cause negative impacts.

As for the most concerning issues among people from the upcoming UDD rally on 30 August and the ISA, 36% of respondents deemed economic and investment sectors would be affected. 28.3% of respondents said they were worried about violence incited by the third party.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255208280016

Could have been a good reason to call it off.

Who is the 3rd Party?

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Is Thailand still advertising itself as a democracy? What a joke. But the idea that the cronies who run Thailand have anything to do with democratic rule has always been laughable.

Can you explain that?

What isn't democratic?

Fou you the question would be easier formulated by ... whats democratic in Thailand... easy answer.. nearly nothing! :)

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