I'm Short Crude Oil!

[Harmonica]

And anticipating further attacks from my brethren, at least let it not be said that I am irresponsible and don't care about protecting mine and others' profits:

Place a sturdy, fortresslike STOP @ 56.5.

Do not alter this STOP until the market has moved below $54.3

We are still in highly treacherous waters and the slightest mistake can cost us dearly -- just one look at my TG's face when she sees what I'm doing is enough to remind me that there are people who depend on me and I can't let them get hurt! ...... my adrenalin rush notwithstanding!

[Harmonica]

Hehehehe!    Crude down again!  SHORT thriving!  Almost $3.00 drop since Monday! 

Look Ma, most traders worldwide would give their left (and right nuts) to make a call like this, but what do I get?  Attacks when I'm wrong or off and NOT a word when I'm right.  

Observe the turn on "high probability for Monday" as stated on Sunday.

 

Harm... Did you close the position and take the profit? If so, you have my congratulations. Otherwise, this is still early for applause. I didn't read this thread carefully... is this a long term position you're taking or not?

Read the post below yours (and above this) -- the position is still open but a STOP almost guarantees I will walk away with a profit if the market turns against me.

I really do believe that we are at a historic long-term TOP -- I am trading this TOP until I feel secure that the TOP is definitely in place and that its all downhill from there onwards. I am not yet certain that we will not make another new HIGH -- therefore the trading. Later, when sure it will be just one entry and then one exit @ around 28+ and so on -- just medium-term to LT holds.

[ArtfulD]

Well I think by the time oil is that bad off - we will all be buried or close to it.

Reasons not to worry:

1. Alternative fuel sources - Hydrogen or Fuel Cells

2. Technological advances

3. World travel will become cheaper not more expensive

BTW Oil will drop dramatically sooner rather than later!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thing is hydrogen and fuel cells are energy carriers, not sources. We dont have a viable source of hydrogen (it needs power to take it out of water and the efficiancy is not good), and fuel cells are just advanced batteries, thus need the power to come from somewhere to charge them. And air carriers have already had to add fuel surchargees to the costs.

One thing im holding out some hope in is the methane hydrates as I mentioned in my post further up....seems to be a lot of investment and research going into mining there, be great to use those as a fuel source and keep oil for manufacturing.

[jaidam]

Hehehehehe, 

No, this has nothing to do with my post above, about the Crude Oil surplus (although it certainly helps sentiment -- mine, that is!  

The odds are exceedingly high that the SHORT  opportunity on Crude Oil Futures will materialize this coming week.

Highly likely for tomorrow, Monday.

This is a purely TECHNICAL call! 

If it shows up, I'll be in like Flint.  I've been waiting for this for quite some time, especially after it was becoming increasingly apparent that to go LONG would cause me more stress!  

Wish me luck!

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hehehehe! Crude down again! SHORT thriving! Almost $3.00 drop since Monday!

Look Ma, most traders worldwide would give their left (and right nuts) to make a call like this, but what do I get? Attacks when I'm wrong or off and NOT a word when I'm right.

Observe the turn on "high probability for Monday" as stated on Sunday.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

holding right hand in a circular shape and shaking it when reading quoted post.

That and well done harmonica on what would seem a nice trade.Do let us know when you close.

[britmaveric]

Toyota is testing a hydrogen vehicle prototype - fueled from water. (saw a report on this last week)

My whole point I dont think the situation as bleak as the sort who keep telling us the sky is falling. This group is responsible for pushing up world oil prices.

[ArtfulD]

Hehehehe!    Crude down again!  SHORT thriving!  Almost $3.00 drop since Monday! 

Look Ma, most traders worldwide would give their left (and right nuts) to make a call like this, but what do I get?  Attacks when I'm wrong or off and NOT a word when I'm right. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nice trade

[Harmonica]

Hehehehehe, 

No, this has nothing to do with my post above, about the Crude Oil surplus (although it certainly helps sentiment -- mine, that is!  

The odds are exceedingly high that the SHORT  opportunity on Crude Oil Futures will materialize this coming week.

Highly likely for tomorrow, Monday.

This is a purely TECHNICAL call! 

If it shows up, I'll be in like Flint.  I've been waiting for this for quite some time, especially after it was becoming increasingly apparent that to go LONG would cause me more stress!  

Wish me luck!

Hehehehe! Crude down again! SHORT thriving! Almost $3.00 drop since Monday!

Look Ma, most traders worldwide would give their left (and right nuts) to make a call like this, but what do I get? Attacks when I'm wrong or off and NOT a word when I'm right.

Observe the turn on "high probability for Monday" as stated on Sunday.

holding right hand in a circular shape and shaking it when reading quoted post.

That and well done harmonica on what would seem a nice trade.Do let us know when you close.

Restrain yourself jaidam, there are minors & mods here; you're going to scandalize them!

Thanks!

[Harmonica]

Thanks amigos -- much obliged!

Instructions:

Keep your eye on the ball as the market continues to move south in our favor -- this is not the time to get cocky as she can humble us all in a hearbeat! Stay focused and lower your STOPLOSS lines as we continue to rake in some sizeable, glistening profits .....

Move STOP down to 54.3

Then, if you observe that things continue to head our way and the market is heading lower and stays below $53, lower your STOPLOSS line to $53.5

[fxm87]

But this one was rising & I caught it just as it completed its rise and started its fall;  or so it seems anyway.  We'll see. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah-ha! But that's only from your frame of reference! From the knife's perspective it was *you* who were falling then started to rise!

[Harmonica]

But this one was rising & I caught it just as it completed its rise and started its fall;  or so it seems anyway.  We'll see.  

Ah-ha! But that's only from your frame of reference! From the knife's perspective it was *you* who were falling then started to rise!

That is both deep & profound!

[Harmonica]

Thanks amigos -- much obliged! 

Instructions:

Keep your eye on the ball as the market continues to move south in our favor -- this is not the time to get cocky as she can humble us all in a hearbeat!  Stay focused and lower your STOPLOSS lines as we continue to rake in some sizeable, glistening profits .....

Move  STOP down to 54.3

Then,  if you observe that things continue to head our way and the market is heading lower and stays below $53,  lower your STOPLOSS line to $53.5

   

--------------------------------------------------

Position closed and gain banked ! The play is now terminated! Its been a good run. In fact, quite a whopper!

No plans to go LONG or SHORT at the moment. Will review situation later!

Notes: Momentum was indicating that Crude would bust thru' the uptrendline (shown in chart below) and keep falling -- this is my reason for NOT closing out my SHORT @ around $52.1-52.4. There was a good possibility that the trendline would break. There is the beginning of a support structure starting at 52.20 and extending down to a core level of about 49.2 -- that is where I would have closed my SHORT.

But the market closed me out at 53.5 !

No point in crying over the missed $1 in additional profit by not closing out at the trendline. -- OK, just a little, then!

It could go lower but then again it could rebound. The odds are not in my favor at the moment. So I'm staying out for now.

[Harmonica]

Hey, I'm laughing at myself, OK? Here's why:

This quote is from my own post directly above this one:

>>>>>> Notes: Momentum was indicating that Crude would bust thru' the uptrendline (shown in chart below) and keep falling -- this is my reason for NOT closing out my SHORT @ around $52.1-52.4. There was a good possibility that the trendline would break. There is the beginning of a support structure starting at 52.20 and extending down to a core level of about 49.2 -- that is where I would have closed my SHORT. <<<<<<<<<<<

And what happens. My analysis was correct and Crude Oil did bust the trendline and close below it and is now @ 50 already.

But I'm not in the market.

Hehehehehe, what about the fellas yelling and screaming about my call to $10?

We're only $40 away! Hehehhehehehe

[Harmonica]

Here's the trendline break!!!

[Harmonica]

Adios amigos -- last post!

Will dig up this thread in the future to evaluate my call.

So here then is a more detailed call:

We go down to about $40 first.

Then there is a high probability of retesting the $60+ level for the last time in a decade.

Regardless, we then go down to the $10-20 range (estimated arrival in 2007)

[Harmonica]

Adios amigos -- last post!

Will dig up this thread in the future to evaluate my call.

So here then is a more detailed call:

We go down to about $40 first.

Then there is a high probability of retesting the $60+ level for the last time in a decade.

Regardless,  we then  go down to the $10-20 range (estimated arrival in 2007)

Visit #1:

Crude at approx. $47

Well on its way to my first target of $40+ thereabouts -- then high probability of retesting previous high, then rapid descent southbound. If it stops before getting to $40, I will catch that and go LONG. I won't miss it; I have her number now!

Right on target!

And the experts were saying what? Crude going to $100, $105; some even said $250.

Friendly critics are always welcome -- to them, I wish you could join me.

And to that moron Maitembrot from the Chiang Mai forum -- come forth now, dummy!

God, do I love it so!

Adios!

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Adios and good luck Khun Richman

[Harmonica]

Adios and good luck Khun Richman

Doc, take a break from the operating room and get a handle on your available funds -- glorious historical opportunity in the making in Crude Oil.

What do I mean?

A final TOP is being carved out now. Don't know where it will end -- $60? A bit higher? Then when it is in place, we are going down for good.

Come on Doc -- now's your chance.

[Harmonica]

Adios amigos -- last post!

Will dig up this thread in the future to evaluate my call.

So here then is a more detailed call:

We go down to about $40 first.

Then there is a high probability of retesting the $60+ level for the last time in a decade.

Regardless,  we then  go down to the $10-20 range (estimated arrival in 2007)

Visit #1:

Crude at approx. $47

Well on its way to my first target of $40+ thereabouts -- then high probability of retesting previous high, then rapid descent southbound. If it stops before getting to $40, I will catch that and go LONG. I won't miss it; I have her number now!

Right on target!

And the experts were saying what? Crude going to $100, $105; some even said $250.

Friendly critics are always welcome -- to them, I wish you could join me.

And to that moron Maitembrot from the Chiang Mai forum -- come forth now, dummy!

God, do I love it so!

Adios!

OK, so we went down to 46. My call was to 40+. I won't split hairs -- admit to being a bit off the target here as I was expecting the neighborhood of 42. But hey, it soy-tenly wasn't going towards $250 now, was it?

No for the 2nd part -- we are going up to retest the high to around 60+. On target so far, OK?

Then its down to Argentina @ 10-20.

Let's wait and see. OK?

[Harmonica]

>>>>>> OK, so we went down to 46. My call was to 40+. I won't split hairs -- admit to being a bit off the target here as I was expecting the neighborhood of 42. But hey, it soy-tenly wasn't going towards $250 now, was it?

No for the 2nd part -- we are going up to retest the high to around 60+. On target so far, OK?

Then its down to Argentina @ 10-20.

Let's wait and see. OK? <<<<<<<<<<<<

$60 accomplished and threatening $60+.

So, not even a kiss, cuddle or fondle?

[meom]

>>>>>>  OK, so we went down to 46. My call was to 40+. I won't split hairs -- admit to being a bit off the target here as I was expecting the neighborhood of 42. But hey, it soy-tenly wasn't going towards $250 now, was it?

No for the 2nd part -- we are going up to retest the high to around 60+. On target so far, OK?

Then its down to Argentina @ 10-20.

Let's wait and see. OK?  <<<<<<<<<<<<

 

$60 accomplished and threatening $60+. 

So,  not even a kiss, cuddle or fondle?   

There's some non-opec related fields coming on stream in 2007-2008 which might depress oil prices to below 30 for a while due to increased supply.

On the other hand opec still has some clout so would you not expect them to minimise output when the price falls below 30?

[ace]

Good calls!

How do you get the timing right though, charts? Instinct?

I've made some good calls recently (selling £/$ at 1.91, buying Sainsburies (FTSE)) but always seem to mis-time and bust out my stop b4 hitting my limit. Bit discouraging really, only small stakes though while I learn the rules of the game.

Also, what's the opinion on the impact of the Iranian election result? My 2p (it's about all I can afford a point these days :-) says markets down Monday.

[meom]

Markets might be down by monday but I don't think that the Iranian elections have anything to do with it. Whoever is in power there needs the cash that oil & gas provide.

Not sure the morons on Wallstreet would fall for that though.

[sendbaht]

Cover your shorts Harmonica. I'll be long buying and holding CVX.

Owned it for years.

Do like your style though. Very cool.

[Harmonica]

Cover your shorts Harmonica. I'll be long buying and holding CVX.

Owned it for years.

Do like your style though. Very cool.

Thanks, sendbaht.

I am NOT short!

Waiting for a sign of weakness in this last climb to 60+ -- none yet!

[Harmonica]

Cover your shorts Harmonica. I'll be long buying and holding CVX.

Owned it for years.

Do like your style though. Very cool.

Regarding CVX, well done.

But, you stated you are planning to go LONG again. When?

Would you like a pointer or two on the technical front -- as I see it, of course?

[Harmonica]

Good calls!

How do you get the timing right though, charts? Instinct?

I've made some good calls recently (selling £/$ at 1.91, buying Sainsburies (FTSE)) but always seem to mis-time and bust out my stop b4 hitting my limit. Bit discouraging really, only small stakes though while I learn the rules of the game.

Also, what's the opinion on the impact of the Iranian election result? My 2p (it's about all I can afford a point these days :-) says markets down Monday.

Ace, instinct has only a little to do with it. Simply stated, the chart is it! But its a combination of charts and several features and factors therein which coalesce into overwhelming evidence that a "probable" move is going to occur. We are dealing in probabilities, not certainties. Tech. Analysis is not a science -- there is considerable room for judgement and commonsense.

You seem to be on the right track and it is well worth it to learn the rules of the game slowly and thoroughly before placing capital at risk. Five years to get in shape is not an unreasonable time period and I know some pros who might consider even that too short.

Patience is a virtue in life, but in the markets it is a fulcum and especially so in a BEAR market.

Apologies for the lecture.

[Harmonica]

Good calls!

How do you get the timing right though, charts? Instinct?

I've made some good calls recently (selling £/$ at 1.91, buying Sainsburies (FTSE)) but always seem to mis-time and bust out my stop b4 hitting my limit. Bit discouraging really, only small stakes though while I learn the rules of the game.

Also, what's the opinion on the impact of the Iranian election result? My 2p (it's about all I can afford a point these days :-) says markets down Monday.

Iranian election? Already figured in and discounted by the participants at large, worldwide.

All events, except acts of God, Alan Greenspan, Thaivisa and Mike Tyson -- are already figured into and dscounted by the markets instantaneously at any given moment in time.

Acts of God, etc., appear to be the cause but they are not and are quickly discounted and adjustments made within a very short period of time.

Events occur in line with the existing TREND of Mass Social Mood -- a collective sentiment, +ve or -ve.

Phew! I can't believe I just said all that.

[ace]

Iranian election?  Already figured in and discounted by the participants at large, worldwide.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think the result was expected, the 2nd ballot was meant to bring out more liberals for Rafsanjani, not more hardliners.

However, you're right, it didn't have a great effect on the market, though it did close slightly down (DOW). And my sell, yet again, busted out my stop on an uptick before my limit reached.

What have I learnt? If I'm gonna trade (spreads) I need to be able to keep a beady on the prices at all times. And timing, in trading as well as in life in general, is everything.

Thanks for the feedback,

Ace

[Harmonica]

OK amigos, here's the deal -- Crude Oil futures have dropped $3+ in 2 days and I have NOT called a SHORT position.

Why?

Because I am NOT SHORT and neither am I currently LONG!

My name is Harmonica, not Abraham!

But I do believe that this is NOT yet the TOP -- this is my opinion at this moment, but its always possible that some Thai driving a motorbike will convince me that I'm wrong!

The heat is very hot, said one genius to me the other day. He was Italian, not Thai.

[Harmonica]

OK amigos, here's the deal -- Crude Oil futures have dropped $3+ in 2 days and I have NOT  called a SHORT position.

Why?

Because I am NOT  SHORT and neither am I currently LONG!

My name is Harmonica, not Abraham! 

But I do believe that this is NOT yet the TOP -- this is my opinion at this moment, but its always possible that some Thai driving a motorbike will convince me that I'm wrong!

The heat is very hot, said one genius to me the other day.  He was Italian, not Thai.

OK guys, was I correct not to go SHORT on June 27th? ..... sendbaht, see what I mean?

Actually one could say that it is an easy call because only a fool would be considering going SHORT when almost ALL experts and even the Public are expecting Crude to reach $100-160 and some have even been heard to mention numbers as high as 250.

Whatever! I don't mind.

We've now taken out the June 27th top and are at a new HIGH!

I'm watching and still intend to call the SHORT correctly! Wish me luck!

---------

On a different note, never mind Technical Analysis and what my calls on the subject of Crude Oil have been -- let's talk about how this is hurting our host country, my beloved Thailand.

The subsidies are devastating Thailand's reserves and the Govt. is cracking under the strain.

I saw a program on CNBC last night, anchored by Grace Phan from Singapore wherein 3 guests were voicing their criticism of Mr. T and expounding on the negative fallout in the current economic climate.

Thailand imports 80% (?) of its Crude requirements and the full impact on diesel is yet to occur.

If there is a God out there, and I believe there is, notwithstanding the possibility that he might have abandoned us a long time ago due to our recalcitrance, you are hereby beseeched to step up to the plate and send Crude Oil hurtling down towards oblivion immediately!

As an aside, Lord, kindly send me a message just prior to your decapitating Crude, so I can make a correct call and profit handsomely!