I'm Short Crude Oil!

[Harmonica]

Take a good look at this destroyer of civilizations -- has the Lord sent the angel of Mercy to intercede?

[Harmonica]

Oil prices went on a wild ride, dealing not only with the fallout from the explosions, but the threat of a hurricane and U.S. inventory data. After a fall of as much as $4 a barrel, light sweet crude closed down just 55 cents at $60.73.

The Devil tempted me ravenously yesterday, but I declined to play. I'm still sidelined!

[Harmonica]

The Devil & his coterie have perpetrated a nasty trick on me -- he couldn't vanquish me alone, so he dived further and deeper into the dark side, where he met up with the Evil One. They've apparently spat up a terrible curse and assaulted me viciously over the last 4 days when Crude Oil dropped $4.25 -- surely, said they, a few days ago, in subterranean whispers of deceit, now is the time to go SHORT!

I'm hurting amigos, but mostly its my pride for, what if they're right? Then I've missed the TOP by $4 --

I'm still sidelined and have not taken any action.

[Firefan]

My 2 (Euro) cents: this time it IS different when we are talking oil - supply and demand - and even a slightly reduced demand from a slight cooling down of the China development will not stop that.

No number of hybrid cars in US/EU will stop the increased global demand. Cheers!

[Harmonica]

The Devil & his coterie have perpetrated a nasty trick on me -- he couldn't vanquish me alone, so he dived further and deeper into the dark side, where he met up with the Evil One.  They've apparently spat up a terrible curse and assaulted me viciously over the last 4 days when Crude Oil dropped $4.25 -- surely, said they, a few days ago, in subterranean whispers of deceit, now is the time to go SHORT!

I'm hurting amigos, but mostly its my pride for, what if they're right?  Then I've missed the TOP by $4 -- 

I'm still sidelined and have not taken any action.

Hehehehe

Correct so far amigos -- the Devil failed miserably twice to get me to go SHORT!

It was tough to resisit -- as my preious posts here clearly show, he succeeded in causing me great distress; but he did not win. I held my ground, despite the recent $6 drop .

The red arrows #1 and #2 show where he tempted me!

OK then, now that we have just taken out the previous peak with a fresh new high @ approx. $62, I'm back in the ballgame and ready to attempt calling the turn -- I think we are going up for the LAST TIME in history!

Stay tuned!

[Firefan]

"-- I think we are going up for the LAST TIME in history!"

So you are saying that oil will NEVER break $62 again? What gives you that idea?

Also; what vehicle do you use to actually go long/short oil?

I am currently (long) in the Pimco commodities fund PCRIX.

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

"-- I think we are going up for the LAST TIME in history!"

So you are saying that oil will NEVER break $62 again? What gives you that idea?

Also; what vehicle do you use to actually go long/short oil?

I am currently (long) in the Pimco commodities fund PCRIX.

Cheers!

Jag kunde talar jattefin svenska forut. Djavla utlannigar.

Very rusty as you can see, but still understand 90% when its spoken to me.

We went above $62 and we could go higher -- regardless, whenerever it ends, 63,64 or wherever; this is the last trip northbound! That's what I mean.

[~G~]

I think we are going up for the LAST TIME in history!

Harmonica, History is quite a big word, isn't it?

[Harmonica]

"-- I think we are going up for the LAST TIME in history!"

So you are saying that oil will NEVER break $62 again? What gives you that idea?

Also; what vehicle do you use to actually go long/short oil?

I am currently (long) in the Pimco commodities fund PCRIX.

Cheers!

Open an account with a Futures broker or buy/sell oil funds or oil stocks or oil service stocks.

If you have no experience with Futures, stay away from them -- do not do it! Learning curve is steep and the path fraught with traps and peril.

[Firefan]

Not bad Swedish!

I believe that oil prices (in the long run) can only go one way; up. Us living here in Asia see the growing demand every day. The average Chinese and Indian use 1 barrel of oil/year. In the Western world we use about 25 barrels!

Cheers!

[Firefan]

I am with you on commodities futures! Most lose - but a few do win!

PCRIX is enough for me there, but I have before used the International (stock) ETF XLE for some oil stock exposure. Always long though...

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

Not bad Swedish!

I believe that oil prices (in the long run) can only go one way; up. Us living here in Asia see the growing demand every day. The average Chinese and Indian use 1 barrel of oil/year. In the Western world we use about 25 barrels!

Cheers!

Then accept my challenge -- an open challenge to all here at Thaivisa & every expert worldwide. An OPEN challenge!

If I'm wrong it will be plainly visible via Thaivisa's date & time stamp on all posts! Dig?

Your reasons for thinking that Crude Oil will go up are not without considerable agreement from the "expert" community. Some have said that even $100 is too low and that we could easily see $250.

You can come up with a zillion fundamental reasons -- and I'm sure that "G", a renowned scientist in his own right, can add another quadrillion reasons.

But I'm saying you are ALL wrong! OK?

Let the games begin! Regards to you for playing.

[jaidam]

Hi Harmonica,

Dont forget to tell us when you do actually go short again.

I'd hate to think that you have shorted secretly only to panic and buy back without your buddies on Thaivisa knowing...

Regards from the longs, and good luck.

[Firefan]

Fine with me Harmonica.

Only issue is that we might not disagree that much. I say that in the LONG run supply/demand will ensure oil goes up. That does not leave out shorter term oppurtunities for an active trader like you.

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

Hi Harmonica,

Dont forget to tell us when you do actually go short again.

  I'd hate to think that you have shorted secretly only to panic and buy back without your buddies on Thaivisa knowing...

Regards from the longs, and good luck.

The entry, the STOP & the exit if the STOP(s) is/are triggered.

Even if it takes 2-3 entries to get it right, they will all have the TV date/time stamp and be readily visible here.

Thanks for stating your position unequivocally. Much appreciated.

Let the games begin!

[Harmonica]

Fine with me Harmonica.

Only issue is that we might not disagree that much. I say that in the LONG run supply/demand will ensure oil goes up. That does not leave out shorter term oppurtunities for an active trader like you.

Cheers!

That is a misunderstanding of my premise & postulate, Firefan.

Let me clarify -- after this run has completed to say 63, 64 or whatever and Crude Oil then turns down, it will be the last time in at least 20+ years that it will have an opportunity to attain the same height or anywhere close.

It will most likely hover in the area of $10-20 for a long, long time.

Of course the descent to $10 will take place in stages and yes there will be rallies -- but I will NOT be playing the rallies. I'll be staying with the dominant trend and re-enter SHORT when rallies are completed.

Cash winnings withdrawn at each leg of the descent will be pumped into the currency market -- no more stock market after the BEAR takes hold again -- for obvious reasons.

Clear?

[ProThaiExpat]

While I not with you on your use of the word history, since that is a word to describe only the past, Harmonica I do agree with you that we are fairly close to the top and there will be a long down spiral in prices to about low fifties by the end of the year and then even lower next year but I would say long term the low will be in the 30's.

I have felt the current price is a result of some very large players bidding up the price for specualtive reasons. What will drive them out of the process I don't know, but when they do stop speculating, it will sure be some downtrend. Hope you catch it, but I would say that the repeated attemtps to best the 62 area is indicative possibly of a near top situaltion.

Your charts seem to be indicating that to you. Why not just go short at 62 and enjoy the ride even if it continues upward for a couple bucks. Is it so important to catch the top when your looking for a twenty dollar or more ball in prices from about this level?

[Firefan]

"Clear?"

Crystal. So call the top please....

[Harmonica]

While I not with you on your use of the word history, since that is a word to describe only the past, Harmonica  I do agree with you that we are fairly close to the top and there will be a long down spiral in prices to about low fifties by the end of the year and then even lower next year but I would say long term the low will be in the 30's. 

I have felt the current price is a result of some very large players bidding up the price for specualtive reasons.  What will drive them out of the process I don't know, but when they do stop speculating, it will sure be some downtrend.  Hope you catch it, but I would say that the repeated attemtps to best the 62 area is indicative possibly of a near top situaltion.

Your charts seem to be indicating that to you.  Why not just go short at 62 and enjoy the ride even if it continues upward for a couple bucks.  Is it so important to catch the top when your looking for a twenty dollar or more ball in prices from about this level?

You're right about the incorrect usage of the word "history" in this context -- I should have added the word "hindsight" w.r.t. year 2020. From that perspective everything prior would be "history"

Yes PTE, there is considerable trouble in the $62 area -- if correct in calling a SHORT, yes the profits will be considerable and consequently it is not really smart to crib about a couple bucks if the market moves north against me for a while.

However it is not that simple. I don't want to just throw up a prayer -- I want some reasonably sound basis for acting. Then I can act with solid conviction and precision.

Classical Technical Analysis, which happens to be my forte, is NOT really providing much in the way of convincing probabilities just yet -- neither is ARC methodology. Most other methods are so ambiguous that pondering them just leaves one with a headache.

I am therefore left with the only workable method in such a minefield -- Elliottwave Analysis. This methodology is even less of a science than Classical TA & at the current juncture there are at least 3 possible alternate wave counts.

Charles Basetti, the foremost classical technician on the planet (does not use elliottwave) said this the other day, "Crude Oil is only for intrepid traders!"

I will add "foolish" to "intrepid" in his comment.

At least we can agree on this: we are close to a major TOP -- so close in fact that in my dreams, I can smell it!

What I'm waiting for is to be able to smell it in a conscious state.

God help me!

[~G~]

64.11 today

[~G~]

Over 66 today.

[simcity]

They restrain him with a straight jacket! the knife can not go to the wound.

[jaidam]

I'm wondering what date our friend Harmonica's funeral will be.Surely its time for Harmy to admit making a howling misjudgement in calling a short on crude down to $10 US. In the 6 months or so since his famous original statement the price of oil has steadily climbed up to the mid 60's and with the continuing terror attacks and also the uncertainty of viable crude stocks the general trend will be almost certainly more of the same -albeit with brief corrections.At present Harmy is 660% incorrect.

Even if Harmy sticks to his short I am today calling a victory for us oil longs.Pats on the back all round chaps.Well done.

Perhaps as pennance Harmonica will change his moiker to "GobIron"- the less than flattering name for the mouth organ.

Harmonica, you have been brave and funny but ultimately wrong.

So long amigo.

[LivinLOS]

I would contend the same thing will apply to global deflation, high USD, 250 USD gold ounces, etc, over the long term..

[britmaveric]

Pure speculation and we all know what happens over the long term when commodities have over inflated prices...the bottom drops out. I think we are coming to the breaking point sooner rather than later.

[Harmonica]

Not bad Swedish!

I believe that oil prices (in the long run) can only go one way; up. Us living here in Asia see the growing demand every day. The average Chinese and Indian use 1 barrel of oil/year. In the Western world we use about 25 barrels!

Cheers!

Then accept my challenge -- an open challenge to all here at Thaivisa & every expert worldwide. An OPEN challenge!

If I'm wrong it will be plainly visible via Thaivisa's date & time stamp on all posts! Dig?

Your reasons for thinking that Crude Oil will go up are not without considerable agreement from the "expert" community. Some have said that even $100 is too low and that we could easily see $250.

You can come up with a zillion fundamental reasons -- and I'm sure that "G", a renowned scientist in his own right, can add another quadrillion reasons.

But I'm saying you are ALL wrong! OK?

Let the games begin! Regards to you for playing.

It is time! The game is now in motion!

SHORT call @ $66.3 .

Additional SHORTS to be placed @ $67.55 & $70.05 ... if there is a sudden last ditch spike!

STOPLOSS on the first order and any subsequent fills is at $70.45!

Might have to juggle positions around depending on how right/wrong the market says I am -- but I am IN .

[OxfordWill]

I stopped a long position on Tuesday on Brent Crude UK futures for october. Tidy profit at 66.1 from 64 a few days earlier.

Glad to see it plummet moments later to 64 post LSE close.

100 a barrel by November? I hope not.

[LivinLOS]

Nice of you to post that after a 4% pullback from its highs

[Firefan]

I agree with Livinloss; please confirm that your timestamp in above post matches a POSSIBLE short trade at the NYMEX (or whereever you do it). Cheers!

[LivinLOS]

Makes no difference in the long run.. For an investor rather than a trader oil will be (as I said early this year) at 80 USD at some point in 2006..

10 dollar a barrel oil.. 250 USD Gold oz.. not a prayer..