I'm Short Crude Oil!

[~G~]

I've closed a sizable position and will reconsider opening more SHORTS when the current support gives me less headaches.

What do I mean?

Intraday is showing a low of $59.85 with a long lower wick.  This is suggesting that the support structure is starting to "fire" some elasticity and might contain the drop.  There are some other factors that are giving me a headache.

5 fundamental cats got on CNBC and stated that Crude will go to $50..  These cats were the same guys who were previously calling for Crude to go to $100-200.  Even more troubling is that these cats were looking at me thru' the screen the way Jaidam and LivinLos do; with brotherly love and genuine affection.  This is not a good thing for me.  Further exacerbating the situation is the presence of the ubiquitous Firefan. 

It is not a happy scene to have fundamentalists agree with me, so I am going contrarian and being cautious.

My SHORT point of view has not changed; but I am protecting my hard work before Crude pulls a curveball on me short-term.

Adios! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica, you have mentioned more than once that you find this analysis of Oil harder and trickier than other indexes/currencies/commodities.

Why is it so, actually? Do you use the same tools for oil and currencies? Do you consider that the trends of some "goods" will be more easily reflected in the data, therefore allow tech. analysis to provide 80%, 90% or even more accurate predictions, while others will include more chaotic factors (e.g. Hurricans?!) not available in historical data and therefore will provide only 70%, 60%, or even 50% predictions?

And hey - this is a real question looking to understand tech. analysis better (just in case you want start the "fundamentalists" alarm )

[Harmonica]

I've closed a sizable position and will reconsider opening more SHORTS when the current support gives me less headaches.

What do I mean?

Intraday is showing a low of $59.85 with a long lower wick.  This is suggesting that the support structure is starting to "fire" some elasticity and might contain the drop.  There are some other factors that are giving me a headache.

5 fundamental cats got on CNBC and stated that Crude will go to $50..  These cats were the same guys who were previously calling for Crude to go to $100-200.  Even more troubling is that these cats were looking at me thru' the screen the way Jaidam and LivinLos do; with brotherly love and genuine affection.  This is not a good thing for me.  Further exacerbating the situation is the presence of the ubiquitous Firefan. 

It is not a happy scene to have fundamentalists agree with me, so I am going contrarian and being cautious.

My SHORT point of view has not changed; but I am protecting my hard work before Crude pulls a curveball on me short-term.

Adios! 

Harmonica, you have mentioned more than once that you find this analysis of Oil harder and trickier than other indexes/currencies/commodities.

Why is it so, actually? Do you use the same tools for oil and currencies? Do you consider that the trends of some "goods" will be more easily reflected in the data, therefore allow tech. analysis to provide 80%, 90% or even more accurate predictions, while others will include more chaotic factors (e.g. Hurricans?!) not available in historical data and therefore will provide only 70%, 60%, or even 50% predictions?

And hey - this is a real question looking to understand tech. analysis better (just in case you want start the "fundamentalists" alarm )

Currencies trend the best and are therefore my preferred place to be.

I'm getting out of the stock market completely and focusing only on currencies. Gold is a part of the package.

Crude Oil has been harder primarily because we have been in uncharted price territory. Furthermore, the entire runup in Crude has a very peculiar waveform. Can't say it is a relaxing thing to trade because it certainly is not.

Had lunch with a fundamental fellow from your country today. He told me Crude is going to $150; when he heard about my SHORT ventures, he got this sad, distant look in his eyes and promptly paid the bill for the both of us.

Closed at OP request

Edited October 22, 2005 by cdnvic