I'm Going Long - The Market

[wimpy]

Last night's action in the US markets was exactly what I have been waiting for. The market is signaling that it is now in an uptrend, and I will begin taking long positions in leading stocks as they break out of proper consolidations. Will be closing out my short position at the open tomorrow with a nice profit.

[unbiasbob]

a one day rally? We've seen these before. Inflation will keep this rally muted. No reason to buy now. If you must buy, pick up defensive issues like drug stocks. By all means short the crap out of goog at the open ($225)

[wimpy]

a one day rally? We've seen these before. Inflation will keep this rally muted. No reason to buy now. If you must buy, pick up defensive issues like drug stocks. By all means short the crap out of goog at the open ($225)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We shall see… In fact, we haven't seen a rally with these characteristics since October 27, 1994. You might note what took place following that day. FYI, the NASDAQ rallied 260 points over the next two months. My methodology has served me well over the years. I'll stick with it.

Actually, the rally began 4 days ago. Today was the confirmation I was looking for, indicating that this rally has a good chance of continuing. If I’m wrong I’ll soon be out with small losses.

I certainly wouldn't short Google, as I'm not a masochist. Google should have been bought two days ago as it broke above resistance at 195. Now it is a little too extended to be bought.

I only buy leading stocks, not defensive issues. If the leaders aren't performing, I go to cash or short.

Cheers.

[Khun Jean]

What happened in the past is no guarantee it will in the future.

It is even a required text on all brochures about investing. It should also be on any TA program.

I have seen many people use it with small money, it worked, then they are confident in their TA and go in big to loose it all. I worked many years for an company that sold TA products and realtime monitoring and analysis programs. At the moment these program signal a "trend" many times the next day the trend is over. We concluded that ourselves. You have to run analysis on all stocks to be able to tell that, popular stocks which trade in big volumes every day usually have longer trends.

Any methodology used is a gamble. If there was a good one everybody would use it and then it wont work anymore.

Markets not signal, people who use computer models signal.

Every trader i know has a methology that works great. Nobody loses money EVER.

I use a methology. Buy low, sell high. I still have to work on my timing though. But that served me well over the last 20 years too. I use mass psychology for my method. News is my source.

I know i am one of the few in my circles who uses both stocks and derivatives. Anybody who don't use derivatives misses out. Both in the extra profit it can make and the added insurance against bad timing.

Going short with put options is the real moneymaker. And if you know what you are doing contrary what is believed the risks are much smaller than if you only trade with stocks. But i don't have to tell that. anyone with a little experience and calculation capabilities knows that already.

My expertise is in Euronext, not the uncontrolled, unenforced, foresighted by powerfull people stock market in Thailand. (My opnion!)

BTW if i go short on something i would try to influence as many people as possible to help me make a profit. Internet forums are great for that.

So i wil tell them the complete opposite.

[wimpy]

What happened in the past is no guarantee it will in the future.

It is even a  required text on all brochures about investing. It should also be on any TA program.

I have seen many people use it with small money, it worked, then they are confident in their TA and go in big to loose it all. I worked many years for an company that sold TA products and realtime monitoring and analysis programs. At the moment these program signal a "trend" many times the next day the trend is over. We concluded that ourselves. You have to run analysis on all stocks to be able to tell that, popular stocks which trade in big volumes every day usually have longer trends.

Any methodology used is a gamble. If there was a good one everybody would use it and then it wont work anymore.

Markets not signal, people who use computer models signal.

Every trader i know has a methology that works great. Nobody loses money EVER.

I use a methology. Buy low, sell high. I still have to work on my timing though. But that served me well over the last 20 years too. I use mass psychology for my method. News is my source.

I know i am one of the few in my circles who uses both stocks and derivatives. Anybody who don't use derivatives misses out. Both in the extra profit it can make and the added insurance against bad timing.

Going short with put options is the real moneymaker. And if you know what you are doing contrary what is believed the risks are much smaller than if you only trade with stocks. But i don't have to tell that. anyone with a little experience and calculation capabilities knows that already.

My expertise is in Euronext, not the uncontrolled, unenforced, foresighted by powerfull people stock market in Thailand. (My opnion!)

BTW if i go short on something i would try to influence as many people as possible to help me make a profit. Internet forums are great for that.

So i wil tell them the complete opposite.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are correct, there are no guarantees. Never said there were. You place your bet, and take your chances.

I do not use any "program" to generate buy and sell signals. I simply analyze the daily price and volume patterns of the major indices. For individual buy candidates, I combine fundamental and technical elements. If you are familiar with the writings of Livermore, O’Neil, Darvas, and Loeb, you have an idea of what I do. I have been trading stocks for more than 20 years. For the past ten, it has been my sole occupation. Over that time, my methods have served me very well.

If your method works well for you, great! Differing opinions and methodologies are what make a market.

I would agree that any time you enter the markets, it is a gamble. That is why I only trade when I feel I have the best chance of winning. The most important element in what I do is risk control. Before ever placing an order, I always know where I will admit I am wrong, and exit the trade.

I lose money all the time. If you trade and claim you don't lose, you are a liar. The key is my losses are never more than 10% on any one trade; usually more like 5%. My gains are typically much more than that. I am often wrong, but I don't let my ego get in the way of admitting it. That is what keeps me from losing big.

I only trade in liquid US stocks, and doubt I would be able to influence the price action in any meaningful way. Regardless, I rarely talk about what I hold, but don’t mind talking about whether I am bullish or bearish.

Good luck.

[Khun Jean]

I lose money all the time. If you trade and claim you don't lose, you are a liar. The key is my losses are never more than 10% on any one trade; usually more like 5%. My gains are typically much more than that. I am often wrong, but I don't let my ego get in the way of admitting it. That is what keeps me from losing big.

That is THE key to make money on the stock market. I trade almost exclusively with share and option combinations. This can make your profit percentage better and your loss percentages smaller. Just a way of changing the odds slightly more into your favor.

[wimpy]

a one day rally? We've seen these before. Inflation will keep this rally muted. No reason to buy now. If you must buy, pick up defensive issues like drug stocks. By all means short the crap out of goog at the open ($225)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So Bob, how's that GOOG short working out for you?

Never short strength or buy weakness... unless you enjoy having your head handed to you.

[wimpy]

Bump.

I continue to be bullish since I made the call in April.

The long positions I have put on since then are all profitable; up between 5 and 20%. Handily outperforming the"market".

[samran]

An innocent question, but are all you folks American?

[xyz]

a one day rally? We've seen these before. Inflation will keep this rally muted. No reason to buy now. If you must buy, pick up defensive issues like drug stocks. By all means short the crap out of goog at the open ($225)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So Bob, how's that GOOG short working out for you?

Never short strength or buy weakness... unless you enjoy having your head handed to you.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't know what system you're using but you called it right back in April. DOW has been on an uptrend since then, about 6% in less than 2 months, which is a lot more than 5.25% per year I'm getting on CDs. NASDAQ was up more than 15% over the same period April - June.

Edited June 17, 2005 by xyz

[Heng]

Last night's action in the US markets was exactly what I have been waiting for.  The market is signaling that it is now in an uptrend, and I will begin taking long positions in leading stocks as they break out of proper consolidations.  Will be closing out my short position at the open tomorrow with a nice profit. 

Who do you trade with? I have accounts parked at etrade and ameritrade, but all cash with no holdings (not since the late 90's... back when my ameritrade account was still a datek online account). Considering taking up some positions myself on some "old" techs just for grins.

[wimpy]

Last night's action in the US markets was exactly what I have been waiting for.  The market is signaling that it is now in an uptrend, and I will begin taking long positions in leading stocks as they break out of proper consolidations.  Will be closing out my short position at the open tomorrow with a nice profit. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Who do you trade with? I have accounts parked at etrade and ameritrade, but all cash with no holdings (not since the late 90's... back when my ameritrade account was still a datek online account). Considering taking up some positions myself on some "old" techs just for grins.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like Interactive Brokers. It is geared for professional traders. Cheap and fast.

[aletta]

wimpy,what's your December 31st price for the Dow then?

[wimpy]

wimpy,what's your December 31st price for the Dow then?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't believe that anyone can consistently predict where a market is going to be six months down the road. I analyze the market on a daily basis. In late April the tone of the market changed, and I felt the odds favored it going higher. I could see that institutions were beginning to become net buyers rather than sellers. This was a subtle but important change from earlier this year.

Presently, the market continues to act well. When I start seeing signs of trouble, I will begin moving to cash. I haven't a clue when that will be. I will try to remember to post here when that time comes.

[xyz]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

[wimpy]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

[xyz]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I was only being facetious. You sound like a momemtum trader. I was a daytrader a while ago but I lost money -- it's hard to make money when the market is generally moving horizontally, as it has been for the last few years here in USA.

[kreon]

What happened in the past is no guarantee it will in the future.

It is even a  required text on all brochures about investing. It should also be on any TA program.

I have seen many people use it with small money, it worked, then they are confident in their TA and go in big to loose it all. I worked many years for an company that sold TA products and realtime monitoring and analysis programs. At the moment these program signal a "trend" many times the next day the trend is over. We concluded that ourselves. You have to run analysis on all stocks to be able to tell that, popular stocks which trade in big volumes every day usually have longer trends.

Any methodology used is a gamble. If there was a good one everybody would use it and then it wont work anymore.

Markets not signal, people who use computer models signal.

Every trader i know has a methology that works great. Nobody loses money EVER.

I use a methology. Buy low, sell high. I still have to work on my timing though. But that served me well over the last 20 years too. I use mass psychology for my method. News is my source.

I know i am one of the few in my circles who uses both stocks and derivatives. Anybody who don't use derivatives misses out. Both in the extra profit it can make and the added insurance against bad timing.

Going short with put options is the real moneymaker. And if you know what you are doing contrary what is believed the risks are much smaller than if you only trade with stocks. But i don't have to tell that. anyone with a little experience and calculation capabilities knows that already.

My expertise is in Euronext, not the uncontrolled, unenforced, foresighted by powerfull people stock market in Thailand. (My opnion!)

BTW if i go short on something i would try to influence as many people as possible to help me make a profit. Internet forums are great for that.

So i wil tell them the complete opposite.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And don't forget those 25% trailing stop losses, you'll need them!

Could this be it? June 17, 2005: the day the buying stopped. The crash is coming!

The cover story in the money pages of USA Today suggested a “recipe” for a

serious correction in real estate prices:

* Economic relapse

* Job losses

* Rising interest rates

* Excess supply (of new homes)…

Citing these as potential reasons for concern, the article suggested owners

of high priced real estate might want to take one of the following four

strategies and “cash out”:

- Sell high, buy low. Selling the pricey digs in high-cost markets, such as

New York and Los Angeles, and buying into a low-cost market…

- Sell the "empty nest." Just shipped your kids off to college and don't

need five bedrooms anymore? Consider downsizing…

- Sell to fund retirement. Planning to sell anyway over the next year or two

when you're done working? You might want to do it now and feather your nest

egg…

- Sell to avoid disaster. If you truly think it is a bubble and prices are on

the verge of collapse, get out now to avoid future regret…

Edited June 18, 2005 by kreon

[Harmonica]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

I was only being facetious. You sound like a momemtum trader. I was a daytrader a while ago but I lost money -- it's hard to make money when the market is generally moving horizontally, as it has been for the last few years here in USA.

You've got it backwards, xyz. Horizontal markets are a trader's paradise, a boon, a time to rake in the profits. Bad for trend followers and LT cats.

[xyz]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I was only being facetious. You sound like a momemtum trader. I was a daytrader a while ago but I lost money -- it's hard to make money when the market is generally moving horizontally, as it has been for the last few years here in USA.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You've got it backwards, xyz. Horizontal markets are a trader's paradise, a boon, a time to rake in the profits. Bad for trend followers and LT cats.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't tell me, you have been listening to a broker or something similar trying to drum up some business?

Edited June 20, 2005 by xyz

[Harmonica]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

I was only being facetious. You sound like a momemtum trader. I was a daytrader a while ago but I lost money -- it's hard to make money when the market is generally moving horizontally, as it has been for the last few years here in USA.

You've got it backwards, xyz. Horizontal markets are a trader's paradise, a boon, a time to rake in the profits. Bad for trend followers and LT cats.

Don't tell me, you have been listening to a broker or something similar trying to drum up some business?

I'm a step ahead of you there, Senior Sanchez -- I don't listen to anybody with a first name that starts with "broke" --- that rules out "brokers"

[xyz]

Senior Sanchez??? I'm gonna have to let you go -- trading in a horizontal market may have gotten to your brain.

Edited June 21, 2005 by xyz

[Harmonica]

Senior Sanchez??? I'm gonna have to let you go -- trading in a horizontal market may have gotten to your brain.

No Senior Sanchez, in the next post I'll fire a lightening bolt past your limited mental resources -- the magnetic field generated ought to do you some good.

[Harmonica]

My system is very simple: buy low, sell high.

I prefer to buy high, and sell even higher. It so hard to know how low low really is.

I was only being facetious. You sound like a momemtum trader. I was a daytrader a while ago but I lost money -- it's hard to make money when the market is generally moving horizontally, as it has been for the last few years here in USA.

OK Senior sanchez, so markets have been moving horizontally for the last few years?

Look at the chart of the Nasdaq over the last few years

See the thick red & green downtrendlines? These lines show the slope of the 2 long-term trends over this period and they are voluptuous, don't you think?

What you should have stated and which would have been far more accurate is something of this order, "I'll just continue to be a Moron and shoot sparks out my ass and maybe someone will pity me!"

[aletta]

What you should have stated and which would have been far more accurate is something of this order, "I'll just continue to be a Moron and shoot sparks out my ass and maybe someone will pity me!"

Nice to see that one of the sweet talking barrow boys is a member of tv.

Edited June 22, 2005 by aletta

[wimpy]

It has been a nice run over the past four months.

I think it is time to take some $ off the table. There have been several obvious bouts of institutional selling during the past month. This is often a precursor to a correction.

[wimpy]

Well, that wasn't much of a correction. I am now of the opinion that is is over, and I will be looking to take additional long positions.

The institutions showed their conviction on the long side last night. This gives me the confidence to move in.

Edited September 7, 2005 by wimpy