Act Now To Stop Bangkok Sinking, Urge Scientists

[churchill]

BANGKOK, 13 January 2010 (IRIN) - Bangkok is likely to face such severe flooding by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned unless radical action is taken soon, experts warn.

Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in the low-lying city gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year, according to researchers in Thailand.

With the added problems of rising sea levels, which the UN International Panel on Climate Change estimates at between 18cm and 59cm by 2050, and coastal erosion along the Gulf of Thailand, Bangkok could soon be contending with regular flood waters up to 2m high.

“For decades we have known that the city was sinking because of sediment compression, but recent research has shown that the crust of the earth itself is also depressing here, caused by tectonic events that are totally outside our control. It is a combination of factors,” said Anond Snidvongs, the Southeast Asia regional research director for START (global change System for Analysis, Research and Training, a multi-national NGO).

Early warnings

Experts first sounded warnings that Bangkok was sinking in the early 1980s. Much of the problem was caused by water for industry being extracted from underground aquifers faster than it could be replaced, causing the soil to compress.

Changes to the law on water use have helped reduce the rate of soil compression, but researchers warn that policy-makers are still not giving enough thought to the scale of future problems.

Another issue is that many of Bangkok’s canals, which once drew comparisons with those of Venice, have been concreted over and turned into roads, while houses and factories have been built on the natural floodplains surrounding the capital.

During the rainy season, the canals that are left frequently burst their banks, causing parts of the city to flood. And while the floods at present comprise rainwater from the north, should the sea start to flood from the south, it will put large swathes of fertile farmland at risk of salinity.

“The problem is much larger than the city itself – it affects four or five provinces along the coast that need to join together and co-ordinate their efforts,” Anond said.

“There are projects being undertaken, but there needs to be a holistic approach – at the moment, one province, for example, is planting mangroves to help reduce erosion, which is fine, but it does little good if the neighbouring province is doing something different.

“One approach will not solve this – there need to be many solutions, and there needs to be a venue where administrations and academics can pool their ideas and decide what to do. At the moment we do not have anything like that and the response is very fragmented.”

Dike plans

Anond’s view is that people and industry will gradually be forced to abandon areas prone to flooding and move to higher ground, with dikes being built to protect vital infrastructure such as Suvarnabhumi Airport.

A more radical proposal is to build a massive dike, around 100km long, right across the Gulf of Thailand from Hua Hin to Pattaya.

The wall, which would be three times bigger than the world’s longest dike, the 33km-long Saemangeum Seawall in South Korea, would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, but experts are warning that the cost to the Thai economy of sea-water flooding agricultural and industrial land could be far higher.

“I think it is a necessary project, but so far it has not got anywhere because politicians only look at the short-term cost,” said Seree Supharatid, director of the Natural Disaster Research Centre at Rangsit University.

“It is one of a number of measures we should be looking at, including rebuilding the city’s canals, and acting to preserve the wetland areas and prevent any more building on them.”

The massive dike would be technically feasible, according to Cor Dijkgraaf, a Dutch architect and urban planner. “The sea is only around 20m deep in most places, so technically it is no problem at all – the issue is one of cost,” he said.

However, Tara Buakamsri, campaign manager for Greenpeace Southeast Asia, warned that the environmental and social consequences would be difficult to predict.

“There are fishing communities all along the coast, and this would have a huge economic and social impact on them,” he said.

He agreed, however, that some form of coordinated action was necessary.

“Bangkok has been identified as one of the climate change hot spots – it will be one of the most affected cities in the world... Climate change and its effect needs to be on the national agenda and made a central part of Thailand’s development plans – it cannot be seen as a stand-alone issue.”

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=87715

Edited January 13, 2010 by churchill

[Heng]

Or just accept it as a given and prepare / invest (or not) accordingly.

[Jingthing]

Now waiting for the "Al Gore lied" conspiracy theorists.

[shamus]

It's not a conspiracy theory and whilst he hasn't commented on intention he has said he was wrong and made his first billion from his green investments. Wake up man

[Jingthing]

It's not a conspiracy theory and whilst he hasn't commented on intention he has said he was wrong and made his first billion from his green investments. Wake up man

On cue, from central casting.

[shamus]

I don't understand your reference but it has undertones of smugness

Just read the first paragraph and tell me 'the honorable' Al Gore should be in a position of INTERNATIONAL influence??

http://www.generationim.com/sustainability/challenges/

[shamus]

I don't understand your reference but it has undertones of smugness

Just read the first paragraph and tell me 'the honorable' Al Gore should be in a position of INTERNATIONAL influence??

http://www.generationim.com/sustainability/challenges/

No takers? Come on jingthing, tell me he should be in a position to influence government policy while governence is a potential barrier to profitability.

[Jingthing]

Note that the same scientist who predicted the tsunami's devastation is also projecting Bangkok will be under water much sooner that mentioned in the OP. He says by 2030.

(Al Gore is a private citizen. He is not making government policy any more. He has every right as any other US citizen to speak and persuade. If you feel his business interests cancel out his communication work about global warming, that is your right. Most sensible people give Mr. Gore great credit for communicating through his film An Inconvenient Truth this issue globally more effectively than any other person ever had.)

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[Thai at Heart]

I don't understand your reference but it has undertones of smugness

Just read the first paragraph and tell me 'the honorable' Al Gore should be in a position of INTERNATIONAL influence??

http://www.generationim.com/sustainability/challenges/

No takers? Come on jingthing, tell me he should be in a position to influence government policy while governence is a potential barrier to profitability.

The blatant cynicism of a man like Mr. Gore is enough to cast doubt on the entire "climate change" issue. Right or wrong they may be, but "good Old Al" is the wrong poster boy.

[Jingthing]

He actually he has backed off from being poster boy. It is in the hands now of the world leaders. Typical of the anti-science crowd to come to the conclusion that global warming isn't happening because of some flawed human beings. All human beings are flawed and always will be. That doesn't stop what is happening in objective reality from happening, just because you imagine you have won some political points.

Be clear about one thing -- the vast majority of the world's climate scientists agree that man made climate change is REAL and a REAL threat, and also that so called climategate is more of a public relations gaffe rather than changing scientists conclusions about the science. Anything else is just noise based on what motivation exactly? Clearly much more selfish ones than they accuse the likes of Al Gore of. Yes, I understand the bad PR of so called climategate has changed many of the PUBLIC's opinion about all this, but it has NOT changed the conclusions of mainstream climate scientists. Do you trust Joe Blow on the street or qualified experts?

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[shamus]

So you are telling me he no longer influences governmental policies and decisions? I can't believe in a person who has such a massive vested interest. If you like to then crack on, head back into the sand for you.

[Jingthing]

If you like to then crack on, head back into the sand for you.

I will be sure to take the advice of a character like you over the net. Oy vey.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[shamus]

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/energy...government.html

and you know what about my character. You can't hold any moral high ground when you've had to move to thailand to buy a wife

[Jingthing]

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/energy...government.html

and you know what about my character. You can't hold any moral high ground when you've had to move to thailand to buy a wife

Sure he is still doing the good work, but POSTER BOY implies he is the main face for the issue now. He isn't. Most of his work now is more behind the scenes. He WAS poster boy BEFORE, for his film. Not anymore.

Al Gore was never a scientist. His role was as a great communicator between mainstream science and the public, including powerful politicians. Scientists are AWFUL at PR! Our difference here is I think for the most part the science Gore has been talking about is truthful. Even if he makes a trillion dollars off it, still in the world of objective reality, man made global climate change is happening or it is not happening. Obviously, it IS happening.

I'll ignore your ignorant comment about buying Thai wives. That was funny, really it was!

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[shamus]

OK, unlike you my ears are very much open and yeah the buy yer bride comment was unneccessary. You have the ability to annoy me even though I know nothing about you. This is not a good sign for you, anyway back to the point...

Global temperatures have not risen in 10 years, why jingthing? You 'know' man made climate change is real, educate me please

We have historical evidence of enforced migration due to climate change from times before industrialisation. - youtube - man on earth

And one final question then I'm done - Do you think humans have the ability to stop the supposed climate change that's such a threat to our existence when humanity contributes less than 3% of co2 in the atmosphere?

[Latindancer]

I guess that ith the sea level rising, the only thing to do is build dykes all along the sea, and up the river . They've invested too much in this city to lose it. Thailand certainly has enough limestone for the concrete.

If the sea wasn't rising, it might be feasible to pump back water into the underground aquifers......though a monumental task.

[neverdie]

It's not a conspiracy theory and whilst he hasn't commented on intention he has said he was wrong and made his first billion from his green investments. Wake up man

On cue, from central casting.

JT, if anyone is on cue my friend it would have to be you.

Irregardless of what is causing this, its definately happening and Im in one of the 5 provinces that suffers greatly as a result of this. Having said that, I dont own land and plan to move, so I'm right jack, but how long will it be before swampy returns to the swamp and will their be direct flights out of Roi-et to Australia?

[neverdie]

I guess that ith the sea level rising, the only thing to do is build dykes all along the sea, and up the river . They've invested too much in this city to lose it. Thailand certainly has enough limestone for the concrete.

If the sea wasn't rising, it might be feasible to pump back water into the underground aquifers......though a monumental task.

Maybe they could just build a massive glass dome over the top of Bangkok and have the worlds first underwater city.

[Thunder26]

Hey people, stop fighting. We, all have the right to think in a different way. Shamus I'm supporting your point of view. I don't believe that climate change is caused only by humans, especially reffering to the global warming. I believe the sun has a greater influence. At the same time I don't deny that huge megapolises create their own micro climates, with higher temperatures and rainfall. But talking about wives has no connection whatsoever! Let's try not to be ridiculous and racist.

[Jingthing]

And one final question then I'm done - Do you think humans have the ability to stop the supposed climate change that's such a threat to our existence when humanity contributes less than 3% of co2 in the atmosphere?

That was false information. Like the rest of your assertions clearly off some version of right wing motivated skeptic sites.

During the 100,000 year ice age cycle, CO2 varies between a low of approximately 200 ppm during cold periods and a high of 280 ppm during interglacials. Recent human influences have increased this to above 380 ppm. There is a large natural flux of CO2 into and out of the biosphere and oceans. In the pre-industrial era these fluxes were largely in balance. Currently about 57% of human-emitted CO2 is removed by the biosphere and oceans; without this effect CO2 levels would be even higher.[12]

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract

Burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum is the leading cause of increased anthropogenic CO2; deforestation is the second major cause. As of 2004[update], around 27 gigatonnes of CO2 are released from fossil fuels per year worldwide, equivalent to about 7.4 gigatonnes of carbon (see List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions); in 2006 8.4 gigatonnes carbon were emitted [1]. Simple calculations based on the surface area of the Earth, normal atmospheric pressure, and an estimate of roughly 400ppmv atmospheric CO2 content show that the total atmospheric CO2 content is currently approximately 3 teratonnes (3×1012 tonnes).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxid...%27s_atmosphere Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[sunsamourai]

Jingthing was right, we have the whole crew right on cue.

Thanks to these brats for spoiling the thread. Not.

[aeon]

if we stop eating meat possibly we can change the climate to be more friendly, I don't expect governments to stop this madness.

[brahmburgers]

I've been saying for years that Bkk will flood badly, and it will be floods that won't go away the next day. It will be lingering water, dirty and deep.

A dike across the Bight of Thailand won't work, any more than a dike around Bangkok. The only way they might. would be a massive high wall along each bank of the Chao Praya River, and that's about as feasible as building pyramid-sized refrigerators to freeze the water that threatens to flood Bkk.

Cities grow and cities die. Bkk is facing death. The smart yet painful option, is to move to higher ground. Like a granny with truckloads of keepsakes, there will be untold valuables that will have to be moved. Heck, the Egyptians moved monuments carved into hills - to make way for the flooding of the Aswan Dam, so it's not impossible to move big things.

It would be stupid to move Bkk like a giant blob of metal and concrete, to just one site. Instead, it should be moved to various locations. Perhaps one area focused on Universities, another on government, another on industry, another on shrines/wats/royalty, and yet another for industry, and so on. Not to say they all have to be of one type, but the current mentality of thinking everything has to be globbed together within the same murky soup is flawed. It's a Mexico City mentality, and it winds up with a gargantuan metropolis which takes at least half a frustrating day to get from one end to the other. More than a few times I've abandoned plans to visit some place (or meet a business contact) in Bkk, because I got so fed up with sitting in transport for many hours - with smog blowing in on my lungs, making me dough-headed.

I've met more than a few people who had to leave Bkk, even though they had originally wanted to reside there. One guy said he was continually wiping dark gray grunge off his face - which gathered from just hanging out downtown. Several people have told me of persistent coughing & throat problems. Any parents who raise their kids in Bkk should be investigated for child endangerment, I jest not.

[Jingthing]

I agree. Its too expensive to save. They should begin the orderly restructuring now and plan a water sports facility on the current site. It won't be the first time in history a great city has been destroyed. As the world is facing these kinds of things all over now, different countries will adapt differently. The Netherlands can build better dykes. Thailand is going to have to cut and run. Its just the way it is.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[infernalman7]

Isn't it good? Chiang Mai will be the next capital city of Thailand

[shamus]

That was false information. Like the rest of your assertions clearly off some version of right wing motivated skeptic sites.

Your assumptions are very patronising, in fact I find you very patronising.

Do you believe humans have the ability to alter climate change? Just a yes or no would suffice.

Just as an aside if everything in Thailand is so good, why spend all day on Thaivisa?

[Jingthing]

Isn't it good? Chiang Mai will be the next capital city of Thailand

No, clearly Pattaya.

[Jingthing]

That was false information. Like the rest of your assertions clearly off some version of right wing motivated skeptic sites.

Your assumptions are very patronising, in fact I find you very patronising.

Do you believe humans have the ability to alter climate change? Just a yes or no would suffice.

Just as an aside if everything in Thailand is so good, why spend all day on Thaivisa?

Patronizing to an intellect of your caliber? Perish the thought!

Yes, if it is not already too late (some scientists aren't sure) yes we theoretically have the ability to change our behavior and stopping this process going in the direction it is going. Will we? I think not! Why? Look in the mirror.

(Regarding your aside -- who said Thailand was so great?)

Edited January 13, 2010 by Jingthing

[TAWP]

Now waiting for the "Al Gore lied" conspiracy theorists.

I have no idea what Al's lies has to do with this topic, they are not related.

[Jingthing]

Now waiting for the "Al Gore lied" conspiracy theorists.

I have no idea what Al's lies has to do with this topic, they are not related.

Read the thread. It is clear. The topic is related to global warming and rising seas.