Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[churchill]

Pound Falls, Gilts Weaken as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation’s record deficit.

Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound.”

The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12.

continued .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....fRks&pos=3

[ChiangMaiFun]

Pound Falls, Gilts Weaken as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation's record deficit.

Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. "Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound."

The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12.

continued .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....fRks&pos=3

yes, yes but what about the effect on the GBP vs. THB?

[MJP]

Pound's toast. I call 40THB within 2 weeks. Going to stay there . . . if we're lucky. Hung parliament . . . YIKES!!!

Pound Falls, Gilts Weaken as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation's record deficit.

Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. "Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound."

The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12.

continued .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....fRks&pos=3

yes, yes but what about the effect on the GBP vs. THB?

[chiang mai]

Pound Falls, Gilts Weaken as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation's record deficit.

Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. "Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound."

The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12.

continued .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....fRks&pos=3

yes, yes but what about the effect on the GBP vs. THB?

48.91 at present, expect that the fall against THB will mirror that against USD.

[MJP]

Baht has strengthened 0.5% against USD tday.

Pound Falls, Gilts Weaken as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation's record deficit.

Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. "Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound."

The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12.

continued .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....fRks&pos=3

yes, yes but what about the effect on the GBP vs. THB?

48.91 at present, expect that the fall against THB will mirror that against USD.

[cmsally]

Where's Mandelson been the last few days, he really can't be trusted.

Euro crisis ---> Mandelson says he still believes we should join Euro ---> run on GBP

I smell a stinking large Euro toe sucking, power grabbing , money loving, network manoeuvring Mandy rat.

[chiang mai]

Where's Mandelson been the last few days, he really can't be trusted.

Euro crisis ---> Mandelson says he still believes we should join Euro ---> run on GBP

I smell a stinking large Euro toe sucking, power grabbing , money loving, network manoeuvring Mandy rat.

Sally my love, that's hardly polite!

[Chaimai]

I can see that I won't be making my usual transfer to Kasikorn this month.

[chiang mai]

The day is not over until it's over.

[cmsally]

Where's Mandelson been the last few days, he really can't be trusted.

Euro crisis ---> Mandelson says he still believes we should join Euro ---> run on GBP

I smell a stinking large Euro toe sucking, power grabbing , money loving, network manoeuvring Mandy rat.

Sally my love, that's hardly polite!

Sometimes the truth hurts

And this man will see that the election campaign is probably the dirtiest and most backhanded in history.

The Conservatives really have their work cut out ( I don't think Cameron is brilliant but sometimes you have to make do).

But then of course the Conservatives have their secret weapon - Boris

Unfortunately he is a little busy running the next sports day!

[12DrinkMore]

Back in the days when I did drink alcohol I used to make a point of never touching the stuff before 6:0pm, I can highly recommend it 12DM!

Good advice, I now rarely imbibe before 6:30 pm. The above nonsense was written without a drop having passed my lips. I shudder to think what I would have written after the daily recommended intake of several litres of fluid per day to replenish that lost through the heat.

:D

[mommysboy]

Back in the days when I did drink alcohol I used to make a point of never touching the stuff before 6:0pm, I can highly recommend it 12DM!

Good advice, I now rarely imbibe before 6:30 pm. The above nonsense was written without a drop having passed my lips. I shudder to think what I would have written after the daily recommended intake of several litres of fluid per day to replenish that lost through the heat.

Ref never touch alcohol b4 6.30pm- altogether good advice in normal circumstances. Yet in these times of woe I say never be without it before 6.30 and double up thereafter .

[12DrinkMore]

And as long as this bullshit carries on, the UK has no chance.

These fuc_king bankers will suck out the last drop of blood and leave the place totally dry in an irrecoverable position.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...f-just-1bn.html

Royal Bank of Scotland paid its investment bankers £1.3bn in bonuses for making just £1bn in profit last year, not the record £5.7bn declared last week.

.....

Stephen Hester, chief executive, used the performance to justify the £1.3bn bonuses paid to investment bankers, at least 100 of which received more than £1m.

and

UKFI was fully aware of the arrangement when signing off the bonus on behalf of taxpayers.

Maybe these fraudsters should have actually asked the taxpayers before turning a profit into a loss for the shareholders, the majority of whom are the great UK taxpayers.

Edited March 1, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[MJP]

Talking to a German chap, sat in JFK Int. . . . "Ze UK ist just bankrupt banks and vootball".

And as long as this bullshit carries on, the UK has no chance.

These fuc_king bankers will suck out the last drop of blood and leave the place totally dry in an irrecoverable position.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...f-just-1bn.html

Royal Bank of Scotland paid its investment bankers £1.3bn in bonuses for making just £1bn in profit last year, not the record £5.7bn declared last week.

.....

Stephen Hester, chief executive, used the performance to justify the £1.3bn bonuses paid to investment bankers, at least 100 of which received more than £1m.

and

UKFI was fully aware of the arrangement when signing off the bonus on behalf of taxpayers.

Maybe these fraudsters should have actually asked the taxpayers before turning a profit into a loss for the shareholders, the majority of whom are the great UK taxpayers.

[Abrak]

Talking to a German chap, sat in JFK Int. . . . "Ze UK ist just bankrupt banks and vootball".

Ho, ho, ho.... but just remember we havent seen who has had the last laugh here yet.

When Germany bails out Greece for its indiscretions the Brit will be able to reply.

'Germany ist nothing but plain dstupid....'

[MJP]

Greece is 2% of the Eu, no?

Bye bye Triple A!

Talking to a German chap, sat in JFK Int. . . . "Ze UK ist just bankrupt banks and vootball".

Ho, ho, ho.... but just remember we havent seen who has had the last laugh here yet.

When Germany bails out Greece for its indiscretions the Brit will be able to reply.

'Germany ist nothing but plain dstupid....'

[ExpatJ]

Article in this weekends Asia Wall Street Journal (back page) talking about UK being the next one the markets will 'attack' after greece..which means a pounding for the pound..

[chiang mai]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

Edited March 1, 2010 by chiang mai

[MJP]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

I think Monday's trading has set the tone, although I'm pleasantly surprised it didn't close much lower.

Don't forget and I know this may come as cold comfort, you'll still live in the country much cheaper than you ever could in the UK, even if the Pound sits at 40. More the Quid goes down, the higher the inflation in the UK anyway, bit of a lag time though . . . Life goes on.

[mommysboy]

Lest we forget

Before the Asian financial crisis

GBP 42

USD 25

AUD 21

EUR 30

CHF 21

After the Asian financial crisis

GBP 70

USD 43

AUD 30

EUR 46

CHF 31

Now, in the middle of the Western financial crisis

GBP 50

USD 33

AUD 29

EUR 45

CHF 31

And after the recovery (whenever that might happen)..... howabout?

GBP 42

USD 30

AUD 29

EUR 42

CHF 29

Probably way off, but broadly based on

1. The Germans and the French are determined that the EUR will survive, and it seems that Ireland and Greece (at least they are making the right noises) will also work towards it.

2. The US had an amazing growth in the last quarter of 2009. The USD remains the world's reserve currency and Bernanke raised the discount rate rate last month. The seems to be a move in opinion that the FED will slowly reduce its "stimulus". I am also gaining respect for the job that Bernanke is doing. Although he has the advantage of managing the world's reserve currency, he seems to be steering a steady path through the jungle of difficulties that surrounds him.

3. The Swiss have always managed to keep a check on their currency and have been actively holding down the value over the last few months. They do not want it to appreciate significantly against their trading partners in the Eurozone.

4. Australia, trading mostly with Asia, has already increased base rates and the economy seems to be improving.

5. And the Squib. Well, what can I say? Merv is talking about even more QE, I suspect he is concerned that the bond market will fail in the next tranch of bonds, so he will have to buy them up. The property market has still not taken the hit it should have to bring down prices in line with affordability. The only guys that will bail out the UK are in the IMF, certainly I cannot see the Euro countries stepping and helping out. And until there is at least an indication that Merv will increase the base rate there is nothing to encourage investors to move into a devaluing GBP.

There is uncertainy over who will be in power in six months time.

Although MB is convinced that once the GBP has hit rock bottom foreign investors will come in droves to rebuild the lost industry. I am mot sure which countries will be interested. The Europeans will surely prefer to invest in Europe and build up the European industry, or continue to invest in Asia, where the markets are developing and labour costs are low. The Asians will invest in Asia. The Yanks will invest in Asia and the States. The UK is overregulated with employment laws, employee "benefits", environment laws and higher taxes are on the way to pay for the budget deficits, making the UK, IMO, a very unattractive place to invest in.

Ahh, says MB, but the UK is full to the brim with highly qualified and educated workers. Well, maybe, but a lot of those UK university students study bullshit subjects in the arts. The engineering classes are however full of foreign students keen to learn skills applicable in a career in their own countries. This could be viewed as a shot in the UK's own foot, producing highly educated engineering graduates with english language skills, who then promptly head off back home to work in industry. The UK graduates end up by become burdens on the tax payer, either by remaining in education, are unemployed or by working for the government pushing paper around.

But there is another major problem with this "welcome devaluation" (not my words, it was in the press recently) of the GBP. And this is the inflation that comes through the cost of imports. In their deluded skulls the Tricky Triad Brown/Darling/King are hoping to get inflation surging up to at least 4% and more, as this would then start the circle of pay increases going and eliminate debt. This time around, however, I am not convinced that it will work, there are too many unemployed and therefore, at least outside the civil service, which constantly awards itself inflation busting pay increases, there will be no pressure on employers to increase wages. And if inflation starts moving the basic living requirements upwards, the peeps will have even less money to spend on new cars, lcd TVs and houses.

A decade of austerity and reduction in living standards is staring the UK in the face. It's a pity that the Greek/Irish path of spending reductions and allowing the house prices/rents to fall to affordable levels has been considered too difficult for the Labour government to accept, resulting in not only the UK spenders to suffer, but also all the savers, and those dependent on UK income to take a massive hit as Brown shreds another 20% off the GBP (already 10% gone in the last week or two), instead of preserving the value of the currency and putting the economy in order.

That was a long rant, and sorry about the doom, but please take me up on any of these points and give me hope that for the UK things can, indeed, get better. In particular, in relation to this thread, that the GBP will stabilise around 45 to 50 Baht. It is now below 50 and I suspect will stay below 50 for quite a while now.

And also do not act on any of my ridiculous forecasts, as the GBP could shoot up to 65 next week.

But only in your dreams.

It's too bleak. GBP has been effectively devalued and looks set for a further round. UK's main trading area is Europe. People buy on price, not sentiment, and also UK labour costs are not as high as other major economies I reckon. Don't forget UK owns some major global companes, and is at the forefront in pharmaceuticals. Wages in UK are going nowhere for a while, house prices will fall inevitably, and anybody would think UK is the only country with debt. When the financial sector recovers, as it will, Uk will benefit, and yes a production led boom could take place.

I completely agree about belt tightening, and house prices.

GDP is a bit akin to turnover, not the same as profit.

[tijnebijn]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

Pound Sterling 1.4891 while I'm typing right now = -2.26% just for the day ......

Euro 1.3471 = -1.18% for the day ......

Lots of speculating going on right now , its madness , and the doomsayers are coming out again ....

Its not looking great we must admit but I still remember last year around feb they were calling dollar/pound/euro parity , I don't say thats impossible but who will benefit from that ....only those doomsayers if they get their way .

I'm from the Euro-area and thats not good for the Euro and their economy , and the drop of the pound neither , cause they are the largest

business partners of the entire EURO area , so people playing fun on currencies now nothing thats for sure .

Meanwhile I'm calculating how much of a drop to the Thai Baht I'll be fine , I would say 38 to the Euro is so so . I have never seen it drop below 40 , and think its not easy to fall below that , but look at the pound its under 50 once more .

these are hard times for expats , our incomes can half just like that which is harsh but the reality unconveniently .

How much for you guys to say life is getting fukced below a certain level , or even pack and go for a better currency exchange somewhere ....I would say EURO < 35 , Pound < 40 and Dollar < 28 will leave Thailand without expats ......or tourists .

just saw the pound geting back to 1.4940 in a minute ...

Edited March 1, 2010 by tijnebijn

[chiang mai]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

I think Monday's trading has set the tone, although I'm pleasantly surprised it didn't close much lower.

Don't forget and I know this may come as cold comfort, you'll still live in the country much cheaper than you ever could in the UK, even if the Pound sits at 40. More the Quid goes down, the higher the inflation in the UK anyway, bit of a lag time though . . . Life goes on.

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

[chiang mai]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

Pound Sterling 1.4891 while I'm typing right now = -2.26% just for the day ......

Euro 1.3471 = -1.18% for the day ......

Lots of speculating going on right now , its madness , and the doomsayers are coming out again ....

Its not looking great we must admit but I still remember last year around feb they were calling dollar/pound/euro parity , I don't say thats impossible but who will benefit from that ....only those doomsayers if they get their way .

I'm from the Euro-area and thats not good for the Euro and their economy , and the drop of the pound neither , cause they are the largest

business partners of the entire EURO area , so people playing fun on currencies now nothing thats for sure .

Meanwhile I'm calculating how much of a drop to the Thai Baht I'll be fine , I would say 38 to the Euro is so so . I have never seen it drop below 40 , and think its not easy to fall below that , but look at the pound its under 50 once more .

these are hard times for expats , our incomes can half just like that which is harsh but the reality unconveniently .

How much for you guys to say life is getting fukced below a certain level , or even pack and go for a better currency exchange somewhere ....I would say EURO < 35 , Pound < 40 and Dollar < 28 will leave Thailand without expats ......or tourists .

just saw the pound geting back to 1.4940 in a minute ...

I calculate that my pain starts at 40, but I've got a year on hand and a lot can happen in that time, tough though for folks who exchange on a regular basis.

[MJP]

Lest we forget

Before the Asian financial crisis

GBP 42

USD 25

AUD 21

EUR 30

CHF 21

After the Asian financial crisis

GBP 70

USD 43

AUD 30

EUR 46

CHF 31

Now, in the middle of the Western financial crisis

GBP 50

USD 33

AUD 29

EUR 45

CHF 31

And after the recovery (whenever that might happen)..... howabout?

GBP 42

USD 30

AUD 29

EUR 42

CHF 29

Probably way off, but broadly based on

1. The Germans and the French are determined that the EUR will survive, and it seems that Ireland and Greece (at least they are making the right noises) will also work towards it.

2. The US had an amazing growth in the last quarter of 2009. The USD remains the world's reserve currency and Bernanke raised the discount rate rate last month. The seems to be a move in opinion that the FED will slowly reduce its "stimulus". I am also gaining respect for the job that Bernanke is doing. Although he has the advantage of managing the world's reserve currency, he seems to be steering a steady path through the jungle of difficulties that surrounds him.

3. The Swiss have always managed to keep a check on their currency and have been actively holding down the value over the last few months. They do not want it to appreciate significantly against their trading partners in the Eurozone.

4. Australia, trading mostly with Asia, has already increased base rates and the economy seems to be improving.

5. And the Squib. Well, what can I say? Merv is talking about even more QE, I suspect he is concerned that the bond market will fail in the next tranch of bonds, so he will have to buy them up. The property market has still not taken the hit it should have to bring down prices in line with affordability. The only guys that will bail out the UK are in the IMF, certainly I cannot see the Euro countries stepping and helping out. And until there is at least an indication that Merv will increase the base rate there is nothing to encourage investors to move into a devaluing GBP.

There is uncertainy over who will be in power in six months time.

Although MB is convinced that once the GBP has hit rock bottom foreign investors will come in droves to rebuild the lost industry. I am mot sure which countries will be interested. The Europeans will surely prefer to invest in Europe and build up the European industry, or continue to invest in Asia, where the markets are developing and labour costs are low. The Asians will invest in Asia. The Yanks will invest in Asia and the States. The UK is overregulated with employment laws, employee "benefits", environment laws and higher taxes are on the way to pay for the budget deficits, making the UK, IMO, a very unattractive place to invest in.

Ahh, says MB, but the UK is full to the brim with highly qualified and educated workers. Well, maybe, but a lot of those UK university students study bullshit subjects in the arts. The engineering classes are however full of foreign students keen to learn skills applicable in a career in their own countries. This could be viewed as a shot in the UK's own foot, producing highly educated engineering graduates with english language skills, who then promptly head off back home to work in industry. The UK graduates end up by become burdens on the tax payer, either by remaining in education, are unemployed or by working for the government pushing paper around.

But there is another major problem with this "welcome devaluation" (not my words, it was in the press recently) of the GBP. And this is the inflation that comes through the cost of imports. In their deluded skulls the Tricky Triad Brown/Darling/King are hoping to get inflation surging up to at least 4% and more, as this would then start the circle of pay increases going and eliminate debt. This time around, however, I am not convinced that it will work, there are too many unemployed and therefore, at least outside the civil service, which constantly awards itself inflation busting pay increases, there will be no pressure on employers to increase wages. And if inflation starts moving the basic living requirements upwards, the peeps will have even less money to spend on new cars, lcd TVs and houses.

A decade of austerity and reduction in living standards is staring the UK in the face. It's a pity that the Greek/Irish path of spending reductions and allowing the house prices/rents to fall to affordable levels has been considered too difficult for the Labour government to accept, resulting in not only the UK spenders to suffer, but also all the savers, and those dependent on UK income to take a massive hit as Brown shreds another 20% off the GBP (already 10% gone in the last week or two), instead of preserving the value of the currency and putting the economy in order.

That was a long rant, and sorry about the doom, but please take me up on any of these points and give me hope that for the UK things can, indeed, get better. In particular, in relation to this thread, that the GBP will stabilise around 45 to 50 Baht. It is now below 50 and I suspect will stay below 50 for quite a while now.

And also do not act on any of my ridiculous forecasts, as the GBP could shoot up to 65 next week.

But only in your dreams.

It's too bleak. GBP has been effectively devalued and looks set for a further round. UK's main trading area is Europe. People buy on price, not sentiment, and also UK labour costs are not as high as other major economies I reckon. Don't forget UK owns some major global companes, and is at the forefront in pharmaceuticals. Wages in UK are going nowhere for a while, house prices will fall inevitably, and anybody would think UK is the only country with debt. When the financial sector recovers, as it will, Uk will benefit, and yes a production led boom could take place.

I completely agree about belt tightening, and house prices.

GDP is a bit akin to turnover, not the same as profit.

Belt tightening is a real head straightener. It will benefit those of us that plan it and practice it now and during any upturn (if). For example, I used to earn very well (bloody hard work though) and the wife used to pi$$ it up the wall. Now, with the former purchasing manager gone, I have a strict household budget which I shall stick to whether I'm making a little or a lot.

Still really sick with myself I didn't buy the bike last year and change the living room floor tiles and gut and replace the bathroom . . . but hey-ho! . . . for another year sometime in the future. At least we now plan expenditure and control cost way, way better than we did.

[mommysboy]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

I think Monday's trading has set the tone, although I'm pleasantly surprised it didn't close much lower.

Don't forget and I know this may come as cold comfort, you'll still live in the country much cheaper than you ever could in the UK, even if the Pound sits at 40. More the Quid goes down, the higher the inflation in the UK anyway, bit of a lag time though . . . Life goes on.

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

But even above this aren't we also seeing a determined efforts by shorters to drive the price down? Now to what extent they are merely capitalising on the weakness or creating it is not clear. It could be they failed though! Tomorrow will be very interesting.

[chiang mai]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

I think Monday's trading has set the tone, although I'm pleasantly surprised it didn't close much lower.

Don't forget and I know this may come as cold comfort, you'll still live in the country much cheaper than you ever could in the UK, even if the Pound sits at 40. More the Quid goes down, the higher the inflation in the UK anyway, bit of a lag time though . . . Life goes on.

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

But even above this aren't we also seeing a determined efforts by shorters to drive the price down? Now to what extent they are merely capitalising on the weakness or creating it is not clear. It could be they failed though! Tomorrow will be very interesting.

From Reuters:

"The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which provides a snapshot of traders' positions, showed that the number short, speculative positions betting on a drop in the pound against the dollar reached a record 80,986".

[MJP]

1.4930 and the UK days nearly done, I was way off, sorry. Anybody else feeling pissed off, raise your hands now!

I think Monday's trading has set the tone, although I'm pleasantly surprised it didn't close much lower.

Don't forget and I know this may come as cold comfort, you'll still live in the country much cheaper than you ever could in the UK, even if the Pound sits at 40. More the Quid goes down, the higher the inflation in the UK anyway, bit of a lag time though . . . Life goes on.

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

But even above this aren't we also seeing a determined efforts by shorters to drive the price down? Now to what extent they are merely capitalising on the weakness or creating it is not clear. It could be they failed though! Tomorrow will be very interesting.

From Reuters:

"The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which provides a snapshot of traders' positions, showed that the number short, speculative positions betting on a drop in the pound against the dollar reached a record 80,986".

Whenever we see a sudden rise in the Pound, this is likely to be shorters. Perhaps a thought for those that get comfortable when it appears to be in a little rally . . . no offence to the OP.

[12DrinkMore]

Talking to a German chap, sat in JFK Int. . . . "Ze UK ist just bankrupt banks and vootball".

Ho, ho, ho.... but just remember we havent seen who has had the last laugh here yet.

When Germany bails out Greece for its indiscretions the Brit will be able to reply.

'Germany ist nothing but plain dstupid....'

Hi Abrak,

The Brits have nothing to laugh about. They are the joke.

Even the vootball is now mostly foreign players.... And the England team is run by the Pizza Pair Fabio and Italo. The whole of England cannot come up with a competent manager and coach. Just about sums up the place. Can't come up with any decent politicians or businessmen either. I don't even want to go in the direction of the bankers.

At least the Germans have the strength and commitment to try to achieve something for the good of Europe; a stable currency. They also command a good deal of respect for their aims for excellent quality and long term planning.

The Brits have always been for themselves and their own selfish aims. And are carrying on the the same policy even as I write this. "Beggar thy neighbour", devalue the currency and blame the rest of Europe for the piss poor performance of the UK political &lt;deleted&gt;.

I am certain Naam will concur, you will never, ever, see the the German politicians howling and behaving like donkeys in the German parliament. They are all interested in finding the best solution for the country and not wasting years of inaction and squabbling for their own personal gains.

Yes, I have had a few to drink, but tomorrow I will stand by what I scribble down here.

I used to be proud to be British and now I am ashamed. The only visible exports from the the UK are yobs, pissheads, tattooed &lt;deleted&gt;, hooligans and fat women, who think they are blokes hanging around bars. And the main productive section of the UK is debts and more debts.

As a good Scandinavian friend of mine said a few years ago, "Thailand is a poor country full of rich people, the UK is a rich country full of poor people".

Now it is not a rich country either.

Edited March 1, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[lannarebirth]

Just a note I received today from the smartest British subject I know:

UK - Prudential is buying AIG Asia to get an existing customer base into which it can sell insurance products (ie, nag nag nag upselling of higher margin insurance products :-)

UK Problem:

- Will refuse to take deficit reduction medicine.

- Will not cut public sector empire headcount & pay & pensions.

- Will raise taxes to cripple the diminished private sector.

Reason:

- It buys re-election for brown re vast public sector block votes.

- It prevents "Years Of Discontent" Public Sector Strikes.

- It prevents collapse of NuLabour Public Sector Empire.

Instead:

- Brown will destroy the currency by devaluation.

- Brown will force more Quant Easing to support GILT prices.

- QE debt is off balance sheet remember, it just burns bond holders.

- Brown will promise another 1M Public Sector Jobs, Quangos & Gravy.

- Private Sector will turn out the light or sell photovoltaic panels(*)

Photovoltaic are not economic in the UK.

Most countries are cutting production or subsidy re SoCal to Germany.

UK of course wants Sharp to keep its factory in Wales re jobs.

So UK is forcing ElecCos to buy 1kWhr at 43p/unit from domestic PV instead of buying wholesale electricity at 3p/unit. This is insane.

Conservative victory = Public Sector SLASH n BURN.

Labour victory = Public Sector Empire & Currency SLASH n BURN.

If labour do get in, the next election will be forced by a trip to the IMF - no I am not kidding, we will become Greece "overnight".

Greece will get a financial bailout in return for deficit cuts.

Spain will likewise.

Italy will likewise.

Ireland will likewise.

UK will just devalue.

The problem then is Germany/Euro must pull a dead weight along.

Which makes the world ever more dependent on China-Brazil book-keeping smoke-n-mirrors. USA to Spain are not booking foreclosures, Citibank ticker tells you the real state of much banking industry.

The world has dumped GAAP in the bin, it's become an open prison.

[12DrinkMore]

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

You missed another very key issue

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...dp-1904064.html

January is the most important month of the year for income tax and corporation tax. As a result the Government is usually in surplus – even last year it was in surplus. This year it isn't: there was a deficit of more than £4bn. That means that for the financial year as a whole there is virtually no chance of beating the Treasury's £178bn borrowing estimate