Violence If Court Seizes Assets Of Ousted Premier Thaksin?

[george]

Poll: Thai public fears violence if court seizes assets of ousted premier Thaksin

BANGKOK: -- A new survey conducted last week by the reputable Dusit Poll found that less than half of the public has paid close attention to developments regarding the legal resolution of what should be done with the assets of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Only two in five--slightly over 41 per cent of respondents--have closely followed developments of the court which will deliver its verdict later this month on whether the frozen assets of ousted prime minister Thaksin and his family should be seized.

The respondents also fear that violence could occur.

The survey was conducted among 2,241 people in Bangkok and the surrounding provinces from February 9 to 13 with 41.20 per cent of respondents still believing that Mr Thaksin was innocent and violence could take place.

The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will rule on February 26 whether Bt76.6 billion in frozen assets belonging to Mr Thaksin and his family should be seized. The ex-premier is accused of accumulating the assets by abusing his power while prime minister.

Mr Thaksin was ousted from power in a bloodless coup in September 2006.

Over one-third, almost 36 per cent, said they were uncertain, but believed that it should be handled solely by the judicial system.

One-third of respondents, 33.3 per cent, said that the best solution is to let the judges decide the case justly.

-- TNA 2010-02-14

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[jdinasia]

Honestly --- not enough options. I believe there will be violence BEFORE the case is decided.

[NALAK]

went to local market yesterday to enquire about pepper spray for the wife to carry as been a few attacks recently. guy on the stall who had every thing in that way said come back in 2 days have more, container coming from china into port near pattaya, red shirts want it he said for big fight so somebody some where thinks theres going to be violence, he certaily did.

Edited February 14, 2010 by NALAK

[onnut]

I think it will kick off, not looking forward to it.

[h90]

Honestly --- not enough options. I believe there will be violence BEFORE the case is decided.

agree I voted with No because I think BEFORE

[jdinasia]

Honestly --- not enough options. I believe there will be violence BEFORE the case is decided.

agree I voted with No because I think BEFORE

I voted yes because I think there certainly will be violence even though I think it will happen before the court rules. Once the court rules Thaksin will only have 30 days to appeal and the appeal requires him to be present in Thailand himself. I don't think he can take the risk that they will rule against him, because when he shows up in Thailand he goes straight to jail for 2 years.

[brahmburgers]

I follow the news, but am rather insulated, as I live hundreds of Km from where any violence might occur. Even so, I think any violence will be from fringe elements and be short-lived - ...probably just free-ranging young guys looking for a way to make some trouble. It will have as much affect as a some firecrackers at a rock concert.

However, peoples' perceptions can make a relatively small thing loom large. Example, the other night, a nearby hill caught fire. People in the neighborhood were fearful the fire would spread out and engulf their houses. I knew the territory, as I've hiked all over the nearby hills, and knew there was no danger to surrounding houses. Yet no assurances from me could stem the fear and sobbing (eminating from women and children) that was all around. It's human nature to take a potential threat and amp it up to ridiculous levels. T and the Red Shirt leaders know how excitable Thais are, and that's why the Red Shirt leaders are playing on those fears as much as possible.

There won't be an grand demonstration, and any rioting will be limited to little pockets of tough guys wanting to get their adreneline pumped while strutting around to gain attention. Small potatoes. No worries.

[givenall]

There may be isolated violence here and there. The real support is not really there anymore. And I think government is ready for them. And since most are paid to bad things then they may think twice before any act of violence.

[LuckyLew]

Judging by the smaller and smaller numbers at red rallies I do not think there will be

much trouble. A few hard core red shirts might try to stir the pot, but rather reckon

the security forces will act swiftly to douse any issues

[basjke]

If they confiscate all of it for sure there will be violence.Even I would get violent if they took that kind of money of me.

However i guess there will be no violence pre-judgment day,or only some minor incidents,as i think he still hopes to recover part of it and sure loses that chance if it turns bad before the date.

I'm for sure no Thaksin fan but in my opinion they should return some part,on condition that he backs off,because he owned the company before he turned PM.For sure he stole some more money,as many other politicians did and still do,but from which they don't have enough evidence yet.But the court should consider case by case and don't make a harsher judgment on this case because they can not proof other suspicions yet.

My believes are that if they take the full amount the future will not look bright for Thailand for a long time.I'm also leaning more and more to the idea that there will be some delays in the court decision.

[john b good]

I believe that there will be violence.

Despite their smiling faces Thai's are a very violent bunch of people and it only takes the slightest thing to trigger them off.

They are like powder kegs.....

[granuaile]

I voted I don't know. I think there is a high probability of violence but not a certainty of it. I believe that many of the red-shirt leaders realized that last years actions during Songkran made them look bad not just in Thailand but abroad, as well as antagonizing the actual residents of Bangkok.

Whatever happens I hope it is good for Thailand in the end.

[junglist]

there all ready has been violence. i hope the big cat falls and hard. an example must be made. no class is above the law.

[brahmburgers]

For those who mention some solution like, "allow T to have some of the money back on condition he promises to not meddle in Thai politics any more" .....sort of thing.

Yes, that's reasonable, but unfortunately we're dealing with a person who does not know the difference between telling a lie and telling the truth. T is a man who has consistently lied and cheated. Add to that the fact that he's insatiably power hungry and wracked by plans on revenge, then there's no way he can be trusted to enter any agreements. He has proved that he can not be trusted by contract nor by gentleman's agreement. His word has zero value. No deals.

[yoshiwara]

I voted no because the Red violence several months ago discredited them and lost them lingering support with the public.

If there is any red violent outbreak now the army will easily be able to restore control.

This is why the Thaksin forces have focussed on trying to strengthen dissident forces in the army and police to weaken senior commander resolve.

But it isn't working. The reds are not happy bunnies right now.

[Insight]

^ Agree with yoshiwara. Towards the end of Songkran there was very little empathy left amongst the public for the reds as far as I recall.

If there is any violence it will be pretty short lived, then people will then suffer another x months of their "we're peaceful, the dog did it" style excuses.

[animatic]

I expect violence before and after, the question is; which will be the worse.

I don't think the numbers of sympathetic Thais will mean much.

Likely there isn't enough to easily make a 'movement' against the authorities,

but there will be enough to try and create an 'incident' in the hopes of making a movement viable.

There is no other mechanism that can work for them in the near term.

Is it the preemptive scare or the revenge, give it back move....?

So far the smaller preemptive moves have not made anyone blink.

Will they have to move bigger to stop it? Will they think they can stop it like that?

Or wait and start screaming at the injustice?

So if it all goes away for Shin inc, will he lose it under that extra pressure or not?

Edited February 15, 2010 by animatic

[NALAK]

only time will tell, i would not be suprised at lots of trouble and army come back to get control again. all planned and pre-meditated. if Red shirts leaders tell them to fight they will and T will fund them. IMO

[Thai at Heart]

I am concerned if there is a sign that the troubles will be outside Bangkok. I don't personally fear violence, since I will probably (99.999%) be able to avoid it.

Whilst I don't wish troubles on any particular part of Thailand, having it in Bangkok means that the media scrutiny and chain of command of the armed forces is largely visible. I would hate that should Thaksin lose his case that there are violent protests outside Bangkok. Whilst I don't think that the army cares that much what the world thinks about them, they aren't going to kill members of the public in Bangkok (despite what the reds said about Songkran).

What worries me is if there is confrontation in Chiangmai, Udon, and more rural areas than that, that away from the centre of the media spotlight the army will have a freer hand to do what they like. In addition, the authorities in Bangkok have been getting a lot of experience at this, those outside will be much more trigger happy I fear.

[Morch]

There's a good chance of something going down, before and after, sure.

But more in the way of organized/planned actions in hope of lighting the flames.

Can't guess how far these will go, but not very worried.

You need money and a goal to motivate masses. While Mr. T has himself a nice stash regardless of the outcome, he'll certainly come out looking as the loosing end (if indeed the court takes away the frozen assets) - not sure people would queue to support him. At least not to the extent of getting on a bus somewhere and messing with armed forces.

Also, somewhat doubt that the generals are all that keen to take direct charge of the country. Perhaps brokering a new deal for themselves with whomever is more feasible.

Of course, regardless of what I think, wife announced we're going shopping (read stocking up)...

[ballpoint]

I think there may be violence if the red rally (assuming it goes ahead) is not confined to one location in Bangkok. Particularly if they start protesting in residential areas again. The violence may not be initiated by the reds, but that doesn't mean it will be started by the military / yellows / government, it will probably start with the residents heckling the protestors, maybe throwing things at them, and escalate from there. Lest I'm accused of bias, I believe the same would happen if the PAD were to protest in any predominantly residential area of Bangkok. People have not forgotten the events of last Songkhran.

[Artisi]

The government should show some b_alls and pr-empt any trouble by rounding up the known trouble makers who have been mouthing off for the past weeks about all the trouble there is going to be - there has certainly been enough threats and inferences to clobber these guys ahead of any trouble being started at their directive.

Chop the legs off and the ramble will be leaderless.

[hammered]

Very unpredictable. Logically it makes no sense for Thaksin or the reds to have attributable violence before the decision as it would turn public sympathy away from them en masse. For the idealist reds it makes no sense to have violence after the decision whatever it is as they can play a long game. However, Thaksin may fancy a bit of revenge.

If there are large crowds milling around another problem is control and anger. Hate filled speeches are part of the red playbook and their crowds do include loose canons as does some fringes of the less idealistic leadership. We saw this pre-Songkhran when Arisaman and Jakrapob were carrying out a roaming startegy and were backeed by protestors looking for action against the other leadership who wanted a one place concentrated peaceful gathering. Considering the umbrella nature of the reds it will be very hard to keep them all agreed on tactics and the very nature of the umbrella make up means there is no single organised leadership that can exert control.

In the run up to the decison we will likely see a continuation of unattributable violence by grenade and bomb. In the aftermath of the decison things get a lot more uncertain imho. However, for the reds to achieve their aims they need to avoid violence or if it occurs make sure they overthrow the government as violence and failure will be a massive setback

[Samuian]

What makes me wonder is: why are there so many fumblers at work who always seem to manage to bungle the attempt - or is it the big plan, the big plan of someone rather deranged, or is it simply not only one, but many bunglers?

A fruit juice carton with 1.5 K C4 - planted and not getting off?

Miracle, miracle, miracle...!

Well actually some are very, very lucky that it is as it is...

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I voted Yes even though I wouldn't actually 'fear' it. I think it'll happen though.

[tonywebster]

I am the same, I have no fear of it, but I think it will happen. You should add another choice or change it to 'do you think there will be violence'

[hammered]

Dunno I think fear is an OK word as I always fear for violenceas violence causes hurt and deatht o people and that is never a good thing. If it really kicks off in Thailand a lot of people could get killed or hurt and that isnt a good thing. Fear is OK (even if I dont perosnally fear violence myself as it is unliley to come to me still empathy is a good thing). Maybe they should also add do you fear violence if Thaksin's assets are not seized and Do you fear violence if Thaksin's assets are partially siezed, but it is not really about a technically valid survey but something for us to debate.

[Lancelot]

I voted yes but its more like a coin toss: 50/50.

Taksin was stupid to bring this on himself (tax avoidance.)

When it was apparant that the opposition wasn't going to let it go, he should have come forward and announced: "I honestly feel that I have no tax liability on the sale of my children's business (Ha!) but in the interests of national harmony -and Thai rak Thai- I voluntarily remit full payment to the Thai treasury. Further, I challenge my detractors to face the same public scrutiny of their financial affairs and to voluntarily and immediately remit unpaid/back taxes to the treasury. Then keep hammering home (his enemies) that refused to step up to the plate and pay up.

Talk about turning the tables