Spectre Of Tragedies Past Hovers Ahead Showdown Between Thai Government And Red Shirts

[webfact]

Spectre of tragedies past hovers ahead

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The die is cast and consequences of the showdown between the government and the red shirts will become evident this week.

The crucial issue is not which side will win or lose but how much collateral damage will be inflicted on the country.

Political polarisation will continue regard-less of the outcome of the rally, because of mutual distrust between the rival camps.

With the red shirts poised to descend on the capital to try to force a game change and the government equally determined to rein in the mob, Rajdamnoen Ave may once more see tragic losses due to political fighting.

Past mass rallies - Oct 14, 1973, Oct 6, 1976, May 1992, Oct 7, 2008, and April 2009 - ended up with blood, toil, tears and sweat, but no jump in progress.

For each rally in the past, organisers took great care to ensure a peaceful assembly. None were responsible for inciting violence. The red-shirt leaders are no different from their predecessors. Elaborate plans have been mapped out for the reds to assemble in an orderly manner this coming Sunday.

Based on historical lessons, the best-laid plans for Thai political rallies often go astray. Violence was not anticipated but erupted due to surprise or often unidentified ele-ments. The red shirts and the government ought to both take heed of past tragedies.

From the viewpoint of the red shirts, the anti-government rally is not designed to spill blood. But they want to be a catalyst for change.

Initially their organisers wanted to mobilise a million protesters, seen as a key number to paralyse state mechanisms and cause the government to collapse.

Despite intervention by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and a large number of Pheu Thai MPs, the ambitious mobilisation plan has been scaled down to target no more than 200,000 protesters.

If things go according to plans, the red shirts hope for a change of government via one of three scenarios - an outright coalition switch by luring junior coalition partners to a Pheu Thai-led alliance, the swaying of senti-ment to fuel a censure debate, or a coup that will fan anti-coup anger nationwide.

If the street protests achieve a game change, the red shirts hope for a snap elec-tion, which they expect the opposition to win decisively.

That could pave the way for the suspended 1997 charter to be restored and a legislative pardon for Thaksin and barred party executives.

Judging from various security assessment reports, the red shirts are well supplied to carry on street protests for about a week. This begs an unanswered question on what would happen if they cannot bring about change within such a timeframe.

From the viewpoint of democracy advo-cates, particularly those from the group known as the October generation, they want street protests to play out in full. Past protests had abrupt and inconclusive end-ings due to unforeseen circumstances.

Certain academics insist that Thailand needs a genuine uprising to bring about a complete transformation of the political landscape to embrace democracy.

From the viewpoint of the government, the upcoming rally is nothing but a foolish manipulation of the masses to serve the interests of one man - Thaksin, with the country held hostage to his interests.

No matter how you look at it; the show-down is set to happen. And the outcome is in the wind. Before doing anything rash, both parties should think twice, as according to Murphy's law, whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.

-- The Nation 2010-03-09

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[WinnieTheKhwai]

To be fair, this is a opinion piece, and, especially by The Nation's standards, one of the most sensible I've seen posted in quite a while. At least it doesn't go about calling red shirts all sorts of names or attributing all sorts of evil intentions. That's progress.

It even links the upcoming protest directly with past heroic efforts to bring about democracy in Thailand. That's a pretty stunning thing for The Nation to say.

Edited March 9, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[FunkyGuru]

Well this particular article was much 'neutral' then most of the spiced up ones from Nation. However I wonder why so many un-necessary hyphenation of words right in the middle of sentences??

Damage is already done. In my view.

[blaze]

To be fair, this is a opinion piece, and, especially by The Nation's standards, one of the most sensible I've seen posted in quite a while. At least it doesn't go about calling red shirts all sorts of names or attributing all sorts of evil intentions. That's progress.

It even links the upcoming protest directly with past heroic efforts to bring about democracy in Thailand. That's a pretty stunning thing for The Nation to say.

Agreed- surpsisingly fair and level headed, considering the source(s).

I recall in 92, reports that the demonstrations had been 'joined' by very violent young, unidentifiable men on motorbikes- probably planted to justify an escalation in repression. (ie- bringing down the iron boot- hard!). In this day and age, of enhanced communication, more people reading newspapers, etc, it may no longer be nescessary to hire these thugs- when thugs working in the media can just as effectively make the case for the iron boot. Let's hope that the behavior of the media reflects the kind of maturity and responsibility demonstrated in this article- and not the fear mongering alarmist sensationalism that has been rife over the last few weeks.

Edited March 9, 2010 by blaze

[Old Man River]

To be fair, this is a opinion piece, and, especially by The Nation's standards, one of the most sensible I've seen posted in quite a while. At least it doesn't go about calling red shirts all sorts of names or attributing all sorts of evil intentions. That's progress.

It even links the upcoming protest directly with past heroic efforts to bring about democracy in Thailand. That's a pretty stunning thing for The Nation to say.

Agreed- surpsisingly fair and level headed, considering the source(s).

I recall in 92, reports that the demonstrations had been 'joined' by very violent young, unidentifiable men on motorbikes- probably planted to justify an escalation in repression. (ie- bringing down the iron boot- hard!). In this day and age, of enhanced communication, more people reading newspapers, etc, it may no longer be nescessary to hire these thugs- when thugs working in the media can just as effectively make the case for the iron boot. Let's hope that the behavior of the media reflects the kind of maturity and responsibility demonstrated in this article- and not the fear mongering alarmist sensationalism that has been rife over the last few weeks.

I agree that the media should show restraint, but living here I am more worried about the loosely organized Red Shirts and their ability to show restraint. False reports of violence occurring in parts of the city is inevitable and I question how different contingents of Red Shirts will react.

Anyway, should it be necessary, I think the military is ready to put a curfew on Bangkok and collect our visitors.

[hammered]

To be fair, this is a opinion piece, and, especially by The Nation's standards, one of the most sensible I've seen posted in quite a while. At least it doesn't go about calling red shirts all sorts of names or attributing all sorts of evil intentions. That's progress.

It even links the upcoming protest directly with past heroic efforts to bring about democracy in Thailand. That's a pretty stunning thing for The Nation to say.

Avudh is always worth a read imho. He always has a slightly different take on things.

[Siripon]

In the uprising against Sujinda and especially against the 3 tyrants in 1973, students formed a very important part of the protest.

Note there are very few this time, they've seen through Thaksin.

[anotherpeter]

In the uprising against Sujinda and especially against the 3 tyrants in 1973, students formed a very important part of the protest.

Note there are very few this time, they've seen through Thaksin.

That has something to do with education. Unfortunately the poor in Thailand don't know enough about what's really going on.

[moo9]

In the uprising against Sujinda and especially against the 3 tyrants in 1973, students formed a very important part of the protest.

Note there are very few this time, they've seen through Thaksin.

I would say, the kids are simply not interested in politics but only sanook, shopping etc.

That's a worldwide trend.

But I agree, that an average intelligent person will look through T. easily.

[Netfan]

In the uprising against Sujinda and especially against the 3 tyrants in 1973, students formed a very important part of the protest.

Note there are very few this time, they've seen through Thaksin.

I would say, the kids are simply not interested in politics but only sanook, shopping etc.

That's a worldwide trend.

But I agree, that an average intelligent person will look through T. easily.

Lots of Thai uni kids are interested in this - Thai forums are jumping. They have opinions, they just aren't the ones who will be out on the streets. A good thing, IMHO

Edited March 9, 2010 by Netfan

[Jingthing]

Good point. This is NOT a middle class college student revolution. If it was, it would be much more credible, and much more likely to succeed. The students are smart enough to realize Thaksin reds have nothing to do with democracy and progress for Thailand. If they had both the students AND the workers, that would be very powerful. But they don't, and they won't.

Edited March 9, 2010 by Jingthing

[animatic]

If things go according to plans, the red shirts hope for a change of government via one of three scenarios -

an outright coalition switch by luring junior coalition partners to a Pheu Thai-led alliance,

the swaying of senti-ment to fuel a censure debate,

or a coup that will fan anti-coup anger nationwide.

200,000 reds in th streets can never cause any of these options to take place.

The censure debate is moribund, they may try it later in the month,

but it's been stalled for lack of AN ISSUE that actually will work....

A switch of sides...

not with a year to go and they ARE IN the cabinet now.

The other parties know their chances in PTP partnership are not rosie,

they would never be trusted for years and that means cash deals for them.

Too much time would be focused on bringing back TRT PPP and Thaksin,

JUST as it was with PPP 1 and 2, so little business would get done till the slavage job is finished...

then they don't NEED that little untrusted party anymore.

The only group wanting a coup is Thaksins's military supporters,

the main parts of the army have nothing to benefit for that drastic change.

So that leaves fringe or hardcore elements sacraficing some of their own lambs

to the slaughter house of public opinion on the field of dishonor.

The only chance of a public uprising is by causing such utter carnage and

making it look the security / army's fault 100% , there otherwise can't be any traction

with the people to put any adequate pressure on things to change the status quo.

Either it all collapses in fantasy land, or the will be a real mess to face.

I vote for a red collapse and discredit leading to retrenchment,

denial of Thaksin and the old leaders, and a splintering of the incompatible factions

that are artificially joined for this purchased social event.

Then MAYBE in a year or so, the actual democratic leaning red elements CAN

participate in a real election and have legislative MPS who CAN participate

productively in the running of the country.

We can hope for this.

[animatic]

Good point. This is NOT a middle class college student revolution. If it was, it would be much more credible, and much more likely to succeed. The students are smart enough to realize Thaksin reds have nothing to do with democracy and progress for Thailand. If they had both the students AND the workers, that would be very powerful. But they don't, and they won't.

Yes a very strong point, the most educated kids who usually DO lean quite left,

are NOT, very obviously NOT, supporting this debackle.

[SomTumTiger]

Now that the spectre of violence is so thinly veiled (the Flight of the Shiniwatras, weapons stolen, etc). We need more red shirt apologists to explain how this is really only about freedom and democracy and not Thaksin's Money, and Thaksin's Power.

I'll wait.

[Netfan]

^^ Don't hold your breath- I've been waiting a week for one of them to outline the Reds actual plans for the new utopia, other than bringing back the Big Chicken. Not one has responded.

[LomSak27]

Don't know what all the shouting is about. Look back at the occupation of Goverment House and the airport, no bloodbath took place.

[SomTumTiger]

Aside from the occasional Seh Daeng grenade tossing... but I'm sure that just slipped the memory.

[animatic]

Aside from the occasional Seh Daeng grenade tossing... but I'm sure that just slipped the memory.

Ditto.

He said it would happen, and then it did for several nights.

This of course both hardened the resolve and enraged the PAD leaders.

And they had to move to a more defensible and bigger value target,

the airport take-over was the result of this gross mis-calculation by the Red side.

They forced PADs hand into a move.

Did they REALLY expect that PAD would just roll over and go home

if they grenaded them out of Gov. House? Seems that way.

But then they maybe didn't look beyond the immediate goal.

Seems that is all the reds are doing now yet again.

Bring down the government... then WHAT?

Edited March 10, 2010 by animatic

[johncitizen]

I recall in 92, reports that the demonstrations had been 'joined' by very violent young, unidentifiable men on motorbikes- probably planted to justify an escalation in repression. (ie- bringing down the iron boot- hard!).

This year- same same... but different!

[blaze]

Good point. This is NOT a middle class college student revolution. If it was, it would be much more credible, and much more likely to succeed. The students are smart enough to realize Thaksin reds have nothing to do with democracy and progress for Thailand. If they had both the students AND the workers, that would be very powerful. But they don't, and they won't.

Yes a very strong point, the most educated kids who usually DO lean quite left,

are NOT, very obviously NOT, supporting this debackle.

Do 'most' educated kids in THailand lean to the left? Do they lean at all? Even in the west nowdays, university students tend to be much more apolitical than they were in the sixties and seventies- My experience with university students in Thailand is that they are even more conservative than their parents.

[hammered]

Good point. This is NOT a middle class college student revolution. If it was, it would be much more credible, and much more likely to succeed. The students are smart enough to realize Thaksin reds have nothing to do with democracy and progress for Thailand. If they had both the students AND the workers, that would be very powerful. But they don't, and they won't.

Yes a very strong point, the most educated kids who usually DO lean quite left,

are NOT, very obviously NOT, supporting this debackle.

Do 'most' educated kids in THailand lean to the left? Do they lean at all? Even in the west nowdays, university students tend to be much more apolitical than they were in the sixties and seventies- My experience with university students in Thailand is that they are even more conservative than their parents.

I think it is difficult to even get an opinion these days on politics. I dont know whether that is because they are apoltical or because in universities they tend to be in groups mixed form all over the country and have to think carefully about what they say considering current tensions and even hatreds.

It is weird but while some seem to have become more politicsed, some would say indoctrinated, others seem to have become less so.

There isnt really a left and right in Thailand as we understand it too. Thailand remains very conservative in many respects right across current divisions with a few minority exceptions