Rain This Year

[track61]

I realize it's a crap shoot but does anybody have a strong opinion about how much rain we may, or may not, get this year. I live about 90kms NW of Korat and have 3 rice farms, total of 48 rai. 2 are near the house, 15 rai, close to a canal, easy to move water and has a large pond (25mX30mX5m) so a lot of water storage. 25 rai has small pond next to canal and easy to move water but not much storage. I think with just a little rain the 15 rai will be OK but the 25 rai is shaky. The last farm is 8 rai, about 4kms from the house and needs normal rainfalls or forget it.

Everything I read says little or no rain this year. Last year we got around 15,000 kgs, haven't sold any and use about 10 bags/year (800kgs). Since I don't have any way to till I have to pay for someone else to do it, and with everything else it is expensive to plant. I am concerned that we are going to be throwing good money after bad. For sure I don't want to plant the 8 rai and question doing the 25. Seems to me we should let those 2 farms lie this year, plant the 15 rai, hold last years crop and hope. 'Course I have to get the family to agree and have you ever tried to convince a Thai farmer not to plant?

If anyone else has any feelings, intuitions, dreams, visions, etc. they would certainly be considered and appreciated. If you have an idea how to talk my mother-in-law into not planting I'd like to hear that as well.

As an alternative, is it possible/practical to till and sow the rice and then cover it. If it rains maybe it will work out, if it doesn't will the rice not germinate until next year?? Thanks in advance for any info provided.

[gotlost]

Your guess is as good as anybodies. Its going to be a crap shoot this year. Whish you the best.

[Maizefarmer]

It's not looking good - but then thats exactly when commodity prices go up and you get the best price for any crop you can grow.

[finner]

EXACTLY MF, welcome to the world of farming track 61. Having said that though, I haven't seen a year yet that there wasn't enough rain for at least one rice crop

[Gary A]

Predicting rain is like predicting the currency exchange rates. The exchange rates are not looking good either.

[gotlost]

If it tried to rain in Kap Choeng at the moment it would turn to snow it's that cold.

[slapout]

track, I am not a magic man so rain forecast is out of my expertise area, as are most things in life. Seed if treated can lie in ground for several weeks while awaiting rain, but the varmints/birds seem to find a lot during this time. I have waited 1 month for moisture to sprout and bring up small grain and all went fairly well, growth, yield etc. Another time the longed for rain was a real gully washer and the seed was washed away, complete failure. All farmers have to be eternal optimists when it comes to the weather, thus I do not recall hearing of non planting of a crop based on weather guesstimates. If anyone would have tried to talk my great grandfather, grandfather, father into laying all land fallow for a year (government and subsquent payment excepted), they would have laughed and asked how they would eat, much less live.

[Loom]

Here's a rainfall forecast for the next few months:

http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/fore...s_EN_150116.pdf

[teletiger]

This is the first year since I've been here in Khao Yai, (2002) that it has not rained last week of Feb, first week of March. Our first corn crop is usually in by now.

We've taken the decision to lay down irrigation on 8 rai. Being the end of the dry season our pond is low so the water will have to come from the bore. 4 rai sweetcorn 2 rai each of chilli and tomato. Normally its 40/50 rai maize.

Bit of a wake-up call. We've been meaning to extend the pond for 2 years now. My old scout master wouldn't be impressed.

If it doesn't rain by the first week of April then we'll forget the first corn crop and wait for August. Our April rain can be the heaviest of the year, so planting seed then is chancing it. (neighbour wouldn't be too pleased with our corn popping up in his sugarcane )

Good luck to anyone planting out there.

Regards.

[farmerjo]

Good start to the year here,normally average 4.5 inches for april and have had 6 this year.

Credit to the thai farmers around ,busy improving their plots to enhance the look and effectiveness of their land.

[billd766]

Here's a rainfall forecast for the next few months:

http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/fore...s_EN_150116.pdf

Thanks for that website.

I am not a farmer and around here in the central region is a mixed bag of crops.

We are now just getting towards proper rainfalls but only a couple of times a week.

My moo ban has had no government water supply for over 5 weeks.

Edited May 2, 2010 by billd766

[gotlost]

Here in Chiang Mai we have had as of today 30.7mm ytd. Normal ytd should be 90.8mm.Source

www.tmd.go.th/en Whats wrong with this picture?

[Robroy]

I'm not sure if anyone realises it, but SE Asia is in the grip of an El Nino climate event since mid-2009.

This probably accounts for the low rainfall, and the extreme heat we are experiencing right now.

El Nino events typically last 12 month, and this one is due to start decaying any time now:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/curre.../QuickLook.html

If that happens (they occasionally go for up to 18 months) we should be on track for a 'normal' June, or at least July.