D-day Arrives But How Big A Price Will Thailand Pay?

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

D-day arrives but how big a price will the country pay?

By Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- A call by groups of journalists, academics and business communities urging all parties to exercise restraint and not use violence against each other during the red-shirt demonstration this weekend will be in vain.

The political power play has gone far beyond compromise - and peace can exist only in a compromising atmosphere.

Those who emerged in the name of peace are neither neutral agents nor honest brokers, but manufacturers of consent, shaping public opinion against their opponents.

These peace lovers spoke no differently from the authorities who they believe tend to use less violence than the others.

Both sides, indeed, are not in a mood for compromise. What they are doing now is not a solution to end the conflict, but a battle with different tactics to win over the other.

The government, with collaboration from the mainstream media, managed to portray itself as an angel and the red-shirt group as former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's evil lackeys - ready to use all violent means to bring their boss back to power.

Visions of last April's bloodshed have been planted in the public mind many times a day to show the red-shirt group is nothing but a bloodthirsty monster.

Even a foreign diplomat like British Ambassador Quinton Quayle subscribed to such discourse as he rushed to see Pheu Thai Party leader Yongyut Wichaidit on Tuesday, to urge the party with its strong links to the red shirts not to use violence in the weekend demonstrations.

Nobody knows what exactly will happen this weekend, but Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban floated many ideas and led the public to understand the red protesters would explode at some 40 locations around Bangkok.

As the person who oversees security matters, Suthep recommended his Cabinet members find 'safe houses' for themselves.

Government intelligence anticipated some 1 million red protesters and Suthep expected even more angry demonstrators would march into the capital on March 12-14.

The Cabinet approved a more than Bt200-million budget for more than 50,000 armed forces and police to handle the situation. With such preparation, it is naive to say the government will refrain from using violence against the protesters.

The red-shirt movement seems to pay no attention to 'managed' public opinion against it. Image is unlikely of importance to them anymore, and they have failed to produce any counter discourse to shape public opinion.

Many of their leaders fed contradicting information to the public. Some, like Jaran Ditthapichai, said they would use peaceful ways - but many others such as Arisman Pongruangrong called people to set the capital in flames.

Many elements among the red shirts may have political ambitions far beyond bringing Thaksin back to power.

They might be fighting aristocrats for electoral democracy and justice, but the public knows little and the media does not highlight these points.

In the meantime, Thaksin's role in their movement cannot be ruled out. Many people might think it was fair for the court verdict to confiscate only 60 percent of his Bt 76 billion assets - but it's hard for him to keep the remaining Bt 30 billion from the authorities easily.

With tax and other charges, there would be a few hundred million baht returned to him eventually.

From Thaksin's point of view, toppling his administration with a military coup, installation of his opponent into power and seizure of most of his assets was not a fair play with any compromises.

-- The Nation 2010-03-11

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[siampolee]

A quote from elswhere concerning the real motives of Thaksin

Ai Maew (Thaksin) used to be very common man who is struggling to make the end meet by get as much money as possible because he is money maniac who thought that money could buy ANYTHING he wants

After beocming a billionaire, he wants more power to make everybody including those former creditors to kowtow him since he has power to order everything to go according to his wishes.

After getting power as Prime Minister, he wants Honors and Dignity to suppress his own humiliated past and to cover up his dyfunction family - want to be the Family of Roaring Lions instead of family of canines.

No wonder, Ai Maew (Thaksin) is going everything including buying MPs, Senators, the independent organizations to reach the Real Zenith of Thai Society but he forgets that no matter how high his status is, he still below the sky.

This is reason why he takes side with those Anti-Monarchy Malcontents which are the dregs of Thai Society who just have been redeemed by none other than His Majesty....

This is also the cause of his jealousiness against HM since he wants to have his own People, have his own National Flag, his own Supreme Patriarch, his own Politcal Dynasty and have his images hanging in every house in Thailand just like His Majesty while he(Thaksin) forget his own humble beginning.

How the one who betray the Nation like him (Thaksin) could rival against the Real Lord of Thailand? After all, Ai maew (Thaksin) is just like a firefly (flashing) a small light to compete with the Sun Indeed!

Edited March 11, 2010 by siampolee

[timekeeper]

A quote from elswhere concerning the real motives of Thaksin

Ai Maew (Thaksin) used to be very common man who is struggling to make the end meet by get as much money as possible because he is money maniac who thought that money could buy ANYTHING he wants

After beocming a billionaire, he wants more power to make everybody including those former creditors to kowtow him since he has power to order everything to go according to his wishes.

After getting power as Prime Minister, he wants Honors and Dignity to suppress his own humiliated past and to cover up his dyfunction family - want to be the Family of Roaring Lions instead of family of canines.

No wonder, Ai Maew (Thaksin) is going everything including buying MPs, Senators, the independent organizations to reach the Real Zenith of Thai Society but he forgets that no matter how high his status is, he still below the sky.

This is reason why he takes side with those Anti-Monarchy Malcontents which are the dregs of Thai Society who just have been redeemed by none other than His Majesty....

This is also the cause of his jealousiness against HM since he wants to have his own People, have his own National Flag, his own Supreme Patriarch, his own Politcal Dynasty and have his images hanging in every house in Thailand just like His Majesty while he(Thaksin) forget his own humble beginning.

How the one who betray the Nation like him (Thaksin) could rival against the Real Lord of Thailand? After all, Ai maew (Thaksin) is just like a firefly (flashing) a small light to compete with the Sun Indeed!

you can take a man out the gutter but not the gutter out of the man..........

[neverdie]

the time keeper is at it again

[elcent]

Congratulation K Supalak, well observed.

During all the time of positioning either group into the best light, no attempts have been made to calm the situation and to resort to democratic means like talk shows from opposite groups and from all walks of life under a neutral moderation team. The government is using dictatorial measures so does Thaksin (with his money power policies).

Calls for discussions have been deliberately ignored from all sides.

[timekeeper]

the time keeper is at it again

i love the smell of vitriol in the morning......

[cdnvic]

The next few days are going to be very busy. If anyone thinks the moderators will have any patience for silly infighting and name calling, they're wrong. Keep it up and be sidelined. This is the first and last warning.

[anotherpeter]

I can't believe this came out of "The Nation".

They never publish red propaganda.

[Gary A]

The farang political activists have as much control over the political situation as they have over the currency exchange rates. In fact if the exchange rates keep going in the direction they are going, we will likely have less political activists.

The bottom line is that the political activists have entirely too much time on their hands. I would advise them to find a hobby or something to spend their time on other than trying to be be a Thailand political expert. Affecting Thai politics is an exercise in futility.

[anotherpeter]

The farang political activists have as much control over the political situation as they have over the currency exchange rates. In fact if the exchange rates keep going in the direction they are going, we will likely have less political activists.

The bottom line is that the political activists have entirely too much time on their hands. I would advise them to find a hobby or something to spend their time on other than trying to be be a Thailand political expert. Affecting Thai politics is an exercise in futility.

But it's so much fun.

[Gary A]

The farang political activists have as much control over the political situation as they have over the currency exchange rates. In fact if the exchange rates keep going in the direction they are going, we will likely have less political activists.

The bottom line is that the political activists have entirely too much time on their hands. I would advise them to find a hobby or something to spend their time on other than trying to be be a Thailand political expert. Affecting Thai politics is an exercise in futility.

But it's so much fun.

You're right Peter. With some of the outrageous posts, they HAVE to be pot stirrers and then the other side posts even more outrageous statements.

[AGareth2]

I for one hope that this does not litterally become a burning issue

[Thai at Heart]

You're right Peter. With some of the outrageous posts, they HAVE to be pot stirrers and then the other side posts even more outrageous statements.

But figuratively, if we don't effect the situation, doesn't that mean we don't even have a pot to p**s in?

[kurtgruen]

Tomorrow

Sunny

36°C | 27°C

The above is the weather forcast for Bangkok tomorrow. They'll have some hot bodies, along with their hot tempers

Most tourists leave around this time of year anyways, along with many expats, to get away from the heat. This will affect tourism somewhat, but not as much, as if it were to happen in high season. By next winter, most people outside of Thailand will have forgotten about this.

Abhisit managed to run a functioning government so far and he will probably continue to do so after these demonstrations.

As far as some of the red politicians, in opposition, fleeing the country... they should. They have supported a violent, anti-government movement. Treason comes to mind.

In the West (US, Canada, etc.), these anti-government thugs would have been jailed a long time ago.

It will be interesting to see how this will unfold, but my money is on Abhisit, the military and the Powers that be.

I hope, against all hope, that this will be non-violent, because I hate to see innocent people hurt or killed. For most of them, their only crime is being poor and axcepting the few hundred Baht from Thaksin and his croonies, to come and demonstrate, in order to have more money, to feed their families

[Asa]

NATION-ASTV News?

[LomSak27]

BURNING ISSUE

D-day arrives but how big a price will the country pay?

Any way you look at it it won't cost the country as much as when PAD shut down the airport.

[grapetable]

Thaksin was democratically elected twice and the only polly who did anything for the less well off..............so Kurtgruen there is a huge grey area here between the reds and yellows, i dont believe its as clear cut as you say.......................the elitists have done nothing for the poor............the reds have every right to protest and many reasons of justification.

[hammered]

BURNING ISSUE

D-day arrives but how big a price will the country pay?

Any way you look at it it won't cost the country as much as when PAD shut down the airport.

If you value life more than money there is a lot of potential for it to far exceed that cost

[Indo-Siam]

Having watched the political street theater play itself out here over the past ten years, I sense that a tipping point may be fast approaching.

The vast majority of Thais are not highly politicized, and they are starting to get fed up.

So - visualize one of the Red Shirt gathering spots - say perhaps the Bangna-Trad intersection. 3,000 or 5,000 up-country protesters, along with perhaps 100 local Bangkok participants, mass in the roadway, and shut down traffic. They set up a stage, waving their red banners, singing, drinking Sangsom, and yelling at everyone around them.

Basically - 4,000 rabble-rousers from some remote part of the Kingdom travel to the neighborhood of some urban Thais, take over that neighborhood, and adopt a local "authority" over the local inhabitants, based on imposed anarchy and chaos.

What sort of reaction do they expect from local residents? Sympathy?

I'll tell you: They will get the same reaction as if you took 4,000 residents of Soi Thonglor, drove them to the center of Khon Kaen, and had them unload, assemble, shut down the city center, interfere with the local neighborhood, trash the place up, use the local streets as toilets, and try to intimidate the local residents.

It doesn't work very well.

You can't bring masses of outsiders into somewhat cohesive neighborhoods, and expect to effectively enlist local support.

And that is why the entire exercise will most likely fail. Rural peasants may think anarchy and chaos are no big deal. People used to living in dense urban environments tend to feel a bit differently about anarchy.

The next five days will be interesting.

Edited March 11, 2010 by Indo-Siam

[anotherpeter]

BURNING ISSUE

D-day arrives but how big a price will the country pay?

Any way you look at it it won't cost the country as much as when PAD shut down the airport.

That depends how long it goes on for and how bad it gets. We'll come back and look at this statement on Monday.

[johncitizen]

An excellent, well balanced article. Well done for allowing this one to slip past the government censors at the Nation!

Some points to take away from the article:

-There is likely to be a violent government crackdown

-The media is extremely biased against the reds, and have succeeded in superficialising their demands and making it seem as though it is "all about Thaksin"

-Calls for "peace" are largely a sham- because what these government sponsored projects are really calling for is not peace or compromise, but for the UDD to shut its mouth and go home.

What is needed is an actual solution: internationally monitored elections, internationally monitored corruption investigations against BOTH sides, a genuine truth and reconciliation commission, and most importantly a genuine effort at redistributing wealth to the masses of disenfranchised rural poor.

For the record, if corruption investigations were to be even-handed and served justice to even those normally considered untouchable, I would gladly see Thaksin return to serve his jail sentence. Thailand needs real change, and if the UDD plays it right, its time may have come.

But then, I doubt you anti-reds will take any notice of what I have just said, as you find it more convenient to go back to the tried and tested "But Thaksin blablabla." Lame.

[ballpoint]

What is needed is an actual solution: internationally monitored elections, internationally monitored corruption investigations against BOTH sides, a genuine truth and reconciliation commission, and most importantly a genuine effort at redistributing wealth to the masses of disenfranchised rural poor.

For the record, if corruption investigations were to be even-handed and served justice to even those normally considered untouchable, I would gladly see Thaksin return to serve his jail sentence. Thailand needs real change, and if the UDD plays it right, its time may have come.

If you actually paid any attention to what the majority of anti red posters were writing you'd have seen that we have been advocating just such a solution. However, I have yet to see the red leaders, as a group, bring up any of these points. No mention, other than in one propaganda piece you have plastered over here, has been made of internationally monitored elections. No mention at all of internationally monitored corruption trials. To say that these are the stated aims of the red shirt leadership is a downright lie. And, until we see the red leaders standing as a group, making these statements in Thai, severing all ties to any political party, denouncing any members of the leadership that don't go along with them and publically expelling them from the movement, they will remain lies.

Edited March 11, 2010 by ballpoint

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