Usd, Gbp Or Euro

[OlRedEyes]

Of the USD, GBP and Euro, over the next 2 to 3 months, what would you choose to hold. Expected strength against each other, Baht not in the picture.

Would appreciate your input, why's most appreciated.

Methinks the Euro is oversold, but I don't really follow currencies.

Edited March 24, 2010 by OlRedEyes

[mtkman]

I think the Euro will rebound within the next 2 days. They will announce a solution to the greece problem and it will go back up. How far I have no clue though.

[sokal]

I voted Euro

[mommysboy]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

[neil324]

I think the Euro will rebound within the next 2 days. They will announce a solution to the greece problem and it will go back up. How far I have no clue though.

Looks like the IMF for greece.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...superstate.html

[Naam]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

one investor's junk is the other investor's treasure

[OlRedEyes]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

Why would you say the Euro is overvalued? Surely the market has already discounted Greece's problems as well as the other potential problems like Spain?

Wouldn't it then be at low already? Or do you expect further bad news.

Again, I'm not clued up on the markets at the moment, just using logic from old experience to try and assess.

IMF intervention instead of an EU bailout = crisis for Euro?

This is not for playing forex markets, though few will say no to a handy profit. I have to buy and hold something for the next couple of months. Maybe the $ is the least risk?

Edited March 24, 2010 by OlRedEyes

[churchill]

I think your right USD is the least worst of the 3 /

[khunjake]

I think your right USD is the least worst of the 3 /

Agree. For the near-term against any of the European currencies but not against any of the other Asian currencies.

[chiang mai]

I think your right USD is the least worst of the 3 /

Agree. For the near-term against any of the European currencies but not against any of the other Asian currencies.

I agree.

[roamer]

Portugal credit rating downgraded, expected but its a signal that the Euro might not be the best option in the short term.

BBC.

[ray23]

Dollar for now.

But as Naam points out there will be money in buying what is stressed today, in the long term.

My guess is eventually they will all come back.

[britmaveric]

Yank $ will be the best for near and far into the future.

[chiang mai]

Yank $ will be the best for near and far into the future.

Remind me again, did you not say 36 by Xmas and if so, Xmas in which year?

[britmaveric]

^40 by Xmas!

[chiang mai]

^40 by Xmas!

Ah, understood, sorry I got it wrong.

[sokal]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

I agree with FOFOA on this

Two important differences between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. The first is the separation of currency creation from the control of a single sovereign government, or the elimination of "exorbitant privilege". And the second is the demonetization of gold making it a supporting reserve asset instead of a competing currency. The Fed views gold as a competing currency.The ECB, on the other hand, revalues all European gold reserves every three months to their market value, reflecting the very real rise in reserves. The Fed still has US gold booked at its 1973 price of $42.22 per ounce.

-The ECB's only mandate is price stability.The Fed has two conflicting mandates legislated by Congress. The ECB only has one. The Fed's two mandates are price stability and full employment. The ECB's only mandate is price stability. A third, unofficial and unspoken mandate of the Fed is to guarantee the funding of the US Treasury to pay for its ever-growing deficit.

- the ECB's one mandate is the one that is good for the savers and the capital accumulators.

- ECB is independent of the state. FED is lapdog of the state.

- ECB supports orthodox solutions to states in crisis. FED supports unorthodox (QE) solutions.

-ECB is more democratic through its multi-polar membership. FED is more plutocratic.

-ECB is defensive in its protection of euro stability. FED is offensive against competition through collusion with its primary banks.

-ECB allows healthy competition with its currency through the marked to market freegold concept. FED stifles competition to hide its weaknesses.

[sokal]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

Why would you say the Euro is overvalued? Surely the market has already discounted Greece's problems as well as the other potential problems like Spain?

Wouldn't it then be at low already? Or do you expect further bad news.

Again, I'm not clued up on the markets at the moment, just using logic from old experience to try and assess.

IMF intervention instead of an EU bailout = crisis for Euro?

This is not for playing forex markets, though few will say no to a handy profit. I have to buy and hold something for the next couple of months. Maybe the $ is the least risk?

Portugal and Greece are now selling dollar denominated bonds. I am guessing they are doing this so that they can get a bailout from the Fed because they know that the ECB will not print Euros to bail them out.

[sokal]

Yank $ will be the best for near and far into the future.

Anyone holding dollars lost money over the last 10 years, so if your idea of "the best" is losing purchasing power over time then you will be happy holding dollars for another 10 years.

[britmaveric]

^Nah I made dosh.

[sokal]

Jim Rogers-

[flying]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

[mommysboy]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

[sokal]

Judging by the replies so far, like usual, being bearish on the dollar is the contrarian play.

[flying]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

What old drunk said That's the short term trend in my view. ?

Hey one guess is as good/rubbish as another

Edited March 24, 2010 by flying

[Abrak]

I rather feel this topic is vaguely surreal. Imagine it was a topic on which car you would buy given a choice between a moped, a bicycle and a pair of running shoes.

[chiang mai]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

You might want to think that through again MMB, particularly your definition of short term. If you're saying to yourself that those three currencies are going through a rough patch right now and yes, they all have further to fall, but only for a short while and then they'll recover and it'll be business as usual once again, that smacks of denial and you might want to ask yourself, what if they never come back to their CURRENT levels again for the next ten years. From some of the things you've written it strikes me that you think everything will return to normal inside six months and that simply isn't going to happen.

[Naam]

i admire experts who are able to forecast currency movements and wish i had a small fraction of the billions they are making

[OlRedEyes]

Wasn't really looking for expert short-term forecasting, such an animal is a myth. What I am looking for is insight into possible sinkholes in the short-term for the 3, as I haven't been watching the road.

Not looking for profit, looking for least risk in the short term. Seems to me, even from what is said here, that that is probably the USD. Just thought that as things settle around the Greek crisis, the Euro may rise, as it's seems to have fallen heavily. There does seem to be opinion though that it is still sitting on a ledge that may see it fall again? Or not, as the PIGS are well discounted I'd have thought. Main concern in the market is a bust-up of the Euro totally?

Doesn't seem to be much short-term hope around for the GBP upside-wise generally, on the other hand, is there much downside? Possibly.

Medium-longer term, is easier. I disagree they are all about to be flushed. Against what. If those economies don't recover, what market will rise against them as there'd be no customers. China? I don't think so, I think China is close to an almighty implosion itself. Brazil and India are better bets, yet still don't have the buying power to rise without exporting to the US/EU. Poor old Ozzie is so closely tied to China now that when China stops buying it's mining output, which I'd guess is not far away, it's gonna hurt more than anyone else. Japan has been struggling for a long time, and seems to be trapped as well, no way up.

Edited March 25, 2010 by OlRedEyes

[flying]

Not looking for profit, looking for least risk in the short term.

Not interested in a mix of metals & currency?