Usd, Gbp Or Euro

[chiang mai]

Wasn't really looking for expert short-term forecasting, such an animal is a myth. What I am looking for is insight into possible sinkholes in the short-term for the 3, as I haven't been watching the road.

Not looking for profit, looking for least risk in the short term. Seems to me, even from what is said here, that that is probably the USD. Just thought that as things settle around the Greek crisis, the Euro may rise, as it's seems to have fallen heavily. There does seem to be opinion though that it is still sitting on a ledge that may see it fall again? Or not, as the PIGS are well discounted I'd have thought. Main concern in the market is a bust-up of the Euro totally?

Doesn't seem to be much short-term hope around for the GBP upside-wise generally, on the other hand, is there much downside? Possibly.

Medium-longer term, is easier. I disagree they are all about to be flushed. Against what. If those economies don't recover, what market will rise against them as there'd be no customers. China? I don't think so, I think China is close to an almighty implosion itself. Brazil and India are better bets, yet still don't have the buying power to rise without exporting to the US/EU. Poor old Ozzie is so closely tied to China now that when China stops buying it's mining output, which I'd guess is not far away, it's gonna hurt more than anyone else. Japan has been struggling for a long time, and seems to be trapped as well, no way up.

One of the problems is that asking this question now means that it's very late in the day because much of the currency losses have already been sustained, that doesn't imply however that there's probably not a lot more to come - I dread to think how many Brits for example are still holding all their assets in Sterling thinking that the position will recover soon whereas the likelihood is that Sterling may get much worse.

I think that whatever strategy you may develop needs to be an adaptive one based on time, in the short term GBP into USD isn't a bad solution but I strongly suspect that GBP into THB, SGD or similar is a better one that has a longer duration. But current forecasts for long dated gilts estimate 5% by year end and by that time Sterling will almost certainly have absorbed the majority of its losses and will once again begin to have a premium associated with it as interest rates rise. I've bet my bank by holding a mix of currencies that are all available within one month, the mix is broadly 60% in THB & SGD, 30% in USD and 10% in GBP, by the end of this year I would expect that my GBP component may be much higher. For what it's worth, I think the key question that people need to ask themselves in this kind of situation is, what's my home currency because that influences the best strategy, unfortunately that's a question that's far too emotional for most expats to be able to answer logically and sensibly.

[lannarebirth]

i admire experts who are able to forecast currency movements and wish i had a small fraction of the billions they are making

It's a lot easier to have a pretty good idea of what is about to happen than it is to profit handsomely from it. The only reliable thing I know is to buy something you know something about when it's cheap.

That said, yesterdays move not too hard to call as long thin candles burn fastest:

[chiang mai]

i admire experts who are able to forecast currency movements and wish i had a small fraction of the billions they are making

It's a lot easier to have a pretty good idea of what is about to happen than it is to profit handsomely from it. The only reliable thing I know is to buy something you know something about when it's cheap.

That said, yesterdays move not too hard to call as long thin candles burn fastest:

I like that one.

[mommysboy]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

You might want to think that through again MMB, particularly your definition of short term. If you're saying to yourself that those three currencies are going through a rough patch right now and yes, they all have further to fall, but only for a short while and then they'll recover and it'll be business as usual once again, that smacks of denial and you might want to ask yourself, what if they never come back to their CURRENT levels again for the next ten years. From some of the things you've written it strikes me that you think everything will return to normal inside six months and that simply isn't going to happen.

No I am saying the dollar has recovered, the pound will gain only a little if at all, and the Euro has further to fall. Remember we are comparing 3 currencies. I must concede against the baht (or any other currency) I just don't know. It appears to me shockingly over valued. But as I learn I see that currencies can go on being under or overvalued for years and years.

The pound in isolation: I hope it is now stripped bare and we are back at fundamentals. After all you can't go on with QE infinitum, the interest rate can't go lower, debt is being paid down, and growth has only one way to go. Surely the storm is over. Whatever happens now, it won't be about fundamentals will it?

[chiang mai]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

You might want to think that through again MMB, particularly your definition of short term. If you're saying to yourself that those three currencies are going through a rough patch right now and yes, they all have further to fall, but only for a short while and then they'll recover and it'll be business as usual once again, that smacks of denial and you might want to ask yourself, what if they never come back to their CURRENT levels again for the next ten years. From some of the things you've written it strikes me that you think everything will return to normal inside six months and that simply isn't going to happen.

No I am saying the dollar has recovered, the pound will gain only a little if at all, and the Euro has further to fall. Remember we are comparing 3 currencies. I must concede against the baht (or any other currency) I just don't know. It appears to me shockingly over valued. But as I learn I see that currencies can go on being under or overvalued for years and years.

The pound in isolation: I hope it is now stripped bare and we are back at fundamentals. After all you can't go on with QE infinitum, the interest rate can't go lower, debt is being paid down, and growth has only one way to go. Surely the storm is over. Whatever happens now, it won't be about fundamentals will it?

That's where we differ (although I do note that you used the word "hope"), I think the Pound can go lower, much lower indeed and yes, it is about fundamentals. As long as the debt remains then so the value of the Pound will remain low, until such time as the markets can see that there is a sensible longer term plan to eradicate the deficit - the wild card for the UK though remains the impact of inflation which now seems almost assured, if the gilts picture is anything to go by. I think there's only one hope for a an earlier out from all of this, a clear Conservative win followed by a strong and sensible budget, that last part however is likely to mean some radical changes in the UK profile and all of that put together may just be a bit too much to hope for.

[VegasVic]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack

[flying]

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack

Hey VV good to see you ....We need the bump you always bring to gold

Remember when I bought all mine at 735? You kept telling me wait for the 400 range

Anyway as you can see by my post I voted for the USD out of the 3 to pick from so you should be happy for that eh?

Take Care & good to hear from you

[Naam]

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack...

and argue as convincing as Jehova's Witnesses but it should be mentioned that Flying is a rather moderate goldbug (he doesn't like being tagged with this expression) and his arguments carry more weight and wisdom than those of the "witnesses". he argues more like a Mormon suggesting a multiple of wives

[Naam]

"The pound in isolation: I hope it is now stripped bare and we are back at fundamentals. After all you can't go on with QE infinitum, the interest rate can't go lower, debt is being paid down, and growth has only one way to go. Surely the storm is over. Whatever happens now, it won't be about fundamentals will it?"

today, dear children, we learn about wishful thinking

[flying]

he argues more like a Mormon suggesting a multiple of wives

heheh Thanks...I think

[LindsayBKK]

I voted Euro as it will return when Greece has been given a loan to pay off it's debts.

The USD will fall as the economic climate improves as will Gold, Oil etc.

Euro should be preferred currency over USD. US markets can not be trusted in future.

Even my AUD may fall. But then again in the 70's an AUD was worth more than a USD

so anything is possible.

[sokal]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack

If 10 years of beating all asset classes and stock indexes is not enough evidence that gold bugs know something then what is ? We already proved that we are right, look at the price <deleted>.

[Abrak]

If 10 years of beating all asset classes and stock indexes is not enough evidence that gold bugs know something then what is ? We already proved that we are right, look at the price <deleted>.

Back way back when I suspect Gordon Brown went to the BOE and said 'as gold as underperformed every asset class for the last 20 years, it is plainly and obviously a sell and you are complete idiots for holding it. I am right and you know nothing.'

As an investment argument it is so horrendously illogical and stupid it defies belief.

[Naam]

All 3 are headed right down the toilet.....

But the USD surprisingly or not will be the last to be flushed.

But flushed it shall be.

So......if these three is all you have I guess USD will be last man standing....before he too falls

Rubbish. They'll all recover, particularly the Euro, and the dollar, and even the pound.

But the dollar has been down, the pound is down, and Euro yet to bottom. That's the short term trend in my view.

But now I've mentioned trend perhaps that old drunk will post up some silly pic. or other probably a pair of flares or something .

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack

If 10 years of beating all asset classes and stock indexes is not enough evidence that gold bugs know something then what is ? We already proved that we are right, look at the price <deleted>.

= bull² !

[Naam]

If 10 years of beating all asset classes and stock indexes is not enough evidence that gold bugs know something then what is ? We already proved that we are right, look at the price <deleted>.

Back way back when I suspect Gordon Brown went to the BOE and said 'as gold as underperformed every asset class for the last 20 years, it is plainly and obviously a sell and you are complete idiots for holding it. I am right and you know nothing.'

As an investment argument it is so horrendously illogical and stupid it defies belief.

you mean one can't say "i didn't die during the last 10 years so i'm proved right claiming i won't die within the next 10 years?"

[Pib]

I voted Euro

Why? Arguably the most overpriced of the three.

I'd hold dollars. I woudn't hold GBP at all as it is not a reserve currency.

one investor's junk is the other investor's treasure

Ain't that the Currency Traders Truth!

[flying]

Mommysboy, Don't be concerned about flyings post, after all you must consider the source he is a gold/silver bug Goldbugs believe that all fiat currencies are worthless and someday soon gold will reign as king again You can try and reason with a goldbug until you are blue in the face and it will have no effect, these folks are a breed apart, they are like conspiracy theorists on crack

Hey VV good to see you ....We need the bump you always bring to gold

What did I say?

Anytime Vic comes & knocks gold it goes up the next day

Vic is like a dollar cooler