Thai Baht Nears 22-month High

[tigermonkey]

So what's all the fuss ? Yanks and Brits are crying in their suds, because they can't buy as much now --this has very little relevsnce in global economics.

Most of my funds come from Canada -- the Canadian dollar has slowly and steadily risen against the baht for some time -- and risen greatly against US dollar, Euro and Pound sterling -- even in the time of a national election in Canada, which traditionally lowers the CDN dlooar.

I'm happy, but I also have no relevsnce in global economics -- we are merely observers !

[jitenshaman]

i dont understand why the Thai Baht still strong

mamasans in Nana paying off the Central Bank

[Naam]

To be honest, I resent the number of pensioners/holidaymakers out here who think they have a right to screw the local girls for a pittance and stride around thinking they are god's gift to the Asian economies. I hope that the western currencies fall to a level where this is no longer affordable and that the Asians can earn more by getting educated and working in a "normal" job.

seconded!

[David006]

You guys don't understand currency exchange.

Here is a good starting point: Click Me

Best case scenario, if there are no natural disasters, terrorist attacks, real estate crashes, stock market crashes, unexpected expenditures from new health care bills, if absolutely everything goes as planned, the US gov will be paying 50% of its tax revenue towards interest payments on its debt in ten years.

Think about that a bit.

Well, you probably didn't make it through my post. You should have, instead you probably opened another sin sot thread and cracked another Singha, even though your belly really could use a break. It won't be long until you and many of your kind are starting threads about how "Don't the dumb Thais know that 25 baht to a dollar hurts tourism?" and "Gold? Why is it so expensive? It looks tacky".

ouch! maybe you need a beer mate....somebody pee'd on your cornflakes this am?....

Lighten up a little ...your belly will thank you...

[Lite Beer]

Off Topic post deleted

[simpathy]

To be honest, I resent the number of pensioners/holidaymakers out here who think they have a right to screw the local girls for a pittance and stride around thinking they are god's gift to the Asian economies. I hope that the western currencies fall to a level where this is no longer affordable and that the Asians can earn more by getting educated and working in a "normal" job.

seconded!

ScREWING IS A NORMAL JOB,,,,, to them .

dont you realize thais use hookers way more than the farang. whats gonna change wo the farang sex dollars?

[favre04]

China's property market will crash within 18 months.

The baht's tied to the yuan.

If you're holding baht, you will get CREAMED.

Short the euro, pound, and go long on the greenback.

And remember me as the bitch who told you so.

[jackinthebox]

You guys don't understand currency exchange.

Here is a good starting point: Click Me

Best case scenario, if there are no natural disasters, terrorist attacks, real estate crashes, stock market crashes, unexpected expenditures from new health care bills, if absolutely everything goes as planned, the US gov will be paying 50% of its tax revenue towards interest payments on its debt in ten years.

Think about that a bit.

Well, you probably didn't make it through my post. You should have, instead you probably opened another sin sot thread and cracked another Singha, even though your belly really could use a break. It won't be long until you and many of your kind are starting threads about how "Don't the dumb Thais know that 25 baht to a dollar hurts tourism?" and "Gold? Why is it so expensive? It looks tacky".

Before I get too carried away on the froth of my Singha, look at the education system. Engineering and science under graduates are dominated by Asian students, the western students somehow find "history of art" and such bullshit easier and more "fulfilling". Yeah, great, that'll get you a good job in politics.

Here in Stuttgart, Germany (home of Mercedes-Benz and Porsche :-) with a University very famous for Engineering and Architecture you got hundreds of Asian students - but not one single Thai. Thai nationals are for 100% spouses of german guys, hanging around in bars and gambling silly slot machines. At the Campus you hear more chinese and korean than german, but I've never heard a single word of thai...

[aussiejosh]

In my year group of 134 we had 9 students do engineering, I think 2 of them were asian.

[brianbiegler]

""To be honest, I resent the number of pensioners/holidaymakers out here who think they have a right to screw the local girls for a pittance and stride around thinking they are god's gift to the Asian economies""

This I can agree with, but not so much as I would resent someone who thought as such. I'd be more inclined to think them moronic/sheltered or misinformed. This type of "holidaymaker" is by NO means only western as there are loads of other Asians that fit into this stereotype. I think the western ones are just easier to pick out because of behavior, skin color, or whatever. And they talk more shit. Take away the western pensioner screwing for a pittance and you leave the Thai (first and foremost) followed by the Japanese/Korean/Chinese in no certain order...all happy to screw for a pittance. It's not a racial thing, its a money thing.

I'll agree with you that there is development in Asia and at times it seem to be quite strong. But I've got to counter with the question, how well are those investments going to be doing in 5 years? If you think foresight is a gift shared my most Thais then you see something that I don't see. I see lots of projects going up that look a lot like projects that are left to decay and rot from 10 years ago.

Finally, the last thing I'd ever do is make a comparison between ANY aspect of Thai education with ANY other developed country. That in itself is a huge topic to broach but I'll just put out there that the problems aren't all due to lack of funding. I know some really bright people in the Thai university system and they are all swimming upstream against vast floods of bureaucracy and corruption. The Western education systems aren't perfect but the fact is they are light years ahead of places like Thailand. I don't think you have to look much further than the fact that the goal of post-grads in the sciences, for instance, is to go abroad as much as possible if not for the whole term.

[Heng]

If you think foresight is a gift shared my most Thais then you see something that I don't see.

It doesn't have to be for 'most' Thais, just the few million that control most of the wealth. I think you'll find that the concept of inheritance is more the norm in Asia, and certainly Thailand than in a lot of other cultures where there is less family cohesion (granted, there are certain Western ethnic groups that have families that behave in the same way: many Jews, Italians, Greeks, for example). Again, I'm talking about the 20% that 'matter' in economic calculations, not the 80% who certainly have their purpose as well. It's more common to think of the next generation, your grandchildren etc, when buying property. In the west, it's more commonly 'how much can I sell this for 5-15 years down the road so I can retire somewhere tropical, f#ck junior and his offspring.'

Foresight.

As for why there isn't much panic, it's like comparing the cash balance sheets of Singapore Airlines vs. say United or Delta. There's not as much to worry about when you have low or no debt, no overdraft, etc.

[TheItaliann]

Lots of different ideas in this thread.

It really just comes down to spending more then you make and importing more than you export.

Socialism and War will destroy you, as history has shown us over and over and over again.

[ThanonFarang]

Lots of different ideas in this thread.

Indeed. I have concluded that nobody has any idea what they are talking about. I just bought a condo here but am still keeping all of my living expenses in USD and converting them to THB in small pieces as needed. I think this is an appropriate hedge for the next 5-10 years at least. My life should be pretty much the same whether the Baht goes to 25:1 or 45:1. Hopefully property prices here continue to hold and I'll be okay. fuc_k junior and his offspring...

[VegasVic]

China's property market will crash within 18 months.

The baht's tied to the yuan.

If you're holding baht, you will get CREAMED.

Short the euro, pound, and go long on the greenback.

And remember me as the bitch who told you so.

The Euro and the Pound will have their dead cat bounce for a little while here, but your suggestion to short the Euro and the Pound and go long the Dollar for the reaminder of this year is sound advice I think that China's hiccup will arrive sooner than 18 months from now (perhaps late this year or early nextyear) but it will happen

[sokal]

i dont understand why the Thai Baht still strong

Count me in

Intervention/Manipulation

The Thai balance sheet looks great, investors don't care about Thai politics.

[roamer]

i dont understand why the Thai Baht still strong

Count me in

Intervention/Manipulation

The Thai balance sheet looks great, investors don't care about Thai politics.

Really. Well if the "politics" continue in the way they have the last few days then the balance sheet won't look so good and they might care about the politics. Not you I know, but then every minute.....

And if people are still asking this question this time next year I'll eat their hats as well as my own.

[wintermute]

You guys don't understand currency exchange.

Here is a good starting point: Click Me

Best case scenario, if there are no natural disasters, terrorist attacks, real estate crashes, stock market crashes, unexpected expenditures from new health care bills, if absolutely everything goes as planned, the US gov will be paying 50% of its tax revenue towards interest payments on its debt in ten years.

Think about that a bit.

Well, you probably didn't make it through my post. You should have, instead you probably opened another sin sot thread and cracked another Singha, even though your belly really could use a break. It won't be long until you and many of your kind are starting threads about how "Don't the dumb Thais know that 25 baht to a dollar hurts tourism?" and "Gold? Why is it so expensive? It looks tacky".

Nice one.

Just cracked open another Singha. And I totally agree with you.

There are just so many Westerners who simply haven't cottoned on to the BIG PICTURE and think that they have a right to cheap holidays in paradise. Sorry guys, the party is coming to an end. The bills have to be paid. The over developed western countries, with over developed social welfare, over developed governments, over developed real estate bullshit now have to come to terms with the reality that none of this is affordable and a lot cannot even be paid for, it was all purchased on the "never never". The Asian countries have been funding the debt saddled consumers of the West.

So the press is reporting an "economic recovery" in the west?? Yeah, sure, they are just pissing in the wind. A bit goes forward but the rest ends up running down your leg.

Just stop thinking that your Western country is superior and then look at what is happening in Asia. If you cannot see the incredible rate of development then you are blind. Every day I see new buildings, factories, shops opening up, private industry is booming and the government keeps out of the way. In the West all I see are increasing restrictions, policing, social benefits and pandering to the minorities. And all the costs pushed onto the backs of the helpless tax payers.

Asia is big enough to support itself without the West. There is a huge potential for development.

Before I get too carried away on the froth of my Singha, look at the education system. Engineering and science under graduates are dominated by Asian students, the western students somehow find "history of art" and such bullshit easier and more "fulfilling". Yeah, great, that'll get you a good job in politics.

To be honest, I resent the number of pensioners/holidaymakers out here who think they have a right to screw the local girls for a pittance and stride around thinking they are god's gift to the Asian economies. I hope that the western currencies fall to a level where this is no longer affordable and that the Asians can earn more by getting educated and working in a "normal" job.

I'm afraid that a lot of your contribution really does appear to be booze-induced.

One comment to pick up on is the reference to science and engineering graduates.

Yes, the focus in Eastern economies is commendable.

Unfortunately a lot of the learning is rote learning and many of the graduates are marginally employable.

In fact it is the softer managerial skills which are in short supply and this is where many expats come in.

An understanding of critical evaluation is not so easy to teach in a rote learning environment.

And as for your sneering re 'The History of Art', well I'll take a post-grad from the Courtauld Institute over what you are probably offering any day.

One of the amusing things about business is how people never seem to learn from history. I bet back in the 60-70's U.S. automakers riding the high of complete dominance similarly scoffed at Japanese engineering and business capabilities. Now flash forward to 2010 with most U.S. automakers insolvent and Toyota and Honda owning the global market for consumer passenger automobiles..who is laughing?

Similarly speaking I see this "rote memory" stereotype regurgitated a lot and this might be true for the lower echelon students but it's definitely not true for the lead business/engineering students in Asia. They typically study a Bachelors (with honors) in Asia then get their masters degree in a western country and get a lot of international business experience before heading back home to run the show.

If you look at the real captains of industry in Asia most of them have MBAs and PHDs from Universities like Harvard and have published trade newsletters regarding their expertise. These aren't farm hand yokels you're dealing with and to dismiss them is the utmost folly that i'm sure will haunt the major western economies in the next few decades to come.

The winds of change are coming whether you like it or not. Simply stereotyping people as "incapable" or regurgitating old racial tropes isn't going to stop reality from occurring.

Edited April 13, 2010 by wintermute

[Deeral]

THere seem to be a lot "one idea = the answer" type posts here

lovely phrases like "basic economics" etc - "socialism will destroy" - all of which indicate that most posts here are really only half-baked. Conclusions by those who really need to research more or know more about this subject.

Those who see the world in terms of economics and nothing more should re-evaluate their position

[roamer]

You guys don't understand currency exchange.

Here is a good starting point: Click Me

Best case scenario, if there are no natural disasters, terrorist attacks, real estate crashes, stock market crashes, unexpected expenditures from new health care bills, if absolutely everything goes as planned, the US gov will be paying 50% of its tax revenue towards interest payments on its debt in ten years.

Think about that a bit.

Well, you probably didn't make it through my post. You should have, instead you probably opened another sin sot thread and cracked another Singha, even though your belly really could use a break. It won't be long until you and many of your kind are starting threads about how "Don't the dumb Thais know that 25 baht to a dollar hurts tourism?" and "Gold? Why is it so expensive? It looks tacky".

Nice one.

Just cracked open another Singha. And I totally agree with you.

There are just so many Westerners who simply haven't cottoned on to the BIG PICTURE and think that they have a right to cheap holidays in paradise. Sorry guys, the party is coming to an end. The bills have to be paid. The over developed western countries, with over developed social welfare, over developed governments, over developed real estate bullshit now have to come to terms with the reality that none of this is affordable and a lot cannot even be paid for, it was all purchased on the "never never". The Asian countries have been funding the debt saddled consumers of the West.

So the press is reporting an "economic recovery" in the west?? Yeah, sure, they are just pissing in the wind. A bit goes forward but the rest ends up running down your leg.

Just stop thinking that your Western country is superior and then look at what is happening in Asia. If you cannot see the incredible rate of development then you are blind. Every day I see new buildings, factories, shops opening up, private industry is booming and the government keeps out of the way. In the West all I see are increasing restrictions, policing, social benefits and pandering to the minorities. And all the costs pushed onto the backs of the helpless tax payers.

Asia is big enough to support itself without the West. There is a huge potential for development.

Before I get too carried away on the froth of my Singha, look at the education system. Engineering and science under graduates are dominated by Asian students, the western students somehow find "history of art" and such bullshit easier and more "fulfilling". Yeah, great, that'll get you a good job in politics.

To be honest, I resent the number of pensioners/holidaymakers out here who think they have a right to screw the local girls for a pittance and stride around thinking they are god's gift to the Asian economies. I hope that the western currencies fall to a level where this is no longer affordable and that the Asians can earn more by getting educated and working in a "normal" job.

I'm afraid that a lot of your contribution really does appear to be booze-induced.

One comment to pick up on is the reference to science and engineering graduates.

Yes, the focus in Eastern economies is commendable.

Unfortunately a lot of the learning is rote learning and many of the graduates are marginally employable.

In fact it is the softer managerial skills which are in short supply and this is where many expats come in.

An understanding of critical evaluation is not so easy to teach in a rote learning environment.

And as for your sneering re 'The History of Art', well I'll take a post-grad from the Courtauld Institute over what you are probably offering any day.

One of the amusing things about business is how people never seem to learn from history. I bet back in the 60-70's U.S. automakers riding the high of complete dominance similarly scoffed at Japanese engineering and business capabilities. Now flash forward to 2010 with most U.S. automakers insolvent and Toyota and Honda owning the global market for consumer passenger automobiles..who is laughing?

Similarly speaking I see this "rote memory" stereotype regurgitated a lot and this might be true for the lower echelon students but it's definitely not true for the lead business/engineering students in Asia. They typically study a Bachelors (with honors) in Asia then get their masters degree in a western country and get a lot of international business experience before heading back home to run the show.

If you look at the real captains of industry in Asia most of them have MBAs and PHDs from Universities like Harvard and have published trade newsletters regarding their expertise. These aren't farm hand yokels you're dealing with and to dismiss them is the utmost folly that i'm sure will haunt the major western economies in the next few decades to come.

The winds of change are coming whether you like it or not. Simply stereotyping people as "incapable" or regurgitating old racial tropes isn't going to stop reality from occurring.

You generalize too much. Asia or Thailand ? Japan has around a dozen Uni's ranked in the worlds top 200, Hong Kong 5, Korea 6.....Thailand ? ZERO. You mentioned Toyota, captains of industry with MBA's etc, might I remind you it was the fact that virtually no one on the Toyota board had any Western experience that led to their disastrous handling of the braking crisis? That will change, Japan learns.

The winds of change ? I have yet to notice its presence in Thailand. I see satellite managed business's , my own belief is that these will move on to where the going gets easier. The innovation, the language skills, they simply don't exist in Thailand. Of course when they do lets see what you end up with. Thaksin, what was it MBA from Texas ? Abhisit, more of a recognized Western education including Oxford, speaks English like a native (unusual for someone born in Newcastle ) Net result, neither acceptable to half the nation.

The winds of change ? They are blowing slowly. The worst thing about your post is that I actually end up agreeing with Yoshiwara, and that is something I never thought would happen.

[wintermute]

You generalize too much. Asia or Thailand ? Japan has around a dozen Uni's ranked in the worlds top 200, Hong Kong 5, Korea 6.....Thailand ? ZERO. You mentioned Toyota, captains of industry with MBA's etc, might I remind you it was the fact that virtually no one on the Toyota board had any Western experience that led to their disastrous handling of the braking crisis? That will change, Japan learns.

Disastrous handling of the braking crisis? Uh..Toyota knew that in the bigger scheme of things it was a small blip in their business concerns. They addressed it as best as they could and moved on from there. As it stands that's exactly how it turned out despite the cries of the lawyer lynch mobs drummed up by U.S. competition and the media. A recall scandal mostly confined to America isn't going to halt 20+ years of Japanese consumer automotive dominance.

The winds of change ? I have yet to notice its presence in Thailand. I see satellite managed business's , my own belief is that these will move on to where the going gets easier. The innovation, the language skills, they simply don't exist in Thailand.

Here's a short list of competitive businesses in Thailand with a presence overseas and a growing competitive global model.

1) CP

2) Central group

3) Minor food group

Of course when they do lets see what you end up with. Thaksin, what was it MBA from Texas ? Abhisit, more of a recognized Western education including Oxford, speaks English like a native (unusual for someone born in Newcastle ) Net result, neither acceptable to half the nation.

Abhisit is a politician through and through so he's not even a legitimate example of what i'm talking about. Thaksin staked his fortune in telecom and did well but squandered it in a political gamble. These things have nothing to do with the bigger picture to be honest. You're missing out on the intra-asian trade and the global reduction in manufacturing and multinational presence in the west. This is something I deal with daily in my occupation.

Take a look at the shelves in the electronics or supermarkets in your home country sometime it might wake you up a bit from your opiate laden fantasy of eternal western business dominance. This isn't 1910 it's 2010. To be honest most of the major western nations have increasingly grown fat, lazy, and arrogant resting on past laurels squandering its future on superficial comfort.

The future? China, India, Brazil and the rest of Asia.

Edited April 13, 2010 by wintermute

[TigertheCat]

On a side issue,I invoice in Euro and it gets paid into SCB at the prevailing rate.

Is it possible to open an Euro account with a Thai or online bank so I can leave the funds for a better rate,and only withdraw when necessary.

[roamer]

My opium laden fantasy ? I disagreed with your post, so for that I'm a degenerate ? Guess I'm also imagining a degree from SOAS, whatever, get lost.

[roamer]

My opium laden fantasy ? I disagreed with your post, so for that I'm a degenerate ? Guess I'm also imagining a degree from SOAS, whatever, get lost.

You mind quoting where I called you a degenerate?

Anyways, F you too you ignorant reprobate.

Sorry I stand to be corrected. You merely said I was the victim of opium laden fantasy.

[TCA]

On a side issue,I invoice in Euro and it gets paid into SCB at the prevailing rate.

Is it possible to open an Euro account with a Thai or online bank so I can leave the funds for a better rate,and only withdraw when necessary.

Bank of Ayyudhya (sp?) offer Foreign Currency Deposit accounts. Low charges for international electronic deposits (with a max fee set) and free withdrawals in baht cash at the T/T rate. Can withdraw money at the bank branch where your account is or use an ATM card at any BofA cashpoint. I think you need to maintain a minimum balance of around €600

[palm]

In any other country with these problems, demonstrators getting free reign, tourists cancelling, major stores closed, economy wrecked, the currency would be dropping like a stone. The reason for its strength is quite clear to anyone.

lol, Economy wrecked? Not sure you are paying attention to economic fundamentals.

http://beta.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/47561.cfm

Thai exports surge 41% in March; record high in 17 months.

..a trade surplus of about $1.54 billion in March and $2.11 billion in the first three months of 2010.

4 roads in Bangkok closed. The remaining 99.99% remain open and normal. Who needs Central World anyway, everyone is just shopping in Emporium instead.

[chiang mai]

In any other country with these problems, demonstrators getting free reign, tourists cancelling, major stores closed, economy wrecked, the currency would be dropping like a stone. The reason for its strength is quite clear to anyone.

lol, Economy wrecked? Not sure you are paying attention to economic fundamentals.

http://beta.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/47561.cfm

Thai exports surge 41% in March; record high in 17 months.

..a trade surplus of about $1.54 billion in March and $2.11 billion in the first three months of 2010.

4 roads in Bangkok closed. The remaining 99.99% remain open and normal. Who needs Central World anyway, everyone is just shopping in Emporium instead.

Agreed, the most frequently asked question on TV of late, "why is the Baht so strong". Folks who say they don't understand why the Baht is so strong simply aren't looking at the facts or indeed even trying to understand why it is so, mostly what I think they are really saying is, God, I wish it were a lot weaker. But honestly, I do believe that those people are the ones who look at Thailand with a very surface view, sun, sea, booze and available women and that's all there must be here because it's all so dirty and inefficient and corrupt, nonsense.

[SpoliaOpima]

In any other country with these problems, demonstrators getting free reign, tourists cancelling, major stores closed, economy wrecked, the currency would be dropping like a stone. The reason for its strength is quite clear to anyone.

lol, Economy wrecked? Not sure you are paying attention to economic fundamentals.

http://beta.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/47561.cfm

Thai exports surge 41% in March; record high in 17 months.

..a trade surplus of about $1.54 billion in March and $2.11 billion in the first three months of 2010.

4 roads in Bangkok closed. The remaining 99.99% remain open and normal. Who needs Central World anyway, everyone is just shopping in Emporium instead.

Agreed, the most frequently asked question on TV of late, "why is the Baht so strong". Folks who say they don't understand why the Baht is so strong simply aren't looking at the facts or indeed even trying to understand why it is so, mostly what I think they are really saying is, God, I wish it were a lot weaker. But honestly, I do believe that those people are the ones who look at Thailand with a very surface view, sun, sea, booze and available women and that's all there must be here because it's all so dirty and inefficient and corrupt, nonsense.

Sort of obvious, isn't it? Maybe they should think about getting a job here, getting legal, and start earning some of that precious baht themselves.

[stingray]

i dont understand why the Thai Baht still strong

Where is it strong, it still weak. It was 25 to the USD, when i arrived in Thailand. So why all this wining about?

[rogercw]

One point to be made in favor of the baht strengthening more is foreign exchange reserves. Whatever Thailand may or may not be doing wrong economically it is doing one thing right by accumulating foreign exchange reserves. Reserves of 143 billion dollars place Thailand number 12 in the world. Taking populations into consideration Thailand has more than number one China. China has 2447 billion but about 20 times the population. Source wikipedia list of FEX reserves by country.

I hope the baht weakens so my pension goes further but as long as Thailand has huge reserves and continues to run a balance of payments surplus and increase them a weaker baht is but a dream.

[moo9]

In any other country with these problems, demonstrators getting free reign, tourists cancelling, major stores closed, economy wrecked, the currency would be dropping like a stone. The reason for its strength is quite clear to anyone.

The Baht WILL drop - strange volatility of currencies or stock markets ist a sign of near plump (like in Greece, Iceland or... :-)

UK ;-)