Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[centrico]

One can't help but notice discourse between the reds already - if the government waits much longer, this is going to develop into a country ruled by "warlords" , occupying different regions - Thailand will have similar situations like in Africa with the "hooties" and the Tooties" fighting for land.

so, it's better to have the generals running the show a la Burma, in order to stop the Reds having a militia?

I would have thought the unbridled power of a junta would be a much more likely situation to turn into a 'hootie', 'tootie' 'warlords' running the show...

sounds like the yellows dont want an election.. ever... again..

Even if the reds are left alone, there is clearly a divide already. In my opinion, they will not fizzle away, but realizing that they can not achieve their goal and are therefor in danger of spending serious time in prison, the leaders and hardcore reds will escape and probably split into 2 or more groups, going underground to fight a Guerrilla war. This is basically the same as Terrorism full scale and will bring the country to its knees.

You are dealing with people who are way past negotiations, people who have nothing to loose.

Unless the government takes the opportunity and moves in quick, making sure to capture all the leaders, forget Thailand for years to come as a place one would want to live

From talking to people I know that are Red they have little or no interest in Thaksin returning to power or in war. Most are disheartened with the current government and feel let down. I cannot see many wanting a Guerilla war or joining one. They will be outcast reds.

Another thing many people tend to forget and this touches on the Warlords idea is that in so many places the head honcho of the local Mafia has a lot of say in what goes on. I cannot see them wanting anything other than the rule of law they now dispense. And they do dispense the law as opposed to the local police.

[coe]

Another few attacks on US property,Mc Donald's, KFC, a odd bank and the place will swarm with SEAL,SWAT,CIA,and other teams,and mop-up the place.

I don't think so!!! Does the word 'sovereign' mean anything to you?

with various embassies staff "visiting" the reds at their protest sites a few days ago one wonders how sovereign is sovereign . note that it took a while before the thai govt protested these "visits"

[elkangorito]

Another few attacks on US property,Mc Donald's, KFC, a odd bank and the place will swarm with SEAL,SWAT,CIA,and other teams,and mop-up the place.

I don't think so!!! Does the word 'sovereign' mean anything to you?

with various embassies staff "visiting" the reds at their protest sites a few days ago one wonders how sovereign is sovereign . note that it took a while before the thai govt protested these "visits"

Really? Please do continue to tell us about such visits & ensuing events. I have never heard of such things. Web links would also be nice

[ding]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

[elkangorito]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

Not that I disagree with your comment but I think that it's more like 'a Thai populace that doesn't understand democracy'. This could've been dealt with a long time ago by somebody.

Edited May 1, 2010 by elkangorito

[whiterussian]

Really? Please do continue to tell us about such visits & ensuing events. I have never heard of such things. Web links would also be nice

SURPRISE.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday that U.S. diplomats were "intensively engaged in discussions" with Thai government officials and opposition forces, and EU diplomats said they have met with opposition figures as well.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3664...omats-udd-visit

The Foreign Ministry has sharply criticised overseas diplomats who met leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship last Friday.

Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, secretary to the foreign minister, yesterday said the diplomats who entered the protest site at Ratchaprasong intersection to talk with the UDD leaders had acted improperly and beyond the scope of their duties.

The ministry on Tuesday summoned Mr Rodriguez to discuss its concern about the diplomats' acceptance of invitations from the opposition Puea Thai Party and the UDD to meet with them on different occasions.

Edited May 1, 2010 by whiterussian

[coe]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

This is what happens when all side are not willing to compromise and only looking for their own interests, Thaksin, Yellow, and Red shirt alike. This is a country of everyone for themselves, Including you and I

There are no discipline that Democracy has a price, including giving your life for it

best post and decent comment in the whole of this tv "discussions".

kudos to you the writer/commentator.

[elkangorito]

Really? Please do continue to tell us about such visits & ensuing events. I have never heard of such things. Web links would also be nice

SURPRISE.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday that U.S. diplomats were "intensively engaged in discussions" with Thai government officials and opposition forces, and EU diplomats said they have met with opposition figures as well.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3664...omats-udd-visit

The Foreign Ministry has sharply criticised overseas diplomats who met leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship last Friday.

Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, secretary to the foreign minister, yesterday said the diplomats who entered the protest site at Ratchaprasong intersection to talk with the UDD leaders had acted improperly and beyond the scope of their duties.

The ministry on Tuesday summoned Mr Rodriguez to discuss its concern about the diplomats' acceptance of invitations from the opposition Puea Thai Party and the UDD to meet with them on different occasions.

I stand corrected & thanks for the links.

It only indicates one thing...'Thais' are too proud to accept help from others when clearly, external help is required.

[coe]

This is a power strugle being played out with the people as pawns

sadly true as always the people are reduced to pawns by politicians whose egos know no limits.

[whiterussian]

It only indicates one thing...'Thais' are too proud to accept help from others when clearly, external help is required.

All that is needed is a date. half way seems fair to me. if the reds bomb outside of BK and people die etc, then surely they will lose pop support. If the army kill the protestors they lose support,and world media portrays it as inherent in any country where the military elct the government. Maybe the yellows could get more support if they drag it out long enough without killing too many, or by letting the red shirts dig their own PR grave. For them a year of cat and mouse might just be worth it, after all they are already rich.

I dont know, just hope no one dies.

Edited May 1, 2010 by whiterussian

[gregb]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

I hope you are wrong.

The elected officials are not responsible enough to have direct control of the military. Thaksin trying to do this is what kicked off this whole mess. There is nothing wrong with the current system. If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

Thailand needs a somewhat independent military as a guiding hand for when the corrupt civilian government gets too far out of line. The military is corrupt also, but doesn't have any desire to try and rule the day to day activities of the Kingdom thus making them a little more responsible. You may not like this particular balance of power, but it is working. The military is slowly giving up its monopoly hold on various industries to the civilian establishment. This trend will continue. Give it time. I hope this whole ugly mess simply fades into the background and things go back to the status quo.

In several decades after the education system has been improved and people have learned how to think independently and learned the meaning of responsibility, maybe we can try it your way. For now, Thais are like children and the military is the only parent we've got. I hate to think what this country would become if you took that discipline away.

I don't want to run that experiment.

Edited May 1, 2010 by gregb

[lannarebirth]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

This is what happens when all side are not willing to compromise and only looking for their own interests, Thaksin, Yellow, and Red shirt alike. This is a country of everyone for themselves, Including you and I

[/size]There are no discipline that Democracy has a price, including giving your life for it

best post and decent comment in the whole of this tv "discussions".

kudos to you the writer/commentator.

Are we there yet?

Question:

What are the 8 elements of democracy?

Answer:

#1-Rule of law. Everyone must adhere to the same laws.

#2-Human Dignity. Citizens should protect and uphold the dignity of all people.

#3-Political Equality. Everyone has the same right to vote and run for office and to speak on public issues.

#4-Political Freedoms. People can speak freely and vote without intimidation.

#5-Common Good. Citizens work towards the common good (what will make people safe and happy).

#6-Being Informed and Getting Involved. Citizens should participate individually and collectively in issues that shape their community, nation and world.

#7-Personal Freedom. People enjoy freedom of religion and freedom of expressions.

#8-Respect. Citizens should respect the rights of others.

[lannarebirth]

It only indicates one thing...'Thais' are too proud to accept help from others when clearly, external help is required.

All that is needed is a date. half way seems fair to me. if the reds bomb outside of BK and people die etc, then surely they will lose pop support. If the army kill the protestors they lose support,and world media portrays it as inherent in any country where the military elct the government. Maybe the yellows could get more support if they drag it out long enough without killing too many, or by letting the red shirts dig their own PR grave. For them a year of cat and mouse might just be worth it, after all they are already rich.

I dont know, just hope no one dies.

Halfway would be longer than Abhisit offered initially.

[Jarearn]

็ำHello friends who like keeping informed through this great forum and website.

I could be wrong, but let's look at the facts please.

I find it amazing to read this from the article that starts this thread:

"The Reds have been on alert for a crackdown since April 10, when a failed attempt by the army to clear Bangkok's historic area turned into bloody street battles."

How can some people call it a failed attempt to clear Bangkok's historic area?

I'm sure you all must be able to see that the historic area around what happened on April 10th is much clearer now than before. I bet the staff of city hall, all the citizen's, and the tourists in that area are much happier now that the protest is somewhere else than on their doorstep.

Actually I know why it's called "failed" I think. Because the reds had democratic input and "decided" to regroup by the hospital, where they could be treated after realizing they'd suffer more losses if they stayed as two.

Fortunately most Thai people love each other, and so good will prevail in the end of the conflict. I pray it be soon.

Thank you to all the public servants keeping Thailand alive.

May peace reign in Thailand.

May peace prevail on Earth.

Lokah Samasthah Sukhino Bhavantu

Sawas Dee Krup

สวัสดีครับผม

Dylan (เจริญ)

[elkangorito]

My comments in blue.

I hope you are wrong.

The elected officials are not responsible enough to have direct control of the military.

Then who does?

Thaksin trying to do this is what kicked off this whole mess.

I somewhat agree with this concept but 'it all' started when the world around Thailand changed & Thailand did not want to change.

There is nothing wrong with the current system. If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

It is broke & it does need fixing. Take a look around you.

Thailand needs a somewhat independent military as a guiding hand for when the corrupt civilian government gets too far out of line.

Where do you come from? North Korea perhaps?

The military is corrupt also, (so true) but doesn't have any desire to try and rule the day to day activities of the Kingdom thus making them a little more responsible.

You must not have noticed the past 18 or so coups.

You may not like this particular balance of power, but it is working. The military is slowly giving up its monopoly hold on various industries to the civilian establishment. This trend will continue.

We all hope 'this trend continues' but recent history may suggest that the military can have complete control at the drop of a hat.

Give it time. I hope this whole ugly mess simply fades into the background and things go back to the status quo.

Unfortunately, the 'status quo' you speak of is highly unbalanced...toward the 'elite'.

In several decades after the education system has been improved and people have learned how to think independently and learned the meaning of responsibility, maybe we can try it your way. For now, Thais are like children and the military is the only parent we've got. I hate to think what this country would become if you took that discipline away.

'Discipline' aka 'indoctrination' is but one reason why this country is in the mess it is in.

I don't want to run that experiment.

It sounds very much like you are all for such an 'expirement'.

If Thailand is to 'reduce the incidence' of such conflicts, Thailand will have to change it's culture & adapt to a more 'global' outlook on life. No longer should the people of Thailand be 'insulated' from the rest of the world.

As you inferred, the 1st step is 'education'. It won't take several decades for all of the old 'die hards' to disappear.

[enginerevision]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

I hope you are wrong.

The elected officials are not responsible enough to have direct control of the military. Thaksin trying to do this is what kicked off this whole mess. There is nothing wrong with the current system. If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

Thailand needs a somewhat independent military as a guiding hand for when the corrupt civilian government gets too far out of line. The military is corrupt also, but doesn't have any desire to try and rule the day to day activities of the Kingdom thus making them a little more responsible. You may not like this particular balance of power, but it is working. The military is slowly giving up its monopoly hold on various industries to the civilian establishment. This trend will continue. Give it time. I hope this whole ugly mess simply fades into the background and things go back to the status quo.

In several decades after the education system has been improved and people have learned how to think independently and learned the meaning of responsibility, maybe we can try it your way. For now, Thais are like children and the military is the only parent we've got. I hate to think what this country would become if you took that discipline away.

I don't want to run that experiment.

You mean Sondhi

[elkangorito]

I'm sure you all must be able to see that the historic area around what happened on April 10th is much clearer now than before. I bet the staff of city hall, all the citizen's, and the tourists in that area are much happier now that the protest is somewhere else than on their doorstep.

They all moved to congest/disrupt/blockade/cause problems/kill & injure other people...in another location. That location is Silom.

[Stricken]

Think Tank, you mean someone in Thailand is actually thinking

[ozzieman05]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

Not that I disagree with your comment but I think that it's more like 'a Thai populace that doesn't understand democracy'. This could've been dealt with a long time ago by somebody.

I disagree with the statement that Thailand could find them selves in an Undeclared War, it should be

Thailand has now found them selves in an Undeclared Civil War

When a group of the countries people find them selves above the law, attack, invade, and try to force their will on other a state ow undeclared war exists

Yes we can blame the Red shirts but we must keep our minds open

If the Lollipop men (Police) could do their job there would be no barricades along Ratchadamri Road

We have seen that they are lined with petrol cans ready to be set on fire.

As the red shirts are so many no one would know it the police came in in red shirts and remove them, but Thailand's famous ``security forces'' allowed this barricade and the petrol cans to be put there and have subsequently done nothing about it.

someone said "Every time I hear Abhisit Vejjajiva say that the government will not tolerate the red shirts disturbing the public, and other empty words, I just sit and laugh"

The PM give warning after warning but does nothing

Can he not see that he is part of the fact that the reds shirts feel they are above the law and can not be touched

He really is the quintessential politician _ a windbag of rhetoric

The immigration dept, the one dept. that I believe was the most efficient in Thailand are standing back while farang with no passports get up on the red stages and inflame the situation

The Australian embassy can not even control there own citizens (nothing new here)

Red shirts are allowed to set up road blocks

kidnap police

take full army and police units hostage

etc etc etc

In my and my Thai wifes group of friends

Thailand is already in a undeclared civil war, and the law is scared to do anything

[ozzieman05]

Really? Please do continue to tell us about such visits & ensuing events. I have never heard of such things. Web links would also be nice

SURPRISE.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday that U.S. diplomats were "intensively engaged in discussions" with Thai government officials and opposition forces, and EU diplomats said they have met with opposition figures as well.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3664...omats-udd-visit

The Foreign Ministry has sharply criticised overseas diplomats who met leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship last Friday.

Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, secretary to the foreign minister, yesterday said the diplomats who entered the protest site at Ratchaprasong intersection to talk with the UDD leaders had acted improperly and beyond the scope of their duties.

The ministry on Tuesday summoned Mr Rodriguez to discuss its concern about the diplomats' acceptance of invitations from the opposition Puea Thai Party and the UDD to meet with them on different occasions.

If America wants to solve this undelcared civil war, then why not send in some of their top security and seal commanders to give advice to the government the best way to clean up the situation

[elkangorito]

I disagree with the statement that Thailand could find them selves in an Undeclared War, it should be

Thailand has now found them selves in an Undeclared Civil War.

When a group of the countries people find them selves above the law, attack, invade, and try to force their will on other a state ow undeclared war exists

You are quite right in that no war has been declared.

You are quite wrong to assume that 100,000 people, who actively protest out of 63 million people, represents a state of civil war.

Edited May 1, 2010 by elkangorito

[waza]

Bear with me a minute........ What if Thaskins not dead? What if Thaskin is in Thailand? What if he waiting with the peoples army ready to come to the red shirts aid? Just a thought.

[ozzieman05]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

This is what happens when all side are not willing to compromise and only looking for their own interests, Thaksin, Yellow, and Red shirt alike. This is a country of everyone for themselves, Including you and I

[/size]There are no discipline that Democracy has a price, including giving your life for it

best post and decent comment in the whole of this tv "discussions".

kudos to you the writer/commentator.

Are we there yet?

Question:

What are the 8 elements of democracy?

Answer:

#1-Rule of law. Everyone must adhere to the same laws.

#2-Human Dignity. Citizens should protect and uphold the dignity of all people.

#3-Political Equality. Everyone has the same right to vote and run for office and to speak on public issues.

#4-Political Freedoms. People can speak freely and vote without intimidation.

#5-Common Good. Citizens work towards the common good (what will make people safe and happy).

#6-Being Informed and Getting Involved. Citizens should participate individually and collectively in issues that shape their community, nation and world.

#7-Personal Freedom. People enjoy freedom of religion and freedom of expressions.

#8-Respect. Citizens should respect the rights of others.

Ha ha ha ha

You have no idea what democracy is

you have got it all wrong in the translation

I read what true democracy is in the Red shirts Hand book

#1-Rule of law. Everyone except red shirts must adhere to the same laws.

#2-Human Dignity. Citizens must understand that the red shirts just want to protect and uphold the dignity of all people.

#3-Political Equality. Only Red shirts have s the same right to vote and run for office and to speak on public issues.

#4-Political Freedoms. People can speak freely and vote without intimidation once approved by the red shirt leaders.

#5-Common Good. Citizens work towards the common good of Taskin and his supporters

#6-Being Informed and Getting Involved. Citizens should participate individually and collectively in issues that shape their community, nation and world and we will pay you 500 baht a day to do so

#7-Personal Freedom. People enjoy freedom of religion and freedom of expressions while wearing a red shirt.

#8-Respect. Citizens should respect and die for the rights of Taskin.

Edited May 1, 2010 by ozzieman05

[sirineou]

"The stand-off in the streets of Bangkok between the government and Red Shirt protesters is worsening and could deteriorate into an undeclared civil war,"?????????????

Is there such thing as a declared civil war??????

[ozzieman05]

"The stand-off in the streets of Bangkok between the government and Red Shirt protesters is worsening and could deteriorate into an undeclared civil war,"?????????????

Is there such thing as a declared civil war??????

Yes

I started on the 10th April 2010

A state of un-law and war exists

Just no one want to admit it

Edited May 1, 2010 by ozzieman05

[elkangorito]

Bear with me a minute........ What if Thaskins not dead? What if Thaskin is in Thailand? What if he waiting with the peoples army ready to come to the red shirts aid? Just a thought.

Sorry but Mr T is on the moon as we speak.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3558399

[ozzieman05]

Bear with me a minute........ What if Thaskins not dead? What if Thaskin is in Thailand? What if he waiting with the peoples army ready to come to the red shirts aid? Just a thought.

Sorry but Mr T is on the moon as we speak.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3558399

As stated already in another posting

The photo of Taskin in the city is fake

Unless the white outline around his body is a fake

even though everything else has a 10 oclock shadow Taskin has no shadow

The shadow of the lamp post may have goone behind him but the lower shadow whould have gone across his trousers

there is no shadow there

A good fake

But definatly a fake photo

[jcbangkok]

If this did turn into a civil war ... I think it would be turned into a Hollywood comedy if the same things continue to transpire. It really is hard for many people outside Thailand to take the tragedy of what is happening seriously when so much bizarre and comical things occur from both sides .. starting with the whole shirt color thing.

[cdnmatt]

Just call in the American or Israeli army. They're excellent at handling situations like this, and guaranteed, the red shirts would be gone within hours.

[Ulysses G.]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.