Abhisit's Dilemma: Pacify Your Foes, Offend Your Friends

[retarius]

I was pretty excited about this offer when it was first announced....although a little concerned about the vague conditions and weasely words used...but as time has gone on, I think it is simply a ruse to end the conflict....I think that there is about as much chance of a November election as a squadron of pigs flying into Swampy airport

[Redsunset]

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."

His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

His conditions are nonsense ? What are the REDS conditions? Ohh let me think. House disselusion and then what? WHAT ?

I never commented on the red's conditions... they are inflexible and unreasonable, but at least they are clear. Stop trying to evaluate my comments using erroneous comparisons.

[Redsunset]

It's called compromise, sometimes the only way out of a sticky situation...

Compromise: YES, but amnesty: NO!

If justice is not being done the government creates a state of monkeys, where murders and other severe crimes can be done without proscecution and punishment.

If the reds really want peace and democracy then they accept that justice has to be done. If they don't want justice being done then they are real terrorists who only want to place themselves out of the law. So, outlaws...

Well put, Teddy...

[jayboy]

It seems they are being dismissed as an arm of PAD. Are they?

I was, foolishly, hoping they were a real, neutral, peace movement coming out of the Mute Majority.

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.

The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

[Redsunset]

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."

His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

Would you then prefer they roll in the armored tanks

and what not in order to remove the reds?

Sounds like you do prefer that option.

It is called give and take ...

Sounds like you like to take take take

That kind of logic is what started this issue

in the first place

Your response is nonsensical. I never intimated that I preferred to roll in the tanks, YOU did.

What you intrepret in your "sounds like" response are YOUR assumptions, not mine. I don't think it is smart to put words into other people's mouths and then argue against them.... a bizarre way of having a discussion. Maybe you should ask for a job with the Pue Thai party.

[Redsunset]

I was pretty excited about this offer when it was first announced....although a little concerned about the vague conditions and weasely words used...but as time has gone on, I think it is simply a ruse to end the conflict....I think that there is about as much chance of a November election as a squadron of pigs flying into Swampy airport

PRECISELY MY SUSPICIONS, retarius.... there is too much being done behind closed doors... also, compromise in these situations leaves both parties, satisfied, yet disatisfied.

Moreover, Abhisit's five conditions are ambiguous, and frankly without substance. I am not surprised the reds want more details. Would you agree to a compromise based on those VAGUE statements? For example, what constitutes successful progress towards each of the five conditions? Abhisit could easily say: "Reds have not complied to the conditions... haven't made substantive progress toward their achievement... therefore, I rescind my promise to call for re-elections in Novemeber..."

[quiksilva]

The middle road is the hardest road to follow...

I don't think he is a fool in any way shape or form. This is the smartest way out, he was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and has compromised not only the government's stance but also his career to seek a resolution out of this mess.

Actually I disagree.... the middle road in a political strife like this is not the same as bargaining at Chatuchak market. There ARE winners and losers... frankly, the reds should be the losers. They are the ones who BROKE THE LAW.... so what in God's name are we seeking "win-win" for?

If they had done this in a NON VIOLENT disruptive manner, then fine; negotiate. But they chose to BREAK THE EMERGENCY DECREE... if we provide a win win solution, then WHAT GOOD ARE OUR LAWS???!!!

If the government is to be so strict and apply every law they should arrest everybody who has been to a protest site recently (of every colour and denomination).

We could be looking at well over 200,000 arrests... so yes there has to be some middle ground if only for the sake of being practical, personally though i take it further as I think there has to be compromise because ultimately the yellows are going to have to learn to live with the reds and vice versa, and we are all going to have to learn to live with both of them (and everyone else).

I am not defending the reds, by any stretch of the imagination, rather I recognise the fact that the only route out of this predicament is the route that Abhisit has taken. It wont satisfy everyone, but it should at least satisfy the majority (which polls seem to support) and that's what matters.

More importantly this offer is conditional upon there being peace, and whilst it looks like politicians will get amnesty , they have promised to make those who have committed criminal acts face legal action, following independent review.

Now all we need is for the Reds to go home!!

[eggomaniac]

I would really like to know when and where Chuan made the statement you ascribe to him. If you have a link to a news article you can PM me. I thought Chuan is Abhisit's 'mentor', so it's a confusing twist, another confusing twist.

[ I read the OP a few times and can't seem to find the statement?]

oh, any deal any way it is written is a NO GO

Thailand is a bus going downhill with no brakes. It was before Abhisit became PM.

My warnings of this, for nearly 2 years now, were not considered 'inaccurate'.

The most humoress part, is the ones who disparaged the warnings of the size and resolve of the reds, now say they predicted it. sheesh

----------------------------------------------------

I have been trying every possible way, for a few months, to get ahold of Khun Chuan Leekpai to show him a Solution and Plan which would provide a run off lane, leading to Stability, Peace and Prosperity. I don't think anyone wants to ruin the 'fun'.

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."

His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

Edited May 6, 2010 by eggomaniac

[rixalex]

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.

The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

In your second paragraph you accuse others of hysteria and hatred, and then in your third you yourself exhibit all the signs of those exact characteristics, and do so using the type of language that does you no credit.

[Redsunset]

And where is the confirmation, in writing or on video, that 14 November is a fact - it is the actual date of the election?

Haven't seen any proof yet. Just speculation.

@321niti123: Don't praise the man - if he'd had enough sense before Songkran there would not have been such a drastic loss of life in April.

He is a fool with nowhere to run.

Reds called off any further negotiations before then, all in front of the cameras.

All this posturing, back room dealing is a waste of time... Abhisit is becoming a clown. He needs to treat the red shirt leaders as violent, untrustworthy criminals. He is again, behaving like an Oxford college student.... a good man, but Abhisit does not know how to deal with evil at all.

Good one redsunset you have finally agreed that the reds are evil

And yes he does need to treat them as they make themselves.

Must be difficult for those on this forum who can only look at things with one red eye.

The PM has done a great job, after the reds refused to negotiate he talked them into building their own prison then when they tried to escape from it they were sent back twice an now have nowhere to go because they know what will happen if they try to break out again.

The pity is that the red leaders made the decision on 10th to break out in the mistaken belief that nothing would be done and because of that decision so many had to lose their lives and be injured.

That decision is the sole cause of what came after and the loss of lives and damage done is all a consequence of that decision; that being so the reds are solely to blame.

They were warned (note not threatned) that they would be stopped if they tried to move out but refused to heed that warning hence the loss of life and injuries.

And incidently all the treats and demands have come from the red side, like death treats against the PM, while the Govt has issued warnings.

Dont see the difference? Didnt think you would

Look, Robby, I am not here to agree with you. Your opinion is hardly gospel here, as I've read some of your posts and frankly, I'm not sure how you reach your conclusions because many of them lack substance.

For example, you seem to be painting me as a red supporter. Based on your post, you also seem to be belittling anyone who might offer a point of view different than yours.

I find YOU, to be a bit "red" and YOU should look at yourself in the mirror and stop belittling ideas that might not be those you support.

For the record I do NOT support the reds. I support people who speak straight with the right values. So if you disagree with me, rather than to stereotype me, or to try and "convert me" you should either argue your point or keep your keyboard shut.

Edited May 6, 2010 by Redsunset

[Redsunset]

I would really like to know when and where Chuan made the statement you ascribe to him. If you have a link to a news article you can PM me. I thought Chuan is Abhisit's 'mentor', so it's a confusing twist, another confusing twist.

[ I read the OP a few times and can't seem to find the statement?]

oh, any deal any way it is written is a NO GO

Thailand is a bus going downhill with no brakes. It was before Abhisit became PM.

My warnings of this, for nearly 2 years now, were not considered 'inaccurate'.

The most humoress part, is the ones who disparaged the warnings of the size and resolve of the reds, now say they predicted it. sheesh

----------------------------------------------------

I have been trying every possible way, for a few months, to get ahold of Khun Chuan Leekpai to show him a Solution and Plan which would provide a run off lane, leading to Stability, Peace and Prosperity. I don't think anyone wants to ruin the 'fun'.

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."

His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

According to the articles - which by the way are all over the newspapers - Chuan, earlier on, said he had not been involved in crafting the peace proposal, and believed that the dems should NOT cave into pressure from the reds to dissolve Parliament earlier. He said that upholding the rule of law was the most important.... NOW, he is not saying that, but is saying there is no conflict between him and Abhisit.

Edited May 6, 2010 by Redsunset

[onthewire]

And where is the confirmation, in writing or on video, that 14 November is a fact - it is the actual date of the election?

Haven't seen any proof yet. Just speculation.

@321niti123: Don't praise the man - if he'd had enough sense before Songkran there would not have been such a drastic loss of life in April.

He is a fool with nowhere to run.

People like you r the reason I stay on twitter these days and stay away from this site. Report the news and stop being one sided.

[jayboy]

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.

The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

In your second paragraph you accuse others of hysteria and hatred, and then in your third you yourself exhibit all the signs of those exact characteristics, and do so using the type of language that does you no credit.

It was a bit extreme wasn't it, but strangely enjoyable to write and containing more than a grain of truth.I don't know if you read Thai but it's really instructive to see what some of these "normal" and "educated" Bangkok youngish m-class types write on Facebook.Pure hatred of rural Thais and crazy nationalism, straight out of the PAD playbook - although most profess to be multi-colored.Sad thing is some are my colleagues and friends.When I attempt to query their position, they look at me pityingly and say "Dear Khun Jayboy, how difficult it must be for foreigners - even someone like you - to understand the complexities of Thai politics."

[jcbangkok]

It seems they are being dismissed as an arm of PAD. Are they?

I was, foolishly, hoping they were a real, neutral, peace movement coming out of the Mute Majority.

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.

The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

It is a VERY incorrect statement to say the multi colors (the original .. not the new reds) are really yellows. I have been to a number of their gatherings and know a number of them. This is simply not true. The yellows have their own gatherings which I believe have actually occurred at the same time as the multi colors.

There are actually people within the multicolored group who are VERY sympathetic to the reds alleged goal of helping the poor of this country. And they majority of the multi colored also condemn the airport seizure. They simply want peace and normalcy.

Sure their might be some yellows & reds who have attended the multi colored gatherings but just because some gay men like to dance doesn't mean all men who like to dance are gay.

The multi colors mostly all represent a love for The King and wanting an end to lawless mob holding BKK hostage... no other big agenda going on there.

[jcbangkok]

... When I attempt to query their position, they look at me pityingly and say "Dear Khun Jayboy, how difficult it must be for foreigners - even someone like you - to understand the complexities of Thai politics." ...

How very very true but on the flip side it is also a very sad thing that it appears incredibly difficult for most Thais to comprehend the complexities of Thai Politics too.

[rixalex]

Abhisit could easily say: "Reds have not complied to the conditions... haven't made substantive progress toward their achievement... therefore, I rescind my promise to call for re-elections in Novemeber..."

If the reds don't comply to the conditions Abhisit would be well within his rights the rescind the promise, but i simply don't think he could risk doing so because of the bad press he would likely get. He would be labeled as someone who went back on his word (even if in truth he didn't). Peope don't care about the small print. He has set a date now and if the date is not stuck too, it will rightly or wrongly be considered a failing of his that will cost him votes - he can't afford that.

[Thai at Heart]

... When I attempt to query their position, they look at me pityingly and say "Dear Khun Jayboy, how difficult it must be for foreigners - even someone like you - to understand the complexities of Thai politics." ...

How very very true but on the flip side it is also a very sad thing that it appears incredibly difficult for most Thais to comprehend the complexities of Thai Politics too.

Indeed, it is one of the most patronising statements to suggest that Thai politics is beyond a foreigners comprehension.

As though Thailand has the original patent on corruption, skullduggery, treachery and mendacity.

[Lopburi99]

I can at least semi-understand lessening the enforcement of law by not forcefully dispersing the mob to prevent a possible civil war. But to ignore rule of law for terrorists and riot inciters is cowardice. No force would be involved. Where is the danger?

For God's sake Thailand this is a golden opportunity (at this moment) to begin to restore some regard for rule of law in this country. Don't weasel out of it! NO AMNESTY! Let the Reds roast in the sun and in their own waste and garbage before accepting that!

<snip>

Fortunately the country is now being led by a highly educated, wise and measured statesman, who thinks in a more analytical and measured way.. <snip>

I see. Allowing two months of .... oh never mind. Up to you if you are so impressed with the PM's performance in dealing with this crisis.

Please tell me what the "wise and measured statesman" got accomplished vis-à-vis his role in this conflict?

Edited May 6, 2010 by Lopburi99

[Redsunset]

Abhisit could easily say: "Reds have not complied to the conditions... haven't made substantive progress toward their achievement... therefore, I rescind my promise to call for re-elections in Novemeber..."

If the reds don't comply to the conditions Abhisit would be well within his rights the rescind the promise, but i simply don't think he could risk doing so because of the bad press he would likely get. He would be labeled as someone who went back on his word (even if in truth he didn't). Peope don't care about the small print. He has set a date now and if the date is not stuck too, it will rightly or wrongly be considered a failing of his that will cost him votes - he can't afford that.

I'm not so sure. Unless there is a transparent, simple way to determine if the reds are complying with the five conditions, you can interpret their "success" many ways. For example, one of the conditions is something like: set up an impartial panel to investigate the violence, blah blah blah.... if that impartial panel finds the red leaders guilty, the reds might say - hold on, that panel was NOT impartial, we are going back onto the streets!"

Or the PM might say, "hey one of the conditions was to make the election process more fair, blah blah blah, and you reds are still buying votes! NO DISSOLUTION.....

But I hear what you say; I buy it to some degree, because the PM is a decent guy, but remember, to some degree he is also a puppet and a potential fall guy.

[rixalex]

I'm not so sure. Unless there is a transparent, simple way to determine if the reds are complying with the five conditions, you can interpret their "success" many ways. For example, one of the conditions is something like: set up an impartial panel to investigate the violence, blah blah blah.... if that impartial panel finds the red leaders guilty, the reds might say - hold on, that panel was NOT impartial, we are going back onto the streets!"

Or the PM might say, "hey one of the conditions was to make the election process more fair, blah blah blah, and you reds are still buying votes! NO DISSOLUTION.....

But I hear what you say; I buy it to some degree, because the PM is a decent guy, but remember, to some degree he is also a puppet and a potential fall guy.

I'm not questioning the high likelihood that the conditions will be not be met in the eyes of some and therefore rescinding of the election date could be justified. What i am saying is that Abhisit couldn't afford to do so because i think it would lose him votes. Nothing to do with him being a decent guy. Everything to do with giving himself the best chance of winning the election. Being painted as a man who goes back on his word hampers his chances.

[Redsunset]

From Thanong's Blog, Tuesday May 4th

"...Chuan Leekpai, the former prime minister, was pretty upset upon learning about the deal. He believed that there were several ways to approach this dilemma. But the rule of law must be the priority..."

For those who wanted to know Chuan's position on Abhisit's proposal, Chuan did not know about it; nor did he support it.... he said dissolution under red pressure was unacceptable and that the rule of law needed to be the priority.

I agree with Chuan.... How can you reach a fair compromise, and let people break the law at the same time? Unless of course you concede that the end justifies the means...

[h90]

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.

The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

[Redsunset]

I'm not so sure. Unless there is a transparent, simple way to determine if the reds are complying with the five conditions, you can interpret their "success" many ways. For example, one of the conditions is something like: set up an impartial panel to investigate the violence, blah blah blah.... if that impartial panel finds the red leaders guilty, the reds might say - hold on, that panel was NOT impartial, we are going back onto the streets!"

Or the PM might say, "hey one of the conditions was to make the election process more fair, blah blah blah, and you reds are still buying votes! NO DISSOLUTION.....

But I hear what you say; I buy it to some degree, because the PM is a decent guy, but remember, to some degree he is also a puppet and a potential fall guy.

I'm not questioning the high likelihood that the conditions will be not be met in the eyes of some and therefore rescinding of the election date could be justified. What i am saying is that Abhisit couldn't afford to do so because i think it would lose him votes. Nothing to do with him being a decent guy. Everything to do with giving himself the best chance of winning the election. Being painted as a man who goes back on his word hampers his chances.

Absolutely.... his integrity is on the line. I agree with you.

But it will be hard to implement that Nov date, if, for example, some of his supporters start whining that the reds are NOT complying with the spirit of his five points [as I mentioned above].

Given what has already happened in this conflict, anyone can use any excuse to get their way. Nothing surprises me anymore, even what Abhisit might or might not do under pressure.

A clearer, more precise set of five conditions that spells out "success or failure" in a simple way would help everyone be more objective. Will it solve the problem? No, but at least it will serve as a basis TO HELP (not guarantee) all parties moving forward in the same direction with the same objectives.

[Redsunset]

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.

The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

I couldn't agree with you more.... there are too many "conditions" that will derail Abhisit's proposal between now and November.... just you wait and see.

[whybother]

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.

The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

I couldn't agree with you more.... there are too many "conditions" that will derail Abhisit's proposal between now and November.... just you wait and see.

Anything can happen between now and November 14. But that is not a reason to reject the road map.

The reds have basically accepted it, although it's not a done deal yet.

The yellows are complaining about it, which means that there must be something good in it for the reds.

It's a compromise by all (relevant) parties. That is what is needed.

[pornsasi]

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.

The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

I couldn't agree with you more.... there are too many "conditions" that will derail Abhisit's proposal between now and November.... just you wait and see.

Anything can happen between now and November 14. But that is not a reason to reject the road map.

The reds have basically accepted it, although it's not a done deal yet.

The yellows are complaining about it, which means that there must be something good in it for the reds.

It's a compromise by all (relevant) parties. That is what is needed.

secunded

[warfie]

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."

His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

The red leaders won't use the "yellow shirts got off" card, because they are "smart" enough to know that the yellow's charges are still before the courts.

do you honestly think the yellow shirts will ever get sentenced to anything???

If the court moves at it's usual pace, they get a post-humus sentence...

[chantorn]

Why compromise when Mark is clearly in the wining isde.

Roll in the tanks, million of people are expecting it, and in support of Suthep.

[Insight]

Looks like the reds are leaning towards giving a date when they'll leave, rather than just leaving :s

That attitude plus CRES announcements looks like developments towards one more stand-off (at least) before it's over. Perhaps a silly "face saving" exercise for the reds...

[Redsunset]

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.

The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

I couldn't agree with you more.... there are too many "conditions" that will derail Abhisit's proposal between now and November.... just you wait and see.

Anything can happen between now and November 14. But that is not a reason to reject the road map.

The reds have basically accepted it, although it's not a done deal yet.

The yellows are complaining about it, which means that there must be something good in it for the reds.

It's a compromise by all (relevant) parties. That is what is needed.

But clarify it before you accept it... you will regret it if you don't... when people don't trust each other, you have to be clear from the start.