Abhisit Has Played His Last Card

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE

Abhisit has played his last card

By Thanong Khanthong

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The red shirts will not end their rally, even though Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has handed an olive branch to them. Abhisit promised to hold an election on November 14 on top of a five-point road map for reconciliation. If this kow-towing to the red shirts is not clear enough, Abhisit went even further to specify that he would dissolve Parliament between September 15-20. Still, the red-shirt leaders at Rajprasong are not satisfied with the concessions. They will continue until they get what they want.

But what do they really want? The leaders' change of heart to Abhisit's road map comes as a surprise to many. For on Monday evening, following Abhisit's announcement, the red-shirt leaders were quite excited. At long last, they would be able to pack up and go home. Abhisit's concession to their House dissolution demand was achieved, although the date was a couple of months away from what they had thought of. But it was a deal that was better than no deal at all. And after all, the red shirts had shot themselves in the foot with the storming of Chulalongkorn Hospital, a criminal act that other red-shirt leaders had no prior knowledge of. Something had been going on behind the scenes.

Then the red-shirt leaders came on stage to articulate that they wanted to examine all conditions in the road map first. They wanted details of how the road map could be implemented. They were concerned about terrorism charges against them, not to mention the nitty-gritty details on the House dissolution date and the possibility of holding the election on November 14 as promised because the Election Commission would have to be involved in this decision too. Besides, the details of the constitution amendment would also have to be tabled out.

This shows that the red leaders at Rajprasong do not hold real power over the mob there. They have to listen to their paymaster, who will not want to end the rally so soon. We can only assume the purpose is to create a sudden political change so that an interim government is created to defuse the crisis. A House dissolution is only the red shirts' lip service because they can't wait that long. Abhisit would still be prime minister for the next six months following the House dissolution.

Abhisit must feel frustrated at the lukewarm response from the red shirts to his concessions. His decision to compromise has harmed his premiership. He has also alienated some supporters. While the red shirts pour cold water on his road map, others accuse him of bowing to the demands of terrorists and criminals who have held Bangkok hostage. Moreover, the government has failed to enforce the rule of law. The state mechanisms handled by the police and the military are failing, since no one is willing to enforce the law.

I heard that a constitutional expert came up with the road map as a way out for both Abhisit and the red shirts. Abhisit took the bait. Besides, he didn't want to risk enforcing the law by dispersing the red shirts. He refused to sign a clear-cut order for the military to move in to oust the red shirts from Rajprasong. The military would not move if they did not get the written order from the prime minister. It was not until Sunday that Abhisit held a special Cabinet meeting at the 11th Infantry Regiment to approve a resolution empowering the military to quash the red shirts. Abhisit wanted ministerial colleagues aboard the same boat. He did not want to sink alone. The following day, he killed this resolution by his own hand with the truce offered to the red shirts.

This shocked the multicoloured shirts and the yellow shirts, who had been calling upon the prime minister not to bow to the red shirts' demands. The yellow shirts had urged the government to restore law and order and remove the red shirts from the streets. Yesterday the yellow shirts asked the prime minister to step down if he cannot enforce the law.

On the surface, it looks fine for the prime minister to seek reconciliation with the red shirts because nobody wants to see a bloodbath. But the red shirts maintain an unnamed army and are responsible for the first violence. If the prime minister wanted to agree to this reconciliation, why didn't he do it at the end of March when both sides were holding talks?

After the April 10 clash in which more than 25 people were killed and almost 900 people injured, Abhisit went on TV to show his determination to enforce the rule of law. He called the red shirts terrorists. He also said there had been a plot among them to overthrow the monarchy.

On Monday, Abhisit unveiled his road map and reversed his previous stance. He was trying to find a short cut. Now it seems this road map will not work as the red shirts are baying for more concessions. The yellow shirts are also breathing down Abhisit's neck. What will he do amid the deepening conflict? He has completely lost credibility to rule further.

-- The Nation 2010-05-07

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[whybother]

If the prime minister wanted to agree to this reconciliation, why didn't he do it at the end of March when both sides were holding talks?

I thought he did.

[chadintheusa]

It must be a good compromise both sides are unhappy with it. The reds do not have enough credibility to think that they can follow through on this roadmap. Despite the orders from the red stage a number of incidents have occurred where protesters have done the opposite. It seems that either the red leaders are not fully in control, or they are issuing secret orders for violence and mayhem. In either case they are not a group to be trusted. They will demand more and more without ever complying with the government. It is useless to negotiate with them. They want the police and army to go home before they will, that is absurd. The government troops have a responsibility to protect Thai people who are certainly at risk from the random acts of violence perpetrated by the reds over these past months. The PM is not dealing with reasonable law abiding protesters and they will not live up to any deal they make.

[Redsunset]

Agree 100%, Thanong... fact is, in trying to please everyone, Abhisit pleases no one... and as people delve deeper into his five point peace plan, they will discover that it is just ambiguous plaudits with no specifics, and no way of measuring "success." You could intrepret compliance a million ways, and that will lead to arguements and more protests later on. Therefore, it is virtually a useless set of "nice words on a piece of paper."

And, by the way, who in their right mind would be so presumptuous as to assume you can solve a lifetime of social and political woes in a couple of weeks with a drafted game plan? Ridiculous!

I can, however, empathise why Abhisit did what he did. He is probably under huge pressure to defuse the crisis in front of him. So, he threw the reds a bone and an "easy to digest" solution for everyone, hoping people would just say, "great, great, looks good, let's get it done and end this mess." No one really thought of the longer term consequences, or the fact that we are NOT REALLY compromising through reasonable debate, we are surrendering to violent terrorist threats.

But now the reds want to see the fine print. The red leaders I am sure are now thinking "now that the party is over, Jesus, we could go to jail! Maybe we are not so courageous and out-spoken afterall?! Maybe playing James Bond and jumping out of windows to escape the police was fantasy... jail is reality!!!" They will delay and hem and haw. They will NOT accept the plan without amendments to save their skin. This will take forever.

I normally do not agree with Chuan Leek Pai decisions, but in this case, he is right. Abhisit should have upheld the rule of law. He should disperse the protesters, as he should have done when they first were moving towards Rathaprasong. But the longer he delays, the longer he has to think through expedient, ineffective solutions to get himself out of hot water.

The right solution is to disperse the protesters and NOT acquiese to terrorist threats. No, you do not have to steam roll everyone with tanks... I'd think by now the army or police would have figured out a way of pinpointing the leaders and capturing them with MINIMUM casualties, IF THEY WANTED TO!

Heck, this peace plan is NOT a compromise, it is a Prime Minister giving up a country to a few red shirts being manipulated by evil politicians... this is NOT what democracy is all about.... I do not think this is what Abhisit really wants, if he steps backs and thinks about the long term consequences.

Edited May 7, 2010 by Redsunset

[Redsunset]

I want to see this crisis defused as much as anyone.

But I also do not support the reds methods.

They may have come up with a reasonable point of view to debate, but to force their point of view on others is not compromise or democracy. It is tyranny. It is BS.

It is painful to disperse them, because they are using human shields. By the way, only COWARDS hide behind others. I believe the solution is to "extract" them... given the millions of baht the Thai government spends on military equipment, you would think that we could arrest the protesters with minimum casulties.

Unfortunately, the problem seems to be our armed forces do not support this. So, Abhisit should demote or early retire Anupong and promote someone who can do the job as painlessly and as effectively as possible.... Does Abhisit risk his career demoting Anupong? Yes he does, but he risks much more if he sells democracy out to terrorism. END OF STORY.

Edited May 7, 2010 by Redsunset

[schuimpje]

I think the writer, in his opinion and maybe speculation on some points, missed 1 important part:

Abhisit choose his time to announce the road-map very well. He also choose his 11th Infantry meeting very well and the road-map might have been part of the talks at that meeting as well.

See, for example, with his coalition partners knowing about the road-map. The Red shirts in trouble with the hospital fiasco, the idea is to keep the pressure on. That's what the government did on Sunday and most of Monday, keep that pressure-cooker going.

Now, the road-map was a bomb-shell after all the panic the Red-shirts must have gone through. So let them cook and shimmer for a while. Good to get them willing to say yes to anything.

Why was the timing perfect? Because the Coronation-Day celebrations where coming. On Tuesday, there was still some talk going on back and forth. Then there's holidays and celebrations. Giving the Red-shirts not only time to think, but also giving them and everybody else the knowledge that 99% sure, nobody would even think of disturbing the Coronation-Day celebrations.

All parties have had time to think without pressure of a crackdown during this period that will end on Sunday. It doesn't matter if the PM alone or everybody in the coalition and army knew about this road-map. It does show how well thought out the timing for it was.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

[whybother]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

The reds need to agree with it.

If they don't then it is off the table (or at least the dissolution/election part of it is).

[Redsunset]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

The reds need to agree with it.

If they don't then it is off the table (or at least the dissolution/election part of it is).

Abhisit said he is going to go forward, regardless of whether the reds agree or not.... this means they have a few days to pack their bags and get out of there.... otherwise it is dispersion time....

I agree... Abhisit has shown very little when it comes to courage and bold leadership. He seems to give in to pressure so easily... yes, I understand, but there comes a point in every man's life where he has to say, enough is enough... this is right, that is wrong, I will do what is right.

[whybother]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

The reds need to agree with it.

If they don't then it is off the table (or at least the dissolution/election part of it is).

Abhisit said he is going to go forward, regardless of whether the reds agree or not.... this means they have a few days to pack their bags and get out of there.... otherwise it is dispersion time....

I agree... Abhisit has shown very little when it comes to courage and bold leadership. He seems to give in to pressure so easily... yes, I understand, but there comes a point in every man's life where he has to say, enough is enough... this is right, that is wrong, I will do what is right.

He's given the reds an out. His next step if they don't accept will be telling.

If the reds don't accept just because the yellows don't like it, that will also be telling. They should be saying "We don't care what the yellows think. We want to move forward. We accept."

[ChiangMaiFun]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

The reds need to agree with it.

If they don't then it is off the table (or at least the dissolution/election part of it is).

Abhisit said he is going to go forward, regardless of whether the reds agree or not.... this means they have a few days to pack their bags and get out of there.... otherwise it is dispersion time....

I agree... Abhisit has shown very little when it comes to courage and bold leadership. He seems to give in to pressure so easily... yes, I understand, but there comes a point in every man's life where he has to say, enough is enough... this is right, that is wrong, I will do what is right.

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

[tonyPhuket]

Why not just continue with the roadmap (which I think is reasonable) and show some leadership - 'here's the map - I'm PM let's move forward'

Yes I agree to that for the sake of everyone and the hope this week is most highlighted since 14 March.

[Sisaketmike]

If the prime minister wanted to agree to this reconciliation, why didn't he do it at the end of March when both sides were holding talks?

I thought he did.

The yellow shirts are also breathing down Abhisit's neck.

Thaksin divided the southern provinces in three zones. Red, yellow and green.

So tired to hear and read about the color of their shirts. Full Stop.

[minburi2]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

The Yellow team is not his team, they just wanted anything but RED-SKIRTS!!

Most of the issues the red-skirts have are created by their own local leaders, MP's and PM's, they speak the want to come up for the poor, but they own the businesses who uppress the poor farmers

Edited May 7, 2010 by webfact
quote fixed //Admin

[Chaimai]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

I agree, this IS a REAL achievement. Why do I sense that the reds just don't want to go home yet ?

There is no reason for them to stay - unless there is a hidden agenda.

[chadintheusa]

If the Yellows don't like the proposed election date they now know how to change it. Just occupy a street corner until you get everything you want. This is no way to run a democracy. Illegal protests should be dispersed before there is any guarantee of an election. Stop rewarding the most violent and lawless Thai citizens and think about the best interests of the law abiding ones, you know, the other 60 million.

[ozzieman05]

If the prime minister wanted to agree to this reconciliation, why didn't he do it at the end of March when both sides were holding talks?

I thought he did.

Not thought

He Did

[ozzieman05]

If the Yellows don't like the proposed election date they now know how to change it. Just occupy a street corner until you get everything you want. This is no way to run a democracy. Illegal protests should be dispersed before there is any guarantee of an election. Stop rewarding the most violent and lawless Thai citizens and think about the best interests of the law abiding ones, you know, the other 60 million.

Yes it is more than making them pay for the crimes they have done

A major part is setting a precedence that the next mob that tries the same will face the full wrath of the law

When you join the army you understand their will be fighting

When you join the police force you know its not all about bribes and making money there are risks

Red shirts who sill protest need to know that they are not above the law, and are putting their lives in danger

But most important there needs to be a standard set that you can not be above the law, or you have created a double standard, and mob rule will happen every time some one is not agreement for any reason

It is now time to wipe the slate clean, leave or you will be removed

[lazurus]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

I agree, this IS a REAL achievement. Why do I sense that the reds just don't want to go home yet ?

There is no reason for them to stay - unless there is a hidden agenda.

Of course there is. Democracy was only a smoke screen in the first place. Now that elections are scheduled they have to come up with minor flaws in the plan to hide the fact that they weren't there to force an election anyway. The reds need to call their boss and get a real list of demands so that the PM and the Thai people know what they are really up to. Giving into these thugs is a mistake, they'll only ask for more without ever living up to their end of the bargain.

[Jerrytheyoung]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

I agree, this IS a REAL achievement. Why do I sense that the reds just don't want to go home yet ?

There is no reason for them to stay - unless there is a hidden agenda.

1- I understand the Red Shirts position; as Abhisit has some oppositions in its own side, the situation is too much uncertain. Red Shirts cannot go home with the risk to be fooled few days later: Abhisit stepping down and all the agreements voided.

A clarification is required and all Thais actors must support the Road map, the elections; too much risky to fold everything until the situation is cleaned

2- Abhisit supporters should voice their feelings strongly and marginalise Yellow and PAD extremists.

3- Abhisit should threaten his opponents by a direct call to people: a referendum and he should create his own movement now, sidelining the old corrupted MPs. I think he has the support of the Population: he is winner if he get rid off the old click of Politicians: perfect timing now.

Edited May 7, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[ozzieman05]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

I agree, this IS a REAL achievement. Why do I sense that the reds just don't want to go home yet ?

There is no reason for them to stay - unless there is a hidden agenda.

1- I understand the Red Shirts position; as Abhisit has some oppositions in its own side, the situation is too much uncertain. Red Shirts cannot go home with the risk to be fooled few days later: Abhisit stepping down and all the agreements voided.

A clarification is required and all Thais actors must support the Road map, the elections; too much risky to fold everything until the situation is cleaned

2- Abhisit supporters should voice their feelings strongly and marginalise Yellow and PAD extremists.

3- Abhisit should threaten his opponents by a direct call to people: a referendum and he should create his own movement now, sidelining the old corrupted MPs. I think he has the support of the Population: he is winner if he get rid off the old click of Politicians: perfect timing now.

Alternativly

The reds are Thai citizens'

They can back the PM and say they will protest if he is removed from office

Now there is a 360 degree turnabout

[Samuian]

isn't it called "bickering" or buying time?

or, or, or - whatever, whoever comes up with, it won't be good enough unless "da man" is back at the helm!

That is what this is all about, not about a constitution, not about Thailand's citizen, not about anything else except the return of "da man"!

There might be some revalation in this piece ...

...Abhisit, whose term runs until the end of 2012, offered to hold national elections on Nov. 14 — if a five-point road map to achieve national reconciliation that he unveiled could be achieved without disruption or violence from opponents.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...l#ixzz0nD52adAV

...

Source:

...without disruption or violence... is the key of the proposal, if, it's off.... if we can movew on we can talk.. is the message which I get - time will show.

[Jerrytheyoung]

As you all know I sympathise with many of the reds issues - BUT - enough really is enough - we have the elections this year. A major achievement - it REALLY is time to pack up and go home - and time for Abhisit to declare the dates and stick to them - no matter who agrees or disagrees - even his own 'team yellow' want him out now (farcical really). This is his last play.

I agree, this IS a REAL achievement. Why do I sense that the reds just don't want to go home yet ?

There is no reason for them to stay - unless there is a hidden agenda.

1- I understand the Red Shirts position; as Abhisit has some oppositions in its own side, the situation is too much uncertain. Red Shirts cannot go home with the risk to be fooled few days later: Abhisit stepping down and all the agreements voided.

A clarification is required and all Thais actors must support the Road map, the elections; too much risky to fold everything until the situation is cleaned

2- Abhisit supporters should voice their feelings strongly and marginalise Yellow and PAD extremists.

3- Abhisit should threaten his opponents by a direct call to people: a referendum and he should create his own movement now, sidelining the old corrupted MPs. I think he has the support of the Population: he is winner if he get rid off the old click of Politicians: perfect timing now.

Alternativly

The reds are Thai citizens'

They can back the PM and say they will protest if he is removed from office

Now there is a 360 degree turnabout

Abhisit has to regroup his supporters, to finalise the agreement with Red Shirts and present the agreement to Thai population through a referendum with support of Red Shirts and Abhisit Supporters. Immediately after the results of referendum, dissolution of Parliament and elections Abhisit Supporters going to Elections under their own banner.

Edited May 7, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[whybother]

1- I understand the Red Shirts position; as Abhisit has some oppositions in its own side, the situation is too much uncertain. Red Shirts cannot go home with the risk to be fooled few days later: Abhisit stepping down and all the agreements voided.

A clarification is required and all Thais actors must support the Road map, the elections; too much risky to fold everything until the situation is cleaned

2- Abhisit supporters should voice their feelings strongly and marginalise Yellow and PAD extremists.

3- Abhisit should threaten his opponents by a direct call to people: a referendum and he should create his own movement now, sidelining the old corrupted MPs. I think he has the support of the Population: he is winner if he get rid off the old click of Politicians: perfect timing now.

His own side has supported it. The Yellows have started their own movement. He isn't part of the Yellows.

If the reds can't go home because of "IF"s, then they can never go home. There will always be an IF.

[ozzieman05]

What about the PM continual statement that he wants to handle this to international standards

Is Greece not on the Thai Map of the world

they solved the matter in 1 day according to the news

[Jerrytheyoung]

And why not after elections... a new coalition Abhisit Movement/ UDD against old click of Democrats/PAD: a renovation of the Thai politician landscape....

Edited May 7, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[ChiangMaiFun]

1- I understand the Red Shirts position; as Abhisit has some oppositions in its own side, the situation is too much uncertain. Red Shirts cannot go home with the risk to be fooled few days later: Abhisit stepping down and all the agreements voided.

A clarification is required and all Thais actors must support the Road map, the elections; too much risky to fold everything until the situation is cleaned

2- Abhisit supporters should voice their feelings strongly and marginalise Yellow and PAD extremists.

3- Abhisit should threaten his opponents by a direct call to people: a referendum and he should create his own movement now, sidelining the old corrupted MPs. I think he has the support of the Population: he is winner if he get rid off the old click of Politicians: perfect timing now.

His own side has supported it. The Yellows have started their own movement. He isn't part of the Yellows.

If the reds can't go home because of "IF"s, then they can never go home. There will always be an IF.

why do you think he's not part of the yellows? the Foreign Minister was on the airport stage supporting them - most of his people are yellow supporters - no question - they only start distancing now the yellows want him out too - bit of a joke really...

[whybother]

why do you think he's not part of the yellows? the Foreign Minister was on the airport stage supporting them - most of his people are yellow supporters - no question - they only start distancing now the yellows want him out too - bit of a joke really...

The Yellows support him because he's not red. He doesn't support the yellows.

Why would the yellows start their own party if the Dems were the yellow party?

[lazurus]

What about the PM continual statement that he wants to handle this to international standards

Is Greece not on the Thai Map of the world

they solved the matter in 1 day according to the news

That's what happens when your police do their jobs, even if it is a tough one. The Greek protests started with about 50,000 people, turned violent and then the police sorted them out in a hurry. The government there didn't have to beg for a deal with those lawbreakers.

I was in Cambodia yesterday, if the reds want a civil war that will ruin the country and leave it looking like their neighbors to the east they should think again. The Thai people have a much brighter future if they work together and bring back law and order.

[ChiangMaiFun]

why do you think he's not part of the yellows? the Foreign Minister was on the airport stage supporting them - most of his people are yellow supporters - no question - they only start distancing now the yellows want him out too - bit of a joke really...

The Yellows support him because he's not red. He doesn't support the yellows.

Why would the yellows start their own party if the Dems were the yellow party?

Well the same could be said for the reds? anyway why appoint a yellow to Foreign Minister? you gloss over that - he is far more yellow than red put it that way and he must be feeling sick over his cornflakes in his Army home this morning.