Parity Of Us Dollar And Pound And Euro

[gguy]

I am putting the finishing touches on the 2011 budget and 2012-2020 forecast for the Thailand operation.

I have just gotten the final currency figures for 2011 from the corporate office in Zurich.

It calls for currency parity for the dollar, pound, and euro in 2011. The Thai baht is projected to be in a 32 to 36 baht range to USD. Since most of the company's costs are in USD or Euro, the baht forecast is really meaningless.

There is the possibility the baht may strengthen depending on the governmental situation. No one in corporate wants to predict a Red or Yellow Shirt victory.

[gotlost]

[ronno]

Please add the Australian and Canadian dollar to the possible parity list BUT being Commodity economies, they may enter and drop out of parity more frequently due to their volatility?

Cheers,

Ronno

[DonTron]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

[soundman]

Moved to Banking, finance, economy forum.

[Pib]

As good of a WAG as any. Personally, I'm going to stick to my drunken dart throws and flips of the coin for currency forecasting (guesstimates) which have proved as accurate as the forecasts of so called professionals.

[Pib]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

Reading/listening to a few news reports might help understand why the euro is so weak. As to when it will recover, currencies tend to move in multi-year cycles which means any significant uptrend could be years away (if ever), especially against an emerging market/country's currency like Thailand.

[chickenslegs]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

The Euro was worth about 48 baht in December 2009.

If your monthly income has reduced by 410,000 baht you must have had an income of around 2.2 million baht in December 2009 - reducing to around 1.8 million baht per month now.

I wouldn't worry too much.

(any jobs going at your place?)

[britmaveric]

^euro is weak because heaps of countries in the EU are sinking. (bankrupt)

[Naam]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009) Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover? (a guess would be nice)

The Euro was worth about 48 baht in December 2009.

If your monthly income has reduced by 410,000 baht you must have had an income of around 2.2 million baht in December 2009 - reducing to around 1.8 million baht per month now. I wouldn't worry too much. (any jobs going at your place?)

small correction. the EUR was worth 50 Baht in December.

[Guderian]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

Read the UK press, it's been widely talked about for months now. Basically, there are only two ways out of the current Club Med debacle. As many economists pointed out from well before Day 1 of the Eurozone, a stable monetary union without a full fiscal and economic union cannot work in the long term (and historically never has anywhere in the world). Hence Brussels now calls the shots over the Greek budget, rather than the duly elected Greek government. Would Spain, Portugal and Italy accept similar action if contagion spreads? Will Europeans accept the complete loss of fiscal and financial sovereignty? The markets think not.

The second way out is for the Eurozone to break up. It might happen by Greece et al doing the honourable thing and leaving the Euro, but don;t bet on it. Germany is already mooting a new currency union with the Benelux countries, Austria, Finland and the Czech Republic - the French need not apply, apparently - and leaving the ill-disciplined southerners have the Euro for themselves.

Either way, the Euro looks stuffed, and it's easy to make money at the moment by shorting the Euro. Whether it will go down to parity nobody knows, of course, but until the Eurozone sorts itself out with something more substantial than grand announcements about massive pots of non-existent money then the markets are likely to keep on betting against the Euro.

What strikes me as odd here is that both the UK and Eurozone are admitting their problems and are gradually starting to do something about them. And yet the pound has tanked by 5% against the USD since the (favourable) election outcome a week ago. It's the US that is still in left-wing cloud cuckoo fantasy land, where money grows on trees and debts need never be repaid, so it should really be the USD that is collapsing, or at least it should be as bad as if not worse than the GBP and EUR. Hopefully, over the coming 6 months, the British and Europeans will figure out what needs to be done to regain credibility, and unless someone has reined Obama's spending in seriously, the USD will take (another) beating.

[Naam]

Germany is already mooting a new currency union with the Benelux countries, Austria, Finland and the Czech Republic - the French need not apply, apparently - and leaving the ill-disciplined southerners have the Euro for themselves.

some would call that a fairy tale, i prefer to call it bullshit²

[badge]

Germany is already mooting a new currency union with the Benelux countries, Austria, Finland and the Czech Republic - the French need not apply, apparently - and leaving the ill-disciplined southerners have the Euro for themselves.

some would call that a fairy tale, i prefer to call it bullshit²

haha +1

I agree with the basic tenets of the OP, although will it all conspire to happen at the same time? I dont know.

[mosan]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

You make how much money an month and you don't know why the Euro is dropping...I call B.S on this...stop wasting our time!

[gerry53]

Hey gguy, if you don't know why the Euro is dropping why don't you ask your ZURICH office?

I agree with MOSAN, quit wasting our time with BS.

[watcharacters]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009)

Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover?

(a guess would be nice)

Nice monthly coin I'd say.

[Naam]

gguy - My company gets paid in Euro and today it dove to 39.59 THB/EUR which is really scary (I actually get 410,000 THB less pr. month than I did in December 2009) Do you know why the euro is so weak and if/when it will recover? (a guess would be nice)

You make how much money an month and you don't know why the Euro is dropping...I call B.S on this...stop wasting our time!

he didn't say he is "making" that money but is quite obviously talking about "company and turnover". if you don't know the difference don't blame him. of course you are right referring to some ignorance.