Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[Abrak]

abrak, i cant remember if true pays a dividend, but i seem to recall the last re-arrangment of debts on true with using shares and dilution affects to pay back debts, i cant remember all the dynamics, i am not agreat watcher of true info, but i do recall that almost all were predicting another tumble in the share price in the futture due as a result of another round of debt restructering and as you have pointed out a corporation who have little time or care for retail investors when it comes to share prices, i seem to recall that true share prices always have a great run with the run up to academy fantasia and during the show also

I would be TRUELY surprised if it had paid a dividend since listing.

[ray23]

Ended last week at 6.42 % up to 11.55% up this week no complaints here.

Have Expats book in hand about halfway through the first read. It is really basic and just what the doctor ordered. Thanks a lot for that tip.

[wordchild]

Ended last week at 6.42 % up to 11.55% up this week no complaints here.

Have Expats book in hand about halfway through the first read. It is really basic and just what the doctor ordered. Thanks a lot for that tip.

If you are in the mood for reading around the subject Ray, try Peter lynch,s book "one up on wallstreet." PL was a former top fund manager with Fidelity. The concept of book is that it is possible for the small investor to do significantly better than the professionals with a little bit of common sense and keping their eyes open.

[ray23]

Thanks I need all the help I can get

[ray23]

Well a new week lots of exciting things happening. Even read where the Reds have decided to lay low for awhile, that's some more good news. Got a new Pick From Paul at Thai stocks, today. Picked up 1600 shares this is where it gets interesting I'm now reinvesting profits. I also bought more of the stocks that were moving up. I won't add my 15K till next month.

It's early on so lots can happen but thus far it appears that my 15K plan will work. But to keep everything honest here. I built a 100K base first.

I have three stocks that are laggards but they amount to less then 700 baht so I will let them work. I'm getting a lot of insight from the book that (Expat J recommended) I'm reading real basic stuff, which is exactly what I needed.

For me the best decision I made was joining Thai stocks, Paul just spent a week on the road interviewing companies. That is something I could never do and valuable insight.

[ray23]

The book ExpatJ recommended was perfect for someone like me. Fining Thaistocks was just blind luck.

A message to me from Jason Kelly:

Author of The neatest Little guide to Stock Market Investing

Dear Ray,

Thank you so much for the kind review from Thailand! I'm happy to know that the book is helping people around the world. I agree that you won't find better Thai stock info than what you're getting from Thaistocks.com, and Paul's ability to speak Thai fluently certainly adds to the appeal of that service.

[ray23]

Well today was a decision day for me. I hold a stock in Green energy, currently at 4.88 been on the rise for a few week now. They have been awarded a contract at cost plus 15% in addition they will operate the project at the same cost plus. Both in wind and solar energy.

Well established strong company small debt ration, cash on hand and pays annual dividends.

This is a huge build so they are issuing warrants effective 7-31-2010 at a 4.1 ratio with a price 2.70.

I held 3500 stocks, which would have made available 850 stocks to me at 2.70

I beat myself to death trying to figure this out, in the end I couldn't see a down side. I increased my holding to 10,500. which now makes W-3 warrants available to me 2600 shares at 2.70. Normally a stock market price will drop as the P/E ration changes. But at 2.70 you really have a lot room for error.

I managed to get some feed back from the other investors on Thaistocks. Remember I don't have 90 days in this yet. To say I'm not confident at this point would be a huge understatement of fact. I also used the formula from the book I purchased and read once so far still a work in progress, certain sections I will review several times more.

There will also be a W-4 warrant at 5 baht, I will qualify for that as well. Off the top of my head the a ration of 6.1 I will have two years to decide if I want the W-4 warrant.

I was actually expecting the set to be down today It's not thus far over 800 again surprise surprise. Not really sure why I didn't see much of anything from the G-20 meeting.

If nothing else this all interesting to me and is keeping nice and busy.

[Abrak]

Well today was a decision day for me. I hold a stock in Green energy, currently at 4.88 been on the rise for a few week now. They have been awarded a contract at cost plus 15% in addition they will operate the project at the same cost plus. Both in wind and solar energy.

Well established strong company small debt ration, cash on hand and pays annual dividends.

This is a huge build so they are issuing warrants effective 7-31-2010 at a 4.1 ratio with a price 2.70.

I held 3500 stocks, which would have made available 850 stocks to me at 2.70

I beat myself to death trying to figure this out, in the end I couldn't see a down side. I increased my holding to 10,500. which now makes W-3 warrants available to me 2600 shares at 2.70. Normally a stock market price will drop as the P/E ration changes. But at 2.70 you really have a lot room for error.

I managed to get some feed back from the other investors on Thaistocks. Remember I don't have 90 days in this yet. To say I'm not confident at this point would be a huge understatement of fact. I also used the formula from the book I purchased and read once so far still a work in progress, certain sections I will review several times more.

There will also be a W-4 warrant at 5 baht, I will qualify for that as well. Off the top of my head the a ration of 6.1 I will have two years to decide if I want the W-4 warrant.

I was actually expecting the set to be down today It's not thus far over 800 again surprise surprise. Not really sure why I didn't see much of anything from the G-20 meeting.

If nothing else this all interesting to me and is keeping nice and busy.

Well Ray,

I have absolutely no idea whether Green Energy will turn out to be a winner or a loser but a few observations (not entirely seriously).

First of all, I assume you are referring to 'AGE', so my comments are based on that.

1) 'Well established' is not appropriate for a listed company that began business in 2004. In fact giving listing requirements, in general, it makes it one of the 'least established.'

2) 'Cash on hand' is not an appropriate statement for a company with cash at the end of 2009 of Bt25m and overdrafts (in other words short term liabilities of Bt1bn.)

3) It pays 'annual dividends' is not appropriate for a company that has paid precisely one annual dividend since it has been listed.

4) Over 200% debt/equity ratio does not constitute a small 'debt ratio'.

As I say I dont even know we are talking about the same company and I have no idea whatsoever, whether it is a good investment at all. I simply spent 2 minutes looking at their numbers.

As an aside, I do have certain investment 'prejudices' which would include inherently not investing in a company called 'Green Energy' as it sounds like a social obligation rather than an investment decision. (Although I might invest in a company that called itself 'Green Energy' whose business plan was to rape the world of its natural resources. Admittedly the invest in 'Beyond Petroleum' combined with a nice yellow and green sunflower strategy, wouldnt have turned out too good over the past month or so. Personally I like good abuse of the masses names like 'Siam Cement' to invest in. Other 'investment prejudices' I have such as 'selling any bank that opens a brand new 50 story head office' or not investing in companies when the 'CEO has a beard' work out rather better. (P.S. Steve Jobs does not have a beard, he is merely 'unshaven.'))

[ray23]

Understood we are not talking about the same company. the company is in the green energy field it's not the name of the company.

Sorry for the confusion

[humbug]

there has been plenty of stocks with listing of new warrants recently on the set, twz, slc, tapac to name but a few usually warrant offerings for small caps are just a way for the companies managment and owners to have free money to be awarded millions of warrants etc, that is not a surpise

green energy blah blah you refer to could well be demco, wind turbine electrical company etc, likes to offer many warrants etc

Edited June 30, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

Everybody is different Humbug, me the most expensive stock I own is 26 baht. Less then ninety day into stocks. So I do what I can do. That could be very different then the ball game you play in. Why hadn't done this before because everyone had me convienced there was only the major leagues. Well they were wrong and you can't start small and build over time.

So what seem like nothing to you looks like an opportunity to me. Warrants my understanding is I can sell them, but more stocks for less money. I don't see that hurts me.

The BLAH BLAH you are aware ten projects are planned in Thailand three of which have been funded, the IMF has put up money. So you really lost me on that one.

So I will play in the game I can and respect the one you play in.

You know Abvak nailed me pretty good a few times, but he a was offering constructive critism and I learned from him.

Yours on the other hand was nothing more then a few wise comments. Is that the best you have to offer new investors, if so that is really sad.

I don't like arguing so I'm going to stop right here.

[humbug]

my previous post wasnt at all trying to be arguementative or trying to insult, blah blah was just tongue in cheek, maybe you got the wrong end of the stick, i just didnt understand the abhrasaive terms of green technology, demco is not a dirty word, quite a few brokers recomend demco in fact some have a price target 6-7 baht, maybe demco has been stuck around 4-5 baht because of the issue of warrants, so maybe once the warrants issued it can then try to break through the 5 baht barrier or maybe it will stay in this 4-5 baht range, but who really knows what will happen

the warrants aspect was also not to offend, but to show that many small caps on the set issue warrants, recently demco had demco-w1 and demco-w2, if i recall demco-w1 wasnt a success not all of the warrants were exercised, demco-w2 was a success nearly all of the warrants were excercised

of course you can sell warrants, i have traded warrants when i specualate on the thai bourse, i am currently holding cgd-w1 bought at .24 and at the moment .26, its just been so sideways the market recently so i havnt sold yet,

so once again i think you maybe took my previous post too seriously and reacted, it really wasnt the intention of that post to pick any bar room brawls

Edited June 30, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

You know I think your right. my apologies.

[ray23]

Still working on learning charting.

So far I can't find RSI the Relative strength Index, that I haven't found yet. I have access to the Liberty sight, through Asia Plus Found the MACD and SMA.

[ray23]

Interesting week, actually down 1521 baht

But through this week I purchased 13,600 new shares. The majority of this wasn't, from my 15K a month. But, from reinvesting profits.

My net at the net profit from the portfolio. is over 50K. But this is based on a five year building plan. I don't intend to take any money out. So in five years I should be a good position. So I'm beating the banks 1/2%, so far.

The reason I add how I did each week is, if I can do it anyone can.

I will never be as good as a lot of guys who have been doing this for years. But, I'm doing better then I did while I sit on the sidelines.

Edited July 2, 2010 by ray23

[nakachalet]

Just be sure to set some stops before the markets crash through the floor later this year! Long term could also equal a really long loss..

Ok genius, dont try teach people to suck eggs.

Investors in the SET know in the long term, when things have at least halved over a 16 year period, the future looks bright. That future maybe itself, be long term, but the chances are pretty good.

The stock markets are nothing but a rigged casino. How do you know the SET won't fall another 50% from here? You don't and hence that is gambling.

"Keep you money in the bank and keep your money, invest your money and invest in a lottery ticket"

ok, khunjake....

what do you suggest that we do.... now that buying and selling during the month of june, was the only thing some of us know....?

any suggestion for us, kuhnjake....?

you have really made a very bold statement among the many thaivisa avid traders.... saying so boldly that stock markets are nothing but a rigged casino....?

is it really....?

the attachment surely disagreed with you....! kuhnjake, it takes time, patience, knowledge and experience to survive in the trading world....

moreover, those who are making it, won't talk about it.... for fear that their little trading methodologies might be duplicated.... thus creating unnecessary rivalries.... :jap: :jap: :jap:

your statement is only true.... when a person enters the trading biz without sufficient personal study, preparation, coaching and practising.... sorry to have to disagree with your comments....

[ray23]

Never a truer statement has been made if you don't know what your doing, better find someone who does to guide you. I would never have thought of the stocks I hold without guidance from Thaistocks. Frankly without that back up, I never would have tried. I've been lucky there by hearing Paul had to say, but the other investors there as well.

There are going to be ups and downs, that's normal. But to lose it all, the only way your going to that is by not paying attention. It takes seconds to sale a stock, if need to.

I have my emergency money in the bank, I don't use that invest. A balanced portfolio you will have some winners and losers. Some day I hop to be in the same position a Advak, and be dealing with four or so stocks that I will just work with I'm not sharp enough to that yet. Bu I'm working on it.

[Abrak]

Still working on learning charting.

So far I can't find RSI the Relative strength Index, that I haven't found yet. I have access to the Liberty sight, through Asia Plus Found the MACD and SMA.

I wonder if there are some chartists looking at this thread.

A lot of chart stuff is very short term daily trading. And assuming you are a mid to long term investor, that generally holds a stock for say 3 months or more, the question is what are the best chart indicators to look at. I ask because I dont really know myself. If one was to pick 5 chart indicators what would they be. Fundamentals are very good at telling you what to buy but charts are often very good at telling you when to sell. I look for volume spikes and key reversals. But I would be interested in what medium term investors are best to look at for in charts.

[ray23]

Man did I get nailed when I brought up on Thaistocks. they work in Value investing, so they are looking for the overlooked solid companies. The two that I have been able to find thus far are the MACD and the SMA Haven't found a chart on the SRI yet.

The idea is when all three charts agree something is over sold pass on it, or make sale and move on if you already hold it. Or it's a good buy. But that being said you still need to look at the fundamentals.

What it seems to provide is a buy or sale signal. But you still have to do your research.

Does make you look at Volumes ect. But, I was told on Thai stocks exactly what you just said :jap:

I still want to learn it but missing the third part, is the problem I have at the moment.

That is as close as I can explain it ExpatJ is the expert on this one.

[ray23]

Both Ford and Mitsubishi are building new plants here. The big guy stocks are out of my price range, but they needs parts to build those cars.

SAT is the parts supplier for Mitsubishi and several others here, so it may go to Ford as well. I think it's trading at 14.90 now. Not sure if it would be a good investment now it had a real good run this last week. Global seems to be doing well, this week also.

I don't own either one I joined the Thaistocks club, they are not in the model portfolio. I've done well so if it ain't broken don't fix it.

I have my first 90 days done now, which makes reporting progress a bit more difficult. In total I have put 120K invested of my income. My portfolio value is now 174K. Only have 10K profit. That doesn't add up does it.

A few things happened in my travels, I thinned out the non performers, so on the negative side of life I have 190 Baht.

I sold a few and took the profit, since I don't intend to take money at this juncture I reinvested the profits, so the portfolio is growing nicely, During the course of this people have stepped up and told me about good reading materials. Another showed me simple way of charting instead chasing the the lines. Check the volume.

So I took his advice and checked all my stocks using the method and I will be darn, the more complex method matched the that one measurement every time. Makes life a little easier.

The SET has been in the 820's area for the week. Will it get better, looks like it.

For me it has been a good experience. It would not have been without the proper advice. Looks like I will beat the 1% from the bank.

[lemonhead]

Excellent thread Ray,

I am thinking about starting investing in Thai stocks. I have never invested in stocks before and you will be pleased to know that you currently have a vastly superior knowledge of all things stock related than I. We all have to start somewhere, I have started with an excel spreadsheet and some imaginary money. It's been three days now and I'm down.

I have come across the thaistocks website in my recent searches, I did not see how much the fee would be. I have a couple of bank accounts with SCB and will try out the demo on scbonline soon. The take a tour option suggests that it has a decent interface. I am currently using the bualuang securities demo, I have to say I am not overly impressed.

Fairly soon I shall probably buy the book discussed earlier in the thread, I shall also keep putting aside 5 - 10,000 baht a month until I am ready to start playing/investing for real. I had imagined that I would start when I have a spare 100,000 baht, but this thread and the size of some of the trades that I can see via the Bualuang demo indicate that I can start with much less money.

Finding the right information and the right data do seem to be a problem. I am not sure how much info will come with the scbonline demo, I will let you know. I have only just worked out how to find a thai stock quote on bloomberg.com (type thai:symbol - if you are interested e.g. thai:trubb into the search quotes box) and that was a small triumph in what promises to be a lengthy battle with my ignorance. It seems odd that you have found charts for MACD, SMA but are still unable to find a chart for SRI.

When I find out what those abbreviations mean I will let you know if find the missing chart info. The five year charts are available on bloomberg, if you have a look at the trubb stock there are several indicators available one of which is MACD. I wonder if your missing indicator goes by a different name?

I hope you keep this thread updated, you are not the first person to start investing in Thai stocks and I doubt I will be the last. If I may I shall use this thread to ask some questions about the basics as they arise.

[ray23]

Ok remember I only have 90 days experience, in the language I know which is basic.

I have a suggestion for you go to the SET index site it provides good information on what a stock is doing.

On Thaistocks write Paul a not and tell him what your situation is.

I don't think you need a 100K to get started AsiaPlus will let you create an account with 15K which is what I did. Then you can add to it at i5k a deposit. I started that way. eventually after about a month I added 45 K.

My idea was if I don't put big money in I can't lose big money. The other side of the coin is I won't make big money. Maybe it was just my timing or thaistocks. But, I did much better then I thought I would.

All of sudden I had profits that I reinvested in other stocks within the portfolio. My account grew. I have a five year plan and I will still put my 15 K in at the level I can.

I think you have to approach this like life in Thailand never bring anything you can't afford to walk away from. Believe me it gets real tempting to go the savings account and go Big. Now if things went bad that would hurt me. So that is something I'm not going to do.

ExpatJ recommended a book The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing by Jason Kelly. You can get it from Asiabooks or Amazon. It was perfect for me everything is in plain language making a easy read for guys with no experience.

Zorro, Abrvak and ExpatJ have shown remarkable patience with me. I also get feed back on the Forum of Thaistocks.

I was amazed at my first direction from Paul I was trying to figure out how many shares of what to buy. At the time there were ten stocks in the model Portfolio, his answer devide the money you have by ten and put as much a you can in each stock. Man that just sounded to simple. But, it works overtime you will see stocks you want more of others you will wait on.

Another good source of information is Kelive, they have daily most of them are in high caps, but you will see mid and small caps stocks as well. That will give you a bit of direction to do your study with which I think is an excellent idea.

Hope to keep this going I probably should titled the thread stocks 101

Hope to see you here again so we can share as we learn

[lemonhead]

I won't forget that you only have 90 days in, but remember where you were 90 days ago? That's me, now. Just putting my first foot on the path.

I have been using the SET website, based on the info I saw I made my first 4, essentially random, stock choices. I see what you mean about the benefit of having someone provide you some clear guidance, namely Paul at Thaistocks.

I shall send him a message fairly soon, I am a little busy moving into the house I just bought with my wife, plus a baby girl is due in the next couple of weeks. The dramatic change in my circumstances is what has prompted my interest in investing.

I certainly have no intention of putting all my eggs in one basket (I bet they all say that) I intend to invest spare money that I will not bat an eyelid at losing, not my savings.

The advice you have received from others on this thread is indeed very useful, as is your commentary on your situation. I plan to buy that book and will take a look at Kelive.

[ray23]

I certiialy hope you have a good experience as I have.

[ray23]

WEEKLY UPDATE:

Been a crazy week with the SET ending at 828

The value of my portfolio is now 185,608

33,364 is now cash in the buy fund

with 963 Baht in dividends

So for me a very good week.

[badge]

A logic-defying embrace of Thai stocks over recent days has seen the SET tackle 15month highs.

Assuming this continues, there could be some profit taking at the 800, 815 or 840 levels according to my analysis.

Chai-yo

There was a 105 point decline from 820; 5 points out from the 2nd cited 'profit-taking level'.

830ish has been the recent high, so focus is on 840.

[ray23]

Thanks Badge. Us new guys can use all the help we can get, in understanding. I took profits on Hana and maintain 50% in it. Some of the little guys are starting to move now. As far a I can tell the really bucked the trend this week, even in Asian stocks.

As Abvak said I probably would have learned more through a bit of failure. Actually I did have some. But, cut my losses and moved on. At the moment I'm really centered on five stocks, that just grow slowly and surely and pay good devidends.

I'm still on my 15K plan and will stick to it. Learning what to do with it is the real challenge. I have picked up good guidance along the way from others and I really appreciate the input.

[ray23]

The set really dodged the bullet last week. I took some profits Friday from one stock Looking to add on existing ones Monday. Normally I would be doing that first thing in he morning. This time I believe I will wait until the afternoon and how this effects things.

Just an observation seems best to sale in the morning and buy in the afternoon, when things slow down. The general Asian area stocks were down Friday, Thailand bucked the trend. I know what I want to buy now it's timing, I have learned to bid them now, just takes on little hickup and you get the cheaper price.

I think we will see an adjustment in the SET next week how about you guys?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/US-stocks-plunge-erasing-weeks-rally-on-poor-profi-30134002.html

From The Nation:

US stocks plunge, erasing week's rally on poor profits, confidence

New York - Major US stock indices fell sharply Friday, reversing gains for the week as company earnings came in lower than expected and falling consumer confidence sparked fears of a weakening US economic recovery.

General Electric and Citigroup posted higher profits but still disappointed investors. Bank of America shares fell nearly 10 per cent as the bank reported overall profit gains but a loss in its mortgage and Wall Street trading businesses.

A consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters dropped to 66.5, its lowest reading since August 2009, down from 76 in June.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 261.41 points, or 2.52 per cent, to 10,097.9. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 Index plunged 31.6 points, or 2.88 per cent, to 1,064.88. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 70.03 points, or 3.11 per cent, to 2,179.05.

All three stock indices had rallied through much of the week amid better-than-expected earnings reports from companies like Alcoa and Intel.

With Friday's losses, the Dow was down 0.98 per cent for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.21 per cent and the Nasdaq dropped 0.79 per cent in the last five days of trading.

The US currency was unchanged Friday at 77.37 euro cents and fell against the Japanese currency to 86.67 yen from 87.4 yen on Thursday.

The cost of living in the United States meanwhile decreased by 0.1 per cent in June, marking the third straight monthly drop on the back of falling petrol prices. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, consumer prices climbed 0.2 per cent, the Labour Department reported.//DPA

Edited July 17, 2010 by ray23

[Abrak]

The set really dodged the bullet last week. I took some profits Friday from one stock Looking to add on existing ones Monday. Normally I would be doing that first thing in he morning. This time I believe I will wait until the afternoon and how this effects things.

Just an observation seems best to sale in the morning and buy in the afternoon, when things slow down. The general Asian area stocks were down Friday, Thailand bucked the trend. I know what I want to buy now it's timing, I have learned to bid them now, just takes on little hickup and you get the cheaper price.

I think we will see an adjustment in the SET next week how about you guys?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/US-stocks-plunge-erasing-weeks-rally-on-poor-profi-30134002.html

From The Nation:

US stocks plunge, erasing week's rally on poor profits, confidence

New York - Major US stock indices fell sharply Friday, reversing gains for the week as company earnings came in lower than expected and falling consumer confidence sparked fears of a weakening US economic recovery.

General Electric and Citigroup posted higher profits but still disappointed investors. Bank of America shares fell nearly 10 per cent as the bank reported overall profit gains but a loss in its mortgage and Wall Street trading businesses.

A consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters dropped to 66.5, its lowest reading since August 2009, down from 76 in June.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 261.41 points, or 2.52 per cent, to 10,097.9. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 Index plunged 31.6 points, or 2.88 per cent, to 1,064.88. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 70.03 points, or 3.11 per cent, to 2,179.05.

All three stock indices had rallied through much of the week amid better-than-expected earnings reports from companies like Alcoa and Intel.

With Friday's losses, the Dow was down 0.98 per cent for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.21 per cent and the Nasdaq dropped 0.79 per cent in the last five days of trading.

The US currency was unchanged Friday at 77.37 euro cents and fell against the Japanese currency to 86.67 yen from 87.4 yen on Thursday.

The cost of living in the United States meanwhile decreased by 0.1 per cent in June, marking the third straight monthly drop on the back of falling petrol prices. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, consumer prices climbed 0.2 per cent, the Labour Department reported.//DPA

I am not a very stockmarket caller - usually the chartists like Badge are better at that.

But here are a few fundamentals....

Stockmarket and currency have done exceptionally well. Correlation with the Dow is not high but I do not like the 40% divergence with the Chinese stockmarket.

Fundamental momentum is falling. You cant really do much better than q0q 15.3% SAAR growth. A couple of my stocks will show qoq falls in profit for the first time in 5 quarters.

Fundamentals have been driven by recovery not investment which does not bode well for future growth.

Stockmarket is seasonal with Oct and Nov negative on average over last 20 years. Best day to buy is 6th December.

Good news....

Stocks still offer plenty of value. No signs of a bubble.

Economic fundamentals about the best in the world.

Carry trade into stocks with baht still undervalued still looks attractive. Less sterilisation with BoT Governor. Unlikely to allow the baht to appreciate much until yuan moves. So could ease monetary policy and promote a bit of asset inflation.

However, although I havent followed this closely, one remarkable thing I have noticed. On several days locals have been net buyers on 'up' days. This is highly unusual - it happened in the latter half of 1993 and 2003. Since January locals have been net buyers of Bt18bn. Net buyers in July despite the market going up every day. This can make things go wild because it is a virtuous circle. If someone has some proper stats on that I would like to see them. My stats might be old - but generally it is 95% correct.

I am hoping the market comes back, I sold half my stocks in April. Still if locals are buying a rising market that is classic liquidity bubble stuff. Also an asset bubble would be nice - we havent had one for 20 years.

[ray23]

To be honest what I fear now is we are do for a correction.

As you know I'm on thaistocks as well. Paul is urging caution at the moment. In practising charting what I see is volume down in my performers. Other indication's are for a slow down. Most of my stocks are close to their highs in the past five years. You know it were all up all the time I would have done this 40 years ago.

In my case having more cash on hand then 15K wouldn't be a bad thing. I've done well with that concept but there is no doubt with a 100K cash.

It really takes time for things to sink in with me. I do know I will be very cautious next week. Or maybe longer, to be a value investors values have to be down. I have had simple blind luck along the way that won't last forever.

Ok Guys chip in. At this point I have two people whom I respect, say to be cautious.