Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[ExpatJ]

New play today: sold TMB this morning at the opening and took about 40,000 baht profit as the charts predicted a down turn in price; with the free cash i bought TRUE again (after selling it last week just before a big drop)- because 1) after dropping so much last week it was, i felt ,undervalued and 2) the charts indicated an upward swing (again because of last weeks big drop)- result: TMB closed down end of today, TRUE closed up 11.7% (69,000 baht profit on just under 500K investment).

Im having a run of good luck at the moment (cant say the charts have always been right in the past!)

[ray23]

New play today: sold TMB this morning at the opening and took about 40,000 baht profit as the charts predicted a down turn in price; with the free cash i bought TRUE again (after selling it last week just before a big drop)- because 1) after dropping so much last week it was, i felt ,undervalued and 2) the charts indicated an upward swing (again because of last weeks big drop)- result: TMB closed down end of today, TRUE closed up 11.7% (69,000 baht profit on just under 500K investment).

Im having a run of good luck at the moment (cant say the charts have always been right in the past!)

Actually all an all a pretty crazy day. Almost joined you on TRUE but I went to what I hope will be long term BCP.

Interesting day, if it wasn't a big cap it wasn't moving. A large segment of the investing world is a four day Holiday that ends Wens. So the market had an odd flow to it SET ended up at 931. My stocks were not performing as well as they normally do.

So I ended the day at 86,268 profit what saved my bacon were the dividends I got this month and I have more coming I like that.

So down today 1695 baht

[ray23]

Well it's a bloodbath out there today.

Per kelive this is why

Kim Eng expects the SET to move in 930-940 range today with higher volatility due to the lack of any new positive supportive factor as the New York markets were closed last night. The majority of stock prices now already reflect next year's price fundamentals, especially in the domestic sector.

[ray23]

Well it's a bloodbath out there today.

Per kelive this is why

Kim Eng expects the SET to move in 930-940 range today with higher volatility due to the lack of any new positive supportive factor as the New York markets were closed last night. The majority of stock prices now already reflect next year's price fundamentals, especially in the domestic sector.

Well I came out of it not to bad down 6900 still well into the black

[ray23]

That means in total I'm down 6900 from my top profit since I started five months ago, not 6900 in one day. I have a running P&L going so know where I'm at for each day. Remember I'm in a learning phase.

Things are not shaping for a good day today. The EU Bank stress tests are showing that some may have cooked the book to look better. That in turn passed on to the U.S., where volume was way down toady and for the most part dropped one percent.

In watching CNBC last night, one of the presenters made the comment in the market today, buy and hold um doesn't apply as it used to.

I know Thaistocks has recommended taking profits several times in the last five month's I was curious about it. Maybe it's just the approach you need to take these days. I don't know I know I have made profits.

ExpatJ's help on charting ha proven pretty accurate over all. As does ABvaks view on volume. The I had candle stick help and for the life of me I can't remember who helped me with that one. Anyway Thanks guys.

I'm almost finished with the intelligent Investor by Graham. Tough read for a novice. But, beyond that he goes in to so much that you just can't do here. I look forward to the day someone writes about this market. There si one out now but I understand it goes heavy into visa's sitting up business's ect. I've been here eight years so most likely not a lot of help to me.

Well when the othe books refer to him at least I know what they are talking about.

The big question this month who will win the two 3-g license's

Edited September 8, 2010 by ray23

[ExpatJ]

This morning im selling my TRUE and PTT to take profits from them (and their charts dont look good either). and im buying LANNA, good strong fundamentals and charts look good this morning....

Lets see what happens!

[ray23]

Watch for a turn around this morning. Nothing looked good yesterday. Today we have good news from the states and volumes were up again there this morning. True not looking good for the Bid?

[ExpatJ]

Watch for a turn around this morning. Nothing looked good yesterday. Today we have good news from the states and volumes were up again there this morning. True not looking good for the Bid?

I saw another report this morning that DTAc/AIS are the favorites. But im still thinking that TRUE could come from behind- but TRUE is jumping up and down +/- 10% almost daily over the last week, so im buying and selling to get profit from this movement.

[ExpatJ]

Ive been reviewing about when the best time to sell is- there have been a few times when i have bought a stock and its jumped up and i have a nice profit (on paper) then i get greedy and keep it hoping it continues upwards and the next thing i know its gone down and im losing money on it.....so....im thinking..maybe to set a cash target (not a percentage) say if a stock hits 1 or 2,000 US $ profit, i sell and bank that amount. But doesnt seem logical somehow!

Edited September 9, 2010 by ExpatJ

[MrRichard2009]

I have been investing as my sole source of income since the early 80's, my best advice and while it's pretty common is just don't be greedy. Avoid the bubbles by taking profits on the way up and don't be concerned that your losing potential profits on the way up. The THD is the American ETF for the SET but you probably know that. In today's interconnected economic economy while some stocks and countries may move a little better or differently overall nowadays the Macro economy is key to investing. I find a lot of usual advice nonsense, like dollar cost averaging, people shouldn't try and time the market, don't use leveraging, and all the rest.

If one had shorted and then gone long on the last 2 bubbles in 10 years they would be much more wealthy than the buy and hold people. When I am thinking of buying I always ask myself would I buy this if it were a triple weighted equity like the numerous 3X ETF's. If the answer is no then I wait until the answer is yes. One of the common misconceptions is that being fully invested or close to it is going to make you more, logical as it might seem the more you have invested the more you can make it also means the less you have to invest and the more you lose in the downturns. Their would never be a time when Warren Buffet didn't have billions and billions in cash reserves.

In today's world being diversified in stocks is not as much protection as people think or it used to be, during the internet bubble "safe havens" crashed just as much, same with the housing bubble crash, if you want diversity you need to branch out a bit more in my opinion, Art, Classic cars, Income Property, things of that nature. Cash is not some terrible "dead" asset as the pundits would tell you, it loses value because of inflation, and all that. Cash is the best thing to have at plenty of times in your life. When the market crashes that Cash is what everyone wants more of, and markets bubble and crash at least every 10 years or so although there have been periods when they didn't.

Don't be a 1 trick pony either, shorting stocks makes just as much as going long just in a different direction, I firmly believe that those who are looking for good shorts instead of always thinking about going long see the bubbles forming and see the crashes coming far far more easily, I'm just the average Joe so it didn't matter much but I was telling of the housing bubble crash on yahoo answers for about 6 months prior to the burst. Same with the internet bubble but their is no record of that, I went to cash and bought property during that bubble and sold the property and went back to stocks after the crash.

With the recent crash and pretty much 100% returns over the run up I went back to cash again, I am waiting for more clarity over the world economy, it would seem pretty clear that the sluggish rebound is not keeping pace with the need for the world to pay back it's debts, doesn't mean the markets wont go up but it's not all that sensible to sink a bunch of money in after a doubling of markets, with high unemployment, high debt, somewhat tapped out resources, and near 0 fed funds rates...... If you were asked a test question and given the present data and situation even people fully invested right now would probably answer that this is not a very good time to invest.

I know none of that is Thailand related and the Thai economy is very good with low debt, low unemployment ect ...... However it is still going to go up or down pretty closely with the world economic situation. Yes it's at or near all time highs and seems like it could become or is already disconnected from other markets especially the USA, but it's just another "new normal" or "new p\e ratio era" illusion that will be short lived, it could very well lead the world indexes but it will go up and down pretty much the same as who it's leading. Having said that if I was forced to invest the SET or THD would be in the top of my choices.

Look for a large move up in November and a large move after one way or the other based on economic news.

That's my 2 cents have fun.

[ray23]

Excellent post thanks. All the book I have read thus far have read so far it's buy and hold.

Problem I see with them most written ten years or so ago and not in the world we deal with today

Me yesterday nothing but a red screen sold completly out in the morning. I waited for it to continue to fall till 1600 Bought back into the cream of the crop, also allowed me the n money to chase the 3-g bidders.

The reason I bought back in I felt it was a flinch from the make not having the feed back from the states that they are used to. I don't know if I was right or wrong but I'm in he black.

actually bought back a few that I had ben holding at a cheaper price in the afternoon and sure enough they plugging along today just fine.

Anyone have the names of book more attuned nor closely to what we deal with today in Thailand?

[ExpatJ]

This morning im selling my TRUE and PTT to take profits from them (and their charts dont look good either). and im buying LANNA, good strong fundamentals and charts look good this morning....

Lets see what happens!

It worked today. Both PTT and TRUE went down as per charts while LANNA increased and i have made 18,000 baht on LANNA but i think i will hold on to them and check lanna's charts tomorrow (bloomberg updates their charts over night) -but i suspect the price will increase tomorrow as well.

My other stocks- BANPU, TTA, ADVANC also had a very good day today. Baltic Dry Index is having a good run in the last few days which i think is driving up the TTA price (albeit slowly)

[ray23]

For whats it worth Kelieve is calling for an accumulate on DTAC. I did good today as well. Combination of things Advanc is the only large cap I have. Dtac is a mid cap isn't it?

[churchill]

I have been investing as my sole source of income since the early 80's, my best advice and while it's pretty common is just don't be greedy. Avoid the bubbles by taking profits on the way up and don't be concerned that your losing potential profits on the way up. The THD is the American ETF for the SET but you probably know that. In today's interconnected economic economy while some stocks and countries may move a little better or differently overall nowadays the Macro economy is key to investing. I find a lot of usual advice nonsense, like dollar cost averaging, people shouldn't try and time the market, don't use leveraging, and all the rest.

If one had shorted and then gone long on the last 2 bubbles in 10 years they would be much more wealthy than the buy and hold people. When I am thinking of buying I always ask myself would I buy this if it were a triple weighted equity like the numerous 3X ETF's. If the answer is no then I wait until the answer is yes. One of the common misconceptions is that being fully invested or close to it is going to make you more, logical as it might seem the more you have invested the more you can make it also means the less you have to invest and the more you lose in the downturns. Their would never be a time when Warren Buffet didn't have billions and billions in cash reserves.

In today's world being diversified in stocks is not as much protection as people think or it used to be, during the internet bubble "safe havens" crashed just as much, same with the housing bubble crash, if you want diversity you need to branch out a bit more in my opinion, Art, Classic cars, Income Property, things of that nature. Cash is not some terrible "dead" asset as the pundits would tell you, it loses value because of inflation, and all that. Cash is the best thing to have at plenty of times in your life. When the market crashes that Cash is what everyone wants more of, and markets bubble and crash at least every 10 years or so although there have been periods when they didn't.

Don't be a 1 trick pony either, shorting stocks makes just as much as going long just in a different direction, I firmly believe that those who are looking for good shorts instead of always thinking about going long see the bubbles forming and see the crashes coming far far more easily, I'm just the average Joe so it didn't matter much but I was telling of the housing bubble crash on yahoo answers for about 6 months prior to the burst. Same with the internet bubble but their is no record of that, I went to cash and bought property during that bubble and sold the property and went back to stocks after the crash.

With the recent crash and pretty much 100% returns over the run up I went back to cash again, I am waiting for more clarity over the world economy, it would seem pretty clear that the sluggish rebound is not keeping pace with the need for the world to pay back it's debts, doesn't mean the markets wont go up but it's not all that sensible to sink a bunch of money in after a doubling of markets, with high unemployment, high debt, somewhat tapped out resources, and near 0 fed funds rates...... If you were asked a test question and given the present data and situation even people fully invested right now would probably answer that this is not a very good time to invest.

I know none of that is Thailand related and the Thai economy is very good with low debt, low unemployment ect ...... However it is still going to go up or down pretty closely with the world economic situation. Yes it's at or near all time highs and seems like it could become or is already disconnected from other markets especially the USA, but it's just another "new normal" or "new p\e ratio era" illusion that will be short lived, it could very well lead the world indexes but it will go up and down pretty much the same as who it's leading. Having said that if I was forced to invest the SET or THD would be in the top of my choices.

Look for a large move up in November and a large move after one way or the other based on economic news.

That's my 2 cents have fun.

High time for Thailand

Commentary: Thailand ETFs rally on global strength of local companies

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-driver-of-thailand-etfs-rally-2010-09-08

[cocopops]

Excellent post thanks. All the book I have read thus far have read so far it's buy and hold.

Problem I see with them most written ten years or so ago and not in the world we deal with today

Me yesterday nothing but a red screen sold completly out in the morning. I waited for it to continue to fall till 1600 Bought back into the cream of the crop, also allowed me the n money to chase the 3-g bidders.

The reason I bought back in I felt it was a flinch from the make not having the feed back from the states that they are used to. I don't know if I was right or wrong but I'm in he black.

actually bought back a few that I had ben holding at a cheaper price in the afternoon and sure enough they plugging along today just fine.

Anyone have the names of book more attuned nor closely to what we deal with today in Thailand?

You already read one. The first chapter of Graham's book says pretty much all that can be sensibly said about this new approach to the new market. That doesn't mean he was right of course, but what he does say is the only rational evidence-based conclusion one can come to.Including the bit about it being super-fun when you're winning.

Edited September 10, 2010 by cocopops

[ray23]

Well after reading the first two chapters I was ready to cash out and throw the book away.

This would definetly effect investing here

NATION ROUNDTABLE

Tax restructure needed to boost govt revenue

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

The Nation

Published on September 13, 2010

Capital gains tax seen as good way to cut wealth disparity between rich, poor

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A well-known Thai housing estate developer recently reaped a handsome Bt3-billion profit after selling a big chunk of shares in his listed property firm.

He did not pay any tax on his massive windfall profit - which raises serious questions about the fairness of this loophole to society at large.

Should Thailand come up with a windfall tax to re-distribute income and boost state revenue for public welfare schemes?

At a Nation Roundtable on social welfare and populist policies, held last Thursday, Korbsak Sabhavasu, the prime minister's secretary-general, said the country badly needed to broaden its tax revenue base to finance national development.

Out of the 60-million population and a workforce of about 30 million, there are currently about five million salaried workers nationwide, who reliably pay personal income tax every month.

Most of the remaining workers, especially daily wage earners, do not pay income tax because their wages are not high enough to be taxable.

On the other hand, the wealthy have a lot of leeway to evade tax.

"When you see a Ferrari driver in Bangkok, he or she is mostly likely not a salaried worker," Korbsak said.

As a result, most of the rich do not pay taxes properly and it's more difficult to tax them than employees on the payroll.

Besides, Thailand has neither a windfall tax nor a capital gains tax - so people who making huge profits on the stock market are exempt from paying their dues.

Ampon Kitti-ampon, the outgoing secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), shared the opinion, admitting the country had failed to evenly distribute national income.

"Our GDP has doubled to Bt10 trillion, but people in the Northeast, who account for one-third of the entire population, are today poorer than a few decades ago as their share of GDP is down to one tenth from one eighth.

"Today, owners of capital control about 70 per cent of the national economy, while workers and skilled operators share the remaining 30 per cent. Hence, we're still far from a model of inclusive economic growth," said Ampon, who is set to be Cabinet secretary-general on October 1.

Uneven income distribution and economic development have inevitably led politicians to turn to populist and welfare policies to win votes. But what are the differences between the two?

Pornsil Patcharintanakul, deputy secretary-general of Thai Chamber of Commerce, told the Roundtable that populism in the 1980s could be seen as an ideology between capitalism and socialism.

"It highlights the role of communities (in national development). On the other hand, state welfare is more established and there are varying forms, starting with what could be called social security and the social safety net to the highest degree, social welfare. In my opinion, a welfare state is costly, as in Scandinavia's 'from-cradle-to-grave' welfare (in which tax collection as a percentage of GDP could be as high as 40-50 per cent, compared to Thailand's 14-17 per cent).

"Secondly, we've to ensure that our welfare or populist policies are sustainable, efficient and effective in terms of narrowing the gap between rich and poor, and in terms of boosting national productivity."

Pornsil and other panellists said basic state services for the people - such as healthcare and education - should be regarded as social welfare measures. But moves such as reducing farmers' debts and the Bt76-billion Village Fund programme, or cash hand-outs, were "populist" moves aimed at winning votes.

Based on these criteria, the Abhisit government has implemented both social welfare and populist measures, as did previous governments, including those of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was famous for his populist policies.

The Abhisit government's policy of providing 15 years of free public schooling is a social welfare scheme, while his earlier cash handout of Bt2,000 per person was populist.

The universal healthcare scheme is also a social welfare programme, but debt reduction for farmers and other poor people is a populist move.

Sompong Tancharoenphol, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said he doesn't mind if a measure is a populist and social welfare one - as long as it's effective in improving people's welfare.

"More importantly, there shouldn't be abuse or leakage of public funds in these schemes. It's good for the government to spend billions on free-of-charge education, but more should be done to improve the quality of teachers and other software," he said.

After all, both populist and welfare policies need funds, but current funding is not enough so there should be tax reform to boost government revenue. The Finance Ministry will have to find new ways to generate more income. Besides capital gains and windfall taxes, the ministry should consider a value-added tax (VAT) hike from the current 7 per cent rate, among other measures.

[humbug]

if they do introduce capita gains they will be a shock reaction for a while, but i cant see it be anything more than a token gesture, something on the lines of what china introduced, they introduced a capital gains tax of .1 percent a couple of years ago, if thailand copies china rate then all that will happen as the broker commisions are reduced in its place would be the capital gains tax, which would be like an added comm charge every time you buy and sell.

for the time being though all the talk is only talk and its just a few guys trying to look good for the masses, probably the same kind of guys who think its ok to murder the masses if they dont agree to facism

i changed my stocks from small caps to derrivitave warrants on the energy sector and its working very well, it seems alot of the small caps are just lying there drifting and the energy stocks are just pounding away, today i just sold ptt13cc, looking at banp13cb and pttc13ca and seeing if i can look at mini-selloffs to pick up on the momentum trading, if ptt13cc has a nice selloff during the late afternoon i might jump back

[ray23]

It would take the backing of those who would lose the most and I don't think that is going to happen.

I have a few small caps that are holding their own, But most of the money is going into large caps.

[ray23]

Did better then I anticipated today profits are now at 77,933, since I started That up's 2K from Friday.

You know it was easy to see how things worked when it was a bear market, not so easy with a bull market, not every stock is going up.

[MrRichard2009]

Did better then I anticipated today profits are now at 77,933, since I started That up's 2K from Friday.

You know it was easy to see how things worked when it was a bear market, not so easy with a bull market, not every stock is going up.

Stocks are supposed to be priced at what people think they will be worth in 6 months ..... a lot can happen in 6 months .... Hence NOBODY knows "how things work" ...... Most people claiming that are making more money from trading and client fees than anything else Steve Forbes, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet included.

[ray23]

Well they won't let me do that so I have stick with this.

As someone pointed out fun when your winning, not nearly a much fun when your losing.

The figures I'm posting are net after fees. It's a running P&L from day one.

From day one I wanted to know how much I gained or lost in one year. Seven months to go still haven't figured out what type of investor I am value or?

One of the hardest things for me is finding the right stock in the first place, following news helps.

I've learned value them now. But there are lot of stocks on the market to just check them one by one.

I could probably just did a minimal check and eliminate them as I went, Sounds like a lot of work to me.

[MrRichard2009]

Well they won't let me do that so I have stick with this.

As someone pointed out fun when your winning, not nearly a much fun when your losing.

The figures I'm posting are net after fees. It's a running P&L from day one.

From day one I wanted to know how much I gained or lost in one year. Seven months to go still haven't figured out what type of investor I am value or?

One of the hardest things for me is finding the right stock in the first place, following news helps.

I've learned value them now. But there are lot of stocks on the market to just check them one by one.

I could probably just did a minimal check and eliminate them as I went, Sounds like a lot of work to me.

You should probably invest in a basket of growth, value, and some speculative, as well as a short or 2 ........ Try to expand your mindset and I think it will help

[ray23]

Thanks seems to be where I'm actually heading. I try to find value stocks, but so far I haven't held on forever. Matter of fact have been told several times to take profits. Being new I did as I was told a may have reduced my earning doing so. I notice in Kelive they call for taking 10% That seem that it may be a better approach and get the full profit.

This is confusing isn't CAT a Goevernment Agency?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/09/13/business/PM-Govt-wants-full-scale-3G-service-30137847.html

[ray23]

CAT laws suit declined by court

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/09/14/business/One-3G-bid-hurdle-cleared-30137914.html

[ray23]

Really a very hectic day. thought I was goner for sure this morning minus 193 on profits. The afternoon picked up. So I gained profits for the day I'm now 78,717.

Still haven't seen what is going to happen with the auction, nor do I have clue what to do if they cancel it.

[ray23]

Ended up at 75 K today, it's interesting for a week now I have ran between 75 & 78 K, Hey sideways is a lot better then down.

This 3-G thing is enough to put you over the edge, no ruling announced yet, The auction is in three days. I took defensive position today and sold my DTAC bought into TRUE the lessor of two evils. I hold advanc. If they have an auction I'm set. If they don't darned if I know sell I guess.

[churchill]

Not yet on the SET but due to float this year - Worth keeping an eye on /

'With the prices continuously rising, gold is the favourite location for all investors. They also hunt for gold mining companies’ stocks also to make some quick bucks.

But an article appeared in The Wall Street Journal has cautioned the investors to be careful in picking their stocks.

Analysts recommended Kingsgate Consolidated, which is producing at the rate of 130,000oz from its Chatree mine in Thailand, as reliable'

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-stocks-ride-bull-wave-31801-3-1.html

[maipasathai]

Hi Ray,

A few things in common. We both live in Udon and thanks to you I found ASP. I tried Bualung as I have been with Bangkok Bank for 5 years but after 3 months still no reply even if showing up the 500.000 THB they demanded. ASP sorted it out in less than two weeks. Still have the money hanging with Bualuang but when the Bangkok Bank in Udon (the main office in Udon)didn't have a clue about stock trading I gave up the hope.

If you are ready for a beer out in Udon to discuss the stock market, motor bikes or Udon in general just feel free to send me a PM.

I'm new to the Thai stock market and just want to try something simple. Using a (heavily modified)Donchian system. MM and RM is the most important to me. After decades in the commodity, options and forex when trading on margin you know how to messaure risk. All my trades are measured in R-multiples.

If you want to read up on something try to google prospect theory or finacial behavior. Will show you everything how unlogical people are.

IMHO were we are to day is that people are sitting with loads of unrealized profits. If they start to sell these stocks they have to be picked up by somebody and maybe the foreigners will do it. If so we looking for a consiliditation period and after we will see SET at 1000. If not we will see a reversal. Where it will end, I dont have a clue. Keep your stops in place (MM! RM!). Just my personel opinion. I have my stops in place but hope those shares can be picked up by stronger hands.

Cheers

Bosse

[ray23]

I will PM you. there is another investor here, maybe we can all get together. That would be fun.

[ray23]

Well they canceled the 3-G auction and now there is an appeal in progress to have it. I got in early enough that I didn't get hurt to bad and still at a profit. I got some time under my belt now and I will regroup. But, this didn't help investors confidence for sure. This issues should have been resolved long before the auction was sit. So there were investors hurt by this that is what they will remember.

I think I will wait until after Monday and the big baht meeting