What Will The Future Look Like For Thailand?

[pprem]

Two of the main sources of income for Thailand have largely been ignored for a long time. Electronics and technology are a major export for Thailand, but the government hasn't invested in education. Same for tourism. Tourism is easy money, but all the interesting things about Thailand have been left to rot.

Now we add the instable political situation. We thai people used to look down on Vietnam, Burma and China, but now it seems that they even out-compete us with rice.

What do you guys think will happen to Thailand?

P.Prem

[MJP]

Probably quite rosy, at least I REALLY HOPE!

Could see the domination of a pan-Asian bond market replacing the need to recycle money through the West (London and NY bond markets).

Local financing for development, Ford Thailand was a good example of this.

More infrastructure development country-wide . . . one of the reasons for the Western post war super boom. Probably more hydroelectric and other sustainable energy development.

3G/4G and nationwide Wifi.

Improved environmental protection and waste management.

More foreign investment as costs in China increase reducing Chinas competitive dominance.

All good.

Threats to this:

Politics and something else can't mention.

Health, second wave of HIV, increases in obesity and diabetes

Educational standards in state schools need to rise.

Westernization (the bad bits) of young people, the rise of chav culture (like wot 'appened in Blighty in parts). 

Rainfall. Had a few dry years, up here in Issan it's now a problem for farmers. Also the Three Gorges Dam and reduced flow of the Mekong.

[pprem]

Probably quite rosy, at least I REALLY HOPE!

Could see the domination of a pan-Asian bond market replacing the need to recycle money through the West (London and NY bond markets).

Local financing for development, Ford Thailand was a good example of this.

More infrastructure development country-wide . . . one of the reasons for the Western post war super boom. Probably more hydroelectric and other sustainable energy development.

3G/4G and nationwide Wifi.

Improved environmental protection and waste management.

More foreign investment as costs in China increase reducing Chinas competitive dominance.

All good.

Threats to this:

Politics and something else can't mention.

Health, second wave of HIV, increases in obesity and diabetes

Educational standards in state schools need to rise.

Westernization (the bad bits) of young people, the rise of chav culture (like wot 'appened in Blighty in parts).

Rainfall. Had a few dry years, up here in Issan it's now a problem for farmers. Also the Three Gorges Dam and reduced flow of the Mekong.

I hope so too, but still worried.

How did the west look at the red shirt provocation? Do they still trust Thailand with their investment? Will it be accepted if the "great leader that was" ever returns?

Why do you think China and Vietnam won't be that competitive anymore? Prices and wages here are going to rise as well.

The environment is a big problem right now and I'm unsure if this is going to be addressed.

I agree on the threats part.

Wondering about the part you can't mention

P.Prem

[MJP]

Probably quite rosy, at least I REALLY HOPE!

Could see the domination of a pan-Asian bond market replacing the need to recycle money through the West (London and NY bond markets).

Local financing for development, Ford Thailand was a good example of this.

More infrastructure development country-wide . . . one of the reasons for the Western post war super boom. Probably more hydroelectric and other sustainable energy development.

3G/4G and nationwide Wifi.

Improved environmental protection and waste management.

More foreign investment as costs in China increase reducing Chinas competitive dominance.

All good.

Threats to this:

Politics and something else can't mention.

Health, second wave of HIV, increases in obesity and diabetes

Educational standards in state schools need to rise.

Westernization (the bad bits) of young people, the rise of chav culture (like wot 'appened in Blighty in parts).

Rainfall. Had a few dry years, up here in Issan it's now a problem for farmers. Also the Three Gorges Dam and reduced flow of the Mekong.

I hope so too, but still worried.

How did the west look at the red shirt provocation? Do they still trust Thailand with their investment? Will it be accepted if the "great leader that was" ever returns?

Why do you think China and Vietnam won't be that competitive anymore? Prices and wages here are going to rise as well.

The environment is a big problem right now and I'm unsure if this is going to be addressed.

I agree on the threats part.

Wondering about the part you can't mention

P.Prem

The Western bond traders (good barometer) are mostly worried about the thing we can't mention, coups are accepted as a normal part of Thai politics. But look, growth will likely come from within Asia (pan-Asian bond market). We have real problems back home in the West, I can tell you it ain't good. Debt and demographics and dependency (on the state).

China is heading for trouble internally with people having had enough of the communists. Wage rise demands, these people are taking the first steps out of slavery, Foxconn being an example. Also real estate bubbles (may be deflationary though). Wages will rise here, hopefully without too much inflation and therefore living standards.

I have noticed a massive change in attitude in Issan. The birth rate is down (ultimately we need to tackle the capitalist model for infinite growth at some point) and parents are becoming more interested in their children's education and futures. Also I see much less alcoholism (Lao Kao really stopped these folks in their tracks for a while, worse than illegal drugs). They also seem more driven, ambitious, much less lazy and more organised, planning futures.

I hope you go for improved environmental management, my services might come in handy. 

[evanson]

[quote}

I have noticed a massive change in attitude in Issan. The birth rate is down (ultimately we need to tackle the capitalist model for infinite growth at some point) and parents are becoming more interested in their children's education and futures. Also I see much less alcoholism (Lao Kao really stopped these folks in their tracks for a while, worse than illegal drugs). They also seem more driven, ambitious, much less lazy and more organised, planning futures.

I hope you go for improved environmental management, my services might come in handy.

What, in your opinion, has given rise to your observations I have highlighted in bold type? Is there a single element giving them hope of a better future, or a number of things giving grist to their mill of providing a better future for themselves, hopefully brought about by themselves. Whatever it is, it's a great step forward.

[MJP]

 

I have noticed a massive change in attitude in Issan. The birth rate is down (ultimately we need to tackle the capitalist model for infinite growth at some point) and parents are becoming more interested in their children's education and futures. Also I see much less alcoholism (Lao Kao really stopped these folks in their tracks for a while, worse than illegal drugs). They also seem more driven, ambitious, much less lazy and more organised, planning futures.

I hope you go for improved environmental management, my services might come in handy.  

What, in your opinion, has given rise to your observations I have highlighted in bold type? Is there a single element giving them hope of a better future, or a number of things giving grist to their mill of providing a better future for themselves, hopefully brought about by themselves. Whatever it is, it's a great step forward.

Been here 9 years now. When I first arrived it was the 3rd world and devoid of hope for prosperity. It was [almost] hunter gatherer stuff.

They're developing! From small acorns do mighty oak trees grow.

In fairness the global credit boom had a big effect, lot of money poured in here which gave it a kick start. Thaksin still had a good effect, for good or bad he did give these people the feeling they had a stake in wider society and that they may not in fact be 2nd class citizens. Infrastructure has improved beyond measure improving their quality of life (years ago power could be off for days, water too, roads were dire . . . all good now). Again, hope gains momentum.

Folks are building new houses, taking pride in how they live. It's just that first jump into a better civilization.

[Chunky1]

More censorship. Less freedom of expression. More oppressive central government. Stronger military presence in government.

Upward economic movement and continual growth.

An endless number of farang retirees on ThaiVisa bitching and moaning like a bunch of cogs.

[MJP]

More censorship. Less freedom of expression. More oppressive central government. Stronger military presence in government.

Upward economic movement and continual growth.

An endless number of farang retirees on ThaiVisa bitching and moaning like a bunch of cogs.

I can certainly see much more regulation. That red number plates fine of 2,000-10,000 Baht if you don't get the white plate within a month or 3000km is an example. There's loads of mad regs already I know, but with development and also growing government expect various tax raising means to be introduced (probably have G. Brown as the consultant).

[pprem]

More censorship. Less freedom of expression. More oppressive central government. Stronger military presence in government.

Upward economic movement and continual growth.

An endless number of farang retirees on ThaiVisa bitching and moaning like a bunch of cogs.

You're not giving me much hope here. More money, less freedom

P.Prem

[MJP]

More censorship. Less freedom of expression. More oppressive central government. Stronger military presence in government.

Upward economic movement and continual growth.

An endless number of farang retirees on ThaiVisa bitching and moaning like a bunch of cogs.

You're not giving me much hope here. More money, less freedom

P.Prem

The 'oppression' will likely be higher taxes and more state regulation and interference (Western style).

I've tried to explain to reds about Mr. T. That he just happened to be in power during the biggest credit boom in human history and the huge amount of money flowing round the world at the time was down to the G. Sachs crookery of securitization and not Mr. T. Also that a certain person legged it with the loot.

It doesn't register.

[game4shame]

future for thailand = good for thais, bad for farang.

eg take a look at the exchange rate, although that could be a double-edged sword if tourism is taken into account. bad exchange rate = less farang = less money coming into the country.

[zzaa09]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

[MJP]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

I agree, but sadly it will. Capitalist models and demographics.

Distribution of wealth should improve, hopefully on the back of real wealth creation rather than the western debt model.

I did notice bankers formerly from London relocating to SE Asia. (info from another forum).

Edited July 25, 2010 by MJP

[game4shame]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

agreed.

you can just see it - 10 years from now, tuk tuks are banned for health & safety reasons.

[MJP]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

agreed.

you can just see it - 10 years from now, tuk tuks are banned for health & safety reasons.

Yup!

Exactly that. I encourage the West to adopt baht buses for towns, ideal I think. Do you think this would happen? 

[Garry9999]

any ideas how the world will embrace/ignore Thailand in the future - With bemused in-deference?

[MJP]

any ideas how the world will embrace/ignore Thailand in the future - With bemused in-deference?

Even though I think much of the future economic development of this country will come from within Asia, the US still plays a part. They are likely to become more protectionist over the coming years and it is possible future trade agreements with the US may contain less favourable terms.

I'm no expert (by far) on Thai - US FTA's though.

[Garry9999]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

agreed.

you can just see it - 10 years from now, tuk tuks are banned for health & safety reasons.

They where going to faze them out 10 years ago!

[MJP]

The best future for Thailand? Don't emulate the West.

agreed.

you can just see it - 10 years from now, tuk tuks are banned for health & safety reasons.

They where going to faze them out 10 years ago!

Sunday Times reporting speed cameras to be abolished in Blighty. So one country one way . . . the other . . . the other.

Tuk tuks will still be around but expect enforced emissions standards.

[IMA_FARANG]

I expect Thailand will "muddle through" for a few years. The Thai government is in-efficent and corrupt. The saving grace (and I say this in spite of the laughter of many farangs who will read this) is the Thai work force...and it's possibilities. The Thai government is usually it's own worst enemy...it's at least twenty years behind reality in it's attitudes and laws.

First of all, I said it before and will say it again here. Tourisim as a money earner and creator of real jobs for Thai workers is a trap. Most tourist jobs are low end jobs, and there is no chance of advancing from them to more technological higher-skill jobs. Releying on tourisim to stimulate the economy will leave Thailand stuck forever in a service industry economy. Thailand can not develop a real strong economy if it's main product is maids, bellhops, and taxi-drivers for tourists. (not to even mention the other less healthy "service industry" jobs for so-called "touists" to Thailand,i.e. as currently seen in Pattaya). Tourist dollars are like giving more alchohol to a alchoholic...it justs makes the situation worse.

Another problem with Thailand is the Thai education system. Far too much of the Thai education system is based on memorisation, and the rote repeating of "answers" so that students can simply pass tests. A Thai student can graduate from school, having learned nothing but the correct answers to the test questions...but never having learned how to use thier supposed knowledge to actually thnk through and solve real world problems. Thailand doesn't need the type of "educated illiterates" that passed through school with good grades, but can't use their education to solve real world problems in industry. So, unless the education system in Thailand changes to a system that teaches not answers for tests but teaches how to think and solve real world problems....Thailand will always lag behind other countries in South East Asia.

But having said the above, Thailand can have a good future. One thing that needs to be rsolved however, is the tax situation. Too much of the tax burden in Thailand is carried by the middle class...the very people who can lead Thailand out of it's tourisim/service industry trap. And the upper 10 to 15 percent of the income earners pay far to little in tax burden compared to those below them. Thailand has adopted the "top down" economic theories of the west. This assumes that the well-off will earn the money that spurs economic growth for the country because there income will "trickle down" into the economy. Unfortunatly, that won't work in Thailand...because the tax laws are such that the wealthy do not pay their fair share of the burden for the infrastructure (schools, hospitals, etc) that they should. Futhermore it is far too easy for the wealthy to find ways to get money they earn in Thailand out of Thailand. It leads to the situation where the rich stay rich, and the poor stay poor. Until tht is changed (frankly I think it's unlikely without real fundamental changes in Thailand) Thailand will always lag behind other countries in S.E. Asia.

Again, having said all that, I'm not pessimistic. Things will change, if only because the majority of Thais will become fed up with being the poor relations to the rich. So things will, change. Unfortunately, that change may be violent, and cause a lot of problems. However, I believe Thailand will eventually come through those bad times. It will survive, because of the strength of the mass of the average Thai workers will pull Thailand through.

There are things an elightened government in Thailand could do gto help Thailand through the transistion. In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast? Here are 3 reasons; an honest government with no corruption, a government that used enforced savings (each worker was required to deposit some of their salary into a government bank) to develop the local infrastructure for everyone (transportation, education, health) wisely and honestly, and an attitude that promoted Singapore based industry over foriegn based industry. It still could be done in Thailand...if there were politicians who had the guts to force it.

That's how Singapore developed...and look at it today. If Thailand did the same, just think what Thailand coud be like in 35 years (about one generation)from now.

That's Thailand's choice...to do it the easy way...or to do it the hard way (with violence, social problems, and disruption). The politicians in Thailand will be the ones to decide.

Edited July 25, 2010 by IMA_FARANG

[game4shame]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast? Here are 3 reasons; an honest government with no corruption, a government that used enforced savings (each worker was required to deposit some of their salary into a government bank) to develop the local infrastructure for everyone (transportation, education, health) wisely and honestly, and an attitude that promoted Singapore based industry over foriegn based industry. It still could be done in Thailand...if there were politicians who had the guts to force it.

That's how Singapore developed...and look at it today. If Thailand did the same, just think what Thailand coud be like in 35 years (about one generation)from now.

That's Thailand's choice...to do it the easy way...or to do it the hard way (with violence, social problems, and disruption). The politicians in Thailand will be the ones to decide.

although it would obviously benefit thais if thailand developed into a singapore type country, it would drain the fun from the country - let's face it, singapore is pretty boring. clean, safe and organised but unbelievably boring IMO.

thailand is a bit rough round the edges but that's the attraction for many visitors.

as I said previously (and I hope Im wrong) - future for thailand = good for thais, bad for farang.

[gregb]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast? Here are 3 reasons; an honest government with no corruption, a government that used enforced savings (each worker was required to deposit some of their salary into a government bank) to develop the local infrastructure for everyone (transportation, education, health) wisely and honestly, and an attitude that promoted Singapore based industry over foriegn based industry. It still could be done in Thailand...if there were politicians who had the guts to force it.

That's how Singapore developed...and look at it today. If Thailand did the same, just think what Thailand coud be like in 35 years (about one generation)from now.

That's Thailand's choice...to do it the easy way...or to do it the hard way (with violence, social problems, and disruption). The politicians in Thailand will be the ones to decide.

although it would obviously benefit thais if thailand developed into a singapore type country, it would drain the fun from the country - let's face it, singapore is pretty boring. clean, safe and organised but unbelievably boring IMO.

thailand is a bit rough round the edges but that's the attraction for many visitors.

as I said previously (and I hope Im wrong) - future for thailand = good for thais, bad for farang.

Singapore is only a few hundred square kilometers. There is a huge difference between rigidly managing a small island and trying to rigidly manage a country the size of Thailand. Malaysia would be a more realistic model to adopt. It is much easier to completely eliminate corruption in a small area than a big one. The heirarchy is much, much more complex. Malaysia still has corruption, but substantially less than its neighbour to the North.

I for one would never accept forced savings into a government bank. I don't even trust the Thai currency, let alone an undesirable savings account in a currency I don't trust. Might as well just make it a tax. I'll save my money in gold, thank you very much.

My personal opinion though is that we will continue along as we are right now for the next decade. Things will get worse, but only because things are getting worse on the entire planet. Relative to other countries, Thailand will be improving. The currency will continue to climb vs. currencies of the West, but not vs. the RMB. Hopefully, small strides will be made in getting people to adopt the sufficiency economy rather than the debt based economy that is strangling the West. The political situation will eventually be solved when Thaksin and his supporters die off, and fresh minds come into the picture who have their own concerns of political power rather than those of their parents.

In a few decades, Thailand will be much better off than many countries in the West. Not because Thailand advanced, but because the West fell substantially. I expect to see Baht busses running in the West in a few decades. It won't be sanctioned by the government, but it will be tolerated in the decaying suburbs because it will be necessary and the government simply won't have the money or resources to police the area.

The coming energy crisis is going to be the great equalizer. Once the resource wars have finished and nobody has a big surplus anymore, the old knowledge available in Thailand about how to farm and how to be self sufficient is going to be vastly superior to life in the West where this is largely forgotten. A 12 year old nephew of mine thought a potato grew on a tree. That is just inexcusable.

China will be the regional power, and the children will be learning to speak Mandarin rather than English. Poverty will be endemic. There will be the very wealthy and peasants, but the Thai peasants will be better off than the Western peasants.

Thailand's future may not be great, but it will be better than many other countries. This political situation is irrelevant compared to the real problems coming up.

[andyww]

I looked at this thread expecting the usual "The Thai economy is a basket case" type of posts which generally appear on here. But not so!

Some very perceptive posts from people who, for a change, dont analyze the Thai economy by the number of customers in the Gogo bars..

The question is, can a country continue to have a healthy economy when it is based in manufacturing and production rather than innovation and ownership of intllectual property? I believe the answer is yes. China proves this but, as has been mentioned, China is starting to show cracks.

Thailand is extremely successful and innovative in the area of food production and export and this is a recession-proof business. The fact that Vietnam has overtaken Thailand in rice production is not greatly significant, rice is a low-margin crop anyway.

[Heng]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast?

They simply had more intelligent people with a better work ethic. The team that was more heavily loaded with slower and less able folks, it's bound to start cutting corners eventually to stay afloat. If you went back in time and gave Thailand the same % of Hokkien Chinese/Indian/and Malay populations, you'd have another Taiwan type country, or more specifically a really big badass Singapore.

[PattayaParent]

"Now we add the instable political situation. We thai people used to look down on Vietnam, Burma and China, but now it seems that they even out-compete us with rice.

What do you guys think will happen to Thailand?"

Well the one thing that all those countries you mention have in common is a stable government.

Maybe Thailand needs to go Communist or have a military government?

Edited July 26, 2010 by PattayaParent

[bendejo]

Well, currently there is a certain billionaire fugitive that would destroy the country in every possible sense for the sake of having his way. But apart from that...

A rise in xenophobia, especially in the northern part of the country. I can't say how this will affect the influx of potential expats or the Khao San/KPG party crowd, but I think anything short of the locals displaying the severed heads of foreigners will just have them all saying (in chorus) that these things happen everywhere. On the other hand if partying in Thailand goes out of fashion in Europe that would really make a dent. But then there is Asian tourism, and in 10 years high season could mean more Chinese tourists than Occidentals.

The corruption will not end any time soon. I don't see how the police force can be cleaned up, they can even be bought wholesale as was proven by their lack of action during the recent demonstrations. There is a culture of bullying and extortion that is not going away. Munitions being moved from military arsenals into the hands of terrorists is a bad sign. What can money NOT buy here?

Thailand's electronics industry has been, for the most part, assembly line manufacturing of appliances and components. Innovation has been limited to producing knock-offs of other peoples' creations. We'll have to see what becomes of the 'world economic squeeze.'

Could Thailand turn into Myanmar? I doubt it, as the love of money here is too great. However, I could see some politicians banging the drum for military build-up using threat by Myanmar as a pretense, and the gov't coffers are emptied into arms deals with US corporations (who, in turn, enrich the bank accounts of those who helped them).

I'm tempted to say it will be more like Malaysia in 20 years. In spite of that country's image as a multicultural wonderland rest assured that there is a religious-nationalist element there that is downright ugly, and corruption, cronyism and nepotism is still very much part of how things work. By luck, the rise of commodity prices in recent years (particularly rubber and palm oil) has dealt a blow to rural poverty.

[Gob]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast?

They simply had more intelligent people with a better work ethic. The team that was more heavily loaded with slower and less able folks, it's bound to start cutting corners eventually to stay afloat. If you went back in time and gave Thailand the same % of Hokkien Chinese/Indian/and Malay populations, you'd have another Taiwan type country, or more specifically a really big badass Singapore.

Not just plain old chinese but Hokkien chinese eh?

You wouldn't happen to be Hokkien chinese yourself ?

lol

I s'pose if we want to be all racialist about it , one would have to credit the success of Singapore to its Caucasian founders .

Ditto Hong Kong . Same same Macau .

[zzaa09]

Future. Reversion to old school Siam.

[Heng]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast?

They simply had more intelligent people with a better work ethic. The team that was more heavily loaded with slower and less able folks, it's bound to start cutting corners eventually to stay afloat. If you went back in time and gave Thailand the same % of Hokkien Chinese/Indian/and Malay populations, you'd have another Taiwan type country, or more specifically a really big badass Singapore.

Not just plain old chinese but Hokkien chinese eh?

You wouldn't happen to be Hokkien chinese yourself ?

lol

I s'pose if we want to be all racialist about it , one would have to credit the success of Singapore to its Caucasian founders .

Ditto Hong Kong . Same same Macau .

Nah, Teochiu Chinese, we're not nearly as industrious, but we do okay. In the business acumen scale I'd say it goes Hokkien/Fukien, Cantonese, Teochiu, Hainanese, Hakka, etc...

Nothing 'racialist' about it. People are different, plain and simple. Caucasian founders/management can be beneficial in some cases, just look at economic power houses like Burma, Congo, and Zimbabwe.

Edited August 1, 2010 by Heng

[Gob]

In 1948 Thailand and Singapore were both suffering from the effect of the war years. Look at how Singapore grew in the 1950's and 1960's. Compare the economy of Singapore now to the economy of Thailand today. Why did Singapore advance so fast?

They simply had more intelligent people with a better work ethic. The team that was more heavily loaded with slower and less able folks, it's bound to start cutting corners eventually to stay afloat. If you went back in time and gave Thailand the same % of Hokkien Chinese/Indian/and Malay populations, you'd have another Taiwan type country, or more specifically a really big badass Singapore.

Not just plain old chinese but Hokkien chinese eh?

You wouldn't happen to be Hokkien chinese yourself ?

lol

I s'pose if we want to be all racialist about it , one would have to credit the success of Singapore to its Caucasian founders .

Ditto Hong Kong . Same same Macau .

Nah, Teochiu Chinese, we're not nearly as industrious, but we do okay. In the business acumen scale I'd say it goes Hokkien/Fukien, Cantonese, Teochiu, Hainanese, Hakka, etc...

Nothing 'racialist' about it. People are different, plain and simple. Caucasian founders/management can be beneficial in some cases, just look at economic power houses like Burma, Congo, and Zimbabwe.

Teochiu eh ?

The issaanites of China.

People are different for sure . If you really believe that , then don't pigeon - hole according to their tribe .

But if you are going to do so , bear in mind that Caucasians and Jews are top of the league , and you mongoloids are just making up the numbers .

Welcome to the layer cake, son .

Edited August 1, 2010 by Gob