The Race To 20 Thb Per Dollar

[kokesaat]

"The baht was 25 to the dollar for many, many years"

Very true. And there were a lot less expats living in the country prior to '97. The floodgates opened in late 1998. If you're already here with a house, vehicle, furnishings, and some reasonable savings, you'll probably survive a drop to 25. But if you're considering moving over, a 3,000,000 Baht low-end investment for a house, vehicle, etc will cost you $95,000 and change today compared to $75,000 when the Baht was 40/1.

[Hakuchi]

make more money.  i'd never return to america.  place is a disaster now.  got out while i could and not returning - ever.

amen to that. nothing for me there.

trailer truck food and tacos for 20 baht sounds not good enough?

You should think more positive.

[Hakuchi]

You are mistaken when you think that people who get few dollars from abroad are the only ones with big money. And the Thai economy doesn't suffer from it. Some  foreigners on a retirement pension maybe, but that aren't the big players who boost an economy.

Yeah just put an advert for "Need HiSo Tenant to pay me the same rent that the last guy paid me before the Global Currency Crisis of 2011/12 and preceding Global Stock Market crash began. Great view! Building very quiet, only 25% occupancy rate!"

You invested in a bubble? Blame yourself. 

 You could start a taco business. The salary rates are much lower here, you can get get six Thai for the same rate you would have to pay a Mexican in Moscow, Idaho. And sell the tacos for a price five times more than almost everywhere in the USA.

You should think more positive.

[loong]

Just rent to people who have money and not at some poor pensioners from the USA. Problem solved. Don't think that the Thai economy depends on old lonely man from the West.

That is the same as telling any business that is struggling, "just get customers with more money - problem solved"

Most people who rent out condos, rent to tenants with more than average income for Thailand. if there are fewer foreigners that can afford the rents, there will be more empty condos. If the Thai economy suffers because of the stronger baht, there will be fewer people with income derived from within Thailand that can afford the rents. So more empty condos

You are mistaken when you think that people who get few dollars from abroad are the only ones with big money. And the Thai economy doesn't suffer from it. Some  foreigners on a retirement pension maybe, but that aren't the big players who boost an economy.

If you had read my post, you would have seen......"If the Thai economy suffers because of the stronger baht, there will be fewer people with income derived from within Thailand that can afford the rents. So more empty condos"

So where is it that I am mistaken?

As the Baht strengthens, income from exports, as well as tourism/expats reduce and it affects the whole economy. Businesses that have nothing to do with tourism or exports are struggling because many of their customers have to cut back.

As there has been little, if any, effort by successive governments to expand the domestic economy, the economy is almost exclusively export driven. A stronger Baht will affect every-one except the very rich.

Travelling around, I see many vacant properties even when the economy is doing very well. There can only be more vacant properties in a down-turn. That should be obvious to every-one.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

20 baht / $ would knock me out of the country right away.. for a serious shopping trip to the USA!

[tombkk]

Its no different than any where else in the world. You adjust.

For those who started here at 40ish to the baht we have already been adjusting. Most people will have their breaking point where Thailand just gets not worth it compared to other places. If 20 doesn't do it to you, how about 1 to 1? A bottle of green tea at 7-11, 20 dollars, how about that? Get the point?

My salary is in THB. That makes my income immune to exchange rates, very much like people in the US, paid in USD, or people in the eurozone, paid in EUR, don't care too much about the exchange rate.

My company, involved in international business, cares about the exchange rate though.

[WarpSpeed]

Bring it on!! Only deal in Thai B so buying up some dollars would be fantastic! Besides I think they'd adjust the requirements for retirees, They've already done that once recently when the economy changed directions they don't want to lose their golden geese..

[tombkk]

Yeah I can see how people who are totally baht-ized might like this trend.

Think again. Anyone with a business that mostly depends on tourists is just as unhappy about the strength of the baht as the rest of you.

As we were told during the anti-government protests earlier this year, tourism makes up only about 6% of the GDP.

The bulk of Thailand's business is connected to the exporting industry. This includes agriculture (rice, tapioca, rubber) as well as the automotive industry.

[jackr]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Doesn't work that way. If you left your 400 or 800k sitting there, it would suggest you are working/acquiring funds onsite and you'd possibly be denied extension next year.

[tombkk]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

You don't know why flying? You? I thought of all people you would understand why. Some of us don't like receiving next to nothing by holding a worthless bunch of paper. So instead, we buy gold. Then we sell gold 3 months before the visa comes due. Rinse and repeat. That way, we at least get 9 months of positive upside potential.

Unfortunately, some people make the mistake of thinking that foreign currencies like the USD are also a better store of value than THB. I think they are wrong, but different strokes for different folks I guess.

In any case, I never expect 20. At that level of pain, at least one Asean country will break away (my bet is Vietnam) and try and race the USD to the bottom in an attempt to save their export industries. Thailand will be forced to follow suit. I can't imagine the government allowing much below 25 - 27. Beyond that they will print and accept domestic inflation instead of job loss. It is politically more acceptable. I read one study 2 years ago where they predicted exports would fall by 50% if the Baht went to 29. Probably exaggerated to some degree, but it is obvious that when prices rise people in the US will learn to do without, and that will affect Thailand greatly.

However you look at it, the answer is that we all need to learn to live on alot less. Does it really matter to people on a fixed income in USD whether their income in Baht terms gets cut in half, or their expenses in Baht terms double?

The fact is, the credit bubble has popped, and we all need to accept that poverty will be the new norm for the forseeable future. The wealth that we thought we had for the last several decades was never real. It was an illusion caused by excessive credit. It's now time to learn that the 7 baht bus is just as effective as a 50 baht taxi in getting you from point A to point B, and that 43 baht you save may make the difference between eating and starving.

Forget about the exchange rate. Just accept that you will be poor tomorrow and stop trying to hold on to what you have today. Anyone considering retiring to Thailand today had better be doing it because they love the country and not because they think it is low cost living. That period of history is over.

Forget about the exchange rate? The rest of your post seems to say the opposite. Yes, it does matter whether the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is cut in half and I can buy only half of what I used to be able to buy for the same amount of dollars.

[JPPR2]

Statistically(as reported recently) over 78% of the people in the US have < $4200 USD in savings not set aside for bills and living, basically free to do with money. People live on revolving debt. Most have no retirement, IRA or pensions. Most people WERE hoping for the housing equity to be the nest egg, well that is gone as we all know. US people are pushed to live in debt and this is driven exclusively out of the perpetual need to live excessive or keep up with the Joneses. The Avg car payment in the US is $569 a month not counting insurance and other associated costs. I can live in TL comfortably for that. Personally I enjoy living compact and practical. Far more rewarding and stress free. The US clearly reaped what is sewed. I am a US citizen by birth and the US arrogance is astonishing. I saw it coming back in 2000......

I am Baht'ized as some have commented. I have a lonnnnnnnnng way to go before I have any pension/SS benefits eligible to me.

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

You don't know why flying? You? I thought of all people you would understand why. Some of us don't like receiving next to nothing by holding a worthless bunch of paper.

A lot of folks simply don't have even $25-30k USD in life savings. There's a thriving business providing bridge financing to foreigners who need to meet their visa requirements (often this business comes from Thais who also need bridge financing to make their foreign visa applications look more attractive).

[flying]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Doesn't work that way. If you left your 400 or 800k sitting there, it would suggest you are working/acquiring funds onsite and you'd possibly be denied extension next year.

Why would it suggest that? Why couldn't it be savings & income came from SS or Pensions? Or just a plain old retired person who has enough cash to live out their life?

Are you saying the meager interest it earns is considered income & thus your working?

Just curious

[elliss]

at 20 bht to the usd ,

will she still love me ??

maybe she look for a better farang ,

he take care she , more .

[Ulysses G.]

I am Baht'ized as some have commented. I have a lonnnnnnnnng way to go before I have any pension/SS benefits eligible to me.

Do not forget 1997.

[jackr]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Doesn't work that way. If you left your 400 or 800k sitting there, it would suggest you are working/acquiring funds onsite and you'd possibly be denied extension next year.

Why would it suggest that? Why couldn't it be savings & income came from SS or Pensions? Or just a plain old retired person who has enough cash to live out their life?

Are you saying the meager interest it earns is considered income & thus your working?

Just curious

No. You're missing the point. Yes, it can come from those sources, but the point is, you use it to live off. If the money sits there without being used to fund your life, it puts a red flag up to immigration. This is why they check your entire bank book when applying for extensions.

[Spee]

It's now time to learn that the 7 baht bus is just as effective as a 50 baht taxi in getting you from point A to point B, and that 43 baht you save may make the difference between eating and starving.

If spending or preserving 40-50 baht is a critical daily decision, I would say there are bigger fish to fry than sweating the exchange rate.

[Spee]

But if you're considering moving over, a 3,000,000 Baht low-end investment for a house, vehicle, etc will cost you $95,000 and change today compared to $75,000 when the Baht was 40/1.

Don't I know it! We built our home between 2004-2006 when the exchange rates were much more favorable. Paid in cash by the month as we built, so all bought and paid for. If we were shifted to the present, with exchange rates around 30/$1, I'm not sure we could do it. Or maybe we could only on a much smaller scale.

Switching gears, the dollar is in the toilet to be sure, with the euro and pound not far behind. But this is due entirely, absolutely, 1000-percent to ballooning growth in national governments and extorting the private sector with excessive taxation. The political winds are shifting quickly in the US, and there is likely chance that the leftists will lose one and perhaps both houses of Congress. Should this happen, followed shortly by slashing government spending and taxes, there would be a very rapid turn-around in the dollar's valuation.

For those who are thoroughly pissed off about the exchange rate, there is only one thing to do. Get politically active in your home country and throw out the bureaucrats whose ruinous economic policies are causing you to live life as they see fit and killing your ability to life your life as you see fit.

For the first time in its history, the US social security program is paying out more money that it has taken in. And this is the cash cow/Ponzi scheme that politicians have looted for decades to redistribute wealth through welfare programs. This is one of many reasons why the dollar is tanking, and probably closer to the root cause than the Fed printing money like it is going out of style.

[flying]

No. You're missing the point. Yes, it can come from those sources, but the point is, you use it to live off. If the money sits there without being used to fund your life, it puts a red flag up to immigration. This is why they check your entire bank book when applying for extensions.

Ah I see what your saying....

Like I said I only live in our LOS home a few months a year so never considered that.

Basically I always thought if i moved there on a retirement visa i would leave the visa requirement money in a separate account.

Not a daily needs working account as you suggest.

Of course I would also have such a daily needs account available that showed $$$ movement for immigration to see if they wanted.

Thanks for the clarification

Edited August 29, 2010 by flying

[edwinchester]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

Or try a plate of Phad Thai, khoa phad or phadkapow at $1.25

[JimGant]

followed shortly by slashing government spending and taxes, there would be a very rapid turn-around in the dollar's valuation.

Slashing taxes? It's the deficit, and the foreboding future of increased deficit, that's playing on the dollar. Without both lowering spending, and raising taxes (including FICA, to keep SS a pay-as-you-go system), we'll never get off this treadmill.

Supply-side economics is a fascinating theory. Too bad it doesn't work.

[Hans Brix]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

bad example to use as I would not buy those at any price. but no number would make me leave the country

[saraburioz]

AS my wife earns most our money, it's great the strong baht. May it fall below 25B to the $ which it was when I moved here.

[Thakkar]

But if you're considering moving over, a 3,000,000 Baht low-end investment for a house, vehicle, etc will cost you $95,000 and change today compared to $75,000 when the Baht was 40/1.

Don't I know it! We built our home between 2004-2006 when the exchange rates were much more favorable. Paid in cash by the month as we built, so all bought and paid for. If we were shifted to the present, with exchange rates around 30/$1, I'm not sure we could do it. Or maybe we could only on a much smaller scale.

Switching gears, the dollar is in the toilet to be sure, with the euro and pound not far behind. But this is due entirely, absolutely, 1000-percent to ballooning growth in national governments and extorting the private sector with excessive taxation. The political winds are shifting quickly in the US, and there is likely chance that the leftists will lose one and perhaps both houses of Congress. Should this happen, followed shortly by slashing government spending and taxes, there would be a very rapid turn-around in the dollar's valuation.

For those who are thoroughly pissed off about the exchange rate, there is only one thing to do. Get politically active in your home country and throw out the bureaucrats whose ruinous economic policies are causing you to live life as they see fit and killing your ability to life your life as you see fit.

For the first time in its history, the US social security program is paying out more money that it has taken in. And this is the cash cow/Ponzi scheme that politicians have looted for decades to redistribute wealth through welfare programs. This is one of many reasons why the dollar is tanking, and probably closer to the root cause than the Fed printing money like it is going out of style.

Tax cuts and deregulation were tried and led directly to the situation we're in now. And your solution is more of what didn't work?

[astral]

Checking the exchange rates today

http://baht.thaivisa.com/

There is a long way to go before this fantasy thread becomes reality.

[Chunky1]

AS my wife earns most our money, it's great the strong baht. May it fall below 25B to the $ which it was when I moved here.

Unless you are planning to repatriate those funds into dollars it doesn't help you, it more than likely harms you since the World's biggest customer is bankrupt.

[Thakkar]

AS my wife earns most our money, it's great the strong baht. May it fall below 25B to the $ which it was when I moved here.

Unless you are planning to repatriate those funds into dollars it doesn't help you, it more than likely harms you since the World's biggest customer is bankrupt.

Exactly. Nobody's safe from a U.S. collapse.

[Hakuchi]

AS my wife earns most our money, it's great the strong baht. May it fall below 25B to the $ which it was when I moved here.

Unless you are planning to repatriate those funds into dollars it doesn't help you, it more than likely harms you since the World's biggest customer is bankrupt.

???

Who cares? Some grandpas will not be able to play daddy super rich in a Thailand because of the wealth gap. That gap becomes smaller, that is all. That doesn't mean everybody and the whole world is doomed. The Americans will not become extinct, plenty tacos available for one dollar and the Mexican will still make a living with Taco truck delivery to the trailer parks.

[jdinasia]

But if you're considering moving over, a 3,000,000 Baht low-end investment for a house, vehicle, etc will cost you $95,000 and change today compared to $75,000 when the Baht was 40/1.

Don't I know it! We built our home between 2004-2006 when the exchange rates were much more favorable. Paid in cash by the month as we built, so all bought and paid for. If we were shifted to the present, with exchange rates around 30/$1, I'm not sure we could do it. Or maybe we could only on a much smaller scale.

Switching gears, the dollar is in the toilet to be sure, with the euro and pound not far behind. But this is due entirely, absolutely, 1000-percent to ballooning growth in national governments and extorting the private sector with excessive taxation. The political winds are shifting quickly in the US, and there is likely chance that the leftists will lose one and perhaps both houses of Congress. Should this happen, followed shortly by slashing government spending and taxes, there would be a very rapid turn-around in the dollar's valuation.

For those who are thoroughly pissed off about the exchange rate, there is only one thing to do. Get politically active in your home country and throw out the bureaucrats whose ruinous economic policies are causing you to live life as they see fit and killing your ability to life your life as you see fit.

For the first time in its history, the US social security program is paying out more money that it has taken in. And this is the cash cow/Ponzi scheme that politicians have looted for decades to redistribute wealth through welfare programs. This is one of many reasons why the dollar is tanking, and probably closer to the root cause than the Fed printing money like it is going out of style.

Tax cuts and deregulation were tried and led directly to the situation we're in now. And your solution is more of what didn't work?

Exactly! Reaganomics was a failure. I think some people fall in for the scare tactics of the talk-radio mentality (and that of FOX -- one and the same!)

I am fast becoming an old white man (46) ... they type that talk radio/FOX panders to, thankfully I have never been that gullible. Perhaps if a few new wars are started we can spend our way further into debt but make those folks happy! After all ... trillions spent on Iraq after all the lies certainly helped the US get into the situation it is in now ... perhaps more of the same will get us out!

What exchange rate would get me to leave? Since I am paid in THB the current trend isn't exactly hurting me

[Englander]

AS my wife earns most our money, it's great the strong baht. May it fall below 25B to the $ which it was when I moved here.

Unless you are planning to repatriate those funds into dollars it doesn't help you, it more than likely harms you since the World's biggest customer is bankrupt.

The European Union is a slightly larger market then the US, (though i am anti EU and am waiting for the Euro in its present form to fail causing the collapse of this fascist regime), i was just pointing out a fact.

PS Just because Fox news is some bizarre news corporation very often full of nonsense, doesnt mean theyre wrong with their desire for less taxation and smaller govt, on this one In my very educated opinion theyre bang on the button (or do you intelligent non fox news watchers go for the skim the surface extreme left BBC/CNN take on things?), its just a pity FOX have only came up with this obsessive attack on govt spending line at least 10 years too late. (ie after GWB the socialist spent all the nations money on unaffordable wars, banks and pension schemes etc..!)

[Englander]

But if you're considering moving over, a 3,000,000 Baht low-end investment for a house, vehicle, etc will cost you $95,000 and change today compared to $75,000 when the Baht was 40/1.

.

Tax cuts and deregulation were tried and led directly to the situation we're in now. And your solution is more of what didn't work?

Exactly! Reaganomics was a failure. I think some people fall in for the scare tactics of the talk-radio mentality (and that of FOX -- one and the same!)

But Reagonomics involved spending money they havent got, the Dems/Reps as the LIB/LAB/Cons in the UK are all one side of the same coin, theyre not capitalist theyre just interested in doing whatever necessary to stay in power.

Besides i believe i am right in thinking it was Clintons deregulation of the banking system that led to the current financial mess we're in and Obama rewarded his advisers by giving them all jobs!

Edited August 29, 2010 by Englander