Thailand May Be Hotter By 4 Degrees In Next 3 Decades

[webfact]

GLOBAL WARMING

Thailand may be hotter by 4 degrees in next 3 decades

By Janjira Pongrai

The Nation

A chedi containing the ashes and remains of the ancestors of locals

in Tambon Rangnok in Phichits Sam Ngam district is reflected in

a flooded rice field yesterday evening.

In the next 35 years, the temperature in Thailand will rise by 4 degrees Celsius, which will result in the eastern provinces getting inundated in 300 millimetres of rainfall every year, an expert said yesterday.

The Southeast Asia START Regional Research Centre's director Arnon Sanidwong na Ayudhaya was speaking at an academic conference held by the Office of the Higher Education Commission yesterday.

His analysis was based on eight climate prediction models over the next 35-55 years.

The models, dividing Thailand into eight geological and geographic zones and looking into factors including temperature, rainfall and sea-level changes, found that in the next 35 years the country's average temperature would rise by 3-4 degrees, particularly in the mountainous areas of the North.

The temperatures would rise in the rainy season and winter months, thus further narrowing the difference between summer and winter times, he said.

Climate change also functions as a reinforcing factor for the severe urban heat island phenomenon, in which a metropolitan area is significantly warmer than its surroundings at all times, he said. The rise in temperature would affect people's metabolic systems and cause deaths. The models also showed that sea levels would rise by 14-15 centimetres, affecting the coastal areas from Bangkok to Rayong and Phetchaburi all the way to Narathiwat, he said.

Levels of rainfall would also be different from one place to another. For example, the Northeast and the West could have about 70-100mm of rain, while the East might end up with 300mm, leading to severe flooding.

Citing various countries' climate models, Arnon pointed out that by the year 2100, the number of severe floods would rise and occur three to six times in every 100 years compared with the previous frequency of one such flood in a century. Since Thailand is sensitive to floods and landslides, he said settlements on riverbanks and coastal areas should be reviewed because these areas face a severe risk of flooding in the future. If nothing is done to prevent this, the country will suffer economic and social losses, he said.

Since many governments are seeking help from environment experts, he said this year's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be more in line with facts.

Chaowalit Silpathong, director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, said Thailand would be affected by global warming in the form of flooding. Citing satellite photos from 2005 until now that showed more frequent flooding, usually in the same locations, he said, Thailand's sea levels rose by 2.8-4.3cm, much higher than the world's average rate of 1.8cm per year.

In related news, homes and schools along the Chao Phya River in Pathum Thani's Sam Khok district yesterday had to be emptied and blocked off with sandbags as the level of the river rose continuously because of upstream run-offs.

Meanwhile 60 homes in low-lying Tambon Phong Pheng of Angthong's Pa Moke district were inundated, prompting the local administrative organisation to provide sandbags so villagers could set up barriers to prevent further flooding.

-- The Nation 2010-09-09

[canuckamuck]

:cheesy: :cheesy:

[canuckamuck]

Chaowalit Silpathong, director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, said Thailand would be affected by global warming in the form of flooding. Citing satellite photos from 2005 until now that showed more frequent flooding, usually in the same locations, he said, Thailand's sea levels rose by 2.8-4.3cm, much higher than the world's average rate of 1.8cm per year.

There is so much wrong with this it is hard to know where to start, even the scammers at IPCC wold be embarrassed by this.

This should be in the joke section.

[Thaddeus]

And now begins yet another "oh no it isn't" / "Oh yes it is" thread on climate change.

On your marks ......

[RickBradford]

Arnon Sanidwong na Ayudhaya is doing exactly the right thing -- scream "global warming catastrophe" and wait for the foolish and gullible West to cough up a lot of 'global warming mitigation' funds; I hope Thailand gets billions and puts it to good use building schools, hospitals and so on.

Western governments have persuaded themselves that global catastrophe is imminent if we don't drastically cut global CO2 emissions. China and India in particular don't buy that at all and have no intention of cutting emissions, meaning that global emissions will go on steadily increasing.

While Western leaders wring their hands and put up windmills all over the place, the developing world is going to grow its economy exactly as it pleases, and if the laughing stock which is the West wants to hand out tens of billions of dollars of free money, that's just a bonus.

As Elizabeth Taylor said: "If someone is stupid enough to offer me a million dollars [to act in a film], then I'm certainly not stupid enough to turn it down."

A great opportunity for Thailand.

[teatree]

Very easy to make predictions about what is going to happen 30-55 years from now because you are not going to be proved wrong or otherwise until your prediction is long forgotten.

The key sentence is "His analysis was based on eight climate prediction models...". These models are notoriously inaccurate and have failed to predict anything accurately so far.

We can't even predict the weather 30 days from now so how can we predict what the climate will be like in 30 years?

Tax and control guys, tax and control.

[naiharn]

Leaving aside the sensationalist prediction of massive temperature rises (predictions that will be forgotten long before they can be checked), some of the rainfall predictions are highly puzzling:

Levels of rainfall would also be different from one place to another. For example, the Northeast and the West could have about 70-100mm of rain, while the East might end up with 300mm, leading to severe flooding.

What?

The east of Thailand already gets about 1600mm of rain per year. 300mm per year would be a severe drought!

70 or 100mm of rain per year would be a desert.

Perhaps they mean 300mm EXTRA per year, but the article doesn't say that.

Pathetic reporting, as usual.

[canuckamuck]

Eventually Thailand will have the highest sea levels in the world, which will make it difficult for foreign ships to make it into port. However they will be able travel away from Thailand at record speed.

[Pib]

We can't even accurately predict weather a week out; predicting global climate change decades down the road with any high degree of accuracy is even harder.

Now, don't get me wrong, I don't need any further convincing that the weather is getting warmer as I've seen it getting warmer over my lifetime to date. For some parts of the world I lived in, it seems the warmer climate has made the environment/temperature/humidity more comfortable with no negative impacts on a year-round basis. But, no doubt, the oceans are rising and low lying cities on the coast, like Bangkok, will have challenges in the decades to come.

[tig28]

Eventually Thailand will have the highest sea levels in the world, which will make it difficult for foreign ships to make it into port. However they will be able travel away from Thailand at record speed.

Nice one. :cheesy:

[Pib]

Eventually Thailand will have the highest sea levels in the world, which will make it difficult for foreign ships to make it into port. However they will be able travel away from Thailand at record speed.

Nice one. :cheesy:

Sounds like it will be an uphill float to Bangkok which means a downhill float from Bangkok.

[rubl]

The raise in temperature predicted may be aggravated by the continuous emissions of hot air by local politicians

[sangfroid]

Christ almighty they can't accurately predict what the weather will be like at the weekend.

I remember in the 70's the science world was predicting the coming of a new Ice Age by the end of the century. 75 % of the population was going to perish and the survivors were going to have to adapt to living under metres of ice..

http://www.appinsys....es/image002.jpg

Computer models...... Garbage in Garbage out

Edited September 9, 2010 by sangfroid

[stevehaigh]

i double checked my calendar and i'm sure its not April 1st!

anyhow, i hope i am not around to see 4 degrees hotter than it is now, too freekin' hot already

[stub]

Weather is not Climate. A snow fall does not mean an ice age and a sunny day does not mean global warming, no matter what the tabloid press tells you. Climate models are utterly uninterested in if it rains on Tuesday or Thursday. They are interested in how much it will rain in that decade. The difference is similar to trying to predict the actions of an individual vs. the actions of a crowd.

Not that I'm claiming the models used or START Regional Research Centre's conclusions are correct - the predicted sea level rise seems extreme compared to other conclusions. Hope they are not right.

[neverdie]

Eventually Thailand will have the highest sea levels in the world, which will make it difficult for foreign ships to make it into port. However they will be able travel away from Thailand at record speed.

Thanks for the laugh, however, I just don't understand why you can't believe that Thailands Oceans arnt higher than the rest of the worlds - haven't you seen the waterfalls where the oceans connect?

[teatree]

Weather is not Climate. A snow fall does not mean an ice age and a sunny day does not mean global warming, no matter what the tabloid press tells you. Climate models are utterly uninterested in if it rains on Tuesday or Thursday. They are interested in how much it will rain in that decade. The difference is similar to trying to predict the actions of an individual vs. the actions of a crowd.

Not that I'm claiming the models used or START Regional Research Centre's conclusions are correct - the predicted sea level rise seems extreme compared to other conclusions. Hope they are not right.

Yes, of course there is a difference between climate and weather.

One of the key differences is that it is infinitely more difficult to predict how the climate will be in 50 years from now than how the weather will be next Tuesday.

With weather we can see an area of high pressure moving in, for example, and can make a reasonable prediction that the temperature will go up for a few days. Or we can see a cold front that is likely to move across and bring rain. Etc etc etc. We can see weather patterns and make reasonable guesses as to where they may go and what the outcome will be.

With climate on the other hand the variables are vastly more complex and are totally beyond us at this moment. Will it get hotter or cooler over the next 50 years? Nobody knows, no matter what the tabloids may tell you.

[fxe1200]

Eventually Thailand will have the highest sea levels in the world, which will make it difficult for foreign ships to make it into port. However they will be able travel away from Thailand at record speed.

It even can get much more interesting during the full moon parties, when the moon sucks up zillions of tons of water and creates the super high spring tide by building up a mountain of water in the Gulf. Probably a good opportunity for the experienced surfer to swing right thru and make it to Malysia in record time. Amazing Thailand.

[puipuitom]

[

The east of Thailand already gets about 1600mm of rain per year. 300mm per year would be a severe drought!

70 or 100mm of rain per year would be a desert.

Perhaps they mean 300mm EXTRA per year, but the article doesn't say that.

Not the first time the Thais do noit have any feeling for magnitude.

- Total load of a container: 1500 kg or 10,500 or 15,200 or 21,200 kg.. despite the only product they sell, theri export manager has NO IDEA. In July at Bumrungrad: O.K. I am not slim, but.. 258 = 258 kg and not in pds ? The nurse had NO IDEA. Oh 101 kg.. THAT might be.

Whatever.. Thailand has to live from its agriculture. Many crops this season fell back seen temp. rise, see report Thai Food Processors of 6 June this year.

Especially rice. +3 C will mean: not 2-3 crops, but .. only ONE. Thailand will be an importing contry, but.. from where ??

Philippines is expected to grow from 70 mln inhabitants to 140 mln. Where all the food has to come from ?

Then.. all people will curse their leaders, and bless the Chinese with their one child per family" politics.

[Artabus]

What is it about people that they feel they have to continue denying the realities of climate change?

The fact is, the models have consistently underplayed the changes to date - not overestimated them.

The fact is, there is already evidence of long term change. In a multitude of areas.

The fact is, the vast majority of the world's scientists agree on Human Induced Climate Change.

The fact is, the media (tabloid or otherwise) portray anti-climate change articles at a greater percentage than do scientific articles.

But of course, here on TV we have people with greater scientific knowledge than the scientists. Ignorance is not bliss. If you don't care for yourselves, think about the implications for your children and their children.

I shall now wait for the flaming, and "evidence" of corruption, mutterings about hockey shape graphs, units in East Anglia, misprints in IPCC publications etc etc.

[sirchai]

The raise in temperature predicted may be aggravated by the continuous emissions of hot air by local politicians

Not only by hot air from local politicians, also from foreign red shirt supporters without brain.

[sirchai]

[

The east of Thailand already gets about 1600mm of rain per year. 300mm per year would be a severe drought!

70 or 100mm of rain per year would be a desert.

Perhaps they mean 300mm EXTRA per year, but the article doesn't say that.

Not the first time the Thais do noit have any feeling for magnitude.

- Total load of a container: 1500 kg or 10,500 or 15,200 or 21,200 kg.. despite the only product they sell, theri export manager has NO IDEA. In July at Bumrungrad: O.K. I am not slim, but.. 258 = 258 kg and not in pds ? The nurse had NO IDEA. Oh 101 kg.. THAT might be.

Whatever.. Thailand has to live from its agriculture. Many crops this season fell back seen temp. rise, see report Thai Food Processors of 6 June this year.

Especially rice. +3 C will mean: not 2-3 crops, but .. only ONE. Thailand will be an importing contry, but.. from where ??

Philippines is expected to grow from 70 mln inhabitants to 140 mln. Where all the food has to come from ?

Then.. all people will curse their leaders, and bless the Chinese with their one child per family" politics.

i wont sell my rice to you.

[Jingthing]

What is it about people that they feel they have to continue denying the realities of climate change?

They reflect a strong impulse in our species to self destruct.

Next ...

[stub]

One of the key differences is that it is infinitely more difficult to predict how the climate will be in 50 years from now than how the weather will be next Tuesday.

With weather we can see an area of high pressure moving in, for example, and can make a reasonable prediction that the temperature will go up for a few days. Or we can see a cold front that is likely to move across and bring rain. Etc etc etc. We can see weather patterns and make reasonable guesses as to where they may go and what the outcome will be.

With climate on the other hand the variables are vastly more complex and are totally beyond us at this moment. Will it get hotter or cooler over the next 50 years? Nobody knows, no matter what the tabloids may tell you.

I certainly wouldn't say 'infinitely' more difficult. They are just very different. Yet many of the above posters use the terms interchangeably. One involves looking at things like high pressure systems, the other is pouring over statistics and developing models that match the facts and using these models to extrapolate.

The tabloids are the ones saying nobody knows btw., as it sells more papers to put up articles from some fringe dweller with a book to sell. Always fun when people start posting links about AGW, citing newspapers better known for their page 3 girls. The anti warming propaganda machines long ago stopped saying it isn't happening and moved on to 'we don't know if it will happen' or 'its happening and there is nothing we can do about it'.

[canuckamuck]

What is it about people that they feel they have to continue denying the realities of climate change?

The fact is, the models have consistently underplayed the changes to date - not overestimated them.

The fact is, there is already evidence of long term change. In a multitude of areas.

The fact is, the vast majority of the world's scientists agree on Human Induced Climate Change.

The fact is, the media (tabloid or otherwise) portray anti-climate change articles at a greater percentage than do scientific articles.

But of course, here on TV we have people with greater scientific knowledge than the scientists. Ignorance is not bliss. If you don't care for yourselves, think about the implications for your children and their children.

I shall now wait for the flaming, and "evidence" of corruption, mutterings about hockey shape graphs, units in East Anglia, misprints in IPCC publications etc etc.

Actually we were mocking this particular article which is full of absurd conclusions.

But I guess you will stand by it because it represents your opinion as well. And it doesn't need to be factual as long as it is ideologically sound, right?

I believe in climate change, and I don't think we are able to keep it from happening. If the climate had stopped changing I would be very impressed because I don't think man can keep nature in check. We never changed the climate in the first place

The real question is why the obsession with beneficial C02, instead of all the proven toxin's?

The answer lies in the fact that if you can tax C02 you can tax every activity on the planet.

And currently it has become cool to be anti human too.

Edited September 9, 2010 by canuckamuck

[RickBradford]

What is it about people that they feel they have to continue denying the realities of climate change?

I really don't know.

Almost everyone with basic scientific knowledge accepts that the climate always changes -- we have had ice ages, a Roman Warm Period (togas in Scotland, anyone?), a Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and so on.

Only gullible dimwits like Al Gore reject natural climate change in favour of this silly notion of 'man-made global warming', which states definitively that: more CO2 in the atmosphere = higher temperatures. Like turning a thermostat.

We continue to pour CO2 into the atmosphere, yet global temperatures since 1995 have shown no rise, invalidating the 'man-made global warming' theory at a stroke.

But the Warmies continue to deny natural climate change. Baffling.

Still, a great opportunity for Thailand to benefit from the West's foolish political obsession with 'man-made global warming'

[asiawatcher]

"... Since many governments are seeking help from environment experts, he said this year's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be more in line with facts."

Says it all. Another opportunist listening to assumptions and looking for financial gains. If the temperature rose by that amount Bangkok would not exist. So let's all move out now. (sigh)...

[SomTumTiger]

Oh good - another climate change thread.

[sangfroid]

What is it about people that they feel they have to continue denying the realities of climate change?

The fact is, the models have consistently underplayed the changes to date - not overestimated them.

The fact is, there is already evidence of long term change. In a multitude of areas.

The fact is, the vast majority of the world's scientists agree on Human Induced Climate Change.

The fact is, the media (tabloid or otherwise) portray anti-climate change articles at a greater percentage than do scientific articles.

But of course, here on TV we have people with greater scientific knowledge than the scientists. Ignorance is not bliss. If you don't care for yourselves, think about the implications for your children and their children.

I shall now wait for the flaming, and "evidence" of corruption, mutterings about hockey shape graphs, units in East Anglia, misprints in IPCC publications etc etc.

No, no flaming. Just one simple question. Tell me what caused the last Ice Age to thaw out and what part did man play in that event???

[sangfroid]

"... Since many governments are seeking help from environment experts, he said this year's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be more in line with facts."

Says it all. Another opportunist listening to assumptions and looking for financial gains. If the temperature rose by that amount Bangkok would not exist. So let's all move out now. (sigh)...

The bigger the scare the bigger the government grants!