Pheu Thai - Confusion, Conspiracy Theory, And Back To Square One

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME

Confusion, conspiracy theory, and back to Square One

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Finally, Yongyuth Wichaidit has returned to a place where nobody really belongs. The Pheu Thai Party's helm seems to have been cursed so that only people like him - who can sit through meetings they chair without saying a word - can take it, without really taking it.

If that sounds confusing, you're in good company. Everyone knows Thaksin Shinawatra is calling the shots, but other than that, it has to be pure guesswork. What happened yesterday at the opposition party's headquarters underlined as much. And when a deputy party leader admitted he needed aspirin after trying to figure out what was going on, who are we to claim to know better?

Here's a recap on what's happened on the surface:

Just a few days after Plodprasop Suraswadi, the aspirin guy, announced what he described as Pheu Thai's reconciliation roadmap, Thaksin re-emerged on Twitter and phone-ins. His and Plodprasop's messages were strikingly similar, especially in what looked like unequivocal declarations of loyalty to the monarchy. Around the same time, Yongyuth called a press conference to announce, with red eyes and in a choked voice, that he was quitting.

Then late last week a small group of Pheu Thai MPs met Thaksin in Russia. They came back to play pom-pom girls for Yongyuth and dismiss hot-favourite candidate Kowit Wattana's chances of becoming new party leader. Ex-police chief Kowit subsequently realised it wasn't worth it and bailed out at the last minute. The party yesterday swung back and forth over whether to postpone the leadership election, until voting did take place in the late afternoon, with Yongyuth the only nominee.

Those developments constituted the first layer, laid out before the Thai public. The second layer was seen by a limited few.

Despite the overwhelming vote endorsing Yongyuth's re-election - 267 against four abstentions and two invalid ballots - the party's northeastern wing, or at least some members of the faction, tried hard to block his return. They portrayed Yongyuth as unfit for the job in a crucial period, and attempted to get the vote postponed.

The third layer had to do with why Yongyuth resigned, why Kowit's name came up, and why Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Chalerm Yoobamrung weren't in contention, at least publicly. Certainly, there must have been miscommunication somewhere, but between who? Does the apparent farce of the past few days indicate that while Thaksin remains the puppet master, some strings may have been broken?

Initially, it had been claimed Yongyuth was told by Thaksin to resign. If that claim is true, whether it was a direct message or whether it was "conveyed" through someone remains a mystery. More mysterious would be why Thaksin went to the trouble of asking Yongyuth to quit, only to have the party bring him back to its helm less than a week later.

One possible explanation was Thaksin had lost touch and was relying on information fed from left, right and centre of the badly split party. It may have been that, at first, the anti-Yongyuth elements managed to get his ear, only for the pro-Yongyuth camp to fight back successfully.

Whether it was Thaksin's own initiative or somebody else's, the troubling question was why anybody would want to get rid of a man like Yongyuth. If his resignation was to facilitate reconciliation, as claimed initially, Kowit would have been a far more controversial figure. Even as Thailand went through its most turbulent period politically earlier this year, Yongyuth managed to keep out of the news - a remarkable feat in its own right.

Certain sources claimed Thaksin was now serious about peace, so much so that his attitude worried red-shirt hardliners and some MPs who depend on red support in their constituencies. But if removing Yongyuth, undoubtedly a peaceful figure in the party, was somehow aimed at serving Thaksin's reconciliation agenda, the de facto leader was obviously putting the cart before the horse there.

Or maybe it has nothing to do with reconciliation. Perhaps Thaksin just wanted to reorganise the party with the dissolution of the Democrats in mind. If Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and other Democrat executives are wiped out from politics by the court, Pheu Thai will be in a position to stake a claim for power, a reverse scenario from late 2008.

This is not "chaos theory", but seemingly a theory that led to chaos. It explains why all hell broke loose once Yongyuth stepped down. The shy, unassuming leader was no threat, but when an outsider like Kowit was poised to take the helm, it was different. Every Pheu Thai veteran wants to be prime minister once in their life, or again in Chavalit's case. Yongyuth's presence keeps the playing field level, but Kowit's would not.

Or could it just be a simple case of Yongyuth getting fed up but having been begged to stay? With all the conspiracy theories swirling around us, maybe for once we were witnessing a man who had decided what he needed to do? If so, why did he come back? Why did he come back to the place he always said he wanted to leave?

The ultimate question, however, is a bit of paradox. Does the Pheu Thai turmoil demonstrate what can happen if a political party is attached too much to one man, or is it warning him what will happen if he does plan to leave?

-- The Nation 2010-09-15

Related topic:

[Buchholz]

Confusion, conspiracy theory, and back to Square One

yep, back to square one

[brahmburgers]

It would be fun to just sit back and watch the train of fools shoot themselves in their feet.

However, the sobering reality is, they're pulling a lot of resources and money from the Thai people in the form of salaries, percs, government services.

Here are some of the gov't services and resources they suck from the Thai people:

>>> police escorts when they drive or are driven down a street

>>> VIP services, limousines, VIP and free flights from Thai Airways

>>> Overseas trips for themselves and family, often to visit their puppetmaster

>>> Tens of thousands of hours of gov't salaried legal experts, whether they choose to use them or not, because nearly everything they do entails legal ramifications

It's also not funny that no Pueu Thai members nor their puppetmaster are doing one iota of good for Thailand or the Thai people (other than bigwigs who score fat non-bid contracts for municipal projects). They're like bloated bloodsuckers on Thailand's skin.

[SomTumTiger]

Just a bunch of monkeys, sitting in a cage, throwing their poo at each other.

[Robby nz]

Despite the overwhelming vote endorsing Yongyuth's re-election - 267 against four abstentions and two invalid ballots

Two invalid ballots.

Does that mean that two of them dont even know how to vote properly?

[brahmburgers]

Despite the overwhelming vote endorsing Yongyuth's re-election - 267 against four abstentions and two invalid ballots

Two invalid ballots.

Does that mean that two of them dont even know how to vote properly?

Talk about voting in a block. Not one original thinker in the whole bandwagon. If any of them ever had a non-selfish or original thought, he/she would probably have an aneurysm on the spot.

[whybother]

Despite the overwhelming vote endorsing Yongyuth's re-election - 267 against four abstentions and two invalid ballots

Two invalid ballots.

Does that mean that two of them dont even know how to vote properly?

Talk about voting in a block. Not one original thinker in the whole bandwagon. If any of them ever had a non-selfish or original thought, he/she would probably have an aneurysm on the spot.

How many were nominated?

Does it mean that some of them didn't even vote for the people they nominated? Or are they the ones that abstained?

Maybe the invalid votes are the ones that went against orders and voted for someone else.

[hyperdimension]

Two invalid ballots.

Does that mean that two of them dont even know how to vote properly?

Talk about voting in a block. Not one original thinker in the whole bandwagon. If any of them ever had a non-selfish or original thought, he/she would probably have an aneurysm on the spot.

How many were nominated?

Does it mean that some of them didn't even vote for the people they nominated? Or are they the ones that abstained?

Maybe the invalid votes are the ones that went against orders and voted for someone else.

There was only one nominee. The original article at the beginning of this thread says:

until voting did take place in the late afternoon, with Yongyuth the only nominee.

The 2 invalid ballots may be by people who either did not know how to vote or intentionally voted incorrectly so as not to provide support for the only nominee.

[hammered]

Well that avoided the party splitting but left BJT in a stronger position in the Isaan albeit without a few MPs who havent walked or havenet walked yet. The Isaan PTP MPs know they need effective leadership and good organization to minimize the number of seats lost to BJT in the region, and BJTs amnesty announcement is aimed directly at ex-TRT/PPP politicos and their supporters. Interesting games and for once Thaksin seems to be struggling but then again Newin isnt an easy battle. Thaksins conundrum is that he cant change leader withotu ripping the party apart which means a lost election and without a leadership change the party will likely lose too many seats to BJT to be able to form a government.

As Chavalit said yeaterday unless they can form a one party government they are finished, and their ability to do that is really open to question. Guess who he dreams of leading it?

[otherstuff1957]

It would be ironic (but not unlikely) if Yongyuth ended up a PM!

[whybother]

It would be ironic (but not unlikely) if Yongyuth ended up a PM!

That won't happen. They've already said that they will select the PM after they win the election ... which IMHO, won't happen anyway.

[HarrydePotter]

>Does the Pheu Thai turmoil demonstrate what can happen if a political party is attached too much to one man, or is it warning him what will happen if he does plan to leave?

----

That doesn't only count for a party but also for countries ..... imho

Edited September 15, 2010 by HarrydePotter

[Insight]

Despite the overwhelming vote endorsing Yongyuth's re-election - 267 against four abstentions and two invalid ballots

Two invalid ballots.

Does that mean that two of them dont even know how to vote properly?

Talk about voting in a block. Not one original thinker in the whole bandwagon. If any of them ever had a non-selfish or original thought, he/she would probably have an aneurysm on the spot.

Democracy according to Phua Thai: Do what *he* tells you.

[letitbe]

Thai politics confuses me and most Thais I know don’t seem to understand. Can anyone explain the following

Who are political parties and how many MP’s does each party have

Who are main politicians in each party

Who/what is Newins faction/role in all this

Basic details of thai politics , not the history ive witnessed that over last 15 years

[Pi Sek]

Thai politics confuses me and most Thais I know don’t seem to understand. Can anyone explain the following

Who are political parties and how many MP’s does each party have

GOVT COALITION (278 seats):

Democrat party: 172 seats

Bhum Jai Thai party: 32 seats

Peua Pandin party: 32 seats

Chart Thai Pattana party: 25 seats

Ruam Jai Thai party: 9 seats

Phak Kitsangkom party: 5 seats

Phak Matubhum party: occupies 3 seats

OPPOSITION (197 seats):

Peua Thai: 189 seats

Pracha Raj party: 8 seats

Who are main politicians in each party

- "Politicians" is a bit of an exaggeration

A bit hard to go into in a short answer so I'll let you find out yourself...

Who/what is Newins faction/role in all this

- Newin Chidchob is a banned politician, but calls the shots for the governing coalition's second largest party, Bhum Jai Thai.

Basic details of thai politics , not the history ive witnessed that over last 15 years

Thai politics has seen many parties formed and disbanded over 80 years - so it's hard to summarise. Basic details are that there have been a phenomenal amount of coups and totally self-serving corrupt governments for as long as the history books go. Most Thais don't believe the government serves any function which is why a lot of people supported Thaksin... he gave them money each election day, even if his policies actually ended up making them poorer in the long-term. Coalition parties can and typically do go with the highest bidder, which is why everyone is so cautious when dealing with the likes of Newin.

[Lost in LOS]

saw this in the newspaper today. by Mor, I hope its okay to post. delete if necessary

I thought it really spelled out whats going one, brilliant

Edited September 15, 2010 by Lost in LOS

[Buchholz]

BJTs amnesty announcement is aimed directly at ex-TRT/PPP politicos

Interesting to read of the people and groups opposed to BJT's amnesty proposal.

Against

PM Abhisit

DPM Suthep

UDD Leader/PTP pitbull Jatuporn

PAD

Can't think of too many issues that those people are all in agreement.

[brahmburgers]

Thai politics confuses me and most Thais I know don’t seem to understand. Can anyone explain the following

Who are political parties and how many MP’s does each party have

Who are main politicians in each party

Who/what is Newins faction/role in all this

Basic details of thai politics , not the history ive witnessed that over last 15 years

I also don't know much detail, but the overall sense I get of Thai politics is basically:

>>> Do as you're told, so we can all make as much money as possible.

>>> If you're not affiliated with a party, you don't have any hope of running for office

>>> If you're not connected to rich people / rich patrons, forget about running for office

>>> a few people at the head of each party decide who runs for office. It has little to do with the rest of the party members and even less to do with the voters

>>> Don't rock the boat, don't think creatively

>>> Don't concern yourself with environmental stuff, unless it's nice sounding words to please the public. All that matters is making as much money as possible. All else is window dressing.

>>> If you're banned from politicking, simply appoint your son or daughter to your former position. No matter if they have zero experience at the job. All is appearances. Substance is for woosies.

[hammered]

BJTs amnesty announcement is aimed directly at ex-TRT/PPP politicos

Interesting to read of the people and groups opposed to BJT's amnesty proposal.

Against

PM Abhisit

DPM Suthep

UDD Leader/PTP pitbull Jatuporn

PAD

Can't think of too many issues that those people are all in agreement.

Dems dont want to see BJT too big. Jatuporn is a defo sacrifce with the key thrown away if this plan comes off. PAD dont just dislike reds and PTP with a vengeance but dont have anytime for BJT either and have frequently stated in a rather paranoid manner that BJT are really still doing Thaksin's work, so yep we have a rather bizarre agreement across the spectrum

[Buchholz]

BJTs amnesty announcement is aimed directly at ex-TRT/PPP politicos

Interesting to read of the people and groups opposed to BJT's amnesty proposal.

Against

PM Abhisit

DPM Suthep

UDD Leader/PTP pitbull Jatuporn

PAD

Can't think of too many issues that those people are all in agreement.

Dems dont want to see BJT too big. Jatuporn is a defo sacrifce with the key thrown away if this plan comes off. PAD dont just dislike reds and PTP with a vengeance but dont have anytime for BJT either and have frequently stated in a rather paranoid manner that BJT are really still doing Thaksin's work, so yep we have a rather bizarre agreement across the spectrum

It's gratifying personally to see such a unified front against the amnesty proposal as it reflects my own opinion.

Although our motivations are rooted in completely different reasons, the amnesty opposition is the only thing I can recall being in agreement with Jatuporn over.

[asiawatcher]

It would be fun to just sit back and watch the train of fools shoot themselves in their feet.

However, the sobering reality is, they're pulling a lot of resources and money from the Thai people in the form of salaries, percs, government services.

Here are some of the gov't services and resources they suck from the Thai people:

>>> police escorts when they drive or are driven down a street

>>> VIP services, limousines, VIP and free flights from Thai Airways

>>> Overseas trips for themselves and family, often to visit their puppetmaster

>>> Tens of thousands of hours of gov't salaried legal experts, whether they choose to use them or not, because nearly everything they do entails legal ramifications

It's also not funny that no Pueu Thai members nor their puppetmaster are doing one iota of good for Thailand or the Thai people (other than bigwigs who score fat non-bid contracts for municipal projects). They're like bloated bloodsuckers on Thailand's skin.

Totally correct description of the whole scenario. I cannot see any sane Thai person casting a vote their way an the only votes they get would be purchased.

[monkfish]

So what is going on? I smell elections!!

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-opposed-to-amnesty-30137969.html

Guess Bhum Jai Thai Party are also trying to buy back the votes they sold to the Dems.

Things could get interesting

[scorecard]

Thai politics confuses me and most Thais I know don’t seem to understand. Can anyone explain the following

Who are political parties and how many MP’s does each party have

Who are main politicians in each party

Who/what is Newins faction/role in all this

Basic details of thai politics , not the history ive witnessed that over last 15 years

I also don't know much detail, but the overall sense I get of Thai politics is basically:

>>> Do as you're told, so we can all make as much money as possible.

>>> If you're not affiliated with a party, you don't have any hope of running for office

>>> If you're not connected to rich people / rich patrons, forget about running for office

>>> a few people at the head of each party decide who runs for office. It has little to do with the rest of the party members and even less to do with the voters

>>> Don't rock the boat, don't think creatively

>>> Don't concern yourself with environmental stuff, unless it's nice sounding words to please the public. All that matters is making as much money as possible. All else is window dressing.

>>> If you're banned from politicking, simply appoint your son or daughter to your former position. No matter if they have zero experience at the job. All is appearances. Substance is for woosies.

Agreed, and the end result is:

- None of the parties have a specific manifesto, and they don't want to have a specific manifesto because that would tie them down.

- 99% of the people in parliament are totally incapable in terms of taking part in / contributing to insightful debate / outlining a long-term vision, etc etc.

- Their sincerity level, in terms of the overall development of Thailand for the benefit of all thais is close to zero.

[Insight]

So what is going on? I smell elections!!

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-opposed-to-amnesty-30137969.html

Guess Bhum Jai Thai Party are also trying to buy back the votes they sold to the Dems.

Things could get interesting

I don't. Not until after the New Year at least.

[scorecard]

BJTs amnesty announcement is aimed directly at ex-TRT/PPP politicos

Interesting to read of the people and groups opposed to BJT's amnesty proposal.

Against

PM Abhisit

DPM Suthep

UDD Leader/PTP pitbull Jatuporn

PAD

Can't think of too many issues that those people are all in agreement.

Dems dont want to see BJT too big. Jatuporn is a defo sacrifce with the key thrown away if this plan comes off. PAD dont just dislike reds and PTP with a vengeance but dont have anytime for BJT either and have frequently stated in a rather paranoid manner that BJT are really still doing Thaksin's work, so yep we have a rather bizarre agreement across the spectrum

It's gratifying personally to see such a unified front against the amnesty proposal as it reflects my own opinion.

Although our motivations are rooted in completely different reasons, the amnesty opposition is the only thing I can recall being in agreement with Jatuporn over.

But why is jatuporn opposed to amnesty?

Must be a reason?

Would you trust this dangerous clown?

[daboyz1]

saw this in the newspaper today. by Mor, I hope its okay to post. delete if necessary

I thought it really spelled out whats going one, brilliant

Hilarious!

[rubl]

But why is jatuporn opposed to amnesty?

Must be a reason?

Would you trust this dangerous clown?

Maybe an amnesty doesn't fit K. Jatuporn's plan to go to the World Court to sue the government for the April - May deaths. Difficult to be a martyr if you're no longer charged with terrorism

As for 'would I trust him' no comment, my answer would tend to incriminate me I'm afraid

Edited September 15, 2010 by rubl

[Buchholz]

Dems dont want to see BJT too big. Jatuporn is a defo sacrifce with the key thrown away if this plan comes off. PAD dont just dislike reds and PTP with a vengeance but dont have anytime for BJT either and have frequently stated in a rather paranoid manner that BJT are really still doing Thaksin's work, so yep we have a rather bizarre agreement across the spectrum

It's gratifying personally to see such a unified front against the amnesty proposal as it reflects my own opinion.

Although our motivations are rooted in completely different reasons, the amnesty opposition is the only thing I can recall being in agreement with Jatuporn over.

But why is jatuporn opposed to amnesty?

Must be a reason?

Would you trust this dangerous clown?

He's opposed to it based upon the notion that UDD has not ever done anything wrong, hence there is no need to be given amnesty.

He's also opposed because would exonerate the ruthless killers, like Abhisit and Suthep (according to him).

As far as trusting him, if his own mother doesn't trust him, who am I to contradict someone that knows him better than anyone else?

Edited September 15, 2010 by Buchholz

[whybother]

He's opposed to it based upon the notion that UDD has not ever done anything wrong, hence there is no need to be given amnesty.

He's also opposed because would exonerate the ruthless killers, like Abhisit and Suthep (according to him).

As far as trusting him, if his own mother doesn't trust him, who am I to contradict someone that knows him better than anyone else?

From http://www.thaivisa....ai-politicians/

Jatuporn yesterday voiced his opposition to the proposed amnesty, saying it would benefit "killers of innocent people" rather than the protesters who he said "did not commit any wrongdoing".

Edited September 16, 2010 by whybother