When Do We Say Enough Is Enough?

[roamer]

As a brit working here who just negotiated a 14% pay rise, I have to say after considering moving home next year, I am now more inclined to stay a little longer. Granted, I would earn substantially more returning to a profession that I care for less and less as time passes. But here I can live comfortably with minimal drain on savings and love what I do. No case for me moving back really, I am afraid.

The Strong baht will only weed out those on modest fixed incomes from abroad. Perhaps most expats are better off than we think? I will return to making proper money at some point but it makes sense to do so when the economies of the countries I would flourish in, are in better shape, or to move into the SEO industry and have a "virtual" business with a bricks and motar location in a tax favourable nation.

If the Baht hits 38 to the pound, I wonder what it will hit to the dollar? (if they ever stop printing dollars...)

Dead wrong man,

I make a chunk of my bread from exporting locally manufactured Thai products. Which become much more expensive for my clients as the Baht rises. Every Thai manufacturing/ exporting entity is in the same boat. As things here become more and more expensive international buyers just take their money elsewhere to countries with wiser economic polices (like Vietnam or china) and buy the same goods cheaper. One only need to look at what happened to the Rice market here. Nam is killing us for rice export.

26-25 Baht to the Dollar would cause me to either leave or shift from a export based to a import based business (which I'm doing but it's a lil slower going then I would like)

Very true. I pointed out on another forum that if you could find Thai coconut milk in a UK supermarket it was 30-40% dearer than competing products....is the quality superior enough to justify that price differential ? Of course its not. Another company I know of now shops for the £4 million + cables it buys annually in Vietnam & India instead of LOS as was the case previously. The writing has been on the wall for some time, its a free market and if your goods are too costly buyers move on. Thailand has to realise that a strong currency and an export led economy are not good bedfellows.

[lovelomsak]

When i first came here us Canadians were getting 18 baht to the dollar.I was happy with that. But at that time things were cheap. Also Thailand wasnot as developed as it is today. Tourism wasnot as great. Many people wouldnot come here when I first came it scared them it wasnot safe enough. Then it got accepted and people started coming. Then the comforts started to grow. It was still relatively cheap so many people jumped on the chance to live here. The exchange rates were good too. So when i planned my retirement here I did it on an 18 baht to the dollar exchange. I feel the problem with many people is they saw the spike in rates and jumped thinking it would stay. There is nothing anyone can do for those who make poor choices in life.

For me because of the high rate exchange rate we have been getting the last few years my cash reserve back home has kept increasing to the point even if it drops back to 18 I have no concerns. In actuality because of the high rate we have been getting . allowing me to save moneyI will have more baht a month than I originally planned at 18 baht. So no problem for me let it happen.

[MikeCNX]

As a brit working here who just negotiated a 14% pay rise, I have to say after considering moving home next year, I am now more inclined to stay a little longer. Granted, I would earn substantially more returning to a profession that I care for less and less as time passes. But here I can live comfortably with minimal drain on savings and love what I do. No case for me moving back really, I am afraid.

The Strong baht will only weed out those on modest fixed incomes from abroad. Perhaps most expats are better off than we think? I will return to making proper money at some point but it makes sense to do so when the economies of the countries I would flourish in, are in better shape, or to move into the SEO industry and have a "virtual" business with a bricks and motar location in a tax favourable nation.

If the Baht hits 38 to the pound, I wonder what it will hit to the dollar? (if they ever stop printing dollars...)

Dead wrong man,

I make a chunk of my bread from exporting locally manufactured Thai products. Which become much more expensive for my clients as the Baht rises. Every Thai manufacturing/ exporting entity is in the same boat. As things here become more and more expensive international buyers just take their money elsewhere to countries with wiser economic polices (like Vietnam or china) and buy the same goods cheaper. One only need to look at what happened to the Rice market here. Nam is killing us for rice export.

26-25 Baht to the Dollar would cause me to either leave or shift from a export based to a import based business (which I'm doing but it's a lil slower going then I would like)

Very true. I pointed out on another forum that if you could find Thai coconut milk in a UK supermarket it was 30-40% dearer than competing products....is the quality superior enough to justify that price differential ? Of course its not. Another company I know of now shops for the £4 million + cables it buys annually in Vietnam & India instead of LOS as was the case previously. The writing has been on the wall for some time, its a free market and if your goods are too costly buyers move on. Thailand has to realise that a strong currency and an export led economy are not good bedfellows.

Indeed, this is a very real threat to the strong Thai economy. Why is it strong? Because it is export oriented. A stronger Thai Baht should slow exports and investment from abroad down.

Also, Thailand has a strong position in manufacturing cars, bikes and the like. But who own these companies? Foreign companies. If the cost of a higher baht outweighs the low salaries etc. etc. then of course they will consider moving the plant to another location. I.e. look at Vietnam at the moment. Billions of USD/EURO are being poured into the country, including money from very high tech companies such as Intel. It is easier to set up a factory/company there, including being able to actually 100% OWN your own business/land/etc. Now that is a huge bonus as well isn't it. The latter is the same for Cambodia.

My very personal vision for the future is that Cambodia and specifically Vietnam will overtake Thailand. It will take some years, but they are rigorously working very hard to get there.

[roamer]

Your right. People tend to forget that Thailand was open for business when places like Vietnam were not, therein lies at least partly the reason for the Thai "miracle". Now there is very real competition out there and Thailand is not about to wake up to it any time soon, too late IMHO. And when it does wake up it will be to find the carousel has moved on, these were the times to start investing some of those massive reserves into core basics such as education which might have enabled it to move on from being a rather large, low skilled & increasingly expensive factory

[Lammbock]

My money drops 20% already. I hope it stops now.

[PattayaParent]

As a brit working here who just negotiated a 14% pay rise, I have to say after considering moving home next year, I am now more inclined to stay a little longer. Granted, I would earn substantially more returning to a profession that I care for less and less as time passes. But here I can live comfortably with minimal drain on savings and love what I do. No case for me moving back really, I am afraid.

14% sounds great, and no doubt had a few people who are struggling to get by on decreasing income + rising prices turning the shade of green you invisaged they would.

But then 14% of what - And remmember, if you have not already got your pension/old age income sorted - or are not saving sufficiently to get it sorted you are inevitably going to be joining those who your 14% was aimed at baiting.

As I told my boss when he gave me a 20% pay rise, 20% of nothing is <deleted> all

[Kwasaki]

I say enough is enough when you haven't got a choice, if you have to think %,%,% what ever position your in your stupid, if you stayed here for the reason of exchange rates then you live in cloud cuckoo land, you should know what the score is, and if you are not able to stay here then it's full stop.

[Loz]

my retirement is covered but what i add will be padding. can never be too prepared. but nearly thirty years from my pension i like to have back ts plans for my back ts plans. a lot could change in ten years never mind twenty ns thirty when i'm too old to do anything about it. being here now is a luxury. but i've earned it. my point is the more i make here the less my future funds are eroded. ergo the more options left open.

[Naam]

Historically the Baht was at 25 against the USD. For the past 13 years we had the chance to take advantage of a very cheap Baht.

a "milkmaid" quote without any relevance! when the Baht was 25 for one Dollar all prices were much lower and therefore living expenses much more affordable. that also applies to the time when one Dollar bought 20 Baht (and less).

examples:

-in the 70s i paid for a suite in the old wing of the BKK Nana Hotel 450 Baht ($ 22.50), six good sized rock lobsters in an airconditioned restaurant where 60 Baht, taxi fare BKK-Pattaya was 250 Baht and an english and german speaking working girl showed you 24 hours the temples, floating market and what not for the pittance of 300 Baht.

in essence: Baht today is 50% weaker than 1976, prices have increased 500% and more!

[dominique355]

It's not so much the Thai Baht getting stronger as many other currencies getting weaker.

To my home country currency (Swiss Franc) the Thai Baht is still the same as it was 4 years ago, or about 30 THB for 1 CHF. But the US$ used to be about 1.2 CHF, now it's 1.0.

The US Dollar lost, the Euro lost and the GBP lost, but not the CHF.

The only thing that bothers me is that we don't see any price cuts on imports. Someone must make some hefty profits.

[Chunky1]

enough is enough, buy gold.

[GreenSnapper]

The only thing that bothers me is that we don't see any price cuts on imports. Someone must make some hefty profits.

Prices for imports in Villa Market actually are constantly raised - because of the strong Baht I was told....

[Tonto21]

Not wishing to gloat, but mealy answer the question. I for one have no fear of an exchange rate of 38 to the pound. It would suite me fine, back in 2005 I invested a substantial amount (for an average Joe) of pounds sterling into Thailand, (with a Thai partner) at the time the exchange rate was 79 Baht to the pound! I knew if the investment went the way it was predicted, (sell at the 5 year point) There was going to be a reasonable profit from a sale. Now with the exchange rate in my favor!…….. Luck, pure luck! We are now in the process of selling the assets on. So 38 Baht to the Pound…. Bring it on. I consider myself to be in a very good position now, but more by luck than design. I do feel sorry for those people that are and may struggle financially if the exchange rate takes a bigger hit. But for me it’s nice for once to be banging in the nails rather than lying on the cross.

Finally, to answer your question OP, Stay or go? I don’t know, I don’t need to import money to live in Thailand, so, the exchange rate, at least for a while would have no bearing on a go, stay decision. It would all depend on the countries livability, if the Baht was 38 to the pound. I think tourism, (from its traditional sources) would be shot, only high rollers……the economy would struggle and as we know how the Thais man up and deal with thing when they go wrong! I for one do not want to be one of the few farang’s left taking all the blame for the problems in Thailand!

[MSingh]

You HAVE to have a THB Income if you wnat to stay here with the ROE's as they are at the moment, it's imperative in my opinion..

It doesn't have to be your only source of Income but YOU have to have some THB coming into the Household i believe, even if it's as little as 10k per Month or wahtever, even if it pays for only the Month's Shopping Bills, or the Car etc....

True. A lot of guys can send the Mrs back to work I guess.

You're right, probably the vast majority of Guys if we're truthful with ourselves..

[elliss]

I've heard from a reliable source that it might go to 38.00 Thai baht to the pound next year

I wouldn't believe everything you hear, it's easy for people to make bold predictions without any real evidence to back their predictions up, did he also tell you how many millions of baht he bought at 47 odd to sell at 38 .

point taken.

however the £ has devalued against the thai bht

by 25 percent , over the last 5 years approx .

take this continung trend , to conclusion .

there is very little manufacturing/industrrial economy in the uk ,

to give us any hope of a financial recovery.

the good days are going , fast . :jap:

[Chunky1]

the USD and pound are significantly over-valued against the thb.

[morphious]

38bht to the pound now that would be a nightmare

It was 40 Baht to the pound when I decided to retire here so anything since then has been a bonus.

Mind, I didn't have school fees back then.

Maybee so but things were a dam sight less expensive back then too, street food has nearly doubled , alcohol prices are made up everyweek and ciggies are going through the roof, all everyday needs/wants so i dont see what you are gaining.

[Seekingasylum]

there is very little manufacturing/industrrial economy in the uk ,

to give us any hope of a financial recovery.

the good days are going , fast . :jap:

Err, the industrial sector contributes 25% to annual GDP and with the decrease in the service based sectors this will obviously increase proportionately.

Hardly very little, I would say but most pundits here at some point will be talking through their hats.

Everything comes in cycles, usually in 7 year ranges, so historically we probably have a bit of gloom to go yet but for most folk this simply compensates for the big profits made earlier.

[Beetlejuice]

It`s more the case that Western currencies are weak and I ask the OP, what is this reliable source where you obtain your information?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Oh, we're doing this topic again. Zzzz..

[WinnieTheKhwai]

You HAVE to have a THB Income if you wnat to stay here with the ROE's as they are at the moment, it's imperative in my opinion..

It doesn't have to be your only source of Income but YOU have to have some THB coming into the Household i believe, even if it's as little as 10k per Month or wahtever, even if it pays for only the Month's Shopping Bills, or the Car etc....

True. A lot of guys can send the Mrs back to work I guess.

I will definitely suggest that yes. Some additional Baht income would really help. Overall I have to say it's a lot nicer visiting Western countries.. Some are downright cheap now. This is good news for Thais and Thailand, they will be able to travel the world.

[Huey]

You HAVE to have a THB Income if you wnat to stay here with the ROE's as they are at the moment, it's imperative in my opinion..

It doesn't have to be your only source of Income but YOU have to have some THB coming into the Household i believe, even if it's as little as 10k per Month or wahtever, even if it pays for only the Month's Shopping Bills, or the Car etc....

True. A lot of guys can send the Mrs back to work I guess.

I will definitely suggest that yes. Some additional Baht income would really help. Overall I have to say it's a lot nicer visiting Western countries.. Some are downright cheap now. This is good news for Thais and Thailand, they will be able to travel the world.

Assuming they have a job when their factory shuts down because their goods can't be produced at a competitive price.

[Livinginexile]

I love the baht is so strong.

I get paid in Thai baht and send money home!

Go the baht!!

[prefabs]

I love the baht is so strong.

I get paid in Thai baht and send money home!

Go the baht!!

Another great, well thought out post from our resident <deleted>