More Rough Water Ahead For Thai PM Abhisit

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

More rough water ahead for PM

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appears invincible, but the burning question is whether he can repair the political divide by the next election. Next month the red and yellow shirts have scheduled separate protests.

The political rallies are to be held in defiance of the state of emergency.

The staging of red and yellow protests should not, under any circumstances, be underestimated. Abhisit's past challenges may pale in comparison to what his opponents are planning for him in the coming months.

Yesterday the Goddess of Fortune smiled on the prime minister, as his party received a favourable verdict on charges related to the alleged misuse of Bt29 million of state funds for campaigning.

This is the second time the Democrats have been exonerated from charges that could have led to their party being disbanded. In 2007, the party was acquitted after being accused of framing the Thai Rak Thai party.

Since assuming office in 2008, Abhisit has survived two political riots that ended in bloodshed, two censure votes and a world economic slump. It remains to be seen whether he will continue to be a survivor when facing opponents who are bent on faulting him for their self-serving gains.

Although the red and yellow shirts are not in a conspiracy to dethrone Abhisit, the coinciding of their activities next month could be a lethal concoction.

The yellow shirts plan to resume street protests on December 11 and vow to carry on until their demands are met. As rally organiser, the People's Alliance for Democracy wants to derail the boundary talks with Cambodia on the grounds that the government's position comes at a risk of Thailand losing territory.

If the PAD is straightforward in airing its opposition to the boundary talks, then it can be pacified. But the concern is that the upcoming rally might be just a pretext to stir up trouble because the PAD, including its ally New Politics Party, is unlikely to be in a position to carve out much of a share of the political pie after the election.

In October, the PAD organised a fund-raising dinner for its party. A number of PAD leaders made curious remarks about potential military intervention to rectify Thai politics. It is a sad fact that certain supposed advocates of democracy yearn for a clean slate so much that they're willing to condone a coup as a vehicle for change.

Abhisit should be on his guard. Should the PAD rally get out of control, the country could see a repeat of the 2006 coup regardless of plausible denials from military leaders.

The political volatility is poised to intensify, because red shirts have regrouped to rally behind a new collective leadership. Tomorrow the reds plan to map out their next move. Jailed leader weng Tojirakarn has designated his wife Thida Thawornseth to carry on the torch.

Among political activists, Thida is seen as a more radical hardliner than her husband. The red movement is currently dominated by supporters of fugitive leader Jakrapob Penkair, seen as the opposite of a moderate like Veera Musigapong.

If and when the reds resume their protests, they are expected to draw upon the "injustice" inflicted on their leaders still being held in jail and protesters who died in midyear to sway the crowds.

They will also play up what they see as the double standard in allowing the Democrats to escape disbandment but punishing the pro-Thaksin parties in two previous cases.

Surprisingly, fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has distanced himself from the reds and will not play a vital role in rallying the protesters. The reds, nonetheless, will return to the streets to demand justice with a vengeance. Abhisit should brace himself for even tougher challenges.

-- The Nation 2010-11-30

[tim armstrong]

Abhisit must have one of the toughest PMs jobs in the world. Despite the odds against it, he has held this coalition of 7 parties together. But until there is a fundamental change in belief that EVERYONE is entitled to a share of the pie, nothing will change much, and the factions will remain. But somehow the Thai economy is still OK.

[SomTumTiger]

Thaksin has distances himself from the Reds - which is why the Red protests are drawing 400-500 instead of the 10,000+ who were paid to be there before. He decided to stop betting on the losing horse.

[craigt3365]

Thaksin has distances himself from the Reds - which is why the Red protests are drawing 400-500 instead of the 10,000+ who were paid to be there before. He decided to stop betting on the losing horse.

I know we will never know this exactly...but it would be interesting so see how much Thaksin has spent with the reds since he was ousted. I can only imagine it is a huge sum...a lot of which ended up in the pockets of the red's leaders!

[Bagwan]

I know we will never know this exactly...but it would be interesting so see how much Thaksin has spent with the reds since he was ousted.  I can only imagine it is a huge sum...a lot of which ended up in the pockets of the red's leaders!

A case of following the fine example of Dear Leader or like father, like son? If the minor players managed to extract readies from Thaksin then they can't be all bad.  

[creck]

Quote

... Abhisit has survived two political riots that ended in bloodshed, ...

End quote

I thought it was the Chinese who rewrote history - I don’t remember any riot BEFORE the bloodshed. Only civil disobedience before. Certainly, after the bloodshed there were violent conflagrations that were inexcusable.

[termad]

Abhisit must have one of the toughest PMs jobs in the world. Despite the odds against it, he has held this coalition of 7 parties together. But until there is a fundamental change in belief that EVERYONE is entitled to a share of the pie, nothing will change much, and the factions will remain. But somehow the Thai economy is still OK.

It's not really such a tough job to hold onto. You just hand over the most lucrative ministries to the coalition party that is keeping you in power and turn a blind eye to whatever they do. All you have to do then is to do what you are told to do by the people who put you in power and the Courts will take care of the rest.

[DP25]

I know we will never know this exactly...but it would be interesting so see how much Thaksin has spent with the reds since he was ousted. I can only imagine it is a huge sum...a lot of which ended up in the pockets of the red's leaders!

You got to spend money to make money. If it had worked he would have gotten the $2 billion back and been in a position to take even more while in power.

[DP25]

I thought it was the Chinese who rewrote history - I don’t remember any riot BEFORE the bloodshed. Only civil disobedience before. Certainly, after the bloodshed there were violent conflagrations that were inexcusable.

Then you obviously weren't paying attention. Launching grenades at the skytrain and planting bombs all over the city is not civil disobedience. Killing counter protesters is not civil disobedience. Murdering non political people that ask you to leave is not civil disobedience. Invading Khao San Road to hide among human shields is not civil disobedience, nor is making large heavily armed fortifications in the center of the city, shooting home made rockets at passing helicopters, invading a hospital which resulted in the deaths of patients, stocking a mall with fuel canisters so you can burn it down, making plans to loot, rampage, and burn, etc

[animatic]

Quote

... Abhisit has survived two political riots that ended in bloodshed, ...

End quote

I thought it was the Chinese who rewrote history - I don't remember any riot BEFORE the bloodshed. Only civil disobedience before. Certainly, after the bloodshed there were violent conflagrations that were inexcusable.

Songkran this year; several instances

Songkran last year; several instances

ASEAN meeting in Pattaya,

Oct 7th at Parliament

Sept 2nd 2008

Chaing Mai radio owners father killed

Udon Thani Democrat speech interrupted by beatings

Just a few of those riots that ended in bloodshed.

And in all cases, including Oct 7th the actual commencement of violence

was directed from PPP, PTP or Red leadership.

A extraordinarily poor record of performance by those

who would want to rule the country.

[truethailand]

Thaksin has distances himself from the Reds - which is why the Red protests are drawing 400-500 instead of the 10,000+ who were paid to be there before. He decided to stop betting on the losing horse.

I know we will never know this exactly...but it would be interesting so see how much Thaksin has spent with the reds since he was ousted. I can only imagine it is a huge sum...a lot of which ended up in the pockets of the red's leaders!

Who funded all the yellow shirt protestor, they are the danger to the country moving forward

[truethailand]

Abhisit must have one of the toughest PMs jobs in the world. Despite the odds against it, he has held this coalition of 7 parties together. But until there is a fundamental change in belief that EVERYONE is entitled to a share of the pie, nothing will change much, and the factions will remain. But somehow the Thai economy is still OK.

It's not really such a tough job to hold onto. You just hand over the most lucrative ministries to the coalition party that is keeping you in power and turn a blind eye to whatever they do. All you have to do then is to do what you are told to do by the people who put you in power and the Courts will take care of the rest.

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