Purchase Timing For International Air Tickets

[craigt3365]

Lots of folks here have expressed the same conventional wisdom opinion that you recite below... mostly without any factual evidence to support it...

Few have done what I did, which was to actually track the purchase prices available for a trip both ahead of time and then right up to the departure date for that exact same trip...and compare the prices available during the entire period.

As I reported in the OP....for my travel to L.A., waiting until the week before the Christmas travel date would have been much less expensive than a ticket purchased months earlier...

I never said the same situation would apply in every case... But it certainly did in the example that I was testing... And that's not just an opinion... That's the facts as I documented earlier in the thread.

I'd be more willing to view the other side of the argument if I saw the early purchase crowd coming forward with best price examples of what they paid months before, and then what they could/would have paid just before their departure... Not seeing much of that here.

I also agree that waiting until the last minute has more risks than benefits. The price may go down 5% if you are really lucky, but if you bet wrong, the price will go way way up.

3 or 4 years ago I put off buying tickets to Japan, then onward to BKK, when I saw a good deal. It was about 3 months before my trip. 1 month later, the price went up by about 25% and it never went down, only up, up, up. I think that is when fuel prices were rising rapidly.

I bought then about 6 weeks before the trip. I tracked it up until the week before as I was sooooooo mad!!!!! It was a big deal as I was buying 2 tickets.

[jfchandler]

Interesting article here from the Wall Street Journal on the best DAYS during the week to shop for bargain airline tickets...

The article only deals with the best days of the week (think TUESDAY!!!), but is silent on the issue of how far in advance of a flight is the best time to purchase...

http://www.smartmoney.com/spending/deals/whatever-you-do-dont-buy-an-airline-ticket-on-1296142523305/

[hagaii]

My opinion on the question is how important is your timing. We have been travelling to and from LOS for ten years and flights and prices have fluctuated dramatically. But it seems that the amount of flights have been drastically reduced and therefore airlines are getting more for the flights. There are occasional cheap flights but they are not guaranteed. Last time I went home EVA was really cheap but they sold out over 90 days before departure on their website. Flights with KAL are down to the last seats for April this year. I say book ahead.

[californiabeachboy]

Now I am hooked on this -I posted earlier (posting #54). I just checked the flight I booked about a month ago. For a San Diego to Los Angeles to Hong Kong (two day layover) and then to Bangkok, and a return, I paid $1175 USD about 7 weeks before departure on Cathay Pacific. I just checked the exact same flights (same day same time, now about 3 weeks before the flight) and it is around $1,450, so about $275 more.

I probably could have knocked some of that difference off by selecting less popular flights. For example, I am now leaving HK at 1:00 in the afternoon, which is perfect for me because I can get up have a leisurely breakfast, check out of the hotel and make my way to the airport, and it gets me in to LA at a good time for a connecting flight. I may have been able to knock something off by taking the midnight flight, but I hate midnight flights when I am in a hotel because I have to check out, wander around the city all day, figure out how to get a shower before my flight (consideration for my seatmates), etc.

Bottom line - If you don't care about timing, maybe not a huge deal, but if you do, I think it is a big difference.

[TobiasMattsson]

Another tip I came across was to always clear your cookies before returning to the same site as multiple visits could trigger a price rise.

I tried it out on the Etihad site and it eventually came back £40 more expensive.

Not sure if this is always the case but I now clear my cookies out.

I forgot all about that. And you are sooooo right. It does make a difference. Smart buggers...

For me the price is not the only issue, but the timing of the flights. I hate arriving at an airport late at night - it makes getting to your destination more difficult. I also don't like leaving very early in the morning as transport to the airport may be difficult.

I am in the process of booking my third flight from LA to Bangkok on Cathay Pacific. I use CP because they give me a free stopover in Hong Kong on the way over and the way back, and I like spending a couple of days in HK. In my experience the price of their flights does not change that much assuming you are 3 months to two weeks before the flight, but the availability of the "good" flights on certain days does.

I also agree that waiting until the last minute has more risks than benefits. The price may go down 5% if you are really lucky, but if you bet wrong, the price will go way way up.

Can you share with me what you normally pay? I would love a stopover in HKK. I've done a few in Tokyo, but it always raises the price...and it ain't a cheap place to hangout. We just got back from Vegas. Left on December 7 and returned today (very early AM). I got a great deal for $1175. But looks like I will have to go back in May. Bummer! That long flight sucks.

Hi all!

First of all this is a really interesting subject.

Second, I´ve come across that heathrowairport.com has the cheapest prices than 95% of all websites incl. the airlines official sites.

Purchase: I just checked your May-flight, just for the fun of it, departure date May 7th.

I´ll get back to you with my deals when I have finished reading the rest of this thread...

Cheers!

Ps. I´m from Stockholm, Sweden, and make a couple of trips when my work let me do so...

[TobiasMattsson]

Alright... Here is the deal...

I´m 26 years old and have been travelling way before I was even thought of.

Due to my parents sickness of living in our arctic climate during our Swedish winters they decided to travel around the world and settling down somewhere more suitable,

So I picked up a few things over the years..

Now I´ve been travelling on my own and here is what I come across. heathrowairport(.com) official site (due to I´m a new member I cant post url´s within 72 hours) has the absolutely cheapest fares regardless where in the world you are travelling from.

For instance, like my above reply, BKK-LAS is at least a couple of 100 US$ lower than mentioned... (+1000$)...

In September I´m off for a couple of days in Amman. Cheapest ticket is today 115 Euros incl. taxes from Air Baltic official page. I don´t mind flying with them cause a couple of hours with a crappy airline and I save about 300 Euros on a ticket with THY.

Next stop is BKK so I searched all over the internet for the most cheap ticket departure between Sept 17th to 21st. heathrowairport.com has the same price that Qatar has on their site, 263£ one way, with the only exeption that Qatar´s exchange rate is a bit better... i thought of flying to Tokyo (before the terrible earthquake and tsunami), Seoul, Singapore and Hong Kong. The cheapest flight was between AMM-DOH-BKK.

But I compared a dozen websites and airlines and the cheapest tickets I could find on all segments could be found on the heathrow website. The price could even be as much as 300£ more on other sites.

So to my conclusion, before you book a ticket if you think that you have come across a good deal, make a stop at heathrowairport to compare the total price. All prices incl. taxes and additional charges.. (Your CC holder might charge you for the exchange fee...) but it´s still worth it, especially if you are from UK.

Cheers!

[craigt3365]

Here's an interesting article on purchase timing for air tickets:

http://travel.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/travel/27prac-fares.html?nl=travel&emc=tda1

[THAIPHUKET]

I booked 2 weeks ago return special BKK-FRA directly with Qatarair, business. Prompted by this post I checked the Special price again today. Instead of the 81.400 b the price is now a whole lot more= 96.000 Special!!

[jfchandler]

Just a bit of an update on this, and on my original hypothesis that air fare rates between BKK and LAX seem to find their way to among their lowest levels in the weeks prior to travel vs. several months ahead.

Ever since my original post here, I've been watching and getting regular emailed updates on the best airfares between BKK and LAX for a hypothetical mid-June outbound trip from BKK... In the past couple months, I've regularly seen the best available RT tickets, including all taxes and fees, climb to the $1300 to $1500 range, based on emails from Kayak and other sources.

Now, about 5 weeks ahead of my hypothetical trip, I'm suddenly seeing RT flights on Delta for about $1070 including all taxes and fees (but excluding checked baggage fees). The tickets were flagged on one of my email notices, and I found them direct from Delta's web site... Some of them include a 2nd U.S. stop en route... Some of them are the standard one-stop in Japan...

In any event, these are some of the lowest prices I've seen in months for a June 2011 trip, and close to the low market fares China Eastern was offering a few months back. This past week, the Delta fares to LAX were even better than the ones China Eastern was offering then for the same travel dates...

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the coming month prior to those mid June trip dates... See the screen cap of the Delta web site fares below...

[SantiSuk]

I looked at today's prices compared to my original booking. Results were that the fare is £1 cheaper today (£589) than it was one month ago when I booked for an EVA direct flight leaving London 21 May and returning 20 July. BUT when I originally booked virtually every day of May was at that sort of price. Now the flights are full on some days - for instance if I had to travel EVA one day earlier the price is £2,014 (first class presumably).

The price to leave in the next week and come back two months later is also £589 when available, so I doubt that EVA is dropping prices for late bookings. Interestingly though, the price is over £100 more expensive if you stay in Thailand just one day longer than two months. This effect works on many date combinations and I noted this effect when I originally booked.

Just one airline, so I will not preach too many general conclusions. But IMO, having travelled London to BKK every two months for the best part of 5 years - direct and indirect, if you leave it late you may get a cheaper price but it may be more expensive and you will have less flexibility unless it reverts to woefully excessive capacity on your route. The more flexible you can be on go/return dates the more money you will save. A shorter or longer trip may vary the price substantially too.

If you are very flexible on dates and are willing to put the kind of effort in that JFChandler does I guarantee you will get a good deal by not booking early

Sources Opodo.com

[jfchandler]

If you are very flexible on dates and are willing to put the kind of effort in that JFChandler does I guarantee you will get a good deal by not booking early

Actually, it's getting easier and less time consuming in some respects because of technology. Kayak.com and some other good travel sites will let you set up a flight profile for a particular trip on particular dates, and then send you periodic emails -- you have different choices on how often to receive them -- showing you the lowest prices available at that point and also info on pricing trends up or down, etc etc... If you see a fare level that works for you, you then can go in and do a more detailed search and select an airline and book the trip, if you desire.

The harder part, of course, is still trying to decide when the price offered is the one you want to buy at, or wait hoping for a better deal, or buy now and then perhaps see you could have done better a month later... Technology still isn't very good at predicting the future...

[Gaccha]

Two points:

1. booking very very last minute

2. benefits of paying way too much

I have experienced both the above.

1.

I took a flight from Bangkok to London by booking the night before. As every travel agent will tell you the price absolutely collapses at this point, as the airline will drop their minimum price and take any offer. The price tanked from the absirdly expensive 55,000 baht level to 31,000 baht. This low very very last minute price never appears on the internet offers since it is a human negotiated last minute bargain system. I listened in real time as the price was agreed.

2.

I have also booked at an extremely expensive price of 1,500 pounds for economy from London to Bangkok. The price rose 500 pounds the day before and I had enough so I just booked. But there was an unmentioned benefit. Like a lot of airlines, Thai Airways determines which Economy class passengers to upgrade by a ranking system, and one of the most important markers is by how much you paid. So the moment I got to the desk, I was upgraded. So, in fact, I got business class for 1,500. While I sipped on my champagne I mused on the cattle class passengers behind me.

[jfchandler]

Despite the doubters here, it looks like my hypothesis is proving true again, at least for the BKK to LAX segment, regarding the mid June trip that I've been tracking ever since Thanksgiving, when I reported and raised the same issue in the original post here...

Here's the latest fare trend line from Kayak for the BKK to LAX RT in mid June, now with about 3 weeks away from departure... Anyone who bought earlier is pretty much getting ripped by comparison... Now China Eastern is close to $1,000, and Delta has been under $1,100 for the past couple weeks... Pay particular attention to the fare trend graph showing pricing during the past couple months...

Edited May 25, 2011 by jfchandler

[lomatopo]

The crises in Japan have obviously had a significant impact on DL and UA, both of which have big hubs at NRT and operate NRT-BKK with their own metal. Their loads ex-NRT are down ~ 25% so you are seeing some effects of supply/demand creating continued downward price pressure. By just looking at one city-pair, on one set of dates, involving carriers using NRT; then remembering when the crises hit Japan and that DL and UA issued travel waivers, it is easy to understand the price curve. BTW, I don't trust a lot of these aggregator web-sites, on the initial display fro a routing, and their fares; you really have to click through to purchase (not through) to see if the fare is truly available.

Current (as of 5 min ago), real, available, pricing:

[californiabeachboy]

The Kayak graph above shows the flight time on the China Eastern flight from Bkk to LA at 31 hours!! They should be giving that one away for free.

[jfchandler]

The Kayak graph above shows the flight time on the China Eastern flight from Bkk to LA at 31 hours!! They should be giving that one away for free.

In the graph you're referring to, the Delta flight, priced just a bit higher, has total travel times of 18 and 21 hours....

For some people, time is more important than money... For others, money is more important than time...

[jfchandler]

As it turned out, I have actually needed to purchase one of these tickets for something of an unexpected emergency... Bought a week in advance on Delta and paid about $1050...

Details in this post in another, related air travel thread....

[jfchandler]

The crises in Japan have obviously had a significant impact on DL and UA, both of which have big hubs at NRT and operate NRT-BKK with their own metal. Their loads ex-NRT are down ~ 25% so you are seeing some effects of supply/demand creating continued downward price pressure. By just looking at one city-pair, on one set of dates, involving carriers using NRT; then remembering when the crises hit Japan and that DL and UA issued travel waivers, it is easy to understand the price curve. BTW, I don't trust a lot of these aggregator web-sites, on the initial display fro a routing, and their fares; you really have to click through to purchase (not through) to see if the fare is truly available.

Current (as of 5 min ago), real, available, pricing:

Yep, the 32,000+ baht all-inclusive fare for Delta is the price I paid, purchasing direct thru Delta's web site.

I have seen some good, though not better, fares on United lately... But Delta consistently has had the better deals/pricing.

I did think it odd, though, because in all my past fare tracking through the years, I've never seen Delta (or Northwest previously) emerge with market leading pricing for the BKK to LAX route...

Guess there's at least one silver lining in this particular nuclear cloud.

'

'

[lomatopo]

Guess there's at least one silver lining in this particular nuclear cloud.

Yes, absolutely for you. Before the Japan crises you would have had to buy a B fare (99,535 baht) or an M fare (85,515 baht), as the T bucket (which you purchased) would have been sold out long ago. Looking at the seatmaps for your flights load is still below 40%. A discounted bBusiness class fare (I) is 109.640 baht. Still in "shoulder" season until June 30 then "peak" season until Labor Day.

UA has slightly higher loads, and have closed out the least expensive Economy bucket so ~ 4,000 baht more (via CO codeshare, on UA metal).

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Study Shows the Best Time to Book Flights Is 6 Weeks in Advance

By Lindsay Sakraida, dealnews Features Director

Trying to plan a budget-friendly trip can be a difficult task wrought with indecision and second-guessing. Airline prices can sometimes fluctuate on a daily basis, and although you know not to wait until the last minute to book, should you also avoid buying too early? Does it make sense to hold out for a little while to secure a better price?

A recent study from the Airlines Reporting Corp. offers to shed light on the "when to book" matter. The firm discovered that the sweet spot for getting the best price on a flight is approximately six weeks before the date of travel, as reported by the Los Angeles Times. Airlines Reporting found that flights purchased within that time frame were "nearly 6% below the overall average fare" of flights purchased at other times. (Not surprisingly, the organization also found that tickets tend to increase in price by up to 40% if purchased the day of travel.)

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