Make Up Your Mind, Thaksin

[webfact]

Make up your mind, Thaksin

By Tulsathit Taptim,

Chularat Saengpassa

The Nation

Uncertainties over leadership are threatening to blow Pheu Thai Party apart

"How" to fight the battle has been mapped out, more or less. But the ultimate question is coming back to haunt the Pheu Thai Party and its de-facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra with renewed urgency: "Who" will spearhead the opposition camp's election campaign? Who will be the one who can keep increasingly restless factions together and presented to the public as "This can be your prime minister."

"If Thaksin doesn't make a decision on this soon, he may as well kiss everything else goodbye," said a high-ranking Pheu Thai source, a veteran with a front-seat view of all the bad signs looming at the biggest political party.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source expressed worries over the ruling Democrats' continuous welfare offensives, the possibility of the electoral system reversing to the smaller constituency model, Pheu Thai's internal fighting and the unsettled party leadership issue.

"Things are not good, but the most important, most critical and most urgent of them all is the question of who will lead the party," the source said. The party has some ideas on how to turn the issue of "injustice" and "double standards" to its favour in the election campaign, and how to counter the coalition government's "hijacking" of welfare initiatives, but the question is "who" will do it.

The current leader, Yongyuth Wichaidit, is a nice guy with an all right image, but to party members he's been nothing but a seat warmer whom Thaksin put at the helm to forestall a potentially disastrous power struggle. With Pheu Thai having to go for broke in the next election, Yongyuth has taken the party as far as he can. Thaksin can no longer buy time to avoid the consequences of installing a more charismatic leader, the source said.

A couple of months ago, Yongyuth "resigned" from the leadership post under dubious circumstances, only to be immediately put back on the hot seat by the man from afar. Make no mistake, Yongyuth is presentable as prime minister. The only problem is if he remains party leader, Pheu Thai may not be able to put itself in the position to vie for premiership in the first place.

Yongyuth's staying on as Pheu Thai leader will very likely send a key faction led by Mingkwan Sangsuwan to break away from the party. Mingkwan's political ambition is getting stronger every day, reportedly underlined by his generous financial support for many MPs and his relentless efforts to obtain Thaksin's stamp of approval. His "envoys" who have met Thaksin do not bring back very encouraging news, but with a sizeable number of MPs under his wing, Mingkwan's bargaining power is expected to grow when a general election draws near.

"If there's anyone in Pheu Thai capable of leaving to set up a new party and taking a few dozen MPs with him, it's Mingkwan," said the source. A few dozen will be enough to ruin Pheu Thai's chances of a poll victory. The dilemma, however, is that Mingkwan's rise may open another exit, this time for his detractors.

Thaksin can at least take heart in the fact that a close rival of Mingkwan, Chalerm Yoobamrung, is more like a solo artist who does not have many MPs under his control. But again, nobody can imagine Chalerm serving a party with Mingkwan as its leader. And losing Chalerm means losing the party's best parliamentary player and strategist. "Chalerm is not building a faction within Pheu Thai and he's absolutely not thinking about forming a new party of his own," said the source. "But he has been a great parliamentary weapon, without whom the party can be virtually toothless."

Like Chalerm, Chavalit Yongchai-yudh does not have a faction and boasts political experience as his key asset. Unlike Chalerm, Chavalit is more dispensible, and the former general taking Pheu Thai's helm may further complicate its grass roots-oriented and politically sensitive agendas.

But in the end, image, money or experience matter less than the question of whom Thaksin can trust. The ousted leader needs someone totally at his command and who will not turn against him a la Newin Chidchob. Mingkwan could have been appointed ages ago had Thaksin totally felt he could rely on him. The "trust" issue has over the past few days spawned rumours mooting Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman as new party leader.

Pojaman's open role in politics will only bring back all the troubles that banished Thaksin and put Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra family businesses in their current state. The same goes for another much-mentioned candidate for party leadership, Thaksin's youngest sister Yingluck Shinawatra.

All the choices look tough for Thaksin. And the political calendar makes it all the more difficult. The year after next will see many qualified pro-Thaksin veterans politically free again after a five-year ban. That means even if Thaksin makes a drastic decision on the party leadership today, another big headache will come in 2012. A "compromise" decision today, however, could be too little to enable the party to win the next election, and victory in the next election is all Thaksin needs.

"I urge him to make a choice now, no matter how hard it is," the source said. "I know there are long-term things to worry about, but doing nothing today and there could be nothing left to worry about."

-- The Nation 2010-12-27

[givenall]

How much more do we have to read about Mr. T. He is irrelevant t Thai politics

[MaiChai]

They should call themselves the Taksin Shinawatra Proxy Party because that is exactly what they are. What Thailand needs is a real opposition party with real policies rather than a party whose sole aim is to get Taksin back in power. If he gets back in power, Thailand will be taking a huge step back in terms of many things (democracy, corruption, nepotism, human rights, equality in society, etc).

[whybother]

How much more do we have to read about Mr. T. He is irrelevant t Thai politics

Tell that to the PTP. He's obviously not irrelevant to them.

[SomTumTiger]

I love reading about PTP stuggles - it couldn't happen to a nicer group of bozos

[ratcatcher]

How much more do we have to read about Mr. T. He is irrelevant t Thai politics

I should like to think that you are right with your comment, but it seems otherwise.

The Puea Thai Party PTP is like a headless chicken, running around in circles going nowhere, while the 'head' resides in Dubai.

The 'yes-men' who made the pilgrimage to Dubai to grovel & worship at the feet of Dear Leader Thaksin are potentially (though I pray not) the future leaders of this country if disaster befalls the Democrat alliance in the soon to be called election.

[scorecard]

They should call themselves the Taksin Shinawatra Proxy Party because that is exactly what they are. What Thailand needs is a real opposition party with real policies rather than a party whose sole aim is to get Taksin back in power. If he gets back in power, Thailand will be taking a huge step back in terms of many things (democracy, corruption, nepotism, human rights, equality in society, etc).

Agree, exactly what Thailand does not need.

In fact, sorry a bit off topic, but it reminds me again of the need for Thailand to amend the constitution etc., so that one person can never again gain so much power and control / one person can never again do so much willful destruction to the judiciary, the electoral commission etc., / one person can never again get away with sudden reversal of major invetments laws for personal gain / one person cannot have the power to order extrajudical killings of fellow Thai citizens with no recourse to the processes and protections of the judicial process, etc.

[jdinasia]

How much more do we have to read about Mr. T. He is irrelevant t Thai politics

Hmmmm I guess you haven't been in Thailand in the last 9 years, or read the news any given day, or spoken to a single red-shirt.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

Thaksin risks his "diplomatic immunity" in Dubai if he continues to meddle in Thai politics. He's in no position to be choosing the leader of PTP.

[Bagwan]

Having the cuddly Potjaman as PM? Do leave it out. She couldn't spare the time with the amount of shopping that she deems be necessary.