BURNING ISSUE

Govt leads in charter change, but don't discount Pheu thai role

By Jintana Panyaarvudh

Charter amendment always creates conflict in Thai politics.

At first, the ruling Democrat Party showed its opposition to change in the charter, especially to the electoral system, from multiple MPs to a single MP per constituency.

But when a study by the charter change panel proposed amending the system, the ruling party had no choice but to accept it. The panel - as part of political reform - was headed by Sombat Thamrongthanya-wong, an appointee of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjaijva.

The Democrats appear to have been defeated by their coalition partners, but in fact they may finally win. After the Democrats accepted the proposal of Sombat's panel, conflict among the coalition partners and the ruling party should have been solved, but it was not. They disagreed with the apportioning of the House seats. The ruling party is pushing for the formula of 375 seats for constituency MPs and 125 for party-list MPs. Other coalition parties are in favour of the 400-100 formula.

The Democrats would gain an electoral advantage over small parties via the 375-125 MPs formula. Big parties would be destined to win a bigger portion of proportionate votes cast for party-list MPs.

The reduction of constituency House seats from 400 to 375 would result in 24 provinces seeing lower numbers of MPs representing them. Of the total re-duction, the South would see a loss of only four House seats. The Democrats, who have strongholds in the South, would probably be compensated by winning more party-list seats via proportionate votes.

The Democrats are trying desperately to convince their partners to sway the vote. They will host a dinner tomorrow for their coalition partners. Abhisit confirmed last week he would personally talk with his coalition partners to solicit their support for the apportionment of House seats under a constitutional amendment.

The ruling party seems to have the upper hand as they hold two tools to sway the vote - the Bt120-billion-midyear budget and the threat of House dissolution.

The ruling party could allocate funding to their coalition allies and receive their support for the 375-125 formula in return. If their partners still insist on the 400-100 formula, the Democrats might decide to dissolve the House after losing the vote in the second and third readings. The Democrats could exercise a strong right to dissolve the House while the law was waiting for royal endorsement. The new election would then be held under the current Constitution, which guarantees multiple MPs in a constituency and the 400-80 formula, and is a gain for the Democrats.

But there's one important thing to consider. By law, once the opposition Pheu Thai Party files a censure motion the premier is not able to dissolve the House. And Pheu Thai has not decided yet, when it will submit the motion.

In regard to seats in Parliament, the 172 Democrat MPs would definitely lose if other parties join hands with most senators who support the 400-100 formula. This was about to happen when the joint ad hoc parliamentary committee vetting constitutional amendments considered the bill. The initial vote was 17-17 so panel chair Tirdpong Jayanandana, also a senior Democrat MP, had to exercise his vote to help his party win. The final vote was 18-17 in favour the 375-125 MPs formula.

However, there is yet another possible way out for the Democrats.

To pass the charter amendment in its third reading requires more than half of the existing members of Parliament. There are 623 members (473 MPs and 150 senators) now, therefore the bill can only be passed with a vote in excess of 312. Around 100 MPs from other small parties and around 100 senators, who supported the 400-100 formula, alone could not pass the bill. They need support - votes - from the 186 Pheu Thai MPs.

But Pheu Thai has still not decided whether to stay out of the charter amendment campaign. Some MPs have proposed that all Pheu Thai MPs vote to support the 400-100 formula, while others have said MPs should vote freely and still others say Pheu Thai MPs should boycott the charter amendment.

If Pheu Thai really boycotts the amendment, the bill could be aborted because there would not be the required votes to pass it. This would be a good way out for the ruling Democrats, who were against charter changes from the beginning. On the other hand, if Pheu Thai decides to vote in favour of the small parties, the Democrats will lose.

So, Pheu Thai MPs can still play a decisive role in the fate of the Democrats, and this bill.

-- The Nation 2011-01-17

How do I delete a post I just put in the wrong place?

Edited January 17, 201115 yr by thailandbluegrass

God politics is boring - PTP has no legs but it can veto a bill - go figure.