Parties In Thailand Moving Into Election Gear

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BURNING ISSUE

Parties moving into election gear

By Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

Politicians are counting down to the next general election expected around the middle of the year.

Veteran politician Newin Chidchob, de-facto leader of the coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party, recently told reporters during a luncheon with senior party figures that he expected the prime minister to dissolve the House of Representatives no later than June.

That remark is in line with an earlier report that Suthep Thaugsuban, the ruling Democrat Party's secretary-general who is regarded as "the coalition's manager", informed the coalition parties to get ready within 90 days for the next election.

Now it depends on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat leader, to decide when to dissolve the House - something Suthep may not know exactly.

The government-sponsored constitutional amendment has sailed though Parliament in the final reading on February 11. The next step is to seek royal endorsement for the amendment so that the new electoral system (including changes in the numbers of constituencies and party-list MPs) can be adopted in the next general election.

Submission of the amendment for royal endorsement has been put on hold, pending a Constitution Court verdict whether the process of charter changes was constitutional, following a petition by the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

With uncertainties about the amended provisions regarding the election, Election Commission member Prapun Naigowit said that the EC was drafting an amendment to the electoral law to comply with the charter changes. He expected the new legislation to be completed in March. Prapun also suggested that House dissolution should be done after the constitutional amendment is promulgated in the Royal Gazette, otherwise the original provisions from the current charter will be applied for the next general election.

A source from the coalition said House dissolution would highly likely take place when the coalition parties, particularly the core member Democrat Party, are ready - in terms of financial and popular support.

"It is likely to happen in late March", after the bill of additional budget for fiscal 2011 (also known as the mid-year budget) sails through the House of Representatives on March 2 before being endorsed by the Senate on March 14.

"Next, the Democrat Party will hold their fund-raising event on March 8, and the Chart Thai Pattana Party on March 12," said the source, who is a leading coalition figure.

So, there is a high possibility for an election around the middle of the year - the prime minister has hinted repeatedly about that. The Constitution requires that an election be held not before 45 days and no later than 60 days of House dissolution.

The coalition parties have expressed optimism about their performance in the upcoming election, as campaign strategies are being devised and fund-raising events are planned in preparation for the "big day".

Korbsak Sabhavasu, who heads the Democrat Party's election-campaigning committee, said that the recent public opinion polls showed "satisfactory" levels of popularity for the prime minister. This was expected to help boost the party's chance of winning the most House seats in the election.

Banharn Silapa-archa, chief adviser to the coalition Chart Thai Pattana Party, expressed confidence the party would be able to win as many as 40 seats from the party-list system of proportional representation, with an increase in the number of MP seats from 100 to 125 in this constitutional amendment.

Chart Thai Pattana spokesman Watchara Kannikar said the party expected to win as many as 50 House seats from constituencies and the party list, up from 24 in the previous election.

The coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party aims to win at least 70 House seats, according to a party source.

"There's no problem about funding [for the election campaign]," said the source, who is a senior party figure. Newin has been careful about selecting the party's election candidates - many of whom are veteran local politicians, former provincial governors, and former elected senators in the Northeast, according to the source.

Another political party eyeing to win in the Northeast is the Puea Pandin Party - which is partly in the coalition and partly in the opposition. Puea Pandin's factions led by the "Three Ps" - Pairoj Suwanchawee, Pinij Jarusombat, and Preecha Laohapongchana - plan to merge with another veteran Suwat Liptapanlop's coalition Ruam Chart Pattana Party.

"Puea Pandin is one of the strongest parties in the Northeast" with a merger with Suwat's party and Pracha Promnok's dissident faction, said a party source. "We expect to win at least 30 House seats."

Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Pandin are financed by separate businesses - some of them are business rivals.

-- The Nation 2011-02-17