Censure Debate Dwarfed By Looming Polls In Thailand

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Censure debate dwarfed by loomIng polls

By Tulsathit Taptim

It has been a relatively calm prelude to the storm of next week's no-confidence debate. Jatuporn Promphan's threat to revisit the contentious issue of the torching of CentralWorld on May 19 has not even spiced things up. The "men in black" have and will remain Thailand's political outcasts no matter what transpires.

There are a few reasons why the upcoming parliamentary censure has not created much excitement. With the public anticipating House dissolution in the wake of the no-confidence showdown - sooner rather than later - the parliamentary battle has lost much of its significance. Then there is the problem of factions within the opposition Pheu Thai Party, meaning its star attraction, Chalerm Yoobamrung, will stay largely on the sidelines.

This may be because people are generally tired of politics and eager to start anew. "Let's get this over with and bring on elections so we can move on" could be what's on the minds of many Thais. The censure, such an important tool in a democracy, will only deepen what neutral Thais are weary of - unprecedented political divisions.

Pheu Thai, however, has no choice. It needs to soften up its main rivals before the next election. Allowing a spending-happy coalition government to enter the elections with few parliamentary scars would be too much of a risk. Pheu Thai cannot count on the red shirts' support alone - a lesson it learned from what happened in 2008.

Both Pheu Thai and the Democrats know that unless one of them wins the elections by a landslide, the other political parties would become kingmakers. It would be easier for the Democrats, because even if they lose by a small margin, the current coalition may hold.

Pheu Thai requires a clear-cut, huge victory.

So, what's the deal with the planned meeting of Banharn Silapa-archa's and Newin Chidchob's parties ahead of the no-confidence debate?

Some analysts don't read too much into it, because Thai political history shows there's no such thing as a pre-election pledge to stick together come what may. Maybe the members of the two coalition parties are just getting together to comfort or console each other, or just to chit-chat over a nice meal.

Some analysts feel every step that anybody takes will be closely watched from now on. The meeting between the Banharn and Newin camps, they say, could be significant because one side, despite being part of the coalition, has not entirely burned its bridges with former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, while the other has stabbed the ousted leader in the back at least a couple of times.

In other words, Banharn's party can join a Pheu Thai government in the blink of an eye, whereas Newin's Bhum Jai Thai can't do this unless a few Thai political big guns have a huge change of heart. Is it possible that these two parties will discuss this situation when they meet next week? It is likely. Will something concrete come out of it? Absolutely not!

There should be no big waves as yet, even if we add House Speaker Chai Chidchob's puzzling stubbornness over how long the no-confidence session should take. The imminent censure has generated ripples at best, and today's meeting between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the Election Commission to discuss an election date seems, at least for now, far more welcome.

The mood is clear: everybody is looking forward to the big show, the first general election of a bitterly divided Thailand. The censure will just be a prelude to something significant, which has yet to present itself.

-- The Nation 2011-03-11