Thai PM Abhisit To Dissolve Parliament By Early May For Election

[webfact]

Thai PM to dissolve parliament by early May for election

by Boonradom Chitradon

BANGKOK, March 11, 2011 (AFP) - Thailand's prime minister said Friday he would dissolve the lower house of parliament by early May for what is expected to be a hard-fought election in the politically divided nation.

The move would pave the way for a vote in late June or early July as by law polls must be held between 45 and 60 days after house dissolution.

"It's about time for voters to decide what they really want," Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva told reporters.

"I believe that an election is crucial for people to decide the direction of politics," he said. "Many people do not want to see any more unrest and want to move ahead."

Thai society remains bitterly divided following the country's worst civil violence in decades last year.

Abhisit, the British-born, Oxford-educated head of the establishment Democrat Party, must call a vote by the end of this year, when his term finishes, but he has repeatedly said he favours early polls.

The head of the country's election commission, Apichart Sukhagganond, told reporters Friday he believed a June election would be best.

Abhisit defied sceptics last year to survive a crippling political crisis, which saw a series of street clashes between anti-government protesters and armed troops in central Bangkok in April and May.

The mass protests by the "Red Shirt" opposition movement -- which was seeking immediate elections -- left more than 90 people dead, mostly civilians.

At the height of the crisis, Abhisit proposed holding a poll in November 2010 to resolve the stand-off, but abandoned the plan because demonstrators refused to disperse.

The Red Shirts view Abhisit's government as undemocratic because it came to power in a 2008 parliamentary vote with the backing of the military after a court ruling threw out the previous administration.

The red-clad movement, which is broadly loyal to fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, has held a series of peaceful one-day rallies in the capital in recent weeks.

They are planning another major gathering on Saturday to mark the first anniversary of the start of last year's demonstration.

One Red Shirt leader who was recently freed on bail after nine months in detention on terrorism charges said popular uprisings in the Middle East had galvanised the movement.

"The wind of change that's blowing through the Arab world is re-energising the Red Shirts who are still hurting and tired from fighting last time. But the fight will go on," Nattawut Saikuar said in an interview with AFP.

Abhisit faces a no-confidence debate in parliament next week. The opposition has little chance of winning as it lacks a majority in the lower house, but the debate is set to serve as the start of the election battle.

"The opposition is ready for the poll even though it's late, so after the censure debate we will unveil more candidates and go to meet people in the countryside to hear their problems," said Pormpong Nopparit, a spokesman for the main opposition party Puea Thai.

But he voiced concern that the election might not be allowed to proceed because the Democrats are facing possible defeat due to economic troubles.

The military constantly looms in the background of Thailand, which has seen 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932, when the country became a constitutional monarchy.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-03-11

[Thailand]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

[ChiangMaiFun]

about time!

[timekeeper]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

[Emptyset]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

Suranand doesn't think that's likely, but he's not confident of a PT majority either:

[Thailand]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

I think it will still be very close , and the reds may be kicking themselves for not going for it last year when it was offered when I think they had a good opportunity to win .

[tig28]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

I suspect the Dems shall gain a minority victory.

-- but don't forget the of air certain victory surrounding the Democrats prior to the the most recent elections.of 2006. Every poll--- every newspaper -----every expert --- declared the Dems a certainty ......

.

--- and the result was:

Democrats:166 seats

PPP : 226 seats

[truethailand]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

Reds will get 40-50 more seats than the Dems... and then its upto which money buys best allegiance. Never count Thaksin out, only a fool would do that. Even if the reds can form some patched up coalition you can be sure the courts will find a way to disband them.

[truethailand]

Good move with the reds in disarray and virtually rudderless and leaderless.

agreed, i look forward to a landslide Dems victory

I think it will still be very close , and the reds may be kicking themselves for not going for it last year when it was offered when I think they had a good opportunity to win .

If there is such a thing as a 'floating voter' in Thailand, most will vote red this time, dead and maimed bodies have shown people the lengths that the powers of this country will go to so they can stay in the trough. Dems will not make one gain from a seat won by Pheau Thai last time.. Bet on it.. but the PT will make gains form dem strongholds, if not winning seats getting a greater share of the vote. Pressed I would say that there will not be an election because the army does not want a civillian government for at least the next 2 years

[jdinasia]

There will be elections this summer --- barring a third year of redshirt Songkran violence.

Strangely people are missing the relevant results of the recent by-elections that did not go well at all for PTP/Red shirts. People that aren't PAD and aren't UDD/PTP won't be swinging to UDD/PTP. The DO remember the violence of 2010 and they place the blame on those that started it, the reds (for the second year in a row), and now that the red-shirt stage leaders are going to be running under the PTP banner they can't just write it off to being Jatuporn and Jaran. They have to own the Thaksin=UDD=Red shirt formula totally and that is just too much for most Thais.

We'll know how afraid the reds are of elections by seeing how violent they are this Songkran. If they act up again it will be because they NEED to get an election postponed.

[janverbeem]

There will be elections this summer --- barring a third year of redshirt Songkran violence.

Songkran is in 4 weeks isn't it?You think the announcement will even make them consider for a single moment to refrain from violence this songkran.They will demand that the parliament need to dissolved one month earlier as announced or use any other poor excuse.

[jdinasia]

There will be elections this summer --- barring a third year of redshirt Songkran violence.

Songkran is in 4 weeks isn't it?You think the announcement will even make them consider for a single moment to refrain from violence this songkran.They will demand that the parliament need to dissolved one month earlier as announced or use any other poor excuse.

I expect a new round of violence because I think the reds are aware that they don't ever get to have Thaksin back by civil means (particularly after having made an issue of Abhisit being born with UK citizenship, when Thaksin accepted foreign citizenship as an adult!) but I would LOVE to be proven wrong. My friends in BKK are all planning time away from the city due to a belief that there will be more violence by the reds.

[Bagwan]

"It's about time for voters to decide what they really want," Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva told reporters.

I hope that the voters acquire enough nous to decide what they need - and vote accordingly.

[webfact]

PM sets timetable for possible June election

By Piyanart Srivalo,

Prapasri Osathanond,

Khanittha Theppajorn

The Nation

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said he planned to seek dissolution of the House of Representatives no later than the first week of May to allow early general elections that election commissioners said could take place in June.

The prime minister made it clear for the first time as to when he would dissolve the House, although he did not specify the date of general elections. Royal endorsement is required to complete the process of House dissolution.

Abhisit made the announcement after a meeting with Election Commission members at the EC headquarters during lunch yesterday.

According to the Constitution, a new general election must be held no sooner than 45 days and no later than 60 days after House dissolution.

Dissolution in May was one of the three scenarios presented by the EC at yesterday's meeting.

EC chairman Apichart Sukhagganond said that in this scenario, House dissolution would be made after Parliament passed changes to the electoral and relevant laws to be in line with the recent constitutional amendments involving provisions on election, such as changes in the number of constitutional and party-list MPs.

"In this scenario, House dissolution can take place in May so that the general elections are held in June or July," Apichart said.

The two other scenarios are immediate House dissolution - in which the organic law on elections would not be enacted in time - and House dissolution shortly before the government term ends in December, according to the election chief.

EC member Sodsri Satayathum said yesterday that given the prime minister's time frame, she expected the election to be held by June.

She said that dissolution in May would allow the three organic laws to be amended to be in line with the charter changes. This would prevent possible legal disputes that might arise in the future if the general elections went ahead without proper amendments to the relevant laws. "We want to ensure transparency and don't want problems to arise."

Abhisit said at Government House yesterday that he was aware that some coalition parties or fellow MPs might disagree with his decision about an early House dissolution. However, his intention was to hold an election before the House completes its four-year term in December.

"We should choose the right time to clear up any uncertainty or lack of clarity … I know you can never make any decision that pleases everybody," the prime minister said.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai Party secretary-general Supon Fong-ngam said yesterday that his opposition party was "100 per cent" ready for the general election. His remark came after the prime minister made it clear he would dissolve the House no later than the first week of May.

Supon said the government appeared to believe it had an upper hand over the opposition after running the country for two years. "But Pheu Thai sees that the government has failed over the past two years - particularly with rife corruption, economic problems and high prices of consumer products."

He expressed confidence that Pheu Thai would win the most House seats in the upcoming general election and form the next government.

-- The Nation 2011-03-12

[Emptyset]

We'll know how afraid the reds are of elections by seeing how violent they are this Songkran. If they act up again it will be because they NEED to get an election postponed.

Sean Boonpracong, the old UDD spokesman, put it to Pongthep & Suranand that many red shirts are losing confidence in the parliamentary system and might not bother voting all together.

[jayboy]

We'll know how afraid the reds are of elections by seeing how violent they are this Songkran. If they act up again it will be because they NEED to get an election postponed.

Sean Boonpracong, the old UDD spokesman, put it to Pongthep & Suranand that many red shirts are losing confidence in the parliamentary system and might not bother voting all together.

I don't really get the argument the reds are afraid of elections.In fact it doesn't make any sense.The elite has shown that it is not prepared to tolerate the choice of the Thai people unless it coincides with their own interests.Hence the criminal coup,the rigged constitution supplanting the excellent 1997 version, the "direction" given to the courts, heavy handed military and government propaganda, fatuous "philosophies" propagated to keep the majority in their place, support for the fascist PAD and its plan to disenfranchise the majority etc etc.Those who read history will know this already.In short it is the elite that's afraid of elections hence the record of trying to manipulate the outcome.

As it happens all the signs are that the Dems and PTP will be level pegging and one assumes the former will be able to stitch up a deal in time honoured fashion with Newin and the smaller parties.Dems also benefit from weak PTP leadership and the impressive Abhisit/Korn pairing.Above all, and noting Hammered's perceptive comment elsewhere on food prices, the economy is in good shape.I feel therefore the Dems will do better than last time and the PTP worse.Thus I dont see that the elite really has to do much at all this time since all the signs are the status quo will remain.

Incidentally, purely subjective of course but so are all opinions on this forum, I don't feel there is much resentment among most Thais at red "outrages".Those who feel angry are those who detested the Thaksinite/PPP/Red factions anyway.

Even if I'm right the outcome will result in a government very similar to the current one, none of the underlying problems will have been solved.So what's new?

[Emptyset]

I don't really get the argument the reds are afraid of elections.In fact it doesn't make any sense.The elite has shown that it is not prepared to tolerate the choice of the Thai people unless it coincides with their own interests.Hence the criminal coup,the rigged constitution supplanting the excellent 1997 version, the "direction" given to the courts, heavy handed military and government propaganda, fatuous "philosophies" propagated to keep the majority in their place, support for the fascist PAD and its plan to disenfranchise the majority etc etc.Those who read history will know this already.In short it is the elite that's afraid of elections hence the record of trying to manipulate the outcome.

I don't think they are afraid, but I think some are disenchanted with PT and some just think the election will be rigged, a little bit silly as the military have nowhere near the power they had to influence the last election. I agree with your other points, not sure I'd describe the PAD as "fascist" though, but ultra-nationalist and right-wing certainly.

As it happens all the signs are that the Dems and PTP will be level pegging and one assumes the former will be able to stitch up a deal in time honoured fashion with Newin and the smaller parties.Dems also benefit from weak PTP leadership and the impressive Abhisit/Korn pairing.Above all, and noting Hammered's perceptive comment elsewhere on food prices, the economy is in good shape.I feel therefore the Dems will do better than last time and the PTP worse.Thus I dont see that the elite really has to do much at all this time since all the signs are the status quo will remain.

Incidentally, purely subjective of course but so are all opinions on this forum, I don't feel there is much resentment among most Thais at red "outrages".Those who feel angry are those who detested the Thaksinite/PPP/Red factions anyway.

Even if I'm right the outcome will result in a government very similar to the current one, none of the underlying problems will have been solved.So what's new?

Pongthep says in part two of the FCCT videos I linked above that PT's polls show them winning 30 more seats than the Dems. That definitely won't be enough to win the election, as it means the results will be similar to the 2007 election, but with Newin's faction subtracted from the PT vote. They need to win at least 50 seats more than the Dems, which looks very difficult at the moment. It really depends how much money they have - about 5 - 6 billion according to what a source told the BP, which is similar to what the Dems will have so no advantage there, unless Thaksin decides to pump still more money in, which doesn't seem likely, given that he's apparently given them more than they had in 2007. It really depends on Newin, how much he decides he wants to put in, apparently he put in a lot more than PT did in the recent by-elections, but it's rumoured that he doesn't want to spend much on the coming election, for whatever reason. Maybe he doesn't think PT really have as much as they say they have to spend. And also, as Pongthep says in the video, it depends who the PT candidate for PM is - interesting, by the way, that he said him or her, just being equal opportunities or was he indicating Yingluck is perhaps the chosen one? If it's Mingkwan I don't see them doing anything too special, because though it seems he's not a bad guy, he's got little charisma and seems a bit lightweight and flaky to me.

The economy might be in "good shape", i.e. investment and growth, but majority of voters will be more concerned about how much money is in their pocket and whether they can afford to buy necessities or not. One reason for Thaksin's popularity was he got lucky with the global economy and voters felt like they had a lot of spare cash in their pocket. GDP growth is simply an abstraction when it comes down to it.

I agree with you on the "red outrages" thing though, as discussed in the other thread. Seems that the ones that I read, on Facebook for instance, still furious about the red uprising (other than the red shirts) are the people who hated Thaksin with a passion before the red rallies even began, and dedicate a significant proportion of their time to hating him and all those associated with him. Perhaps with good reason, but... mind you a lot of middle class types seem to never discuss politics but then become furious all other again when they hear another red rally.

So those are the people that'll never vote PT, although they're not the majority, I don't think.