Batten Down The Hatches

[seeker108]

Here is a recent news post from George, in case you have not seen it yet.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=45782

Best to be prepared, but hopefully it will not be as bad as predicted.

Here is the latest satellite view and you can click in the lower left corner to see its' movement during the past few hours.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busi...er/map/THXX0003

Good luck all!

Seeker

[seeker108]

Here is the latest from george. Not looking good.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...15entry489588

Strongest typhoon in 30 years hits Hainan Island

The strongest typhoon hit southern China's Hainan island in more than 30 years early Monday, sending residents scattering for shelter and endangering crops of rice, rubber and bananas.

Typhoon Damrey made landfall north of Hainan's Wanning City Sunday with wind speeds of up to 198 kph, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

It was the island's strongest typhoon since September 1973.

--The Nation 2005-09-26

Also, it looks to me like it will be affecting CM sooner than Wednesday.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busi...er/map/THXX0003

[seeker108]

I hope the appropriate officials have the sense to do a constant, SMALL, controlled release, starting right away.

[Jai Dee]

Two articles from thaisnews.com ประจำวันอาทิตย์ที่ 25 กันยายน 2548 that you may be interested in...

TYPHOON ‘DAMREY’ IS EXPECTED TO HIT THAILAND’S NORTH AND NORTHEAST SOON

The Meteorological Department has issued an announcement warning people in the north and northeast of another violent tropical storm named ‘Damrey’. The storm is expected to hit the areas soon.

Typhoon ‘Damrey’ is currently located at the latitude 19 degrees north and longitude 113 degrees east, centred in the South China Sea about 230 kilometres from Hainan Island. With the maximum epicentre speed of 120 kilometres per hour, it is moving in a westerly direction and expected to bring heavy precipitation to Thailand. Residents in the north and northeast, especially in the upper northern and upper north-eastern areas, are being urged to be on the lookout for possible dangers.

They must be in full preparation for sudden flooding and flash flood as well as rivers’ overflow and inundation over the next couple of days from September 26th to 29th. At the same time, as waves and winds in Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand is getting stronger, special care for fishing vessels is highly recommended.

GOVT IS ACCELERATING DRAINING FLOODWATER AND SUPPRESSING DEFORESTATION IN CHIANG MAI

Following the second round flooding in CHIANG MAI Province, the government is urgently improving the water drainage channels in PING (ปิง) River and attempting to suppress deforestation.

Prime Minister THAKSIN SHINAWATRA said in his weekly radio address that, during his visit to CHAING MAI Province, he had taken a chance to observe the flood situation. During that time, there were consecutive rainfalls in many districts of the province, leading to the overflowing of water in MAE PING River. From his observation, a major cause came from the problem found in the river’s water drainage channels. Some areas of the river are shallow and narrow, resulting in a slowdown of flowing current. Most importantly, deforestation has been found in a wide range of area of CHIANG MAI.

Therefore, the Prime Minister has called for cooperation from local people to help protect and conserve forest resources. He added that he has realized the significance of deforestation problem and would take care of this problem by himself.

[seeker108]

It looks like CM has had good luck this time and will be spared the worst of this one as it is heading more northerly at this point.

[wimpy]

It looks to me like there is still a significant amount of moisture heading towards Northern Thailand. I'm no expert though.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display...MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[seeker108]

It looks to me like there is still a significant amount of moisture heading towards Northern Thailand.  I'm no expert though.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display...MOSAIC_SCALE=15

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hmm, right you are. It looks different from 12 hours ago in that even though the core of the storm is passing further north, it sure is drawing in a lot of moisture from the southwest that will be dragged across Thailand. I guess the jury is still out on how much rain CM and upriver will get.

Good luck!

[Jai Dee]

7 day forecast (in English) here.

[ThaiPauly]

Can one assume from the forecast that things are not going to be as bad as first thought? I am no weatherman, and I dont have to be one to know we have had no rain yet, when according to forecasts as far as I can make out the rain should have started yesterday!

[seeker108]

Pretty quiet in the CM forum today. How was/is the rain/flooding?

[mumbojumbo]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/main.html

good storm tracker site here

[JuniorExPat]

Pretty quiet in the CM forum today.  How was/is the rain/flooding?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The army have been very busy over the last 24 hours or so building up the sand bags along the riverside and also putting earth banks in place.

The local loudspeakers are still precicting a serious flood - talk of 7 metres as opposed to the 5 (I think) that we had in the first bad flood.

The main topic of conversation around our village and at the family place is Toxin's directive to open all the floodgates/locks (?) along the Ping to allow that water to flow straight through without restriction - most people seem very concerned about how much of their land and property would be swept away by such a flow of water.

The rain started last night but in a very British drizzle style and is still coming down right now but with no great force.

I stayed up later than normal last night thinking that the storm would be quite something to watch, glad I gave in to the temptation of a comfy mattress(!). What I did find quite amazing though was the very bright sheet lightning that lit up the sky followed by about 10 seconds of silence and then 20 seconds plus of thunder - I have never heard thunder like that before. However, it is fair to say that I have a habit of sleeping through earthquake tremors, storms and floods!

That's about as much of an update that this man on the ground can give!

JxP

[bggg]

They have blocked many of the bridges over the canal road with sandbags, including Huay Kaew at canal. Looks like they are preparing to release water from somewhere into the canal. Anyone have news of whats happening to the north of us?

[The_Doctor]

Just popped on to see if anyone had any info...

I've heard the flood is coming in 4 hours (i.e. around 6pm) as another dam has burst upstream + lots of rain in Mae Hong Son area on its way down...

Sounded a bit exaggerated and melodramatic, but who would take the risk?

The thunder last night was something!

[cmsally]

There has been serious amounts of rain to the north of CM, especially Phrao, where the bridge has collapsed/washed away so no direct access to CM. Also heard of bad flash floods in Mae Taeng and flooding in Fang - but don't know details.

In CM Land and other places this morning people were not just putting out sandbags but building walls in front of doors and openings up to about waist height.

Best idea to switch on radio and listen but sounds like we should expect Ping River to rise this evening/night.

Seriously think I should invest in some kind of boat!

[cmsally]

!!!!!! This is no joke heard it on the radio 2 mins ago. A dam has burst in Mae Taeng and 2 million cubic metres or whatever 2 million luk bat met is in English, is heading for Chiang mai. Going to put cars on high ground etc etc etc even though never flooded before - this is serious. Apparently we have approx 4hrs till it gets here., better to be prepared.

[Gonzo the Face]

!!!!!!  This is no joke heard it on the radio 2 mins ago. A dam has burst in Mae Taeng and 2 million cubic metres or whatever 2 million luk bat met is in English, is heading for Chiang mai. Going to put cars on high ground etc etc etc even though never flooded before - this is serious.  Apparently we have approx 4hrs till it gets here., better to be prepared.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Was this radio by any chance "Radio Bangkok" if so we are all already dead as news reports are recorded and are usually a day or two old.

If this is a fact CM Sally then I think the city govt finally would have the sense to call out sound trucks and there would be more on the other stations trying to save all the lives that will be lost if what you say has happened. I have heard nothing in the city.

In the US there are laws against hollering fire in a theater. One should really check out the facts before just passing on rumors.

[JuniorExPat]

!!!!!!  This is no joke heard it on the radio 2 mins ago. A dam has burst in Mae Taeng and 2 million cubic metres or whatever 2 million luk bat met is in English, is heading for Chiang mai. Going to put cars on high ground etc etc etc even though never flooded before - this is serious.  Apparently we have approx 4hrs till it gets here., better to be prepared.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Was this radio by any chance "Radio Bangkok" if so we are all already dead as news reports are recorded and are usually a day or two old.

If this is a fact CM Sally then I think the city govt finally would have the sense to call out sound trucks and there would be more on the other stations trying to save all the lives that will be lost if what you say has happened. I have heard nothing in the city.

In the US there are laws against hollering fire in a theater. One should really check out the facts before just passing on rumors.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I haven't heard the announcements myself but through the family grapevine I have been told that the loudspeakers in Nong Hoi are confirming cmsally's news.

Looks like it's going to be a full house at our place tonight!

JxP

[cmsally]

In the US there are laws against hollering fire in a theater. One should really check out the facts before just passing on rumors.

Sorry ! didn't want to pass on any rumours, but that's what I heard exactly on local radio. Reports are a bit confusing as some saying its bad and some saying not so bad. Seems definite that resorvoir burst in Mae taeng but various radio reports have that water coming down anywhere from Sansai to Muang to Sanpatong ! But I guess better to be prepared. Radio station giving out reports is 92.5 FM

[stateman]

Manager.com reports at 10am on September 28, 2005 that a reservoir in Amphur MaeTang failed. 800 homes flooded and suffered heavy damage. Prajum reservoir failed after heavy rain in Chiangmai from Domray.

Mr. Utai Paelai, deputy sheriff of Maetang said contact for cooperation has been made to Chiangmai’s Prevention and Public Danger Relief Unit to seek 5 flat-bottom boats to help rescue the home owners; in addition to the 1 flat-bottom boat already deployed. Water level was reported to be almost 2 meters high, due to the area being in a plain.

The news in Thai may be found at: http://www.manager.co.th/Local/ViewNews.as...D=9480000132789

[ovenman]

My Thai friends heard the same news on the radio. Not really clear as to what burst and exactly where, but I guess the upshot is that a bunch of water is heading south along the Ping towards Chiang Mai.

[stateman]

The news account above doesn't say exactly where the reservoir is, relative to the Mae Taeng Amphur and River. But it probably is fair to assume that it is part of the Mae Taeng River.

I recalled reading from another posting about DAM and the Ping River elsewhere in this forum, Mae Taeng River water ocntribute to both the Ping River and the Irrigation Canal.

So whether the failed reservoir will affect the Ping River or the Irrigation Canal, it is not clear.

Either way, it seems prudent to take this news seriously and prepare for worse, unless proven otherwise later.

[taxexile]

800 homes flooded and suffered heavy damage.

to seek 5 flat-bottom boats to help rescue the home owners; in addition to the 1 flat-bottom boat already deployed.

[lamphun]

I'm told it's the Mae Ngat Dam which is the big one east of Mae taeng. All the villages mentioned on the site are below that dam.

[stateman]

Breaking News from http://www.komchadluek.net/

http://202.60.196.117/breaking/read.php?lang=th&newsid=84562

reports that:

This morning (September 28), MaePaJum reservoir in Tambol Mae Hor Pra, Amphur Mae Taeng, Chiangmai was damaged by raging waters at the top which has a height of over 20 meters. A section over 20 meters long was broken, causing water in the reservoir to rush toward houses in 5 villages in Tambon Mae Hor Pra. Flood water height varies between 50cm. to 1 meter. One person was lost to the water current. Latest, the water level has receded in the afternoon. However, there is still a wide area of sitting water along Ban Par Lao Road.

At Mae Ngud Dam, a bridge end was damaged and severed from raging water and become impassible.

[cmsally]

Tesabahn says Chiang Mai should be prepared for flooding between 8pm-midnight.

I think basically no one is sure how bad and how much water but friends tell me still heavy rain in Phrao and Chiang Dao. Just better to be prepared - not like the first time when my friends car literally floated away and other people lost computers, fridges etc etc because they weren't prepared.

I have heard reports that Mae Ngad dam is OK but everyone getting worried with the constant rain.

[mumbojumbo]

Tesabahn says Chiang Mai should be prepared for flooding between 8pm-midnight.

I think basically no one is sure how bad and how much water but friends tell me still heavy rain in Phrao and Chiang Dao. Just better to be prepared - not like the first time when my friends car literally floated away and other people lost computers, fridges etc etc because they weren't prepared.

I have heard reports that Mae Ngad dam is OK but everyone getting worried with the constant rain.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Chiangrai now raining hard-headed your way

[stateman]

http://www.manager.co.th/Local/ViewNews.as...D=9480000132731

Chiangmai seems to get another flood. – Inability to close the Mae Ngud dam

Chiangmai: Chiangmai folks are preparing for flood (again) after attempt to close (the floodgate) of the Mae Ngud dam failed. Water had to be released continuously while the dam’s water exceeded capacity.

As Chiangmai and Irrigation Office No. 1 have been releasing water from the Mae Ngud Dam since September 23, 2005 at the rate of 160 cubic meters a second. The plan was to reduce the water in the dam to 80-90% of capacity, then to stop the release. This was to prepare for new water from Domray Storm. Besides Mae Ngud Dam needs to release the water collected from the 3 previous storms, which brought the water to a critical level.

At the latest, at 8.50am, reporter called officials at the Dam, and was told the Dam can no longer take any more water. In late night of September 27, 2005, there had been raging water from Amphur Prao in large quantity flowing to the dam; while water was released at the rate of 86 cubic meters a second. However more water may be released (from the dam) if more water from Amphur Prao continues to inflow.

The reporter reported that currently flash flood has flooded areas of Amphur Prao, flooding a number of residences. Flash flood has also severed Chiangmai-Prao road, cutting off all vehicular traffic. The sheriff department and other involved organizations already have ugently sent officials to help.

-----------------------------

Stateman's note: above was a direct translation from the Thai media news. It seems that those water from Prao (and there seems to be plenty of heavy rain in Prao!) may be expected to flow-through to Chiangmai soon, as the news reported that officials were unable to close the dam (dam's flood gate. They even expected to release more water southward from the dam toward Chiangmai.

There are also water coming from the west via the MaeTaeng river (from Chiang Dao-Mae Hong Son border area). Then there are water from the reservoir in Mae Taeng which overflowed the breached top of the reservoir.

I hope it won't be worse than the previous flood in Chiangmai. But it does seem worrisome!

Hope these information translated from the Thai news media is helpful.

Good luck, folks!

[Gonzo the Face]

Maybe someone can help and clarify for me:

If the Floodgate at the dam was opened on the 23rd, to reduce the reservoir capacity to 80-90 % [then would be closed] but 'got stuck open' and has been open for 5 days, and we hadn't any serious rain until last night, didn't we long or days ago pass the 80 - 90 % desired closing point, to find out the gate wouldn't close? If that were the case I would think that the lever of capacity before last nights rain would be somewhere below 80%.

If the dam were releasing water at that volume, to be a threat now , water would have to come in at a spectacular volume in a very few hours. And if the statement was made that water from 3 past storms were now the problem, why were they trying to close the floodgate.

??

[stateman]

Maybe someone can help and clarify for me:

If the Floodgate at the dam was opened on the 23rd, to reduce the reservoir capacity to 80-90 % [then would be closed] but 'got stuck open' and has been open for 5 days, and we hadn't any serious rain until last night, didn't we long or days ago pass the 80 - 90 % desired closing point, to find out the gate wouldn't close?  If that were the case I would think that the lever of capacity before last nights rain would be somewhere below 80%.

If the dam were releasing water at that volume, to be a threat now , water would have to come in at a spectacular volume in a very few hours.  And if the statement was made that water from 3 past storms were now the problem,  why were they trying to close the floodgate.

??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am not sure if anyone can help clarifyt it for you. But I’ll try as a reader of the article. My take is the floodgate was opened since the 23rd, to release water which accumulated from the previous 3 events -with the goal to keep only 80-90% of capacity.

We don’t know how much 160 cubic meters a second means relative to the percentage of the reservoir capacity. We also don’t know how often they adjust the opening of the floodgate to control the rate of flow. Logic would suggest that the gate would be opened to a varying degree, rather than to keep it wide open. In this case, the reporter made a phone call to talk to the official. I suspect that it was a relative short conversation, without getting into much details. Maybe the official has something better to do than to talk at length on the phone when there were tasks to do.

Anyway, in late night of September 27, 2005, lots of water was coming in. Apparently it filled up the reservoir. They had to release water at the rate of 86 cubic meters a second.

Could it be that they meant to reduce the water in the reservior to 80-90% capacity, close the floodgate, and let the normal flow from Damrey fill it to capacity. But before they could close the floodgate, a deluge already took place, at a rate highter than their expectation, so they had to open the floodgate even more, to handle to large inflow? There were many details not mentioned in the articles, which I think the reporter either didn’t know or didn’t see the need to get into.

If you live close by, you may drive to the dam and get more details after the water recedes; and post on this