Buffett Bearish On Bucks

[Jingthing]

Warren Buffett that is, not Buffet.

Not surprising news, really, but more confirmation on the rather obvious.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-dollar-less-almighty-big-investors-see-possible-long-term-currency-weakness/2011/04/19/AFxVaKLE_story.html

If you ask me if the U.S. dollar is going to hold its purchasing power fully at the level of 2011 five years, 10 years or 20 years from now, I would tell you it will not.”

I think it's time for the USA to offer a retirement visa for foreigners who wish to retire in a cheap currency country.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Jingthing

[el jefe]

I can't argue with the logic that the US dollar will be lower against the baht 5, 10, or 20 years from now.

But I think that would only lead to more US expats living here, not less. While it will certainly cost more to live here in the future than it does now, the cost to live in America will rise too. There are plenty of Americans living in Thailand now on their Social Security checks. As long as they've saved enough to go home for their emergency medical care that will be covered by Medicare/Medicaid, I can't see how it will be cheaper to live in the US than in Thailand. That should lead to an increase in American expats, especially in the less expensive Thai cities like Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai.

[midas]

I can't argue with the logic that the US dollar will be lower against the baht 5, 10, or 20 years from now.

But I think that would only lead to more US expats living here, not less. While it will certainly cost more to live here in the future than it does now, the cost to live in America will rise too. There are plenty of Americans living in Thailand now on their Social Security checks. As long as they've saved enough to go home for their emergency medical care that will be covered by Medicare/Medicaid, I can't see how it will be cheaper to live in the US than in Thailand. That should lead to an increase in American expats, especially in the less expensive Thai cities like Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai.

And Marc Faber ( coincidentally also a resident of Chiang Mai ) warns USA may not be a good place to hold gold ...........

Marc Faber: The Dollar's Value In The Future Will Be Zero

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-the-dollars-value-in-the-future-will-be-zero-2011-4#ixzz1KKNZ2rRf

[CWMcMurray]

I often joke that I will make my money in Thailand and then retire in the US....

I am actually only half kidding, as this may be a real option.

If I make my money in THB and continue to invest in the SET and trends continue, it is very possible that by the time I retire (30 years from now) it really may be...

[Jingthing]

Foreclosed properties in the US are quite tempting if you've got the cash. Historically cheap, great depression cheap.

[TenCent]

can you help me?

I would love to buy a Farm in southern USA for maximum 100.000 USD - where to search in the Internet?

[craigt3365]

One post suggesting violence has been removed.

[midas]

Foreclosed properties in the US are quite tempting if you've got the cash. Historically cheap, great depression cheap.

Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economist who is the author of “Irrational Exuberance” and who helped develop the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, put himself in this last group. Mr. Shiller said in a conference call on Tuesday that he saw “a substantial risk” of the market falling another 15, 20 or even 25 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/business/economy/23housing.html

[jackdawson]

Social Security

like that program is going to exist for much longer

Medicare/Medicaid

ditto

[jazzbo]

Not so good for the US codgers here in Thailand but from the same The Washington Post article as above:

A weak dollar isn’t necessarily a bad thing, (former IMF Chief Economist and Harvard Economics Professor) Rogoff said — it can make the United States more competitive, bolster exports and help domestic companies that are vying against imported goods here in the United States.

[craigt3365]

I think it's not only the USD that is in trouble...most major currencies are having issues.

[Schooner]

US property has already lost about 50% in Florida from the peak and I still think that they have a ways to go to reach a sustainable level based on peoples adjusted income.

I made a bundle in the 80's on the bubble then but I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole now.

The stock market is a casino IMO and the only one making money is the risk takers. I remember reading a investment book by some Princeton Economist who actually blindfolded a monkey and had him throw darts and it produced a better return than the "experts"

I don't know how anyone can predict what is going to happen, there are just too many competing forces.

[Phil Conners]

I think it's not only the USD that is in trouble...most major currencies are having issues.

Agree. The old elite - USA, Europe and Japan is declining. The coming elite is Asia and South America, particularly China, India and Brazil.

[kerryk]

US property has already lost about 50% in Florida from the peak and I still think that they have a ways to go to reach a sustainable level based on peoples adjusted income.

I made a bundle in the 80's on the bubble then but I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole now.

The stock market is a casino IMO and the only one making money is the risk takers. I remember reading a investment book by some Princeton Economist who actually blindfolded a monkey and had him throw darts and it produced a better return than the "experts"

I don't know how anyone can predict what is going to happen, there are just too many competing forces.

Buffet also says, "home ownership makes sense for most Americans, particularly at today’s lower prices and bargain interest rates."  He literally raved about home ownership, saying that "the third best investment I ever made was the purchase of my home."

Florida homes are down by 10 to 20% in the past year depending on the city and a few places are up in listing prices.

So I guess Buffet is saying real estate valuation will increase more than the dollar will decrease.

Information from Trulia, a real estate valuation site.

[EdDantes]

<snip>

A weak dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing, (former IMF Chief Economist and Harvard Economics Professor) Rogoff said — it can make the United States more competitive, bolster exports and help domestic companies that are vying against imported goods here in the United States.

So China protects the value of its treasury holdings and undermines US competitiveness by supporting the US dollar.

Might the US run the presses until this tactic is undone?

[Schooner]

Up to you. I keep an eye on Maine and Florida and both are continuing to drop because equilibrium is what people can afford and sustain. Having said that there is no doubt in my mind that the next great bubble is just around the corner and we will be off to the races again.

I like buffett but he is a businessman who knows the power of his words and his ability to effect markets.

[cloudhopper]

One post suggesting violence has been removed.

My apologies for breaking forum rules. Please allow me to re-phrase-

Buffet is a crony insider of the neo-fascist elite and should be ignored. His forecast is merely an extrapolation of the trend of the declining domestic purchasing power of the US dollar that has been more or less constant ever since the creation of the Fed. The USD exchange rate vs foreign currencies has been and will be variable, and the Euro, Yen, and whatever Charmin they use in Brazil are just as likely to devalue against the USD over the next few years IMO. The USD will expire someday though, no doubt to be replaced by some new currency, but not before the currency of every country relying on exporting to the West.

[Naam]

the Euro, Yen, and whatever Charmin they use in Brazil are just as likely to devalue against the USD over the next few years IMO

LO AND BEHOLD! water will run uphill, wives will force husbands to acquire mia nois and manna will rain from the skies :jap:

[Jingthing]

I wouldn't simplify Buffett's politics. I recall he has been very vocal in favor of large tax increases on America's wealthy. Not exactly a corporate power elite position.

[cloudhopper]

the Euro, Yen, and whatever Charmin they use in Brazil are just as likely to devalue against the USD over the next few years IMO

LO AND BEHOLD! water will run uphill, wives will force husbands to acquire mia nois and manna will rain from the skies :jap:

I didn't say that it will happen, but it could. China, Japan and the EU own a huge amount of UST and exports to the US are a significant part of their GNP so they, along with many others with significant USD holdings or trade, have no interest in a declining USD. Many independent global political policies and events will ultimately be the forces driving the market rates, and they are wholly unpredictable. It will be a race to the bottom with many lead changes along the way to financial armageddon.

[dananderson]

Here is an interactive(depending on your server speed-mine is slow now due to weather here) chart from CNN money displaying the 10 or so largest economies,gdp,debt, inflation etc. http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/g20/interactive/

[12DrinkMore]

I didn't say that it will happen, but it could. China, Japan and the EU own a huge amount of UST and exports to the US are a significant part of their GNP so they, along with many others with significant USD holdings or trade, have no interest in a declining USD. Many independent global political policies and events will ultimately be the forces driving the market rates, and they are wholly unpredictable. It will be a race to the bottom with many lead changes along the way to financial armageddon.

If the Chinese, for example, let the Yuan appreciate against the USD, reducing their import costs and benefiting the population by lower prices it would mark down the Yuan value of their central bank's massive holding of UST's. But would that markdown make any difference? Am I mistaken in thinking that, provided the benefits of letting the Yuan appreciate filter through to the general public, then it is a transfer of accumulated (and confiscated wealth) wealth from the central bank back to the Chinese worker, who should have been paid it in the first place?

[12DrinkMore]

Here is an interactive(depending on your server speed-mine is slow now due to weather here) chart from CNN money displaying the 10 or so largest economies,gdp,debt, inflation etc. http://money.cnn.com...20/interactive/

Bloody hell! Oh begorra begorra!

Time to get back into Ireland in a huge way!!!! STOP, all you Irish lads and lasses leaving the country in droves, get BACK! Cancel the tickets!

How the &lt;deleted&gt; is Ireland up there at the top with almost double figure growth for the next five years??????

[cloudhopper]

I didn't say that it will happen, but it could. China, Japan and the EU own a huge amount of UST and exports to the US are a significant part of their GNP so they, along with many others with significant USD holdings or trade, have no interest in a declining USD. Many independent global political policies and events will ultimately be the forces driving the market rates, and they are wholly unpredictable. It will be a race to the bottom with many lead changes along the way to financial armageddon.

If the Chinese, for example, let the Yuan appreciate against the USD, reducing their import costs and benefiting the population by lower prices it would mark down the Yuan value of their central bank's massive holding of UST's. But would that markdown make any difference? Am I mistaken in thinking that, provided the benefits of letting the Yuan appreciate filter through to the general public, then it is a transfer of accumulated (and confiscated wealth) wealth from the central bank back to the Chinese worker, who should have been paid it in the first place?

I don't know. I also don't know if the Yuan would even appreciate against the USD if the Chicoms ever let be freely traded on the open market. They have created a massive amount of currency to maintain their mercantilist policies, they have created a massive amount of credit to build empty cities and empty shopping malls and when it all comes to an end they will face the same choices as everyone else - bail out their banks with even more printing or suffer a massive deflationary burst as unrepayable debt goes unpaid.

[WyattEarp]

Here is an interactive(depending on your server speed-mine is slow now due to weather here) chart from CNN money displaying the 10 or so largest economies,gdp,debt, inflation etc. http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/g20/interactive/

Maybe a little OT but it is interesting how CNN compares the European economies as individual countries but the US states as one entity. In fact the EU economy is almost as large as the United States and China combined, but perhaps that's not the picture CNN wants to present.

[cloudhopper]

In fact the EU economy is almost as large as the United States and China combined,

Hmmm is that in fact a fact?

[Phil Conners]

In fact the EU economy is almost as large as the United States and China combined,

Hmmm is that in fact a fact?

According to this Reuters article at least it was one year ago.

[Naam]

In fact the EU economy is almost as large as the United States and China combined,

Hmmm is that in fact a fact?

it is!

[Jingthing]

Well speak of the devil dollar!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-value-of-the-dollar-five-factors-for-investors/2011/04/19/AFDdTwWE_story.html

The value of the dollar: Five factors for investors

In the land of the blind . . . There are four major currency blocs — the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. With so many factors against it, why would anyone want to own U.S. dollars? Because, well, it’s the least ugly currency of the lot.

Edited April 24, 2011 by Jingthing

[craigt3365]

Here is an interactive(depending on your server speed-mine is slow now due to weather here) chart from CNN money displaying the 10 or so largest economies,gdp,debt, inflation etc. http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/g20/interactive/

Maybe a little OT but it is interesting how CNN compares the European economies as individual countries but the US states as one entity. In fact the EU economy is almost as large as the United States and China combined, but perhaps that's not the picture CNN wants to present.

I know one issue is there is no central bank. And each entity in the EU is a sovereign country. Unlike the US where there is one central government and one central bank.