An Exciting Time To Be A Conspiracy Theorist: Thai Opinion

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STOPPAGE TIME

An exciting time to be a conspiracy theorist

By Tulsathit Taptim

Okay, it's conspiracy theories time. I'm not here to discount or inflame any of them, and will only share with you information and speculation passing through our newsroom.

You can choose what to believe. All I can guarantee is that while there seem to be hidden agendas everywhere else, here we don't have any ulterior motive. You will be getting our honest assessments of the situations.

The question on everyone's mind is, "Why now?" Why the gunfire, artillery fire and bombs rattling the Thai-Cambodian border again all of a sudden? To that, nobody has the real answer, and even Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa knows this much for certain: Abhisit Vejjajiva and Hun Sen had better hurry. The two leaders must talk now before it's too late.

I'd like to add that if Abhisit and Hun Sen don't want to do so for peace's sake, then it should be for sanity's sake. The latest claims emerging from the Thai yellow shirts' camp - that the border clashes are a conspiracy to draw Thai troops to the border so they will be too pre-occupied to stage a coup - have been bettered by Noppadol Pattama's reaction. As if it was necessary, the close aide to Thaksin Shinawatra has come out to publicly deny that his boss was in Cambodia to command Cambodian troops at the border.

That's how far things have gone. In addition to anxiety caused by the border tension, Thais are being told that everything is not what they think it is. Last week's satellite malfunction that resulted in blank TV screens nationwide was purportedly not a technical error, but a well-executed warning to the Thai military that if they plot a coup, they won't have any channel to broadcast it on. We have been hearing "coup" left, right and centre.

Time magazine has its own inconclusive who-will-benefit theory. Apparently, the Thai Army is not "distracted" by events at the border, but the clashes are something our generals will jump in order to keep themselves important. Time, quoting Thai sources, stopped short of claiming the Thai Army started the war for a dark purpose, pointing out that the border showdown is benefiting Hun Sen politically, too.

Our analysis is that the border clashes involved calculated moves by both sides. But although the territorial tension came hot on the heels of the Thaicom breakdown, both must be unrelated and neither smack of a coup prelude or counter-coup pre-emptive strike.

The leaders of both countries, who have directly or indirectly indicated they are ready to meet, must move fast and rise above politics. Of course, that's easier said than done, as all the signs indicate, including provocative comments from high-ranking officials. But they must try. The situation is simply getting out of hand, and anyone who thinks he's in control as far as the border issue goes is badly mistaken.

Here are key elements to consider as we address the question of why trouble has flared up again. First, new meetings on the Preah Vihear temple are coming up, the first one as early as next month, and as we all know, such forums are often preceded by worrisome incidents, to put it mildly. Secondly, tension had been steadily rising prior to the latest clashes after Thailand all but ruled out the role of neutral "observers" at the disputed areas.

The crux of the matter remains unchanged. Cambodia wants to go international about it, but the Thai government balks at that. Phnom Penh prefers neutral observers but Bangkok says no. Domestic politics is more or less influencing decision-making in both countries. Indonesia, an awkward mediator, is calling for an Abhisit-Hun Sen summit to take place as soon as possible, suggesting that if the situation continues this way, it could get too late very early.

Talk about postponing the Thai election, scheduled for late June or early July, grew louder yesterday. It was not entirely the border skirmishes that prompted the speculation, but the unprecedented taunts hurled from senior Thai Army and government officials against Cambodia. Recently, top Thai officials were mostly diplomatic, but now they have lost their cool. "This won't end easily" seems to be the message to replace the usual "We are trying our best to keep the peace" statements from officials. If you think the Democrats are trying to hold on to power, that's another conspiracy theory there.

But maybe the real reasons are the simplest ones. Both countries are engaging with rifles, rockets and bombs probably because they don't want to lose advantage at future negotiating tables. There must be war before peace can prevail, right? History shows it has always been that way.

-- The Nation 2011-04-28

[virtualtraveller]

Like his buddy Thaksin, Hun Sen's timing is always impeccable. It's hard to see this latest flare up as co-incidence, given the forthcoming ASEAN meeting, and Thai election, so it begs the question, who is most likely to want to start a border spat right now.

Now, if the Thai army hadn't been so proud, they would have let Indonesian observers in, making it very difficult for either side to be provocative.

And the reason Thailand is being so obstinate, as I see it, is that they are sick and tired of Hun Sen's games.

[animatic]

With neutral observers, it also can quickly show up WHO is starting skirmishes, including possible 3rd parties having little Special Forces type units there ready to touch off a battle, that BOTH sides can blame on the other.

Of course also Hun Sen's son is being let loose;

to 'make his bones' as a military leader.

Edited April 28, 2011 by animatic

[dunkin2012]

With neutral observers, it also can quickly show up WHO is starting skirmishes, including possible 3rd parties having little Special Forces type units there ready to touch off a battle, that BOTH sides can blame on the other.

Of course also Hun Sen's son is being let loose;

to 'make his bones' as a military leader.

I see the same thing...

and wonder why the Thai military denied the idea of border observer plan.................

that keeps me thinking of what are behind ..........the scene...

[ginjag]

With neutral observers, it also can quickly show up WHO is starting skirmishes, including possible 3rd parties having little Special Forces type units there ready to touch off a battle, that BOTH sides can blame on the other.

Of course also Hun Sen's son is being let loose;

to 'make his bones' as a military leader.

I see the same thing...

and wonder why the Thai military denied the idea of border observer plan.................

that keeps me thinking of what are behind ..........the scene...

I thought it was illegal to gamble in Thailand ?? a lot going on there !!! anyway if it's disputed land maybe you are allowed to gamble. But they forget they are doing it with peoples lives, but who cares about that here ????

[dunkin2012]

With neutral observers, it also can quickly show up WHO is starting skirmishes, including possible 3rd parties having little Special Forces type units there ready to touch off a battle, that BOTH sides can blame on the other.

Of course also Hun Sen's son is being let loose;

to 'make his bones' as a military leader.

I see the same thing...

and wonder why the Thai military denied the idea of border observer plan.................

that keeps me thinking of what are behind ..........the scene...

I thought it was illegal to gamble in Thailand ?? a lot going on there !!! anyway if it's disputed land maybe you are allowed to gamble. But they forget they are doing it with peoples lives, but who cares about that here ????

yep this one ......

there are a number of Casinos around ..... the border...............

The chief commander ,regional 2

might get huge money for looking after the people going to their casinos.........

possibly , things didn't work out right ..........

then..........

[givenall]

Like his buddy Thaksin, Hun Sen's timing is always impeccable. It's hard to see this latest flare up as co-incidence, given the forthcoming ASEAN meeting, and Thai election, so it begs the question, who is most likely to want to start a border spat right now.

Now, if the Thai army hadn't been so proud, they would have let Indonesian observers in, making it very difficult for either side to be provocative.

And the reason Thailand is being so obstinate, as I see it, is that they are sick and tired of Hun Sen's games.

Well one thing for sure, if the conflict continues then AhbisitGovernment should not have the election and then they can focus on the borderissue till it is resolved. In the meantime the country will go to the emergencymode and after all settles (will be settle for sure since Cambodia is in no positionto challenge Thai Army) Ahbisit Government will come out of this much strongerand more popular. But Ahbisit has to act more decisive than what he did withthe RED SHIRT issue

[MILT]

Like his buddy Thaksin, Hun Sen's timing is always impeccable. It's hard to see this latest flare up as co-incidence, given the forthcoming ASEAN meeting, and Thai election, so it begs the question, who is most likely to want to start a border spat right now.

Now, if the Thai army hadn't been so proud, they would have let Indonesian observers in, making it very difficult for either side to be provocative.

And the reason Thailand is being so obstinate, as I see it, is that they are sick and tired of Hun Sen's games.

I concur. It is quite possible that the Thai Government knows that Hun Sen might have a Toxic advisor.