Pheu Thai Maintains Lead In Bangkok

[bungalownights]

All the signs are for a PT win at the elections. First they picked "1" , the best number. Consistantly ahead in the polls, smaller parties all starting to suck up to PT, then a probably BKK win.

All the momentum is with PT.

Abhisit and Suthep K.O.

its just a matter of time.... and good riddance.

[Buchholz]

All the signs are for a PT win at the elections. First they picked "1" ,

An equally important sign with easily as much validity and credibility as picking a meaningless numeral.

Will PT win the election?

[whybother]

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

The fact that the entire centre of the capital city was held completely to ransom for a number of weeks, with authorities increasingly looking nervy, unsure and indecisive, and with a blood bath likely to ensue any minute. The atmosphere for those of us living in Bangkok was nerve-jangling.

The blood bath did come, but not to the extent many, including myself, feared it would. Had it been worse, had the reds stayed to fight instead of torching and fleeing, had the PM been physically attacked, possibly killed, as seemed a possibility when his car was attacked... well, i'm not sure what would have happened, or whether it would have meant civil war, but it certainly wouldn't have been pretty.

The other paper has Sanan stating that if the next government doesn't pursue national reconciliation, civil war may erupt.

On one side we have the PTP planning to bring back Thaksin and whitewash his crimes, and on the other side we have the Democrats ... running the country.

The PTP plans will not lead to reconciliation, and having the Democrats in government won't lead to reconciliation (basically because the red shirts just won't accept it).

How does the country move forward?

[jayboy]

[quote name='rixalex' timestamp='1307787343' post=

The fact that the entire centre of the capital city was held completely to ransom for a number of weeks, with authorities increasingly looking nervy, unsure and indecisive, and with a blood bath likely to ensue any minute. The atmosphere for those of us living in Bangkok was nerve-jangling.

The blood bath did come, but not to the extent many, including myself, feared it would. Had it been worse, had the reds stayed to fight instead of torching and fleeing, had the PM been physically attacked, possibly killed, as seemed a possibility when his car was attacked... well, i'm not sure what would have happened, or whether it would have meant civil war, but it certainly wouldn't have been pretty.

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

[bungalownights]

All the signs are for a PT win at the elections. First they picked "1" ,

An equally important sign with easily as much validity and credibility as picking a meaningless numeral.

Will PT win the election?

The Thais are a superstitious lot. They will interpret the 1 as an omen or "good karma", destiny etc.

[whybother]

The Thais are a superstitious lot. They will interpret the 1 as an omen or "good karma", destiny etc.

The party that got 9 should win easily then.

[Buchholz]

All the signs are for a PT win at the elections. First they picked "1" ,

An equally important sign with easily as much validity and credibility as picking a meaningless numeral.

Will PT win the election?

The Thais are a superstitious lot. They will interpret the 1 as an omen or "good karma", destiny etc.

They will interpret whatever they want out of the assignment of each individual party number.

There's a thread on how each party justifies precisely why their number is the most desirable one...

That yourself as a Westerner would start off your post off with that nonsense is laughable.

.

Edited June 11, 2011 by Buchholz

[geriatrickid]

Thailand will not have a civil war as the conditions are not there (yet). What is more likely is civil insurrection. Sure, both produce death and destruction, but a civil insurrection occurs when there is an an explosion of unrest with multiple expressions of discontent. A civil war is more likely when a group wishes to declare independence, or disengage from the country.

Pockets of unrest due to regional issues and disparities are more likely; The deep south with its usual issues, the Northeast with the poor rising up and Bangkok with the disenfranchised venting their frustration. Civil insurrections are easier to respond to in terms of the healing process. A civil war ends with a lost generation or two. Civil insurrections usually arise due to a flashpoint issue. Thai leaders are good at smothering flashpoints and of reaching a consensus that maintains the peace.

I don't think any regular Thai wants a civil war. All Thais share a common love of their nation. What many Thais want is change and that's a big difference from civil war. The yellow shirt seizures of the airport and government grounds, and the redshirt protests last year were a civil insurrection and were dealt with in a manner that contained what could have been a very violent and destructive event. Yes there were economic losses & death, but it was small when compared to what a civil war brings. Similar events are more likely than civii war. Thais are very western in their approach to civil war: Too lazy and of limited attention span to bother. One need only look at G-8, G-20 protests in the west. They get off to a roaring start, but by the end, the protestors get bored and upwards of half of them have left.

[hyperdimension]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

[rubl]

The Thais are a superstitious lot. They will interpret the 1 as an omen or "good karma", destiny etc.

The party that got 9 should win easily then.

Who cares about numbers? As long as I win the lottery ...

[rubl]

All the signs are for a PT win at the elections. First they picked "1" , the best number. Consistantly ahead in the polls, smaller parties all starting to suck up to PT, then a probably BKK win.

All the momentum is with PT.

Abhisit and Suthep K.O.

its just a matter of time.... and good riddance.

Over-confidence ? Time will tell

[Throatwobbler]

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation.

I like your confidence. I don't share it. Just last year the country came perilously close to completely disintegrating into chaos and disorder, and next time it does, 90 deaths might seem a low number.

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

I remember there was one report of a brief exchange of shots between soldiers and police, but for me it would take something on a far larger scale than that to really push the country to the brink of civil war. I can't see how it could happen unless the security forces themselves were disintegrating.

Having a few hundred people torching town halls in half a dozen provinces also isn't indicative of this country being on the brink, in my opinion.

Can you tell us where abouts abroad you were at the time to not notice? Can you not tell the politics and instability, the division of groups, the friction between police and army, and state of things is headed? It's clear that there will be some catastrophic events within the next two to three years.

He lives in Chiang Mai.

[473geo]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well support PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

Edited June 11, 2011 by 473geo

[rubl]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well vote PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

Following the same reasoning I can think of some 'more deserving' parties. Those of k. Chuwit and k. Purachai come to mind. Keep in mind not all people live in 'red villages'

Edited June 11, 2011 by rubl

[JurgenG]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well vote PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

Following the same reasoning I can think of some 'more deserving' parties. Those of k. Chuwit and k. Purachai come to mind. Keep in mind not all people live in 'red villages'

You're right, Khun Chuwit may be the right choice for the sexpats.

Seriously, is Abhisit that desperate ?

[ianf]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well support PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

No: many reds have been through so called training sessions where they have been taught what 'democracy ' is - including my mae bahn here in Chiang Mai. Many villagers are being intimidated into voting for the reds, including a very close family fried who removed a red flag that a villager put on his gatepost and then got abused for so doing.

This movement is larger than you think. I suggest that people read and digest the LandDestroyer blogs on the internet before posting on this issue. Also put Global into the search engines to find ut about the Global Colour Revolution which includes the reds in Thailand. Similar tactics have been used in the so called Arabian Spring revolts. Hey! Why do you think that Nato is downing Libya for 'attacking its own people' when Burma have been committing worse attrocities for years!

[rubl]

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well vote PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

Following the same reasoning I can think of some 'more deserving' parties. Those of k. Chuwit and k. Purachai come to mind. Keep in mind not all people live in 'red villages'

You're right, Khun Chuwit may be the right choice for the sexpats.

Seriously, is Abhisit that desperate ?

'sexpats' ? No offence, but if you can't write a serious reply, than please don't bother. For a while already k. Chuwit, whatever his past, has been more likely (and proven so) to oppose all wrongdoing.

As for desperate, IMHO as long as there are people who feel the need to write that I think it's more like others feel desperate

Edited June 11, 2011 by rubl

[JurgenG]

Many villagers are being intimidated into voting for the reds, including a very close family fried who removed a red flag that a villager put on his gatepost and then got abused for so doing.

Same in Bangkok, with their facebook witch hunt.

If you express publicly any sympathy for Thaksin, you family will be hunted, they will call your boss and your colleagues ...

Welcome to Sondhi's world.

People who were living in Thailand before 2006 know that before it wasn't like that.

By supporting the PAD, people opened the Pandora's box. Now we have to live with it.

[rubl]

Many villagers are being intimidated into voting for the reds, including a very close family fried who removed a red flag that a villager put on his gatepost and then got abused for so doing.

Same in Bangkok, with their facebook witch hunt.

If you express publicly any sympathy for Thaksin, you family will be hunted, they will call your boss and your colleagues ...

Welcome to Sondhi's world.

People who were living in Thailand before 2006 know that before it wasn't like that.

By supporting the PAD, people opened the Pandora's box. Now we have to live with it.

Before 2006 we had no facebook, almost no internet savvy Thai. It was only in 2008 that k. Thaksin got sentenced and became a fugitive not returning from Being Olympics.

Openly expressing symphaty for a convicted, on-the-run criminal would really cause question marks in the West. Family hunted, call your boss and colleagues? Does this also refer to those UDD leaders who told their supporters to burn the place and got bailed out? How many red-shirts are imprisioned? How many UDD protests over the last months showed k. Thaksin picture and how many got arrested, prosecuted?

Before 2006 Thailand wasn't like that. K. Thaksin (tried to) sue anyone into submission. All for one and more for me. Democracy Thaksin style.

[JurgenG]

Openly expressing symphaty for a convicted, on-the-run criminal would really cause question marks in the West. Family hunted, call your boss and colleagues? Does this also refer to those UDD leaders who told their supporters to burn the place and got bailed out? How many red-shirts are imprisioned? How many UDD protests over the last months showed k. Thaksin picture and how many got arrested, prosecuted?

Please note that the west never recognized any of Thaksin politically motivated convictions.

Thaksin is allowed to travel everywhere he wants but not allowed to conduct political activities. Thaksin has recently been seen in a number of European countries, he is not banned from anywhere, just not allowed to conduct political activities from there. You're just one more victim of the current propaganda.

Regarding the facebook witch hunt, "family hunted, call your boss and colleagues", it just refers to ordinary people. Are you involved in any Thai facebook group ? I don't think so.

[samurai]

This movement is larger than you think. I suggest that people read and digest the LandDestroyer blogs on the internet before posting on this issue. Also put Global into the search engines to find ut about the Global Colour Revolution which includes the reds in Thailand. Similar tactics have been used in the so called Arabian Spring revolts. Hey! Why do you think that Nato is downing Libya for 'attacking its own people' when Burma have been committing worse attrocities for years!

read and digest theLandDestroyer blogs on the internet? You mean conspiracy theorist Tony Cartalucci and other nutters?

Hey! Don' believe everything you can read somewhere on the interwebs.

Edited June 11, 2011 by samurai

[bungalownights]

The Thais are a superstitious lot. They will interpret the 1 as an omen or "good karma", destiny etc.

They will interpret whatever they want out of the assignment of each individual party number.

There's a thread on how each party justifies precisely why their number is the most desirable one...

That yourself as a Westerner would start off your post off with that nonsense is laughable.

.

Everyone knows "1st" would be the pick of the bunch by a long shot no matter how others try and spin it.

Its hard to tell exactly how much of an influence this would have but in this extremely superstitous country, it would undoubtably have some significant effect.

And in case you still haven't got the point, its not us as westeners that vote, its the Thai people.

And thats precisely why you lot are still struggling to understand Thai politics.

[lannarebirth]

if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Your use of the word "most" would make your statement incorrect if Pheu Thai do not win greater than 50% of seats and have to form a coalition with other parties whose supporters do not support Thaksin, the UDD, or the Pheu Thai thugs.

People who do not support Thaksin, UDD etc. may well support PTP for change.......why? because perhaps they are disillusioned with the performance of the current government.........simple as that.......

No: many reds have been through so called training sessions where they have been taught what 'democracy ' is - including my mae bahn here in Chiang Mai. Many villagers are being intimidated into voting for the reds, including a very close family fried who removed a red flag that a villager put on his gatepost and then got abused for so doing.

This movement is larger than you think. I suggest that people read and digest the LandDestroyer blogs on the internet before posting on this issue. Also put Global into the search engines to find ut about the Global Colour Revolution which includes the reds in Thailand. Similar tactics have been used in the so called Arabian Spring revolts. Hey! Why do you think that Nato is downing Libya for 'attacking its own people' when Burma have been committing worse attrocities for years!

Because Libya doesn't have China on its border.

[whybother]

Please note that the west never recognized any of Thaksin politically motivated convictions.

Thaksin is allowed to travel everywhere he wants but not allowed to conduct political activities. Thaksin has recently been seen in a number of European countries, he is not banned from anywhere, just not allowed to conduct political activities from there. You're just one more victim of the current propaganda.

Regarding the facebook witch hunt, "family hunted, call your boss and colleagues", it just refers to ordinary people. Are you involved in any Thai facebook group ? I don't think so.

Well, nearly everywhere:

Thaksin banned from UK.

Thaksin banned from Germany.

Thaksin banned from Japan.

I think you need to check your propaganda sources. Is your "facebook witchhunt" information from those sources too?

[lannarebirth]

Openly expressing symphaty for a convicted, on-the-run criminal would really cause question marks in the West. Family hunted, call your boss and colleagues? Does this also refer to those UDD leaders who told their supporters to burn the place and got bailed out? How many red-shirts are imprisioned? How many UDD protests over the last months showed k. Thaksin picture and how many got arrested, prosecuted?

Please note that the west never recognized any of Thaksin politically motivated convictions.

Thaksin is allowed to travel everywhere he wants but not allowed to conduct political activities. Thaksin has recently been seen in a number of European countries, he is not banned from anywhere, just not allowed to conduct political activities from there. You're just one more victim of the current propaganda.

Regarding the facebook witch hunt, "family hunted, call your boss and colleagues", it just refers to ordinary people. Are you involved in any Thai facebook group ? I don't think so.

That is not true.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5113345.ece

He also failed to receive a visa to USA last December.

Instead of the PTP motto being "Thaksin thinks, Phuea Thai acts" maybe it should be "Lies and the lying liars who tell them".

[rixalex]

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

I think you will find there are a whole host of issues that come into play when voters decide who to vote for, not only "do you agree with post number xxxx on Thaivisa by member rixalex".

[hanuman1]

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation.

I like your confidence. I don't share it. Just last year the country came perilously close to completely disintegrating into chaos and disorder, and next time it does, 90 deaths might seem a low number.

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

I remember there was one report of a brief exchange of shots between soldiers and police, but for me it would take something on a far larger scale than that to really push the country to the brink of civil war. I can't see how it could happen unless the security forces themselves were disintegrating.

Having a few hundred people torching town halls in half a dozen provinces also isn't indicative of this country being on the brink, in my opinion.

Can you tell us where abouts abroad you were at the time to not notice? Can you not tell the politics and instability, the division of groups, the friction between police and army, and state of things is headed? It's clear that there will be some catastrophic events within the next two to three years.

Yes, I was in a place called Chiang Mai. According to both Wikipedia AND Google Earth, this place falls within the boundaries of Thailand.

I'm sorry you have such a definite and dim view of the future. Presumably your plans for evacuation have been made well in advance.

I am exposed to the same news stories and TV posts as you are. I get opinions from Thais just like you probably do. So my not being able to tell where 'the state of things is headed' is less to do with those inputs and more to do with us as individuals. We interperate things differently. Please don't be surprised.

[otherstuff1957]

Well, we won't know what will happen three weeks from now, but it looks as though PT will win. The question is, will they win over 50% or will they have to form a coalition? If they have to form a coalition, who will join them?

We don't know how many seats the smaller parties will get, but if BJT gets enough to make up the magic number, Newin would happily join a coalition with PT. However, we all know who will make the decisions for PT and he might not forgive Newin for his betrayal. So who else is there? Banharn (Chart Thai)? Purachai (but will he have enough votes to make a difference)?

Only one thing is certain. In the upcoming months and maybe years, all of the important decisions regarding Thailand's government will be made in Dubai. We're in for some interesting times folks!

[jayboy]

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

I think you will find there are a whole host of issues that come into play when voters decide who to vote for, not only "do you agree with post number xxxx on Thaivisa by member rixalex".

You don't need to remind me that the Thai public is neither interested nor aware of what you, I or anyone else on this forum says.Actually the forum isn't really representative even of the expatriate community.That's not my point.

Leaving the forum views on one side for a moment, there has been a sustained propaganda campaign against the redshirts begiginning with the PAD's racist rhetoric, accusations that they only turn out for pay, they are stupid and uneducated, they are closet republicans etc etc and that the political party affiliated with them is corrupt, incompetent and simply a tool of Thaksin.

We will shortly find out what the Thai people think.It's all very well to say it's all very complicated understanding voter choice but against this the military cheerleaders will need to explain themselves, given their campaign of hatred and vitriol, if the Thai people shrug their shoulders and choose PTP nonetheless.

[lannarebirth]

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

I think you will find there are a whole host of issues that come into play when voters decide who to vote for, not only "do you agree with post number xxxx on Thaivisa by member rixalex".

You don't need to remind me that the Thai public is neither interested nor aware of what you, I or anyone else on this forum says.Actually the forum isn't really representative even of the expatriate community.That's not my point.

Leaving the forum views on one side for a moment, there has been a sustained propaganda campaign against the redshirts begiginning with the PAD's racist rhetoric, accusations that they only turn out for pay, they are stupid and uneducated, they are closet republicans etc etc and that the political party affiliated with them is corrupt, incompetent and simply a tool of Thaksin.

We will shortly find out what the Thai people think.It's all very well to say it's all very complicated understanding voter choice but against this the military cheerleaders will need to explain themselves, given their campaign of hatred and vitriol, if the Thai people shrug their shoulders and choose PTP nonetheless.

Yes, I imagine they still look back with fondness and admiration at his Roi Et Reality Roadshow spectacle. Fortunately because "Thaksin Thinks" and "Phuea Thai delivers". They'll all probably get work as hod carriers in his latest vision for Thailand.