Baht Tomorrow

[livinginthericepatties]

HOPE ITS GOING BACK OVER 40 AGAIN ..

[janverbeem]

The Baht will drop like a rock,same as it has been doing in the past few weeks,but at an accelerated speed this time.

[Jingthing]

Short term baht could strengthen because a clear victory will be seen as a lesser chance of civil war. Longer term, I predict a baht crash based on inflationary policies, over promising of instant wealth to the masses not possible to back up fundamentally, and probably continued instability manifested in unpredictable but likely violent ways. Remember Thaksin delivered enough first time to build loyalty of the peasantry, but that was in a booming global economy. Now, a historically bad global economy. He can't deliver without playing games with currency devaluation.

[theoldgit]

Don't hold your breath.

Just look at recent history, a coup, political uncertainty and unrest, riots, the list goes on and on - and still the Baht goes from strength to strength.

I'm not a financial expert, where is Nam when you need him, but the Thai economy is sound, I suppose there could be some minor movement if foreign investors hold off, but I suspect the strength of the Thai Baht will remain strong.

As I seem to recall Thaksin Shinawatra being no great lover of foreigners in Thailand, wasn't it his government who increased the financial requirements for those retired in Thailand? I suppose we will have to wait and see if Yingluk is her own person.

Of course we only have exit polls at the moment, and they are often inaccurate here, but if as it seems Pheu Thai are going to form the next government then the greatest loss will be Korn Chatikavanij, who has done an excellent job for his country.

All that said, I hope that the Baht weakens, but it it's the weakness of the Dollar, Pound and Euro which is the real concern.

I will be delighted to be proved wrong.

[londonthai]

I would love to be 50 again, but that's not going to happen. The trend would be now in an opposite direction - more foreign investors will be buying baht in the coming weeks

[remiss]

This is kind of a matter of how you see it.. Compared to say NOK it's stayed pretty stable and the USD has fallen a great deal.. THB/NOK has been around 5-6 for the last 3 years at least and now it's at 5.7.. The USD however has dropped from around 8 to 5 (NOK/USD)..

[afarang]

Please understand the Thai Baht is a managed float. Strictly controlled by the Bank of Thailand. Right now it is only allowed to vary within a very small range. We have been saying for years , now, the Baht has got to fall. It hasn't. Look at all the problems Thailand has had this past decade .What has been the effect on the Baht?. Sweet stuff all !!! Given what appears to be a very big swing ,politically, I doubt that the Bank of Thailand will be at all perturbed.I see little movement over at least the next 6 months. Hopefully I am wrong.

[ratcatcher]

Of the three major dollarn currencies, the U.S. is the weakest against the baht at around 30-31, Canadian 31-32 and Australian 32-33. In the coming weeks the dollars may strengthen against the baht by one or two baht but seriously doubt seeing a $1 = B40 in the near future.

IMHO only, of course.

[Jingthing]

Please understand the Thai Baht is a managed float. Strictly controlled by the Bank of Thailand. Right now it is only allowed to vary within a very small range. We have been saying for years , now, the Baht has got to fall. It hasn't. Look at all the problems Thailand has had this past decade .What has been the effect on the Baht?. Sweet stuff all !!! Given what appears to be a very big swing ,politically, I doubt that the Bank of Thailand will be at all perturbed.I see little movement over at least the next 6 months. Hopefully I am wrong.

They can also manage a devaluation. My understanding is there is a debt problem developing here, another encouragement for a weaker baht.

[livinginthericepatties]

i guess we'll see tomorrow..but,i don't think that the dem..party losing is a good thing for the baht.maybe if they lost to anyone else..but thaksins sister i would feel different. but,i've been wrong before, either way pretty exciting, been watching tan all day.

[ballpoint]

Seeing as there's a certain person, with a lot of $US, who will shortly need to pay for a lot of favours recently rendered, I'd say the baht will drop.

[Jingthing]

Seeing as there's a certain person, with a lot of $US, who will shortly need to pay for a lot of favours recently rendered, I'd say the baht will drop.

Amsterdam must be delivered his pound of flesh. Yes, I can say that, being Jewish ... 55555

[ballpoint]

Seeing as there's a certain person, with a lot of $US, who will shortly need to pay for a lot of favours recently rendered, I'd say the baht will drop.

Amsterdam must be delivered his pound of flesh. Yes, I can say that, being Jewish ... 55555

I was thinking more of those here in Thailand who need to be paid. He'd get a lot more blood money for his $$ were the baht to drop.

Now that he's got what he wants I wouldn't be surprised if we shortly hear about a falling out with Amsterdam. What's the bet there's a court case over payments promised but not payed, and arguments over the effectiveness, and monetary value, of certain propaganda stories? Amsterdam may soon find out that if your name's not Shinawatra you are used and discarded. Everyone else who has done business with him has found that out the hard way. The country will also find that out sooner or later too.

[CWMcMurray]

Seeing as there's a certain person, with a lot of $US, who will shortly need to pay for a lot of favours recently rendered, I'd say the baht will drop.

Amsterdam must be delivered his pound of flesh. Yes, I can say that, being Jewish ... 55555

I was thinking more of those here in Thailand who need to be paid. He'd get a lot more blood money for his $ were the baht to drop.

It actually works the other way around.... if someone was to move a large sum of money from USD to THB, that would be an increase in demand for THB, which would lead to an appreciation, not weakening of the THB (if the sum was large enough).

[irishken]

1 reason for the baht growing is the better interest rates been offered in thailand. interest rates in europe are not great at the moment and means more people depositing there cash in asian banks. remember that currencies respond to how much of it is bought. the more thats bought the more expensive it gets.

you can also see the trend with the baht changing during the high or low seasons.

what we need in europe is higher saving interest rates and greece to get there house in order

i'm hoping it to be back to 48 by jan 2012

[ExpatJ]

Its quite amusing seeing those predicting doom and gloom, a weak baht and stock crashes....meanwhile for those that want to make money- buy thai stocks now and move your US$/GBP into Thai baht. There is going to big influx of foreign investment in Thailand in coming months and it started today (my Thai stocks increased +6% in one day, biggest ever single day rise :-)  This large electoral majority means in all likelihood stablity for the medium term at least and the analysts who research this the most (i.e. those with big money to lose/make) are voting with their cash and sending it thailands way.

[Jingthing]

I predict a weaker baht. Not right away, but coming. I also predict more unemployment and inflation. I never predicted a stock market crash. Right now in the US you have a shockingly strong stock market rally going for years, in the middle of a very weak dollar, food price inflation, and brutal unemployment. Please be careful assuming a stronger stock market also means a stronger currency.

[Darrel]

...... (my Thai stocks increased +6% in one day, biggest ever single day rise :-) .......

Yes indeed. And that nice rise puts the index back to where it was early last month, or indeed in late 1996, or indeed in 1993 and also in 1990. And it puts it only 40% down on the all time high reached about 20 years ago.

Always best to clarify what a rise (or fall) follows on from, I think. Otherwise people might assume that the Thai stock market has always been a sure-fire long-term winner.

[colinscarr]

Always best to clarify what a rise (or fall) follows on from, I think. Otherwise people might assume that the Thai stock market has always been a sure-fire long-term winner.

Like the Dow Jones and the FTSE you mean?

[ExpatJ]

<br />

<br />...... (my Thai stocks increased +6% in one day, biggest ever single day rise :-)  .......<br />

<br /><br />Yes indeed. And that nice rise puts the index back to where it was early last month, or indeed in late 1996, or indeed in 1993 and also in 1990. And it puts it only 40% down on the all time high reached about 20 years ago.<br /><br />Always best to clarify what a rise (or fall) follows on from, I think. Otherwise people might assume that the Thai stock market has always been a sure-fire long-term winner.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Well i would hope people realise that stocks go up AND down

Actually the point was that the election was very well received by the markets.

[Forethat]

I'm puzzled as to why the self-acclaimed financial wiz-kid of this forum hasn't given any predictions or forecasts regarding the linguistic abilities of gardeners required following the result of the election. For instance, will a bilingu...trilingu...multilingual gardener be enough to reduce the price of a brand new BMW as it has in the past, or will Esperanto, Ugaritic or Minoan be required..?

[Darrel]

Like the Dow Jones and the FTSE you mean?

Not quite.

[Moonrakers]

I suspect that much of what drives the baht in the coming months will have little to do with economic policies.

[Darrel]

Actually the point was that the election was very well received by the markets.

The markets dont like the unknown. They would probably also have gone up by the same amount had another party got a similar majority.

[ExpatJ]

<br />

<br />Actually the point was that the election was very well received by the markets.<br />

<br /><br />The markets dont like the unknown. They would probably also have gone up by the same amount had another party got a similar majority.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Correct - the important thing was a big majority , not what party got it.

[saraburioz]

HOPE ITS GOING BACK OVER 40 AGAIN ..

HOPE IT'S GOING BACK TO 25 LIKE WHEN I MOVED HERE- I WANT A TRIP TO THE USA SOON.

[Beetlejuice]

.

[afarang]

Please understand the Thai Baht is a managed float. Strictly controlled by the Bank of Thailand. Right now it is only allowed to vary within a very small range. We have been saying for years , now, the Baht has got to fall. It hasn't. Look at all the problems Thailand has had this past decade .What has been the effect on the Baht?. Sweet stuff all !!! Given what appears to be a very big swing ,politically, I doubt that the Bank of Thailand will be at all perturbed.I see little movement over at least the next 6 months. Hopefully I am wrong.

They can also manage a devaluation. My understanding is there is a debt problem developing here, another encouragement for a weaker baht.

They can, but it is more than likely they will not. A debt problem? yes ,but not serious enough to worry the mandarins at the Bank of Thailand. It seems a lot of people are unaware that the Bank of Thailand is the Central or Reserve Bank, It sets the exchange rate. No-one else. Many Thai organisations have called for the reins to be loosened ,to no avail. Tourism problems ? The Bank is not concerned. Export problems ? The Bank is not troubled. Yesterday ,the Baht got stronger against the AU$. and it is stronger AGAIN today. Don't hold your breath thinking the exchange is going to collapse in favour of foreign currencies.The bank of Thailand will ensure you are disappointed.

[Richard4849]

Confused.

The THB has been in free float since 1996. Market forces determine the rate; it is not fixed by the Bank of Thailand.

[theoldgit]

The THB has been in free float since 1996. Market forces determine the rate; it is not fixed by the Bank of Thailand.

Yes, but they sometimes intervene if it's moving too far in the "wrong direction".