Ratchaprasong Ploy Helped Democrats Hold Most Of Bangkok

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Ratchaprasong ploy helped Democrats hold most of Bangkok

By Chularat Saengpassa,

Niphawan Kaewrakmuk

The Nation

Yet again, the Democrat Party has proved itself the most favourable party for Bangkok voters, with a landslide victory in such districts as Phra Nakhon and Sathon and majority approval for its candidates in non-eastern districts.

In District 1 (Phra Nakhon, Samphanthawong, and Pom Prab Sattru Phai), its candidate netted 39,463 votes as of press time, against 19,956 won by his rival from Pheu Thai. Its popularity was also confirmed in other districts on the Thon Buri side and southeastern Bangkok.

Pheu Thai's popularity is high but limited in northeastern Bangkok: for example, its candidate in District 13 (Sai Mai) won 50,804 votes, against 32,904 for the Democrat candidate. But as the day ended, the country's oldest political party appeared set to pocket 23 of the 33 House of Representatives seats available in the capital.

In the 2007 election, Bangkok offered 36 seats and Democrats won 27. Nationwide, the Democrats proved inadequate in denting the Pheu Thai Party's popularity, but it pulled a strong punch in the capital city.

The Democrat Party, after all, has hit hard at the Pheu Thai Party's weakest link - to red-shirt demonstrators who are blamed for the Bangkok mayhem last year. The outcome refuted exit polls that predicted the Democrat Party would suffer a terrible defeat in the capital and portrayed Pheu Thai as an invincible rival, not just a strong opponent any more.

In its last-ditch efforts to beat the Pheu Thai Party in the run-up to the election, the Democrat Party set up its campaign stage right at the Ratchaprasong Intersection on the pretext it wanted to inform the public of what really happened between April and May last year. However, to political pundits, the clear purpose of the Democrat strategy was to hit its political opponent at its weakest point and to sway Bangkok voters back to its side.

The Democrat Party opted for the Ratchaprasong campaign only after polls repeatedly showed the Pheu Thai Party to be much more popular in the capital.

To change the political tide in Bangkok to its favour, the Democrat Party chose to remind Bangkok voters of the 2010 red-shirt riots.

Not long after red-shirt demonstrators camped out at the Ratchaprasong Intersection last year, some of Bangkok was on fire.

With the red shirts' close link to the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party was convinced Bangkok voters were going to punish Pheu Thai candidates.

The Democrat Party had seen how the Pheu Thai Party, a reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai and People Power parties, suffered politically in the Bangkok-based election because of its close ties with red shirts before.

Last year, Bangkok voters presented a landslide victory to the Democrat Party during the elections of Bangkok district and municipal councillors.

A huge number of Bangkok voters must have felt upset about the Democrat-led administration's failure to tackle rising prices of such commodities as palm oil and eggs. Their sentiment was detected in many opinion surveys on which party would win the July 3 election.

However, when the Democrat Party resorted to highlighting the Pheu Thai Party's link to the red riots, Bangkok voters clearly thought twice before casting their ballots yesterday.

Therefore, contrary to all pollsters' forecasts that the Democrat Party would lose the election in Bangkok, voters in most constituencies threw their support behind the Democrats.

It seems the Democrat Party's last-minute move to attack red shirts worked magic in keeping most Bangkok voters on its side.

According to tallies last night, the Democrat Party swept all MP seats from inner Bangkok while the Pheu Thai Party saw its candidates win only in Bangkok's eastern zones.

-- The Nation 2011-07-04

[MAJIC]

Seems like the Bangkok Voters saw the truth with their own eyes.

[KKvampire]

and thai s outside Bangkok didnt give a dam_n what the UDD /PT did to the nations capital city . says it all.

[Siam Simon]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

[KKvampire]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

Consistently wrong Exit polls, not just in bangkok, Perhaps many Bangkok folk thought about what they were doing before placing their mark on the paper, no financial inducements were required to vote for sanity.

Edited July 4, 2011 by KKvampire

[philw]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

Consistently wrong Exit polls, not just in bangkok, Perhaps many Bangkok folk thought about what they were doing before placing their mark on the paper, no financial inducements were required to vote for sanity.

Just to refute all of you.

" Looking at the party vote though, Puea Thai are only 50,000 votes behind the Democrats (1,143,533 to 1,090,392) for all of Bangkok and a number of constituencies, the results are quite close."

From Bangkok Pundit.

[whybother]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

The exit pollsters have admitted that they were wrong and given excuses as to why they were wrong.

[SomTumTiger]

Issan elects and Bangkok rejects - A phrase my wife has used on occasion. Lets see how it plays out.

[Siam Simon]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

Consistently wrong Exit polls, not just in bangkok, Perhaps many Bangkok folk thought about what they were doing before placing their mark on the paper, no financial inducements were required to vote for sanity.

No financial inducements were required for the exit polls (which were very consistent with their predictions) either. One gets the impression that a Mugabe-esque/ Ahmedinejad-esque manipulation would have been required to achieve the required swing. Bloody amateurs, eh?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

and thai s outside Bangkok didnt give a dam_n what the UDD /PT did to the nations capital city . says it all.

This shows a genuine misunderstanding of the struggle.

Many people up-country believe it was necessary to bring the message to Bangkok and let people experience the full extent of their grievances.

Even that one line of text highlights the misconception: If people outside of Bangkok didn't give a dam_n about Bangkok, they wouldn't have travelled there to protest. Clearly it's Bangkok that is the center of power; an obvious place to protest.

Until the army was sent in and killed scores of people, including medical nurses in a temple. That the "Democrats" used that murder as an election ploy shows they have no true interest in reconciliation.

[Siam Simon]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

The exit pollsters have admitted that they were wrong and given excuses as to why they were wrong.

You just don't give up, do you?

They're hardly likely to rock the boat, aren't they? Strange that they were all wrong by similar margins. Flying pig alert

[whybother]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

The exit pollsters have admitted that they were wrong and given excuses as to why they were wrong.

You just don't give up, do you?

They're hardly likely to rock the boat, aren't they? Strange that they were all wrong by similar margins. Flying pig alert

All the votes were counted in the open. Don't you think that PTP would have had someone at every polling station and have their own counts?

You just sit there coming up with conspiracy theories with your tin hat on. You'll be OK.

[Peoplevote]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

The exit pollsters have admitted that they were wrong and given excuses as to why they were wrong.

You just don't give up, do you?

They're hardly likely to rock the boat, aren't they? Strange that they were all wrong by similar margins. Flying pig alert

All the votes were counted in the open. Don't you think that PTP would have had someone at every polling station and have their own counts?

You just sit there coming up with conspiracy theories with your tin hat on. You'll be OK.

Yes all the votes have been counted in the open and the Thai People have freely chosen to prove to all the red bashers here that Abhisit never had and never will have a mandate from the Thai people .

[whybother]

Yes all the votes have been counted in the open and the Thai People have freely chosen to prove to all the red bashers here that Abhisit never had and never will have a mandate from the Thai people .

I don't know what "Abhisit having a mandate" has to do with "red bashers".

Just because Abhisit was voted out doesn't make what the red shirts did right.

Maybe they should have accepted the early elections offered to them rather than going on a rampage.

edit: oh ... and to

Edited July 4, 2011 by whybother

[Siam Simon]

Yes all the votes have been counted in the open and the Thai People have freely chosen to prove to all the red bashers here that Abhisit never had and never will have a mandate from the Thai people .

I don't know what "Abhisit having a mandate" has to do with "red bashers".

Just because Abhisit was voted out doesn't make what the red shirts did right.

Maybe they should have accepted the early elections offered to them rather than going on a rampage.

edit: oh ... and to

be careful.....too much encouragement and we might have another 1000 posts in 30 days poster

[whybother]

Yes all the votes have been counted in the open and the Thai People have freely chosen to prove to all the red bashers here that Abhisit never had and never will have a mandate from the Thai people .

I don't know what "Abhisit having a mandate" has to do with "red bashers".

Just because Abhisit was voted out doesn't make what the red shirts did right.

Maybe they should have accepted the early elections offered to them rather than going on a rampage.

edit: oh ... and to

be careful.....too much encouragement and we might have another 1000 posts in 30 days poster

Is there a problem with that?

[hammered]

I would guess that the exit polls were a bit messy as people had two votes: one for a constituency candidate and one for a party list one and some people would have split the vote. There have also been times in the US and UK when exit polls have been off. Sometimes people just plain lie.

Anyway the election is over. The result is out. The result was pretty much what it was reported a PTP insider predicted a few days ago (267 for PTP). It needs to be accepted so the country can move on. PTP do have a mandate and with the Thaksin thinks, PTP does slogan out front, it is hard to deny they have a mandate to help the man whether we like it or not. And lets be honest what we like or dont like is actually imaterial

[Fookhaht]

..... And lets be honest what we like or dont like is actually imaterial

The above, written with western-colored spectacles on. The implication is that the will of the people has spoken, and that settles it. True, in Lancaster, Johannesburg, Philadelphia and Wichita.

But Dorothy, this ain't Kansas.

An election result doesn't mean one whit as long as the real ones in power hold the guns. Overruling the will of the people at the polls has happened 13 times here in my lifetime alone. The tether allowed to politicians is only so long in a quasi-democracy, despite the hollow promises of the guys with medals and badges.

Like all of us, I hope for the best. Realistically, don't hold your breath.

Edited July 4, 2011 by Fookhaht

[hammered]

..... And lets be honest what we like or dont like is actually imaterial

The above, written with western-colored spectacles on. The implication is that the will of the people has spoken, and that settles it. True, in Lancaster, Johannesburg, Philadelphia and Wichita.

But Dorothy, this ain't Kansas.

An election result doesn't mean one whit as long as the real ones in power hold the guns. Overruling the will of the people at the polls has happened 13 times here in my lifetime alone. The tether allowed to politicians is only so long in a quasi-democracy. Don't hold your breath this time.

This time anyone trying to pull a coup is going to really be risking it from the sentiments towards such things I hear. And lets not forget it is those regarded as part of the establishment (Dems) who offered and organised the election as a let the people decide thing. They werent forced to do it and most coalition allies wanted to wait until later.

There are enough who didnt vote PTP who dont want to see another coup or any more generals pulling strings if you get out and talk to people. Lets just hope nobody panics and tries it. As in any country it is more likley the powerful ones will talk to the powerful ones to try and reach agreements. And what we like or dont like is imaterial. In Thailand people may not agree on politics but there is a huge majority who want to move on from this impasse

[yoshiwara]

and thai s outside Bangkok didnt give a dam_n what the UDD /PT did to the nations capital city . says it all.

This shows a genuine misunderstanding of the struggle.

Many people up-country believe it was necessary to bring the message to Bangkok and let people experience the full extent of their grievances.

Even that one line of text highlights the misconception: If people outside of Bangkok didn't give a dam_n about Bangkok, they wouldn't have travelled there to protest. Clearly it's Bangkok that is the center of power; an obvious place to protest.

Until the army was sent in and killed scores of people, including medical nurses in a temple. That the "Democrats" used that murder as an election ploy shows they have no true interest in reconciliation.

It was the reds who used murder as the election ploy.

I see the mystical red 'struggle' is being waved here again by some falang left-wing wannabes.

The failure to take Bangkok is a message from the urban working class that they aren't convinced by the crooked Thaksin......

[chaoyang]

<snip>

But Dorothy, this ain't Kansas.

An election result doesn't mean one whit as long as the real ones in power hold the guns. Overruling the will of the people at the polls has happened 13 times here in my lifetime alone. The tether allowed to politicians is only so long in a quasi-democracy, despite the hollow promises of the guys with medals and badges.

Like all of us, I hope for the best. Realistically, don't hold your breath.

Yes, but in the "glory days" of strongmen like Field Marshall Sarit (1957-1963) and Thanom Kittikachorn (1963-1973), the people didn't take to the streets in a prolonged demonstration as the Red Shirts did last year. There was a student uprising against Thanom in 1973 (after he staged a coup against his own government!), but it lasted just three days before it was put down.

The times, they are a-changing.

[ballpoint]

..... And lets be honest what we like or dont like is actually imaterial

The above, written with western-colored spectacles on. The implication is that the will of the people has spoken, and that settles it. True, in Lancaster, Johannesburg, Philadelphia and Wichita.

But Dorothy, this ain't Kansas.

An election result doesn't mean one whit as long as the real ones in power hold the guns. Overruling the will of the people at the polls has happened 13 times here in my lifetime alone. The tether allowed to politicians is only so long in a quasi-democracy. Don't hold your breath this time.

This time anyone trying to pull a coup is going to really be risking it from the sentiments towards such things I hear. And lets not forget it is those regarded as part of the establishment (Dems) who offered and organised the election as a let the people decide thing. They werent forced to do it and most coalition allies wanted to wait until later.

There are enough who didnt vote PTP who dont want to see another coup or any more generals pulling strings if you get out and talk to people. Lets just hope nobody panics and tries it. As in any country it is more likley the powerful ones will talk to the powerful ones to try and reach agreements. And what we like or dont like is imaterial. In Thailand people may not agree on politics but there is a huge majority who want to move on from this impasse

The precedent has been set by the reds. Just get 100,000 people in the middle of Bangkok, burn a few red supporting businesses out, lob grenades at anyone who tries to peacefully break it up, end up by shooting at people taking shelter in a temple, blame it all on the army and give yourself an amnesty. No coup required.

[hammered]

..... And lets be honest what we like or dont like is actually imaterial

The above, written with western-colored spectacles on. The implication is that the will of the people has spoken, and that settles it. True, in Lancaster, Johannesburg, Philadelphia and Wichita.

But Dorothy, this ain't Kansas.

An election result doesn't mean one whit as long as the real ones in power hold the guns. Overruling the will of the people at the polls has happened 13 times here in my lifetime alone. The tether allowed to politicians is only so long in a quasi-democracy. Don't hold your breath this time.

This time anyone trying to pull a coup is going to really be risking it from the sentiments towards such things I hear. And lets not forget it is those regarded as part of the establishment (Dems) who offered and organised the election as a let the people decide thing. They werent forced to do it and most coalition allies wanted to wait until later.

There are enough who didnt vote PTP who dont want to see another coup or any more generals pulling strings if you get out and talk to people. Lets just hope nobody panics and tries it. As in any country it is more likley the powerful ones will talk to the powerful ones to try and reach agreements. And what we like or dont like is imaterial. In Thailand people may not agree on politics but there is a huge majority who want to move on from this impasse

The precedent has been set by the reds. Just get 100,000 people in the middle of Bangkok, burn a few red supporting businesses out, lob grenades at anyone who tries to peacefully break it up, end up by shooting at people taking shelter in a temple, blame it all on the army and give yourself an amnesty. No coup required.

The red precedent as you describe it didnt achieve government change, and after a let the people decide election in which the people have decided and against those who offered the election and hoped to win, it is going to be hard to do anything to stymie the new government and not face a backlash you cant control.

Probably trying to force loads of coalition allies in to destabilise the government from the outset is one thing but PTP may this time be savvy enough to keep it minimal and have potential to bring in new in place of old later.

[ballpoint]

The precedent has been set by the reds. Just get 100,000 people in the middle of Bangkok, burn a few red supporting businesses out, lob grenades at anyone who tries to peacefully break it up, end up by shooting at people taking shelter in a temple, blame it all on the army and give yourself an amnesty. No coup required.

The red precedent as you describe it didnt achieve government change, and after a let the people decide election in which the people have decided and against those who offered the election and hoped to win, it is going to be hard to do anything to stymie the new government and not face a backlash you cant control.

Probably trying to force loads of coalition allies in to destabilise the government from the outset is one thing but PTP may this time be savvy enough to keep it minimal and have potential to bring in new in place of old later.

No, what the reds did was change the perception of the government and prevent them from concentrating on running the country. I guarantee that the sight of a repeat of last year's violence would not do the PTP any favours. Not that I'm advocating such a scenario.... yet. I'd like to see the PTP being allowed to get on with implementing their policies and forget about trying to bring Thaksin back immediately. Have a look at what they are doing in a year's time. How many of their policies have actually got off the ground, or are even looking like taxiing to the runway. Remind the voters of what was promised. Point out any changes, to the better or worse, in human rights, media freedom, living standards in the poorer parts of the country and corruption. If the balance sheet is in the red (no pun intended), then fire up the protests. After all, if this election was all about change, and the PTP lied to us about what they will be changing, then the people have a right to demand why. Until we see how this works out it is really a waste of time, and more than a little foolish, to be trumpeting the joys of victory or the gloom of defeat.

[xminator]

Seems like the Bangkok Voters saw the truth with their own eyes.

No they didn't. If you look at the vote total, Democrats won a very small majority in several constituency, so the seats won is very different from the vote % cast. Its a little funny how Nation forget to mention that in the analysis, but looking for a needle of hope and to save face I guess that's bias showing trough alright.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

So.. wait.. in the very same newspaper is also this:

Seeing their poor performance in the opinion polls, the Democrats decided to call a campaign rally at Ratchaprasong, putting the blame on Yingluck's elusive brother and ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his red-shirt allies for last year's unrest. That move appeared to have backfired as the rally upset many people who wanted to forget the event.

Democrat's Error Prone Road to Defeat

So.. which is it?

The Nation too seems to still be struggling with this one. You often see the same at other opinionated media, where the spin doctors initially spin in wildly varying directions before finally re-aligning into a new message. That's always fun to watch. Happens at Fox all the time too.

Edited July 4, 2011 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Phuket Stan]

So.. wait.. in the very same newspaper is also this:

Seeing their poor performance in the opinion polls, the Democrats decided to call a campaign rally at Ratchaprasong, putting the blame on Yingluck's elusive brother and ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his red-shirt allies for last year's unrest. That move appeared to have backfired as the rally upset many people who wanted to forget the event.

Democrat's Error Prone Road to Defeat

So.. which is it?

The Nation too seems to still be struggling with this one. You often see the same at other opinionated media, where the spin doctors initially spin in wildly varying directions before finally re-aligning into a new message. That's always fun to watch. Happens at Fox all the time too.

You actually watch Fox....my it must be nice to have so much time to waste

[jimbeam1]

The precedent has been set by the reds. Just get 100,000 people in the middle of Bangkok, burn a few red supporting businesses out, lob grenades at anyone who tries to peacefully break it up, end up by shooting at people taking shelter in a temple, blame it all on the army and give yourself an amnesty. No coup required.

The red precedent as you describe it didnt achieve government change, and after a let the people decide election in which the people have decided and against those who offered the election and hoped to win, it is going to be hard to do anything to stymie the new government and not face a backlash you cant control.

Probably trying to force loads of coalition allies in to destabilise the government from the outset is one thing but PTP may this time be savvy enough to keep it minimal and have potential to bring in new in place of old later.

No, what the reds did was change the perception of the government and prevent them from concentrating on running the country. I guarantee that the sight of a repeat of last year's violence would not do the PTP any favours. Not that I'm advocating such a scenario.... yet. I'd like to see the PTP being allowed to get on with implementing their policies and forget about trying to bring Thaksin back immediately. Have a look at what they are doing in a year's time. How many of their policies have actually got off the ground, or are even looking like taxiing to the runway. Remind the voters of what was promised. Point out any changes, to the better or worse, in human rights, media freedom, living standards in the poorer parts of the country and corruption. If the balance sheet is in the red (no pun intended), then fire up the protests. After all, if this election was all about change, and the PTP lied to us about what they will be changing, then the people have a right to demand why. Until we see how this works out it is really a waste of time, and more than a little foolish, to be trumpeting the joys of victory or the gloom of defeat.

Well said. That is all anyone should do. Just wait a while and see what transpires? Then go in and kick arse?

jb1

[ajarnmark]

In view of the consistency of the exit polls, I would say that there were a few more ploys that helped the Dems in Bangkok.

Consistently wrong Exit polls, not just in bangkok, Perhaps many Bangkok folk thought about what they were doing before placing their mark on the paper, no financial inducements were required to vote for sanity.

Just to refute all of you.

" Looking at the party vote though, Puea Thai are only 50,000 votes behind the Democrats (1,143,533 to 1,090,392) for all of Bangkok and a number of constituencies, the results are quite close."

From Bangkok Pundit.

@Phil: who u r telling the facts... these people r blind while hating Thaksin... coz he caused trouble to many "valuable" farangs by tightening the visa policy n hence made them his enemy... who can shoot "bullets" online only...

[Maxxamum]

The precedent has been set by the reds. Just get 100,000 people in the middle of Bangkok, burn a few red supporting businesses out, lob grenades at anyone who tries to peacefully break it up, end up by shooting at people taking shelter in a temple, blame it all on the army and give yourself an amnesty. No coup required.

The red precedent as you describe it didnt achieve government change, and after a let the people decide election in which the people have decided and against those who offered the election and hoped to win, it is going to be hard to do anything to stymie the new government and not face a backlash you cant control.

Probably trying to force loads of coalition allies in to destabilise the government from the outset is one thing but PTP may this time be savvy enough to keep it minimal and have potential to bring in new in place of old later.

No, what the reds did was change the perception of the government and prevent them from concentrating on running the country. I guarantee that the sight of a repeat of last year's violence would not do the PTP any favours. Not that I'm advocating such a scenario.... yet. I'd like to see the PTP being allowed to get on with implementing their policies and forget about trying to bring Thaksin back immediately. Have a look at what they are doing in a year's time. How many of their policies have actually got off the ground, or are even looking like taxiing to the runway. Remind the voters of what was promised. Point out any changes, to the better or worse, in human rights, media freedom, living standards in the poorer parts of the country and corruption. If the balance sheet is in the red (no pun intended), then fire up the protests. After all, if this election was all about change, and the PTP lied to us about what they will be changing, then the people have a right to demand why. Until we see how this works out it is really a waste of time, and more than a little foolish, to be trumpeting the joys of victory or the gloom of defeat.

This has really been quite interesting dating back to the Red Shirt rallies and campaign stumping all over the North. I was up in Udon for a few weeks visiting my wife's family who are all Red Shirts. Regarding Thaksin's conviction for fraud, well since everybody 'eats money' why be so hard on him? This is the sentiment I found most prevalent...like 99.99% of the time among family members. But bringing back Thaksin will most assuredly increase the price for Euca because when he was PM the price was higher, and under Abhisit, the price dropped. Never mind the stale worldwide economy and the fact business needs less paper products in support of a less-active business. And somehow Abhisit got into the street light pole business because when he became PM the cost of those went up costing the government more money every time they buy one. So Abhisit is 'eating money' too but being a bit more sneaky as to how he does it. The implication was that he somehow profited from the price increase. So being a Red Shirt is like being part of a flight of doves. One turns right, they all turn right...one turns left, they all turn left. Never mind whether the leader actually knows where he is going, the rest just follow the guy ahead of him. When the village leader speaks, they all believe and independent thinking seemed pretty much non-existent. Proud to be Red, vote Red, support Red because being Yellow among family members only brings trouble. And when I compared Red and Yellow to Republicans and Democrats and explained how they attempt to work together to run America, they said "Impossible" because all the Yellows must go and cannot be part of the new ALL RED Thailand. So the future will be just as interesting to follow.