webfact Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 ANALYSIS Thrust into a minefield of power By Somroutai Sapsomboon The Nation Process will expose PM candidate Yingluck to political storms The Pheu Thai Party will have to tread several political minefields despite being able to form an outright government after winning a simple majority. First and foremost is the nomination of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister Yingluck Shinawatra as Thailand's first female prime minister. The process will expose her to political storms from all directions for being Thaksin's proxy, or in his words "my clone". Is Thaksin ready to usher his sister into that position, and if so, is he certain that she will be able to weather the political storms ahead? "The opposition she had to confront during the election campaign would be nothing when compared with what Yingluck would face as prime minister," commented a seasoned political observer, a view shared by many experts. If she manages to become prime minister, Yingluck will have to brace for tough scrutiny on her past and her background by Democrat politicians in the opposition. A censure debate could be a really bad nightmare for her. Pheu Thai announced during the election campaign that Yingluck would be its prime-ministerial candidate, so it would not be easy for Thaksin to make an about-turn. "If it isn't Yingluck, it will tantamount to lying to the people," Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said in a recent interview. In addition to the perception that the party had lied to the people, a bigger problem could be the subsequent infighting for the prime minister's seat, a problem that was squashed when Yingluck was nominated as Pheu Thai's top candidate. According to many political observers, Yongyuth had the best chance if Thaksin did not want his sister to become the next prime minister. He is a person the Pheu Thai's big boss could trust wholeheartedly, and his rise to power would be unlikely to lead to any severe rift in the party. However, Yongyuth admitted to The Nation that "I am not ready and will never become" prime minister. Another likely candidate for the premiership is Pracha Promnok, the man whom Pheu Thai MPs backed in December 2008 during his contest in the House of Representatives against Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva for the prime minister's seat. Pracha at that time was with the small Puea Pandin Party. However, Pracha's chance is minimal, as Chalerm Yoobamrung, another senior Pheu Thai figure, is on a higher position on the party list (Chalerm is No 3, compared with Pracha's No 5). Given the ranking on the party list, Yongyuth (No 2) is more likely to be Yingluck's substitute, if it becomes necessary. Irrespective of who becomes the next prime minister, Pheu Thai's problems will not stop there. A Pheu Thai-led Cabinet will come under close public scrutiny. The interest won't merely be on whether quality persons will be included in the Cabinet, but also whether any of the red-shirt leaders will be appointed to ministerial posts. Red-shirt leaders who are high on Pheu Thai's party list - such as Jatuporn Promphan, Natthawut Saikua, and Weng Tojirakarn - are expected to be rewarded for their "hard work" during last year's political unrest that led to them to being remanded in jail. This will become another dilemma for Thaksin, in addition to the one as to whether Yingluck should become prime minister. Appointing red-shirt leaders facing severe charges such as terrorism and lese majeste to a Pheu Thai-led government might pose a threat to its stability. "If he does not want to have problems, Thaksin should keep the red shirts away from a Pheu Thai-led Cabinet," said a veteran politician, whose view was shared by a banned politician. However, if Jatuporn, Natthawut or Weng fail to get appointed to the Cabinet just because they are red-shirt leaders and face legal action, their friends in the red-shirt movement might feel offended. This could strain ties between Pheu Thai and the red shirts in the same way the ties between the Democrat Party and the yellow shirts suffered after the yellow-shirt leaders' demands were rejected by the Democrat-led government. Another possible "time bomb" for a Pheu Thai government involves questions about its relationship with the military and the new defence minister. There has been speculation that Pheu Thai may approach outgoing Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan to serve in the same post in its government. Earlier, it was rumoured that former Army chief General Anupong Paochinda would be given the job. Both Prawit and Anupong are close to the current Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who does not appear to be on good terms with Pheu Thai politicians. Prawit is also close to banned politician Newin Chidchob, de facto leader of the outgoing-coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party, who is on top of Thaksin's blacklist for "being ungrateful". In 2008, Newin's faction left Thaksin's proxy party and shifted its support to the Democrat Party. Anupong was one of the generals who overthrew Thaksin's government in 2006 and he served as the Army chief last May when soldiers dispersed the red shirts rally. However, Anupong did work closely with Samak Sundaravej, the late prime minister and Thaksin's proxy who led a short-lived People's Power Party government after the 2007 election. Another dilemma that could become a political landmine for Pheu Thai involves how to deal with those responsible for the 91 deaths during last year's political unrest and rioting. Red-shirt leaders blamed Army commanders and politicians in power for all the deaths, while investigation showed that armed militants within the red shirts were responsible for many of the deaths, particularly those of soldiers and police. Moreover, many of the red-shirt leaders - some of whom were Pheu Thai's key candidates in the party-list election - are facing severe charges in connection with last year's turmoil. It is undeniable that they played a key role in helping Thaksin's proxy party return to power. "Do not treat the red shirts as a problem. The Pheu Thai Party is able to exist because of the red shirts. Without the red shirts, Pheu Thai would have been beaten up long ago," Jatuporn warned during a party meeting to select election candidates. At that time, an idea was floated that the party should not field any red shirts in the election. The biggest political time bomb for Pheu Thai is the issue of granting amnesty to Thaksin. Although Pheu Thai has insisted amnesty is not intended for Thaksin alone, it is undeniable that the fugitive ex-prime minister is going to benefit - and it is also the main reason Thaksin sent his youngest sister into the political fray. There could also be other political landmines Pheu Thai could trip over as time passes. A veteran political observer said it would be far more difficult for the party - and Thaksin - to deal with an election victory than a loss. -- The Nation 2011-07-04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Good riddance and welcome to the coals of being judged for what you actually DO rather than what you actually BURN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillies Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 This 'analysis' is grasping at straws, just too many wrong guesses to even take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
virtualtraveller Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 There can be no doubt Yingluck will be appointed Prime Minister, she's a Shinawatra, that's what everyone voted for right? Or a women. Now the'yre banking on her soft touch to gain further credibility by coming up with an amnesty plan that sticks. But it doesn't detract from the fact that she has little experience in dealing with the dirty world of politics and dirty it will be given the dirty tactics employed to get her there. Abhisit lost on (among other things) a relentless campaign to discredit him as a 'puppet' and now that they're in the opposition I would expect them, plus many other powerful players who detest this outcome, to start cutting her down once the honeymoon is over. Eventually she's going to have to face up a very difficult collision course, how to eventually exonerate her brother (her number 1 task) without it costing her her head. I kind of feel sorry for all, in all the window dressing of the past whirlwind 2 months none of her advisors have let on that she's taken on the 'worst job in Thailand'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Oh please. Everyone voting for their party was voting for her as PM (together with links to her brother). That cant be ignored. To put some establishment friendly dour face in now would go against that whole expression and would be wrong. She should be the new PM and be judged on her performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nisa Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakseedaa Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 What a mess. Yes agreed, but what fun it will be to see how the might fall..... I feel sorry for this country and the people I have lost all respect for...... corruption is now the ruler in Thailand. Ask and Farang businessman..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Well they managed to sell the block of ice to the eskimos - now comes the hard part where it melts and there is no gold brick inside. What will she do when there is insufficient funds to pay for the promises, have a little cry and blame it all on the democrats? How will she justify trying to return bro's 46 billion, when there is insufficient to fund the free health scheme - tell them that you are a sacrifice to the great leader? And the UDD boys are high on the party list, which normally means cabinet positions. What a government to offer to your neighbours and the world - a pack of liars and terrorists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KKvampire Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Anyone see the Movie "The Candidate"? The politician who projects himself as good ,honest , representing the "ordinary" folks,standing for the US Senate and winning never really saying what and how he could achieve all the promises. Famous line to one of his close advisors or Spin doctor at the end. "What do we do now"? I guess in Yinglucks case its keep the open line to Dubai permananetly open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Anyone see the Movie "The Candidate"? The politician who projects himself as good ,honest , representing the "ordinary" folks,standing for the US Senate and winning never really saying what and how he could achieve all the promises. Famous line to one of his close advisors or Spin doctor at the end. "What do we do now"? I guess in Yinglucks case its keep the open line to Dubai permananetly open. Could she be a "Manchurian Candidate"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tutone Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 What a mess. This is like Sara Palin being elected president of the U.S. I hope Yingluck is not as dumb as Palin. They are both pawns. Palin is a pawn of the tea party and publicity news media. I think even the Republicans shudder at the thought of her being president. Yingluck is a pawn of her brother and may quickly become a figurehead and "yes lady" for the true holders of power. Even my Thai wife, who is a huge red-shirt and Taksin, supporter, expressed doubts about whether Yingluck has the experience to fill the post of prime minister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 There can be no doubt Yingluck will be appointed Prime Minister, she's a Shinawatra, that's what everyone voted for right? Or a women. Now the'yre banking on her soft touch to gain further credibility by coming up with an amnesty plan that sticks. But it doesn't detract from the fact that she has little experience in dealing with the dirty world of politics and dirty it will be given the dirty tactics employed to get her there. Abhisit lost on (among other things) a relentless campaign to discredit him as a 'puppet' and now that they're in the opposition I would expect them, plus many other powerful players who detest this outcome, to start cutting her down once the honeymoon is over. Eventually she's going to have to face up a very difficult collision course, how to eventually exonerate her brother (her number 1 task) without it costing her her head. I kind of feel sorry for all, in all the window dressing of the past whirlwind 2 months none of her advisors have let on that she's taken on the 'worst job in Thailand'. After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khaowong1 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Oh please. Everyone voting for their party was voting for her as PM (together with links to her brother). That cant be ignored. To put some establishment friendly dour face in now would go against that whole expression and would be wrong. She should be the new PM and be judged on her performance If they put someone else in her spot as Prime Minister, watch out. The tanks will roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 There can be no doubt Yingluck will be appointed Prime Minister, she's a Shinawatra, that's what everyone voted for right? Or a women. Now the'yre banking on her soft touch to gain further credibility by coming up with an amnesty plan that sticks. But it doesn't detract from the fact that she has little experience in dealing with the dirty world of politics and dirty it will be given the dirty tactics employed to get her there. Abhisit lost on (among other things) a relentless campaign to discredit him as a 'puppet' and now that they're in the opposition I would expect them, plus many other powerful players who detest this outcome, to start cutting her down once the honeymoon is over. Eventually she's going to have to face up a very difficult collision course, how to eventually exonerate her brother (her number 1 task) without it costing her her head. I kind of feel sorry for all, in all the window dressing of the past whirlwind 2 months none of her advisors have let on that she's taken on the 'worst job in Thailand'. After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. "After the big business world of Thailand.........." do me a favour! She got the "family" business to create a position for her.............and as far as anyone can tell did SFA except draw a pay cheque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 There can be no doubt Yingluck will be appointed Prime Minister, she's a Shinawatra, that's what everyone voted for right? Or a women. Now the'yre banking on her soft touch to gain further credibility by coming up with an amnesty plan that sticks. But it doesn't detract from the fact that she has little experience in dealing with the dirty world of politics and dirty it will be given the dirty tactics employed to get her there. Abhisit lost on (among other things) a relentless campaign to discredit him as a 'puppet' and now that they're in the opposition I would expect them, plus many other powerful players who detest this outcome, to start cutting her down once the honeymoon is over. Eventually she's going to have to face up a very difficult collision course, how to eventually exonerate her brother (her number 1 task) without it costing her her head. I kind of feel sorry for all, in all the window dressing of the past whirlwind 2 months none of her advisors have let on that she's taken on the 'worst job in Thailand'. After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. "After the big business world of Thailand.........." do me a favour! She got the "family" business to create a position for her.............and as far as anyone can tell did SFA except draw a pay cheque. And how does a mobile phone monopoly get created in Thailand? Brown envelopes. As I said, it fits in very well with Thai politics. Sorry if you misunderstood. All big business in Thailand is about keeping the politicians and the system on side, very akin to running the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpoint Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 (edited) After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. "After the big business world of Thailand.........." do me a favour! She got the "family" business to create a position for her.............and as far as anyone can tell did SFA except draw a pay cheque. The importance of her work at AIS is readily demonstrated by who the new owners replaced her with when she left after they took charge. Nobody. Edited July 4, 2011 by ballpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolf5370 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Well they managed to sell the block of ice to the eskimos - now comes the hard part where it melts and there is no gold brick inside. What will she do when there is insufficient funds to pay for the promises, have a little cry and blame it all on the democrats? How will she justify trying to return bro's 46 billion, when there is insufficient to fund the free health scheme - tell them that you are a sacrifice to the great leader? And the UDD boys are high on the party list, which normally means cabinet positions. What a government to offer to your neighbours and the world - a pack of liars and terrorists. May be she'll do what most of the western countries do when they can't pay for their committments - borrow it. Lets face it, Thailand is a good financial risk and has a good credit rating, it pays to ensure the people are kept happy (everyone) - so borrow now and repay at leisure (and cheaply in the long run as the dollar continues to slide too I guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. "After the big business world of Thailand.........." do me a favour! She got the "family" business to create a position for her.............and as far as anyone can tell did SFA except draw a pay cheque. The importance of her work at AIS is readily demonstrated by who the new owners replaced her with when she left after they took charge. Nobody. I think you are misunderstanding what I was trying to say, tongue in cheek. If someone gave my 8 year old daughter a government granted telephone monopoly I am sure she could make money at it. I was implying that the raison d'etre for Thai big business is to keep others out by paying for the law to be put in your favour. I am sure she is brighter than most, but if you read my post, I was never implying that she was provably very capable at big business. I was implying that experience in Thai business often gives a lot of practical experience that may be extremely useful in Thai politics. That doesn't mean that she won't make a perfectly capable PM. Look at who they have had over the last 25 years. Hardly paragons of political or economic success other than a couple. And they weren't all blessed with any particular level of academic or business acumen. More that running big business in Thailand can be very simple if you have enough cash and are granted a monopoly, and then simply keep paying to keep the laws in your favour. All skills that are very applicable in government in Thailand. Just look at how many of the big businesses have a family member sitting in parliament, hiding behind a government granted license protection. It all costs money. They are the opitome of anti-competitive behaviour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 There can be no doubt Yingluck will be appointed Prime Minister, she's a Shinawatra, that's what everyone voted for right? Or a women. Now the'yre banking on her soft touch to gain further credibility by coming up with an amnesty plan that sticks. But it doesn't detract from the fact that she has little experience in dealing with the dirty world of politics and dirty it will be given the dirty tactics employed to get her there. Abhisit lost on (among other things) a relentless campaign to discredit him as a 'puppet' and now that they're in the opposition I would expect them, plus many other powerful players who detest this outcome, to start cutting her down once the honeymoon is over. Eventually she's going to have to face up a very difficult collision course, how to eventually exonerate her brother (her number 1 task) without it costing her her head. I kind of feel sorry for all, in all the window dressing of the past whirlwind 2 months none of her advisors have let on that she's taken on the 'worst job in Thailand'. After the big business world of Thailand, I think she will be well schooled in the big world of Thai politics. Money can get you everywhere. She can pay off every single one of the people mentioned in this article just to keep them in line. I would imagine there will be quite a few regular trips to Zurich for quite a few people in the coming months. "After the big business world of Thailand.........." do me a favour! She got the "family" business to create a position for her.............and as far as anyone can tell did SFA except draw a pay cheque. And how does a mobile phone monopoly get created in Thailand? Brown envelopes. As I said, it fits in very well with Thai politics. Sorry if you misunderstood. All big business in Thailand is about keeping the politicians and the system on side, very akin to running the government. My apologies, blame it on the Chang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Well they managed to sell the block of ice to the eskimos - now comes the hard part where it melts and there is no gold brick inside. What will she do when there is insufficient funds to pay for the promises, have a little cry and blame it all on the democrats? How will she justify trying to return bro's 46 billion, when there is insufficient to fund the free health scheme - tell them that you are a sacrifice to the great leader? And the UDD boys are high on the party list, which normally means cabinet positions. What a government to offer to your neighbours and the world - a pack of liars and terrorists. May be she'll do what most of the western countries do when they can't pay for their committments - borrow it. Lets face it, Thailand is a good financial risk and has a good credit rating, it pays to ensure the people are kept happy (everyone) - so borrow now and repay at leisure (and cheaply in the long run as the dollar continues to slide too I guess). Thai constitution limits both deficit and borrowing to a set percentage of GDP (economic thread, 2-3 days ago) and close to limits now. B200 billion promised rice subsidy is a HUGE slug on a B1,900 billion budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 (edited) Well they managed to sell the block of ice to the eskimos - now comes the hard part where it melts and there is no gold brick inside. What will she do when there is insufficient funds to pay for the promises, have a little cry and blame it all on the democrats? How will she justify trying to return bro's 46 billion, when there is insufficient to fund the free health scheme - tell them that you are a sacrifice to the great leader? And the UDD boys are high on the party list, which normally means cabinet positions. What a government to offer to your neighbours and the world - a pack of liars and terrorists. May be she'll do what most of the western countries do when they can't pay for their committments - borrow it. Lets face it, Thailand is a good financial risk and has a good credit rating, it pays to ensure the people are kept happy (everyone) - so borrow now and repay at leisure (and cheaply in the long run as the dollar continues to slide too I guess). Thai constitution limits both deficit and borrowing to a set percentage of GDP (economic thread, 2-3 days ago) and close to limits now. B200 billion promised rice subsidy is a HUGE slug on a B1,900 billion budget. As far as I know, it is limited to 50% of GDP, and the current level is 41% http://www.bdo-thaitax.com/bdo/in-the-news/3260 A budget bill for fiscal 2012 will need to be submitted after an administration is formed following this coming Sunday's general election.The current Democrat-led government plans public spending of Bt2.25 trillion against a revenue projection of Bt1.9 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of Bt350 billion for fiscal 2012. However, should the Pheu Thai Party form the next government, it could increase budget spending by borrowing more. According to the law, the government can borrow up to 20 per cent of the annual budget plus 80 per cent of principal debt repayment. "The new government could borrow about Bt450 billion, or it may choose to increase annual budget spending and revise estimated revenue upwards," said Naris. I think the taxman may be quite busy in the next year or so. And then after that privatisation. I heard TTM is first on the chopping block because he wasn't able to complete the deal to move it to Chiangmai after having bought the land and done the deal with the Chinese for equipment. Payback. Edited July 4, 2011 by Thai at Heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzMick Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Thai constitution limits both deficit and borrowing to a set percentage of GDP (economic thread, 2-3 days ago) and close to limits now. B200 billion promised rice subsidy is a HUGE slug on a B1,900 billion budget. As far as I know, it is limited to 50% of GDP, and the current level is 41% http://www.bdo-thait...n-the-news/3260 A budget bill for fiscal 2012 will need to be submitted after an administration is formed following this coming Sunday's general election.The current Democrat-led government plans public spending of Bt2.25 trillion against a revenue projection of Bt1.9 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of Bt350 billion for fiscal 2012. However, should the Pheu Thai Party form the next government, it could increase budget spending by borrowing more. According to the law, the government can borrow up to 20 per cent of the annual budget plus 80 per cent of principal debt repayment. "The new government could borrow about Bt450 billion, or it may choose to increase annual budget spending and revise estimated revenue upwards," said Naris. I think the taxman may be quite busy in the next year or so. And then after that privatisation. I heard TTM is first on the chopping block because he wasn't able to complete the deal to move it to Chiangmai after having bought the land and done the deal with the Chinese for equipment. Payback. Not the taxman - she promised to reduce taxes! what do you think will happen if they keep borrowing money to give rice-growers a price above world market? And what will happen if they stop paying the subsidy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpoint Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 ... That doesn't mean that she won't make a perfectly capable PM. Look at who they have had over the last 25 years. Hardly paragons of political or economic success other than a couple. And they weren't all blessed with any particular level of academic or business acumen. ... That is a very interesting thought. Just who has been PM in the past 25 years. Who have the people voted for, or had thrust upon them? I've seen them all. Off the top of my head: Pre 1988: Prem . 1988 - 1991: Chatichai 1991 - April 1992: Anand. April 1992 - May 1992: Suchinda May 1992 - September 1992: Anand 1992 - 1995: Chuan 1995 - 1996: Banharn 1996 - 1997: Chavalit 1997- 2001: Chuan 2001 - 2006: Thaksin. Sept 2006 - 2007: Suryad 2007 - 2008: Samak 2008: Somchai 2008 - 2011: Abhisit You're right, not a lot of paragons in that bunch. The people have a lot to answer for. To be honest, in my opinion the best of them was the twice appointed Anand (once by the military following the 1991 coup, and once officially by the parliamentary council, although everyone at the time knew who really did so, following Black May 1992). To anyone who wasn't here in those pre-internet, pre-satellite TV (at least in Thailand) days, when local news all came from the Bangkok Post, Nation and occasional english language bulletins on Radio Thailand, and international news came via short wave radio, it may be surprising that a non elected man is my choice, but the palpable sigh of relief from the nation following his second appointment was clearly evident. (Now the 1991 coup was a real coup. The army took over every local means of dispersing the news. The papers arrived with large sections left blank where stories had been censored. None of your namby pamby 2006, find out what's happening on the internet business). Ah, the good old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 (edited) Not the taxman - she promised to reduce taxes! what do you think will happen if they keep borrowing money to give rice-growers a price above world market? And what will happen if they stop paying the subsidy? I think they will use the issue of saying that taxes have come down, so you better well bloody pay. There is a massive amount of untouched tax money out there in the country. As for paying the guaranteed price, they will pay, and it will cost the country some money. The money will go out into the countryside, and the economy will move around. 41% as a level of borrowing is more than serviceable, with GDP predicted to grow 5% or more this year. As for whether the rice price increase will be acceptable to the market, lets see. http://www.interaksyon.com/article/5081/thailand-could-be-dislodged-as-no-1-rice-exporter-if-opposition-wins Traders and exporters said world rice prices were likely to rise anyway in coming months on fresh demand from China as a result of drought, which is also affecting parts of the United States and Europe. Analysts warned this could stoke food inflation in the second half of 2011. Rainfall in Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Shanghai, China's main rice-producing areas, is the lowest since 1954, the country's meteorological office said, though torrential rains are expected soon. "Global prices may rise on a possible increase in demand, but they definitely wouldn't rise as high as Thai prices, which would be distorted by government intervention," Chookiat said. This is the crux of the matter. Thailand's benchmark rice hit a record high of $1,080 per ton in April 2008. ..... That intervention price is around 80 percent above the current market of 8,000 baht per ton. The effect would be to propel export prices to as high as $870 a ton, more than 74 percent above the current $500, traders said. Seems like there may be a plan to move away from endlessly chasing the title of being the number one rice exporter in the world. Is that title really that important? http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_16/b4224009283905.htm Why Thai Rice Production May DeclineFacing greater competition, the world's leading rice exporter is determined to pull back on production Edited July 4, 2011 by Thai at Heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now