Cost Effectiveness Of Lpg And Ngv In Doubt?

[MoonRiverOasis]

Apparently Pheu Thai plan to forge ahead with their policy to scrap the state oil fund in Thailand.

The current fund is cashed up by levies on gasoline and diesel ranging from 1.67 Baht/L to 7.00 Baht/L. These funds are then used to subsidize the price of LPG and CNG (NGV), and at times to subsidize the price of diesel to keep it at the 30 Baht/L level.

All of this is earmarked to soon end with the scrapping of the scheme, meaning that diesel and gasoline prices will fall, but LPG and CNG will raise sharply. Just how sharply is hard to tell, as the unsubsidized market value of these fuels is rarely published.

How this will impact the price of E85 is also yet unclear.

[fredob43]

I bet the cab driver's won't be to pleased they voted for them.

[katabeachbum]

LPG has been imported for decades

Past couple of years 25% of all CNG used has been imported, most from Burma and Laos as I recall

market price for both is on average 15-18 baht, LPG in liter, CNG in Kg, ad transportation cost from harbour to pump, which is substantial for LPG and extreme for CNG

As long as Ethanol is domestic product, one can assume they will stimulate to more of it being used

[MoonRiverOasis]

To add salt to the wound, a week or so ago a natural gas pipe from the gulf of Thailand to the mainland ruptured, and as a result some 3000MWH of electricity generation is offline. Last week the Thai press were warning of immediate electricity price rises as a result of this - and surely it has to effect the true market price of the soon to be unsubsidized fuels as well..

Edited July 5, 2011 by MoonRiverOasis

[MikeyIdea]

I support removing subsidies on transportation - there is in my eyes no benefit in artificial pricingin this area - let prices adjust

[katabeachbum]

I support removing subsidies on transportation - there is in my eyes no benefit in artificial pricingin this area - let prices adjust

agree, remove all subsidicing of fuel including cooking gas (LPG).

If one wants to stimulate use of domestic fuels like Ethanol or CNG, do it on vehicle purchase and annual road tax and possibly discount Insurance, not fuel

[MoonRiverOasis]

Just found the relevant docs after a bit of digging around govt sites, here's the levies as of yesterday:

• Gasoline 95: 7.50 Baht levy
• Gasoline 91: 6.70 Baht levy
• Gasohol 95: 2.40 Baht levy
• Gasohol 91: 0.10 Baht levy
• E20: 1.30 Baht subsidy
• E85: 13.5 Baht subsidy
• Diesel: 2.40 Baht levy

EDIT: Updated to include all other taxes and retail margins:

Based on yesterday's prices, here's how it would work out if the state oil fund was already scrapped, and no other Ethanol subsidy/incentive was introduced in it's place:

• Gasoline 95: 38.82 (currently 46.84)
• Gasoline 91: 35.47 (42.64)
• Gasohol 95: 35.17 (37.74)
• Gasohol 91: 35.13 (35.24)
• E20: 35.73 (34.34)
• E85: 36.77 (22.32)
• Diesel: 27.42 (29.99)

Still searching for official/up-to-date info on LPG and CNG...

Edited July 5, 2011 by MoonRiverOasis

[culicine]

Might go back to using gasoline 91 instead of gasohol 91 if those prices come to reality:)

[seriouseats]

even gasoline 95.

[WarpSpeed]

Yeah there's no LPG listing there but I doubt it will go up much more then it is. Even if it goes up double to 20 per litre I'll still make out as the 95 benzine I currently use for my alternate fuel will go down by 10 baht per and I doubt LP will go up that much, so in the end it's more money in my pocket with an LP conversion, even with the subsidies removed, not less..

Looks like potentially good news, I'll take it ..

Edited July 5, 2011 by WarpSpeed

[katabeachbum]

low income Thais all use 91 gasoline for their waves and agriculture machines

for years they have been paying 20% levy, for higher income groups 95 gasohol to use in their Vios and Camrys and Benz

I say dump the system today

[thaicbr]

But they are only scrapping it for diesel, normal 91 and 95. not all fuel.

My guessing is that most big Merc's, Bmw's and exotic cars run better on 95,

hence the discount

[Haooo]

I don't think this will happen. Who will benefits by doing so ?

[seriouseats]

But they are only scrapping it for diesel, normal 91 and 95. not all fuel.

My guessing is that most big Merc's, Bmw's and exotic cars run better on 95,

hence the discount

Thaksin preparing for his come back.. those pesky fuel prices for his imports

[MikeyIdea]

I don't think this will happen. Who will benefits by doing so ?

Yingluck says that she is serious. Watching channel 3 news yesterday, I am sure that she will go ahead.

It's a rather wide area, don't know how she will move around the levies and taxes though. She will lose a bit of popularity if she increases price of cooking gas too much, that's for sure. On the other side, she has a comfortable majority and it's a long time to the next election so she could go ahead with that too.

[BSJ]

Politican's all over the world have a natural affinity to backflips and sidesteps. Why would LOS be any different!

[katabeachbum]

I don't think this will happen. Who will benefits by doing so ?

Yingluck says that she is serious. Watching channel 3 news yesterday, I am sure that she will go ahead.

It's a rather wide area, don't know how she will move around the levies and taxes though. She will lose a bit of popularity if she increases price of cooking gas too much, that's for sure. On the other side, she has a comfortable majority and it's a long time to the next election so she could go ahead with that too.

Presently cooking gas is like 10 baht/liter while same product at a pump is like 12-13 baht/liter. For safety reasons they must increase price of cooking gas same time as LPG car gas, to avoid LPG cars driving around with highly unsafe cooking gas bottles in their trunks

[Briggsy]

Thanks, Moonriveroasis, for the informative post.

[keemapoot]

Thanks, Moonriveroasis, for the informative post.

Agreed. MRO, resident guru comes through as always. Interesting topic.

I too, have been wrestling with the numbers of various new vehicle options, including the 320d, 520d, and even the new T6 and Vigo champ. I do put in a lot of mileage weekly, so these issues are important for people like myself. Presently, I have gasahol 91-capable B class vehicles for my weekly drivers, not counting my collector cars, and I'm looking for more long term economy..

Edited July 22, 2011 by keemapoot