Tropical storm Bret forms north of the Bahamas, warning issued

[News_Editor]

Tropical storm Bret forms north of the Bahamas, warning issued

2011-07-18 12:55:26 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical storm Bret formed north of the Bahamas on early Sunday evening, forecasters said, prompting a tropical storm warning for some islands nearby.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Saturday morning when it emerged off the coast of Florida, producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Florida and Georgia coasts. It quickly became better organized on Sunday.

As of 2 a.m. EDT (0600 GMT) on Monday, the center of Bret was located about 75 miles (120 kilometers) northwest of Great Abaco Island, which is part of the Abaco Islands in the northern Bahamas. It is moving toward the southeast near four miles (six kilometers) per hour, with little movement expected until later on Monday.

Bret was initially classified as a tropical depression on Sunday evening, but forecasters later upgraded the system to a tropical storm after receiving data from a U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft which made several passes through the center of the tropical cyclone.

"During those passes, peak flight-level winds of 43 to 45 knots (49 - 51 miles / 79 - 83 kilometers) were recorded along with a few believable stepped-frequency microwave radiometer surface winds just above tropical storm force," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown. "Based on those observations and the development of new convection just northeast of the center around 0000 UTC, the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm at that time."

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at around 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts. "Microwave and satellite imagery show that most of the associated deep convection is located over the eastern semicircle of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear. The shear is forecast to decrease slightly during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow an opportunity for some strengthening," Brown said, although Bret is not expected to become a hurricane.

A tropical storm watch which was issued for Grand Bahama Island and the Abaco Islands on Sunday afternoon was upgraded to a tropical storm warning on early Monday morning as tropical storm conditions began to affect the islands. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

"Bret could produce total rainfall amounts of two to four inches (five to ten centimeters) over the northwest Bahamas," said Brown. "Locally high surf conditions can be expected along northern and western facing beaches in the northwest Bahamas through Monday."

Bret is expected to move to the northeast, away from the Bahamas, later on Monday or early Tuesday.

Bret is the second named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Arlene which impacted the Yucatán Peninsula and other parts of Mexico in late June, killing at least 25 people.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 12 to 18 named storms, with six to ten becoming hurricanes and three to six expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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