Tropical Storm Harvey forms off the coast of Honduras, heads for Belize

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Tropical Storm Harvey forms off the coast of Honduras, heads for Belize

2011-08-20 12:46:37 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Harvey formed off the coast of Honduras on Friday afternoon, forecasters said, prompting tropical storm warnings for several countries. The storm is now expected to become a hurricane.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Monday morning when it emerged as a tropical wave about 325 miles (523 kilometers) east of the Lesser Antilles. It slowly became better organized as it moved through the Caribbean and became a tropical depression on late Thursday before strengthening into a tropical storm on Friday.

As of 11 p.m. EDT on Friday (0300 GMT Saturday), the center of Harvey was located about 95 miles (150 kilometers) east of Isla Roatan, the largest island of Honduras' Bay Islands. The storm is moving towards the west at a speed near 9 miles (15 kilometers) per hour.

Maximum sustained winds of Harvey have increased to near 60 miles (95 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts. "Environmental conditions along the forecast track are conducive for additional strengthening," said NHC warning coordination meteorologist Daniel Brown. "Harvey will be traversing very warm water and shear is expected to remain light. The only inhibiting factor is its close proximity to land."

Brown said the official forecast assumes that Harvey will remain far enough offshore to take advantage of the favorable environment. "The new forecast now calls for Harvey to become a hurricane before reaching the coast of Belize in about 24 hours," he added.

As a result, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras, the coast of Honduras westward from Punta Patuca, the coast of Belize, and the southeastern coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa southward to Chetumal.

Some of the tropical storm warnings are likely to be upgraded to a hurricane warning if Harvey continues to strengthen on early Saturday morning. In addition to the warnings, a tropical storm watch is also in effect for the coast of Guatemala.

"Tropical-storm-force winds are expected over the Bay Islands and along the north coast of Honduras [on early Saturday morning], and over the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by Saturday afternoon," Brown said. "Hurricane-force winds are expected along a portion of the coast of Belize beginning Saturday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along the northern coast of Guatemala on Saturday."

In addition to strong winds, Harvey is also expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches (7.6 to 15.2 centimeters) across Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. In some areas, maximum amounts of 10 inches (25.4 centimeters) are also possible.

"These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially over higher terrain," Brown said. He added that a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) along the coast near and to the north of where Harvey makes landfall. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves," he warned.

After Harvey makes landfall in Belize, the storm is expected to cross into northern Guatemala and then into southern Mexico. "After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and Harvey is likely to become a remnant low over southern Mexico in 2 to 3 days," Brown said.

Brown is the eighth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Gert which formed east of Bermuda on Sunday and dissipated on Tuesday without affecting land.

According to figures released earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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