Thaksin Pushing The Limits

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Thaksin pushing the limits

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Ex-PM's brazen Skype contact with ministers raises questions on how far he will go to undermine the law

Thaksin Shinawatra loves to push the limits, but Wednesday's incident was as if he was attempting to demolish the barriers. His Skype contact with Pheu Thai ministers was the most legally defiant act since his youngest sister became prime minister.

Long-distance communications with his people are not new. Thaksin used video links to rabble-rouse the red shirts, to calm down Pheu Thai politicians and to send open or encoded political messages to whoever was working for him. However, that was when Pheu Thai was in the opposition camp. Wednesday's Skype talks were directed to political office holders, to whom he gave advice on the flood crisis and the economy. Has he gone too far this time?

Critics were quick to point to Prime Minister's Office regulations that prohibit political officials from giving support to people with legal problems - like Thaksin. It's not hard to determine whether listening to his Skype advice constituted "support". What's much harder is the question of what can be done about it.

The line has been blurred for some time now. The visa permission by Japan raised a serious question concerning the foreign minister. Thaksin's visit to Cambodia coincided with trips to that country by political VIPs from Thailand. The Bangkok government under Yingluck Shinawatra has all but sent out an international signal that Thaksin is no longer a much-wanted fugitive.

Now, Thaksin teaching Cabinet members how they should fight floods and revive stimulus policies has taken it to a new level.

No matter the size of the legal controversy this may cause, the political impact could be worse. With Pheu Thai in firm control of various key state apparatuses, and seeking to dominate even more, Yingluck won't lose any sleep over legal threats arising from this furore. First of all, to advance a case against the Skype incident, the issue must be raised by ombudsmen with the Cabinet or the House of Representatives. Neither are unlikely to take the issue anywhere.

The best hope of Thaksin's opponents is for such a case to end up at the National Counter Corruption Commission. That could also be a long shot, considering current political circumstances. The Pheu Thai Party and the Yingluck government have virtually portrayed Thaksin as a political victim, not a legal fugitive. Any legal move against the Skype controversy could refuel the victim-or-fugitive debate and play nicely into the hands of those campaigning to revise Thaksin's status so he can return home without having to suffer punishment.

Legally speaking, it's a matter of "even if it's wrong, so what?" The Pheu Thai camp tried yesterday to defuse a possible future time bomb by insisting that Thaksin was calling to give encouragement and not instruction. So the party's line of defence is clear: Thaksin just logged in to boost Cabinet members' morale and gave a few tips in the process.

However, what Thaksin's brazen move has done to the image and confidence of his own sister may be a different story. Unlike the Cabinet members, there's very thin line between boosting Yingluck's morale and destroying it. Thaksin might want to help her, but end up shattering her self-belief.

"Reading Thaksin's Skype messages ... you have to admit that Yingluck is a far cry from matching her big brother," one analyst said.

Only Thaksin knows why he takes such risks. But the Skype contact followed days of frustration within the ruling party about the performance of its Cabinet members. Party sources claim that many Pheu Thai ministers are moving without focus, and some have adopted an everyone-for-himself attitude. There are allegedly ministers who feel they don't belong. Kittiratt Na-Ranong, for example, has declined to talk at party meetings where, as commerce minister and deputy prime minister, he was supposed to field questions from party MPs.

Rumours have it that all roads are now virtually leading to Thaksin, and things barely progress without him saying that he wants them to happen. As front pages have filled with stories about controversial bureaucratic transfers, Yingluck has been confirmed as having had nothing to do with them. Thaksin, it has been claimed, has swooped down as low as giving "opinions" on reshuffles of middle-ranking officials.

What Thaksin did on Wednesday has reinforced the perception that Yingluck is a prime minister who's barely in charge. But here's probably the most important point of this latest Thaksin controversy: If Yingluck has become discouraged, then pity her. But if she's thankful despite having been exposed once again as a leader who's not in control, it will encourage her brother to move quickly to the next barrier.

-- The Nation 2011-09-23

[Buchholz]

time to update PTP's slogan:

Thaksin Thinks, Thaksin Skypes, Pheu Thai Acts

[FOODLOVER]

Yingluck is a miserable failure. Her brother just proved it! Thanks bro!

[Siam Simon]

Thaksin, as represented by his sister and other associates, just won a general election outright despite his opponents holding all the boss cards? Methinks others are the ones pushing the limits .

[looping]

As frustrating as this whole process is, because we ALL know where it's heading, maybe it's time for us farang to just watch the events unfold and let nature take it's course in Thailand, as it always does. Karma will play it's hand sooner or later, that's my comfort.

Of course, another option is to switch countries as I did, and watch from a safe distance.

[maccaroni man]

TIT

[siampolee]

Yet again we see a first class demonstration of the complete and utter contempt that Thaksin has for Thailand and the Thai people. All these actions are designed to secure a stranglehold on Thailand's finances and to yet further strengthen the rampant corruption and total disregard for the law so visibly demonstrated in the past Thaksin regimes.

The ultimate aim of Thaksin is the establishing of a political Thaksin dynasty much like the current model in North Korea . Thaksin is playing his game with the pawns to be swept from the board as he desires when those pawns have outlived their usefulness to him..

The blatant open admittance of the manipulation (There is no other way to describe it ) of the politicians owned by Thaksin and his P.T.P. ( Personal Thaksin Property) is stunning,

Surely the Thai people must realise that their future is in the balance and they are heading down the road to a despotic reign of financial and physical and mental terrorism due to the megalomaniac acts of Thaksins, his family and the rest of their brown nosing acolytes?

Thaksins dreams will come true and the Thai peoples nightmares will begin in earnest when Thaksin see's Thai killing Thais to further enhance his power struggle for total power .

Thaksin has to be stopped and sadly it seems as if the current government needs to be looked at very carefully to see where the rot is also.

Party sources claim that many Pheu Thai ministers are moving without focus, and some have adopted an everyone-for-himself attitude. There are allegedly ministers who feel they don't belong. Kittiratt Na-Ranong, for example, has declined to talk at party meetings where, as commerce minister and deputy prime minister, he was supposed to field questions from party MPs.

Perhaps the happy family scenario is beginning to fall apart, the above quote does indeed show that not all is well in the corridors of power,

Edited September 23, 2011 by siampolee

[noitom]

Why in the world would a smart and savvy guy like Thaksin make such a blatant move as to call in to a cabinet meeting and tell people what to do? Why would he call that much attention to himself? What kind of advisers does he have? What was he thinking? Geez, boggles the mind.

[noitom]

Thaksin, as represented by his sister and other associates, just won a general election outright despite his opponents holding all the boss cards? Methinks others are the ones pushing the limits .

It's the Chinese with the aces. Why in the world would a smart and savvy guy like Thaksin make such a blatant move as to call in to a cabinet meeting and tell people what to do? Why would he call that much attention to himself? What kind of advisers does he have? What was he thinking? He's smart, does he have superior military backing lined up? Think about it.

[Siripon]

I can understand how Yingluk feels she has to help her brother, but how can she go on claiming her brother is not interfering?

Thaksin must have assured her it won't be for long as anyone with a conscience wouldn't be able to keep up this ludicrous facade for long.

/

[AleG]

I can understand how Yingluk feels she has to help her brother, but how can she go on claiming her brother is not interfering?

Thaksin must have assured her it won't be for long as anyone with a conscience wouldn't be able to keep up this ludicrous facade for long.

/

If she is as much a clone of her brother as claimed, the facade will outlast the Great Pyramid of Giza.

[OzMick]

It would have been a much more interesting story if someone had had the intestinal fortitude (I won't say "Balls" for obvious reasons) to say "Piss off, we're busy" and hang up the phone.

[rametindallas]

I can understand how Yingluk feels she has to help her brother, but how can she go on claiming her brother is not interfering?

Thaksin must have assured her it won't be for long as anyone with a conscience wouldn't be able to keep up this ludicrous facade for long.

/

It's a technique called 'The Big Lie'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie

[YellowFeverCAD]

It would have been a much more interesting story if someone had had the intestinal fortitude (I won't say "Balls" for obvious reasons) to say "Piss off, we're busy" and hang up the phone.

I hope you don't mean Yingluck she was probably very busy making coffee for everyone and asking what the next job her family creates for her will be. Amazing that anybody Thai or otherwise is taking the gov't seriously about anything.

[stagger]

As frustrating as this whole process is, because we ALL know where it's heading, maybe it's time for us farang to just watch the events unfold and let nature take it's course in Thailand, as it always does. Karma will play it's hand sooner or later, that's my comfort.

Of course, another option is to switch countries as I did, and watch from a safe distance.

I also legged it last year for various reasons, this being one of them.

Hope it does not descend into chaos but you got to think that this is where it is headed.

[SICHONSTEVE]

"There are allegedly ministers who feel they don't belong. Kittiratt Na-Ranong, for example, has declined to talk at party meetings where, as commerce minister and deputy prime minister, he was supposed to field questions from party MPs".

Not exactly the actions of a functioning government is it. Perhaps he doesn't feel qualified or able to answer any questions posed to him, which "beggars the question" why, apart from Thaksin wanting him there to promote his own interests, is he IN the job - Ohhh, sorry!!! I think i've just inadvertently answered my own question here!!!:jap:

Edited September 23, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[hanuman1]

I reckon Yingluck's assertion that Thaksin isn't messing with the PTP's agenda is aimed at mollifying a very specific set of powerful people in Thailand, including the unmentionables, rather than the public at large.

If she had announced that the PTP is obeying everything Thaksin says, at least half the Thai electorate would probably be fairly unmoved, if not outright happy, about it.

[RickBradford]

Surely only a matter of time before someone files a lawsuit on this one, and the circus can keep revolving.

Straight after the election, Peua Thai had the best chance to bring some normality to this country -- all they had to do was to keep Thaksin out of the picture. But they haven't, and we're all headed downhill again.

[Pi Sek]

I reckon Yingluck's assertion that Thaksin isn't messing with the PTP's agenda is aimed at mollifying a very specific set of powerful people in Thailand, including the unmentionables, rather than the public at large.

If she had announced that the PTP is obeying everything Thaksin says, at least half the Thai electorate would probably be fairly unmoved, if not outright happy, about it.

Agree with part one - I assume "the public at large" suspect she's doing the opposite of her assertion - but disagree with part two. I think a minority would be happy, another minority would be outraged, but the largest part (don't know if it would still be a minority) wouldn't care.

Samak did make that announcement brazenly, and that was the main reason for the 2008 Yellow protests.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Surely only a matter of time before someone files a lawsuit on this one, and the circus can keep revolving.

Straight after the election, Peua Thai had the best chance to bring some normality to this country -- all they had to do was to keep Thaksin out of the picture. But they haven't, and we're all headed downhill again.

Yes!! I agree!! Yingluck has wasted a glorious opportunity (big time) and I think "the hill" you refer to is more akin to a "steep cliff in all honesty" - headed towards a bottomless pit of obvious turmoil .

Edited September 23, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[Soupdragon]

It's the Chinese with the aces. Why in the world would a smart and savvy guy like Thaksin make such a blatant move as to call in to a cabinet meeting and tell people what to do? Why would he call that much attention to himself? What kind of advisers does he have? What was he thinking? He's smart, does he have superior military backing lined up? Think about it.

Are you suggesting that Thaksin will align Thailand with China and possibly use Chinese military muscle to cement his position if necessary. ? Edited September 23, 2011 by Soupdragon

[SICHONSTEVE]

I reckon Yingluck's assertion that Thaksin isn't messing with the PTP's agenda is aimed at mollifying a very specific set of powerful people in Thailand, including the unmentionables, rather than the public at large.

If she had announced that the PTP is obeying everything Thaksin says, at least half the Thai electorate would probably be fairly unmoved, if not outright happy, about it.

Agree with part one - I assume "the public at large" suspect she's doing the opposite of her assertion - but disagree with part two. I think a minority would be happy, another minority would be outraged, but the largest part (don't know if it would still be a minority) wouldn't care.

Samak did make that announcement brazenly, and that was the main reason for the 2008 Yellow protests.

Definitely DISAGREE with your second assertion, and as to the first - she is lieing, pure and simple "as sure as god made green little apples" or "eggs is eggs" - as she cannot be seen (in the public domain that is) to be kow-towing to her brother's wishes and desires. This is despite the fact that it is as obvious to anyone with a brain (and maybe even some without one) that this was going to happen from day 1 of her inauguration!!!!!

[rixalex]

Straight after the election, Peua Thai had the best chance to bring some normality to this country -- all they had to do was to keep Thaksin out of the picture. But they haven't, and we're all headed downhill again.

Yep, you really wouldn't have thought it too hard for them to realise, having won the election, that it was in everyone's best interests, even Thaksin's, to just get on with the job of running the country and putting everyone who has been saying that PTP's only purpose is to help Thaksin in their place. Build their credibility and broaden their support first. Then, two or three years down the line, perhaps bring up the subject of letting bygones be bygones regarding Thaksin. Maybe, just maybe, people by that time would be able to accept it. Pushing things through by force now will end up badly for everyone. Thaksin just can't see it though. Pig-headedness in the extreme. Just as he couldn't see it, when he dodged paying taxes on selling his business, and when a cheque made out to a charity for an impressive amount, would have so easily silenced many of his critics and quite possibly out-manoeuvred the generals and their plans for the coup. He is his own downfall.

[djlest]

Mr T does not just want to come back to Thailand - that's just not his style...

When he steps back on Thai soil

He wants a massive greeting of red hands to be waiting for him -

to protect him - and to sweep the country from top to bottom.

And to ensure the Peau Thai never lose again - by corrupting the system good and propper...

There is no way in hell he just wants to step back quietly - This skype call is his message...

LOOK AT ME! i am fearless - I am in charge - you voted me in really - They fell for it!

Now I am coming back - and will reward you all for helping me...

He wants to step back with an absolute explosion - as if he is the New King to save Thailand.

His ego ran away with his sanity and greed a long time ago!

Even Chuvit would have been a lesser evil...

[Pi Sek]

I reckon Yingluck's assertion that Thaksin isn't messing with the PTP's agenda is aimed at mollifying a very specific set of powerful people in Thailand, including the unmentionables, rather than the public at large.

If she had announced that the PTP is obeying everything Thaksin says, at least half the Thai electorate would probably be fairly unmoved, if not outright happy, about it.

Agree with part one - I assume "the public at large" suspect she's doing the opposite of her assertion - but disagree with part two. I think a minority would be happy, another minority would be outraged, but the largest part (don't know if it would still be a minority) wouldn't care.

Samak did make that announcement brazenly, and that was the main reason for the 2008 Yellow protests.

Definitely DISAGREE with your second assertion, and as to the first - she is lieing, pure and simple "as sure as god made green little apples" or "eggs is eggs" - as she cannot be seen (in the public domain that is) to be kow-towing to her brother's wishes and desires. This is despite the fact that it is as obvious to anyone with a brain (and maybe even some without one) that this was going to happen from day 1 of her inauguration!!!!!

I would like to disagree with my second assertion, but I think that the national opinion (which is a mean average of very different regional opinions) is that the largest portion of Thai society is frankly bored by the division and are prepared to compromise the values of right & wrong to heal it.

[hammered]

The really interesting thing ot think about is why is he doing something as brazen as this. We never get to see what goes on behind the scenes, but we know this a huge power struggle and this is a very high risk strategy. Why adopt one as high risk? Assuming of course the real story is as we are told in the English Language Thai media, which is not an assumption we can be sure on

[Pi Sek]

The really interesting thing ot think about is why is he doing something as brazen as this. We never get to see what goes on behind the scenes, but we know this a huge power struggle and this is a very high risk strategy. Why adopt one as high risk? Assuming of course the real story is as we are told in the English Language Thai media, which is not an assumption we can be sure on

Indeed.

Does he actually want a coup (serious question)? You've said yourself that a coup is not a viable option at this point, because public sentiment would be so against it. But these suggestions that he is offering advice, support, even instruction to the government, but is not involved in politics are making him out to be like someone "above" politics, or at least outside the present political spectrum. President, for example.

If a coup happens, I fear that it will be a very bloody one, and will make the events of last year look like a playground scuffle. No doubt its outcome, if it happens, will prompt a significant change in bureaucracy. Possibly this has been the plan all along. Remember the 100 Baht Thaksin bank notes? Plans of ruling for 20 years? I don't want to follow this scary line of thought, but one can't ignore current events.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I reckon Yingluck's assertion that Thaksin isn't messing with the PTP's agenda is aimed at mollifying a very specific set of powerful people in Thailand, including the unmentionables, rather than the public at large.

If she had announced that the PTP is obeying everything Thaksin says, at least half the Thai electorate would probably be fairly unmoved, if not outright happy, about it.

Agree with part one - I assume "the public at large" suspect she's doing the opposite of her assertion - but disagree with part two. I think a minority would be happy, another minority would be outraged, but the largest part (don't know if it would still be a minority) wouldn't care.

Samak did make that announcement brazenly, and that was the main reason for the 2008 Yellow protests.

Definitely DISAGREE with your second assertion, and as to the first - she is lieing, pure and simple "as sure as god made green little apples" or "eggs is eggs" - as she cannot be seen (in the public domain that is) to be kow-towing to her brother's wishes and desires. This is despite the fact that it is as obvious to anyone with a brain (and maybe even some without one) that this was going to happen from day 1 of her inauguration!!!!!

I would like to disagree with my second assertion, but I think that the national opinion (which is a mean average of very different regional opinions) is that the largest portion of Thai society is frankly bored by the division and are prepared to compromise the values of right & wrong to heal it.

I meant "hanuman's" second assertion "pi sek" and not yours - maybe I didn't make this clear!!!

However, I'm not sure that it is as simple as you make out, in you using your "boredom" factor implies. I personally think that it is as divisive as it has ever been and whichever party is in power (by whatever means they have achieved this power) the other faction will not stop until they've "turned the ball-game" back in their favour. It is an undoubtedly unstable state-of-affairs with no resolution in sight I'm afraid - just like between Israel and Lebanon .

[Siripon]

The really interesting thing ot think about is why is he doing something as brazen as this. We never get to see what goes on behind the scenes, but we know this a huge power struggle and this is a very high risk strategy. Why adopt one as high risk? Assuming of course the real story is as we are told in the English Language Thai media, which is not an assumption we can be sure on

He's probably concerned Pheua Thai can't 'do' what Thaksin 'thinks', he dreamt up these impossible to fulfill pledges and now he's worried the public will become disillusioned with Pheua Thai and he won't be able to come back. I see the meetings are to be held every Monday,it gives Thaksin a day before the Cabinet meeting on Tuesdays to hand his orders over to his employees.

Edited September 23, 2011 by Siripon

[hammered]

The really interesting thing ot think about is why is he doing something as brazen as this. We never get to see what goes on behind the scenes, but we know this a huge power struggle and this is a very high risk strategy. Why adopt one as high risk? Assuming of course the real story is as we are told in the English Language Thai media, which is not an assumption we can be sure on

Indeed.

Does he actually want a coup (serious question)? You've said yourself that a coup is not a viable option at this point, because public sentiment would be so against it. But these suggestions that he is offering advice, support, even instruction to the government, but is not involved in politics are making him out to be like someone "above" politics, or at least outside the present political spectrum. President, for example.

If a coup happens, I fear that it will be a very bloody one, and will make the events of last year look like a playground scuffle. No doubt its outcome, if it happens, will prompt a significant change in bureaucracy. Possibly this has been the plan all along. Remember the 100 Baht Thaksin bank notes? Plans of ruling for 20 years? I don't want to follow this scary line of thought, but one can't ignore current events.

I doubt even if blind panic is filling certain members of the tradtional elite, that anyone will risk pulling the coup lever, but this is Thailand.... Who knows what Thaksin wants beyond returning, but dont forget he is easily the most popular politician in the country albeit with a fairly large minority who hate him, and with a return can easily dominate any political environment if he chooses to. I would still guess at a deal where he returns but opts out of politics and maybe has to fight a couple of other court cases, but it is only a stab in the dark with no real knowledge