Red Shirts Mimic Village Tactics Used By Rebels: Thai Opinion

[renaissanc]

Thaksin is clearly digging in so that he and his clan will run the country for many years to come.

When he returns next year, he will have his 111 or so MPs back. He'll then call an election in order to make Thailand a one-party state again, using the Red Shirt Federation to make sure that he wins by a landslide, and he will win by a landslide.

The Red Shirt Federation will spread and become a huge organization in Central, North, and North-East Thailand. Gradually, it'll become too big and unwieldy. There will be in-fighting over the financial spoils and the direction of the Federation. The Federation will decay and fall apart because it won't be based on national unity, a spirit of Win-Win, morality, and ethics, but instead on corruption, power, cronyism, self-aggrandisement, and the aggrandisement of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Even the rural folks will gradually become disillusioned by Thaksin, particularly as the world economy takes a beating and the world's environment changes dramatically, causing the Thai people great suffering.

The Opposition will become stronger and take advantage of the divisions in the Red Shirt organization. There will be massive demonstrations and street battles between the Opposition groups and the well-organized army of Red Shirts. Thousands will die, and Thaksin will be forced to leave the country for the last time. This time, he will not be able to return and stir up trouble ever again.

There is nothing in this scenario that hasn't played out hundreds of times in human history when greedy, power-hungry people come along.

[animatic]

As long as the Red Shirts cannot accept a different opinion in their own villages, there will never be true democracy.

And if that is not the whole point in one sentence, I don't know what is...

Agreed. This is the old school old school 30-60 years past Communist indoctrination system,

being used undercover of a Democracy façade, and sinister is not the least apt description for it.

It's said Thaksin has been talking against it. I suspect he sees his power mechanism is spinning out of his control.

He clearly loves control. Oops T.

Even that Democracy facade is old school.

Well in this case the façade is not even correct.

[h90]

Thaksin is clearly digging in so that he and his clan will run the country for many years to come.

When he returns next year, he will have his 111 or so MPs back. He'll then call an election in order to make Thailand a one-party state again, using the Red Shirt Federation to make sure that he wins by a landslide, and he will win by a landslide.

The Red Shirt Federation will spread and become a huge organization in Central, North, and North-East Thailand. Gradually, it'll become too big and unwieldy. There will be in-fighting over the financial spoils and the direction of the Federation. The Federation will decay and fall apart because it won't be based on national unity, a spirit of Win-Win, morality, and ethics, but instead on corruption, power, cronyism, self-aggrandisement, and the aggrandisement of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Even the rural folks will gradually become disillusioned by Thaksin, particularly as the world economy takes a beating and the world's environment changes dramatically, causing the Thai people great suffering.

The Opposition will become stronger and take advantage of the divisions in the Red Shirt organization. There will be massive demonstrations and street battles between the Opposition groups and the well-organized army of Red Shirts. Thousands will die, and Thaksin will be forced to leave the country for the last time. This time, he will not be able to return and stir up trouble ever again.

There is nothing in this scenario that hasn't played out hundreds of times in human history when greedy, power-hungry people come along.

Possible, but look at Nordkorea there the red model hold out pretty long.

If your massive demonstrations will be a few years late, the army will be red and can easily surpress any movement.

If Thaksin is successful it may need 5-50 years to get rid of the dicatorship.

[473geo]

Where you have discontent and poverty, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life.

Where you have used the military to maintain economic imbalance, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where you have consistently ignored the consequences of the above, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where the alternative offered is more of the same, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

[OzMick]

I have heard of the threats before. Not of a whole family being killed, but threats nonetheless, implied or otherwise. It's only ever likely to be anecdotal stuff though, and so it goes that some will believe in it being quite plausible, while others will dismiss is as being fabricated lies all part of some smear attempt.

There's a huge difference between peer pressure (which I can well believe) and the threat to kill a family.

How very useful that it is all "anecdotal stuff" and thus free of any kind of proof requirement.In fact it would be quite straight forward to get to the bottom of this, one way or the other.

Actually I had a Thai friend who participated in the red occupation last year.He was never asked to submit his identity card to the organisers, nor was anyone he knew.So we know that much at least of the original report is suspect.

Only one? Next thing you'll tell us is that he wasn't paid for attendance, because that is all just a myth put out by the anti-democratic forces.

Did you ever ask him why he waited 27 months to stage an anti-coup protest?

[rixalex]

How very useful that it is all "anecdotal stuff" and thus free of any kind of proof requirement.In fact it would be quite straight forward to get to the bottom of this, one way or the other.

How would you get to the bottom of it, short of somebody having the threat video taped?

Actually I had a Thai friend who participated in the red occupation last year.He was never asked to submit his identity card to the organisers, nor was anyone he knew.So we know that much at least of the original report is suspect.

If you want to dismiss other people's anecdotal stuff as a lie that is fine, but what then is the point of giving your own, since it is also surely fabricated nonsense?

[animatic]

Thaksin is clearly digging in so that he and his clan will run the country for many years to come.

When he returns next year, he will have his 111 or so MPs back. He'll then call an election in order to make Thailand a one-party state again, using the Red Shirt Federation to make sure that he wins by a landslide, and he will win by a landslide.

The Red Shirt Federation will spread and become a huge organization in Central, North, and North-East Thailand. Gradually, it'll become too big and unwieldy. There will be in-fighting over the financial spoils and the direction of the Federation. The Federation will decay and fall apart because it won't be based on national unity, a spirit of Win-Win, morality, and ethics, but instead on corruption, power, cronyism, self-aggrandisement, and the aggrandisement of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Even the rural folks will gradually become disillusioned by Thaksin, particularly as the world economy takes a beating and the world's environment changes dramatically, causing the Thai people great suffering.

The Opposition will become stronger and take advantage of the divisions in the Red Shirt organization. There will be massive demonstrations and street battles between the Opposition groups and the well-organized army of Red Shirts. Thousands will die, and Thaksin will be forced to leave the country for the last time. This time, he will not be able to return and stir up trouble ever again.

There is nothing in this scenario that hasn't played out hundreds of times in human history when greedy, power-hungry people come along.

You have left out :

That the architects of this never had Thaksins plans at heart, but their own aims to create a socialist state in the image of Viet Nam and CHaina, of not Hong Kong under China.

The imploding of the Red Shirt Federation will be by design, using the natural greed of the players against each other, but making sure those with a long view rest snuggly in control positions. Thaksin has created a beast beyond his reckoning. The old school reds in his Red organization have been happy to ride his self-blinded, capitalist coattails into creating the network the long needed and were denied in the 70's. They will continue until they win or ar stomped out like before.

I think the real questions are:

How far can they go?

Who will be the symbolic, but real martyrs

that get caught up in this, and get cast aside?

How many little people will be sacrificed for this 'revolution'?

A 'revolution' so late in the game that the old communist states are turing capitalist, but these Thailand Red Ideologues have apparently never noticed this, imaging they will finally do it right, or are in abject denial of the worlds changes.

Edited October 15, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

... Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Agreed to raise the living standard which essentially means removed all the politicians to get their sticky fingers out of every pie.

Thaksin has NEVER been one to take a bit part in anything.

Megalomaniacs can never take a back seat.

Just seeing what lengths he has gone to to grab back power and that makes it quite clear.

[OzMick]

Where you have discontent and poverty, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life.

Where you have used the military to maintain economic imbalance, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where you have consistently ignored the consequences of the above, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where the alternative offered is more of the same, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Solution......... raise the standard of living.............not as easily done as said. The problem is that a large portion of the Thai population are employed in one industry in a very inefficient manner, and as the returns aren't huge to start with, they end up with very little remuneration for their efforts. So to raise their standard of living, you either have to increase efficiency by broad-acre farming or subsidise their lifestyle. Resistant to change, those engaged in rice farming opt for the latter increasing their standard of living marginally while depleting the Treasury of the funds needed to make fundamental improvements such as better education systems, transport infrastructure and flood management which might actually improve the standard of living for the whole nation.

Near-poverty and lack of education do indeed make them easy to manipulate by false promises. Do you think while some are standing in water up to their waste, looking at the rice crop that just drowned, they might start to understand the bigger picture? Or will they keep counting down the 6 months to when they are going to be rich?

[473geo]

Well if I was the Democrats I would be organising every person I possibly could, to donate money, time, and resources towards the flood relief

And come the next election I would be rolling out the videos and photographic evidence of our actions to assist when the country needs us

[h90]

Well in this case the façade is not even correct.

If you read some history....it is a complete copy/paste in average quality. Actually boring, I would expect a few new ideas at least.

[473geo]

Where you have discontent and poverty, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life.

Where you have used the military to maintain economic imbalance, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where you have consistently ignored the consequences of the above, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where the alternative offered is more of the same, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Solution......... raise the standard of living.............not as easily done as said. The problem is that a large portion of the Thai population are employed in one industry in a very inefficient manner, and as the returns aren't huge to start with, they end up with very little remuneration for their efforts. So to raise their standard of living, you either have to increase efficiency by broad-acre farming or subsidise their lifestyle. Resistant to change, those engaged in rice farming opt for the latter increasing their standard of living marginally while depleting the Treasury of the funds needed to make fundamental improvements such as better education systems, transport infrastructure and flood management which might actually improve the standard of living for the whole nation.

Near-poverty and lack of education do indeed make them easy to manipulate by false promises. Do you think while some are standing in water up to their waste, looking at the rice crop that just drowned, they might start to understand the bigger picture? Or will they keep counting down the 6 months to when they are going to be rich?

I think you will find not too many on the forum agreed with raising the minimum wage (but to be fair there were those who proposed a less rapid rise)

Rather shows a lack of vision and understanding don't you think

There is a good sense of community and sharing in Thailand, the red shirt villages are just a way of tapping into what is already in place. Of course there is now the basis to spread this type of action........simply by increasing the standard of living in the red shirt districts......others will follow

Edited October 15, 2011 by 473geo

[h90]

Well if I was the Democrats I would be organising every person I possibly could, to donate money, time, and resources towards the flood relief

And come the next election I would be rolling out the videos and photographic evidence of our actions to assist when the country needs us

And PTP offers a new tablet PC, 400 Baht minimum Income and 1000 Baht vote buying and nobody will be interested in 5 year old pictures.

[Arkady]

"Red-shirt villages are the heart of the campaign to fight for the return of democracy for the people............. Each red-shirt village will have a sign with picture of .... Thaksin."

The scary part is that this idiot doesn't understand the contradiction in these 2 statements. Someone should tell him that there was an election 3 months ago - but maybe that's not what he means when he talks of "democracy".

This the same as communist governments equating their one party state with democracy, as in German Democratic Republic, Lao Democratic Republic etc.

[473geo]

... Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Agreed to raise the living standard which essentially means removed all the politicians to get their sticky fingers out of every pie.

Thaksin has NEVER been one to take a bit part in anything.

Megalomaniacs can never take a back seat.

Just seeing what lengths he has gone to to grab back power and that makes it quite clear.

The acceptable solution at the moment would be to allow Thaksin back to the table as an equal, but no more than that. I expect the power brokers are evaluating this possibilty.......can be achieved? I don't know......he is outplaying them at the moment

[473geo]

Well if I was the Democrats I would be organising every person I possibly could, to donate money, time, and resources towards the flood relief

And come the next election I would be rolling out the videos and photographic evidence of our actions to assist when the country needs us

And PTP offers a new tablet PC, 400 Baht minimum Income and 1000 Baht vote buying and nobody will be interested in 5 year old pictures.

The Democrats need evidence they can deliver......even while in opposition.........then they have a footing to criticise any non delivery of PTP as unfulfilled empty promises.........

Either way this approach can only be good for the country

[renaissanc]

I foresee significant budget allocations being used to entice villages to join the Federation in all regions. Thailand will become divided clearly and officially.

But disunity breaks a fundamental law of nature for an organism, and this will be Thaksin's downfall. You just can't break laws of nature without consequences.

The seeds of Thaksin's destruction are built into his Red Shirt Federation. Surely he must see this or has his desire for power and money blinded him completely? He had better not sell his home in Dubai.

[h90]

Well if I was the Democrats I would be organising every person I possibly could, to donate money, time, and resources towards the flood relief

And come the next election I would be rolling out the videos and photographic evidence of our actions to assist when the country needs us

And PTP offers a new tablet PC, 400 Baht minimum Income and 1000 Baht vote buying and nobody will be interested in 5 year old pictures.

The Democrats need evidence they can deliver......even while in opposition.........then they have a footing to criticise any non delivery of PTP as unfulfilled empty promises.........

Either way this approach can only be good for the country

Past is not interesting for people if they can gain something in future....It won't work. It will work say 2 month from the floods, but not 5 years later.

Edit: it is more efficient to save the money and pay everyone 500 baht cash who promise to vote for the democrats just before the election

Edited October 15, 2011 by h90

[OzMick]

Where you have discontent and poverty, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life.

Where you have used the military to maintain economic imbalance, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where you have consistently ignored the consequences of the above, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Where the alternative offered is more of the same, people are able to manipulate with promises of a better life

Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Solution......... raise the standard of living.............not as easily done as said. The problem is that a large portion of the Thai population are employed in one industry in a very inefficient manner, and as the returns aren't huge to start with, they end up with very little remuneration for their efforts. So to raise their standard of living, you either have to increase efficiency by broad-acre farming or subsidise their lifestyle. Resistant to change, those engaged in rice farming opt for the latter increasing their standard of living marginally while depleting the Treasury of the funds needed to make fundamental improvements such as better education systems, transport infrastructure and flood management which might actually improve the standard of living for the whole nation.

Near-poverty and lack of education do indeed make them easy to manipulate by false promises. Do you think while some are standing in water up to their waste, looking at the rice crop that just drowned, they might start to understand the bigger picture? Or will they keep counting down the 6 months to when they are going to be rich?

I think you will find not too many on the forum agreed with raising the minimum wage (but to be fair there were those who proposed a less rapid rise)

Rather shows a lack of vision and understanding don't you think

There is a good sense of community and sharing in Thailand, the red shirt villages are just a way of tapping into what is already in place. Of course there is now the basis to spread this type of action........simply by increasing the standard of living in the red shirt districts......others will follow

More like a lack of comprehension ! I wasn't talking about the B300/day minimum wage (only fool's gold anyway) but Thaksin's promise that if PTP was elected, everybody would be rich in 6 months. Do you prefer not to remember that bit of idiot fodder?

".....simply by increasing the standard of living in the red shirt districts..." Do me a favour - hold your breath while you wait, and don't get worried when you start to turn blue.

[OzMick]

... Solution......... raise the standard of living

AND

Give Thaksin a 'bit' part, with heavy penalties for stepping too far into the limelight

Agreed to raise the living standard which essentially means removed all the politicians to get their sticky fingers out of every pie.

Thaksin has NEVER been one to take a bit part in anything.

Megalomaniacs can never take a back seat.

Just seeing what lengths he has gone to to grab back power and that makes it quite clear.

The acceptable solution at the moment would be to allow Thaksin back to the table as an equal, but no more than that. I expect the power brokers are evaluating this possibilty.......can be achieved? I don't know......he is outplaying them at the moment

Or they could shoot him.

[473geo]

I foresee significant budget allocations being used to entice villages to join the Federation in all regions. Thailand will become divided clearly and officially.

But disunity breaks a fundamental law of nature for an organism, and this will be Thaksin's downfall. You just can't break laws of nature without consequences.

The seeds of Thaksin's destruction are built into his Red Shirt Federation. Surely he must see this or has his desire for power and money blinded him completely? He had better not sell his home in Dubai.

Very difficult to dislodge a government that can legally enhance the lives of it's core support.........why would the government need to divide the country?

[TAWP]

As long as the Red Shirts cannot accept a different opinion in their own villages, there will never be true democracy.

Indeed - I pity the poster that doesn't understand that *any* existing village declaring themselves 100% of *any* political leaning is a step back in a process towards democracy and respect for free speech.

[rixalex]

As long as the Red Shirts cannot accept a different opinion in their own villages, there will never be true democracy.

Indeed - I pity the poster that doesn't understand that *any* existing village declaring themselves 100% of *any* political leaning is a step back in a process towards democracy and respect for free speech.

Not understanding it to be a step back is amazing enough. Declaring it a step forward is on another wilder plane altogether.

[Jawnie]

Thanks for this. May I suggest your relative was a bit weak-minded and naive...there are thugs like this in every political crowd, even the government and the military.

Your relative should have moved on up the line in order to get the ID returned, rather than staying on for additional weeks or months. I sympathize with this scenario but somehow I find it hard to believe in full.

Perhaps I'm being naive but I also doubt that staying and participating for an extended period was the only option remaining for your relative.

In the grander scheme, yes, there are thugs like this in every crowd - even the US has them now during "Occupy Wall Street". There are lots of people who go to those things with the primary purpose of venting their cruelty, with the political ideas being secondary or simply the 'kindling wood' for inflaming their cruelty. Sounds like your relative met some of those folks.

This is hardly a good reason, though, to demonize an opposition group whose elected government was stolen by a military coup.

It is possible to be intolerant and right, but it is not possible to be intolerant and a democracy.

Red shirt villages are a living oxymoron the same as "jumbo shrimp" and "military intelligence" are verbal oxymorons. This government sactioned and increasing polarization is scary. I fear for the country and I fear for the very people whose niavete is being used to enslave themselves.

This can only happen because there's a huge difference between what is being said and what is being done. If I could rely on the words alone, I, too would be a staunch Red Shirt. But I have been here long enough to see the actions. I was there when things happened, and I am now listening to the reports of those events and I can see that there is very little connection. The Red Shirt leaders talk a good story, but they live a different one.

I have a relative who joined the red shirt Bangkok rallies. He was politically disinterested, but temporarily unemployed due to the season. He planned on taking the free bus to Bangkok, spending a few days having a good time, and making some money. What could be wrong with that? Weeks later when he asked for his identity card back so he could go home to his family, he was told that if he failed to show up for his daily pay in the evening, his family would all be killed. The red leaders were convincing enough that my relative continued with them and was still there when the army arrived. The leaders, however, were not.

Talk is cheap, and the political leaders evidently feel the gullible are worth about the same. Organizing into permanent polarized settlements is a dangerous escalation.

[ozzieman05]

The headline should read "Bangkokian fears rural political advocacy because it threatens his political base."

That's all this is. This talk of subverting democracy is ridiculous when both sides do exactly the same thing. One does it through buy voting the other does it through military force.

Or you could say if we have people who are well educated and have knowledge to help the country

As there are more uneducated people living in the country lets bring the whole country down to their level as they have no interest in getting educated

we call this the common denominator

[ozzieman05]

As long as the Red Shirts cannot accept a different opinion in their own villages, there will never be true democracy.

And if that is not the whole point in one sentence, I don't know what is...

Agreed.

This is the old school 30-60 years past Communist Indoctrination System, being used, yet again, this time undercover of a Democracy façade, and sinister is not the least apt description for it. It's said Thaksin has been talking against it. I suspect he sees his power mechanism is spinning out of his control.

He clearly loves control. Oops T.

Many do not see the real danger

when the red shirts feel they no longer need Thaskin as they can make more money by being in Government positions

They will then be what, a hungry dog pack??

[rixalex]

This is hardly a good reason, though, to demonize an opposition group whose elected government was stolen by a military coup.

An opposition group that didn't protest when their "elected" government was stolen by a military coup in 2006, but rather swung into action years later and by pure coincidence, at a time when Thaksin's court case regarding frozen monies was being decided upon.

[hammered]

The reds are going to have a very big say in how Thailand's democracy develops. In many ways it is up to others to come to terms with them as they are prpbably the biggest single social movment in Thailand by a long way and numbers count in democracy.

The irony in those who say, largely without evidence that reds need to accept other opinions in their villages while refusing to accept the reds themsleves is very noticeable.

The only anectdotal evidence I have is that the reds actually tolerate other opinions from people living alongside them or people they know although they are suspicious of outsiders. It is more the old style PTP politicos and canvassers who are a lot less tolerant and potentially violent but they are a very different group in many cases although I guess some use reds to cover all on that side without realsing the real distinctions. Of course the old style canvassers and operatives of other parties are no different from PTP too. It is also a little difficult being a red down south from what some of my southern friends say and I can rememeber when certain areas of Chonburi were very anti and hostile although that has all changed since the incidents of last year.

Times of change worldwide are often times of unpredictability, violence, and heated tempers even when you look back the histories of our countries. Thailand likely isnt unique although to date it hasnt done bad in limiting excesses although not quite so well in admiting to what has been done (all parties).

[gl555]

Thanks for this. May I suggest your relative was a bit weak-minded and naive...there are thugs like this in every political crowd, even the government and the military.

Your relative should have moved on up the line in order to get the ID returned, rather than staying on for additional weeks or months. I sympathize with this scenario but somehow I find it hard to believe in full.

Perhaps I'm being naive but I also doubt that staying and participating for an extended period was the only option remaining for your relative.

In the grander scheme, yes, there are thugs like this in every crowd - even the US has them now during "Occupy Wall Street". There are lots of people who go to those things with the primary purpose of venting their cruelty, with the political ideas being secondary or simply the 'kindling wood' for inflaming their cruelty. Sounds like your relative met some of those folks.

This is hardly a good reason, though, to demonize an opposition group whose elected government was stolen by a military coup.

He gives a perfect example of what kind of people the Red Shirts but you dismiss it as a lie and called the victim 'weak minded and naive'. Perhaps that's the problem with so many Reds. They refuse to believe what kind of animals they have in their organisation and so always belive they're the victims and it's always the other side that are the villains.

Also, if they're being forced into 'supporting' these gangsters because they are 'weak minded and naive' then there's much to say for the majority who voted for PTP then doesn't it?

[rixalex]

The irony in those who say, largely without evidence that reds need to accept other opinions in their villages while refusing to accept the reds themsleves is very noticeable.

The evidence is them labelling entire villages as being of one political persuasion. If that doesn't indicate to you an intolerance of differing opinion, then perhaps it needs for you to experience someone walking up to your door and announcing that as of today, your home and your family within, being declared a certain political affiliation, because that is effectively what the red shirt village idea is all about.

As for people refusing to accept the reds, who exactly is doing that? Nobody can deny their existence. People can though question their motives and their practices, can they not?