expatdreamer Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 (edited) OK, following on from my first post seeking advice on whether to retire at 50, 55, or 60 in Thailand. Some excellent advice provided - thank you. One of the points made in that thread by more than one person is that Thailand is getting more expensive. Now I am also aware that the minimum wage is going up. I have also been led to believe (not sure how accurate) that birth rates are dropping and there are more and more industries creating jobs. Overall it would seem that the economic gap between East and West is slowly but surely closing. So related to my first thread, what I want to know is, for those already there and perhaps have been for a while, or for those that have given this some thought in planning for their future, where do you see Thailand in 10-15 years. Some more specific questions I guess I have are: Is it still going to be a place where someone with a reasonable / modest retirement and savings by Western standard's can live a better life than they would in the West? Will there still be a bar scene / entertainment options such as exist today , or will it be in decline due to other jobs available? Will Western men in their 50s still be in demand (at least in greater demand compared to their demand in the Western world) and be able to go on dates with Thai women in their 20s-30s? Will it still be fun (sanook factor)? Will there still be a big gap between rich and poor (yes I know that exists in every country) but will there be a growing middle class due to increasing education levels and employment opportunities? Will locals still be receptive to having retired Western expats reside in their country? There are all things which might have an impact on those planning to retire to Thailand in the future, so your considered opinion would be appreciated. Thanking you in advance. Time to polish those crystal balls Edited October 21, 2011 by expatdreamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaifkrlim Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 it depends on what is your purpose of retirement and the itinerary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringo77 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It will still be fun if you can afford it, but that is all I know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boater Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 i think Vietnam and Cambodia will take over thailand's retiree base and Backpakers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissie Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 As the so called "western-world" is economically on the decline (as opposed to Asia), this will eventually be reflected in the currency exchange rates. Asian currencies will strenghten agaist the rest of the world. Meaning: A Farang Pensioneer will no more be able to live here on his pension-money alone. Other sources of income will have to fill the gap. This will not happen overnight, but within a time-frame of 10 to 15 years I am convinced that this will be the situation. (Or sooner). I would like to make a point: If anyone ends up here having to scrape the bottom of the barrel financially: This will be the end of "Sanuk and Sabai", or in plain English: The music will stop. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerryk Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 i think Vietnam and Cambodia will take over thailand's retiree base and Backpakers... Don't think the medical infrastructure will be enough for retirees in Cambodia or Vietnam. Even if you go back to the West for major stuff, Thailand can keep you alive till you get home. I thought the backpakers already left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShopBoy Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 same same no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Will there still be a big gap between rich and poor (yes I know that exists in every country) but will there be a growing middle class due to increasing education levels and employment opportunities? A significant gap between the poor and the middle class is necessary for a society to function properly. Europe closed the gap, meaning almost everybody is unable to afford workforce, and Europe is on the decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRescue Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 it depends on what is your purpose of retirement and the itinerary I think his purpose is pretty clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRescue Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 i think Vietnam and Cambodia will take over thailand's retiree base and Backpakers... yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRescue Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Will there still be a big gap between rich and poor (yes I know that exists in every country) but will there be a growing middle class due to increasing education levels and employment opportunities? A significant gap between the poor and the middle class is necessary for a society to function properly. Europe closed the gap, meaning almost everybody is unable to afford workforce, and Europe is on the decline. I see Europe will have to adopt a protectionist system. Large tax on imports from Asia, especially China and India. A step back from the globalisation process. More jobs in the west, manufacturing and agriculture. Personally I dont think this free market stuff works. Note -many people think China is on the verge of a collapse. Also dont forget that emerging markets are very closely tied with the US and the $US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEENTHEREDONETHAT Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It hasn't changed all that much in the last 20 years and I doubt if it will change much in the next 20. Unless the education system changes and kids can ask questions and learn to use logic things will change little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tw25rw Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Burma should be back on the radar by then.. Even if Thailand continues developing, the intrinsic nature of the people won't change. Foreign husbands will still be in demand, though you will have more competition from the Chinese. There are some periods of upheaval and change in high places due/inevitable in that time, so a lot could happen. But it's hard to see the place becoming unaffordable/unwelcoming to someone with enough to live on in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tw25rw Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Note -many people think China is on the verge of a collapse. Like whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garrfeild Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 (edited) I am guessing, but:- Answers 1, Yes but maybe not Thailand! 2, yes there will be 3, the idea that men in thier 50's are in demand by 20 year olds is laughable, 10-20 years ago maybe. They will love you short or long time but forget a relationship unless you have deep pockets! You might have more luck with a thirty something. 4, Probably not once the Thai's realise just how expensive things will be. But depends if you can afford to live here! 5, The gap between rich and poor will widen. possibly causing major problems of which we have seen just the tip of the iceburg. 6, It's questionable if Thai's give a flying F**** as to whether farangs live here. Probably your girlfriends family will be, least ways till the money runs out. If you come here to settle then be realistic, have as much fun as you're body will allow. Don't spend more than you can afford to loose. And unless you actually believe the lady your are going to have a relationship with sincerely loves you (not your money and isn't looking to go on spending sprees every time you go to a mall) don't get serious with her! Though I think there are compromises which you will have to live with. But then life is full of compromises, even with western women. Edited October 21, 2011 by garrfeild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theblether Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 (edited) Note -many people think China is on the verge of a collapse. Like whom? Me.......no doubt you are an expert in Chinese internal affairs, so you will be aware of the 200,000 reported riots and protests in the past year. Reported incidentally by the Chinese Communist party led police. You'll also be aware of the 460 million Chinese who are surviving on $1.50 per day, and who are effectively held prisoner in their own land by the internal passport system that denies them access to social support in the major cities and economic areas. On top of that you will also be aware that the endemic corruption that is rife in this ultimate " Rule of Man" country is driving the Communist Party leadership nuts, as the micro-blogging populace are regularly in a state of outrage due to the latest crass abuse by middle ranking to higher ranking police and officials. The Communist Party has sanctioned the execution of about 6,000 criminals in the past year, many of whom were corrupt party officials. I could go on and on but no doubt you know all this already..................... Oh, oh, and you'll also know that manufacturing costs have soared and output is stalling due to weak demand from the West, plus increased competition from Vietnam and India amongst others. Manufacturing is now being repatriated to the West in many cases as the days of cheap Chinese production have gone. I could go on but you know all this already. As for the OP......I think your over-planning. There is an issue that cannot be discussed, the future of Thailand will be affected by that inevitable issue, and no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. If the outcome is neutral, then Thailand will be more prosperous in the time-frame you are talking about. The more prosperous the country becomes then the less impressed it will be with farang money, but I've no doubt you will always find a way of spending your money in Thailand. Edited October 21, 2011 by theblether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr78 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm not a professor or anything, but i think Thai people will be more financially secure due to rising demand for food which will push prices up. This will result in less opportunities for old men to find young ladies, why? Same reason a 50 year old man aint too interested in a 80 year old lady. The bar scene will still be there, only more expencive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRescue Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Note -many people think China is on the verge of a collapse. Like whom? Me.......no doubt you are an expert in Chinese internal affairs, so you will be aware of the 200,000 reported riots and protests in the past year. Reported incidentally by the Chinese Communist party led police. You'll also be aware of the 460 million Chinese who are surviving on $1.50 per day, and who are effectively held prisoner in their own land by the internal passport system that denies them access to social support in the major cities and economic areas. On top of that you will also be aware that the endemic corruption that is rife in this ultimate " Rule of Man" country is driving the Communist Party leadership nuts, as the micro-blogging populace are regularly in a state of outrage due to the latest crass abuse by middle ranking to higher ranking police and officials. The Communist Party has sanctioned the execution of about 6,000 criminals in the past year, many of whom were corrupt party officials. I could go on and on but no doubt you know all this already..................... Oh, oh, and you'll also know that manufacturing costs have soared and output is stalling due to weak demand from the West, plus increased competition from Vietnam and India amongst others. Manufacturing is now being repatriated to the West in many cases as the days of cheap Chinese production have gone. I could go on but you know all this already. As for the OP......I think your over-planning. There is an issue that cannot be discussed, the future of Thailand will be affected by that inevitable issue, and no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. If the outcome is neutral, then Thailand will be more prosperous in the time-frame you are talking about. The more prosperous the country becomes then the less impressed it will be with farang money, but I've no doubt you will always find a way of spending your money in Thailand. Anything could happen, uncertain times. Hedge your bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulian Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I answer Yes to just about all your questions. My first visit to Pattaya was when I was 24 during the Vietnam war. It hasn't changed in 40 years why would you think it would change in the next 20 ? I'm more concerned about my health in the next 15-20 years and if I can keep up with all the fun. If not ...... I can't think of a better way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theblether Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Note -many people think China is on the verge of a collapse. Like whom? Me.......no doubt you are an expert in Chinese internal affairs, so you will be aware of the 200,000 reported riots and protests in the past year. Reported incidentally by the Chinese Communist party led police. You'll also be aware of the 460 million Chinese who are surviving on $1.50 per day, and who are effectively held prisoner in their own land by the internal passport system that denies them access to social support in the major cities and economic areas. On top of that you will also be aware that the endemic corruption that is rife in this ultimate " Rule of Man" country is driving the Communist Party leadership nuts, as the micro-blogging populace are regularly in a state of outrage due to the latest crass abuse by middle ranking to higher ranking police and officials. The Communist Party has sanctioned the execution of about 6,000 criminals in the past year, many of whom were corrupt party officials. I could go on and on but no doubt you know all this already..................... Oh, oh, and you'll also know that manufacturing costs have soared and output is stalling due to weak demand from the West, plus increased competition from Vietnam and India amongst others. Manufacturing is now being repatriated to the West in many cases as the days of cheap Chinese production have gone. I could go on but you know all this already. As for the OP......I think your over-planning. There is an issue that cannot be discussed, the future of Thailand will be affected by that inevitable issue, and no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. If the outcome is neutral, then Thailand will be more prosperous in the time-frame you are talking about. The more prosperous the country becomes then the less impressed it will be with farang money, but I've no doubt you will always find a way of spending your money in Thailand. Anything could happen, uncertain times. Hedge your bets. I agree, and here we have an OP wondering if men in their 50's will still be in demand in Thailand in 15 years time. I don't think there are many people going to bed tonight worrying about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamF Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Underwater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IanForbes Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I think theblether answered most of the OP's questions accurately. In the past 15 years I've seen changes for the better in many parts of Thailand, but not completely. Rural life has remained much the same, with the exception that the internet has made the country "smaller". It's much easier for people in the country to learn what goes on outside their community. In one rural area that I am fond of they only recently got electricity and the schools got computers. Prior to that the villages used truck batteries for lighting at night. Once a person gets older than 50 their own demands of life go downward in an ever increasing spiral. You don't need to spend as much on personal items. By the time you are 50 you should already own everything you need. And, it you don't then it's highly unlikely that you ever will. There's seldom an interest in starting new businesses and jousting at windmills. LIfe just slows down to a pace that is more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expatdreamer Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 it depends on what is your purpose of retirement and the itinerary I think his purpose is pretty clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awohalitsiktoli Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Some more specific questions I guess I have are: Is it still going to be a place where someone with a reasonable / modest retirement and savings by Western standard's can live a better life than they would in the West? NO BECAUSE OF CIVIL UNREST Will there still be a bar scene / entertainment options such as exist today , or will it be in decline due to other jobs available? YES BUT THE ECONOMY WILL BE IN SHAMBLES Will Western men in their 50s still be in demand (at least in greater demand compared to their demand in the Western world) and be able to go on dates with Thai women in their 20s-30s? YES Will it still be fun (sanook factor)? NOT AS MUCH DUE TO A TERRIBLE DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND ECONOMIC CHAOS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND INSANE ECONOMIC PLANNING AND POPULATION GROWTH AND HORRIBLE EDUCATION SYSTEMS AND GENERAL GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Will there still be a big gap between rich and poor (yes I know that exists in every country) but will there be a growing middle class due to increasing education levels and employment opportunities? YES AND REVOLUTION WILL BE THE DISH OF THE MOMENT Will locals still be receptive to having retired Western expats reside in their country? NO BECAUSE XENOPHOBIA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SORRY, I WISH I COULD BE MORE POSITIVE. BY THE WAY, I AM NOT SHOUTING BY USING ALL CAPITAL LETTERS. I THINK IT MAKES MY RESPONSES EASIER TO READ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 i think Vietnam and Cambodia will take over thailand's retiree base and Backpakers... yeah right Agree, buffalo, although I've been trying to convince the whiniest farangs that they should consider these places. Unfortunately, they're not biting. There must be a better tactic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expatdreamer Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 I agree, and here we have an OP wondering if men in their 50's will still be in demand in Thailand in 15 years time. I don't think there are many people going to bed tonight worrying about that. Not worried about it, but it's a serious question. If I am not going to be in demand in my 50's, I may as well get married a second time here in the West to some age appropriate Western wife who I will never be able to please and who can take me to the cleaners once I call an end to my working days, leaving me destitute. But yes, admit I might be overplanning it just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackdawson Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Thailand, meaning Bangkok, the part that counts, will be like Singapore. Unfortunately, for those of us on a budget, it will not be as nearly hospitable as it has been and still is. I am incredibly thankful I moved over when I did (2005). And started hitting it hard when I did (1998). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theblether Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I agree, and here we have an OP wondering if men in their 50's will still be in demand in Thailand in 15 years time. I don't think there are many people going to bed tonight worrying about that. Not worried about it, but it's a serious question. If I am not going to be in demand in my 50's, I may as well get married a second time here in the West to some age appropriate Western wife who I will never be able to please and who can take me to the cleaners once I call an end to my working days, leaving me destitute. But yes, admit I might be overplanning it just a little. Your doing it again......in the space of this one post you have just married yourself off, got divorced and lost all your money leaving yourself destitute. Try this alternative plan of action.......earn, earn and earn again. Take regular trips back to Thailand to top up on your addiction to the place. Go home and use that as motivation to work harder and earn more. There will not be many Thaivisa members that will tell you they have too much money here in Thailand, your budget has a wonderful way of expanding to fit available funds. It's an uncanny phenomenom, and most Thaivisa members will tell you that Thai girls are adept at ensuring that it happens. So stop planning so much and concentrate on earning more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerryk Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Thailand, meaning Bangkok, the part that counts, will be like Singapore. Unfortunately, for those of us on a budget, it will not be as nearly hospitable as it has been and still is. I am incredibly thankful I moved over when I did (2005). And started hitting it hard when I did (1998). 60 million Thai people. 10 million live in Bangkok. During the holidays 5 million. I have been coming to Thailand since 1968 and have spent a total of 90 days in Bangkok. If Bangkok was Thailand I would have never have moved here. Not knocking Bangkok there are lots of people who enjoy paying high prices and breathing smoke. The only reason I go any more is to have my Omega watch cleaned and serviced about once ever ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phomsanuk Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 i think Vietnam and Cambodia will take over thailand's retiree base and Backpakers... Plenty of filipinas as well Catholics have lots of little girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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