PM Yingluck Reveals Worse Case Scenario

[webfact]

PM's address on flood

The Nation

Bangkok may be submerged from 10 centimeters to 1.5 meters although the government is determined to minimise the inundation and duration, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said.

Yingluck made a candid assessment on flood control in a televised speech Tuesday's night.

"A worst scenario of flood may happen due to one of the three factors - breakdown of embankment, collapse of levee and higher-than-expected overflow," she said.

She said run-off from the North has moved to the Central Region. Massive water volume in the Central Region is, in turn, passing Bangkok on its way to drain into the sea.

It is likely that the water will overwhelm the existing capacity of floodgates and dykes, hence it is highly possible for water to overflow into inner, middle and outer Bangkok.

The prime minister said high risk areas for flood included those near Chao Phraya River embankment, those close to dykes and those outside the flood walls.

She said the inundation, if happens, would hinge on two factors - water management and geographic terrain of each locality.

In western Bangkok, the government has mobilised all resources to control the water from Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi attacking Bang Kruai and Bang Phlat in Thon Buri.

Water would be drained via Masawat Canal linking two rivers, Chao Phraya and Tha Cheen.

Inundation in Thon Buri is estimated to be around 50 centimeters.

In northern Bangkok, the sluice gate on Prem Prachakorn Canal has been opened to lessen the water flow and inundation in Don Mueang, Lak Si, Sai Mai, Bang Sue, Bang Khen, National Memorial and two main

In eastern Bangkok, Min Buri, Nong Chok and Lat Phrao will see water diverted via three main canals, Rapheephat, lower Hok Wa and Saen Sap, to drain into the sea.

As the eastern parts are located on the water route, the inundation may rise to one or one and a half meters.

The government will try to divert water from Rangsit Canal to lower Hok Wa Canal in order to minimise the water volume reaching inner Bangkok areas.

In regard to the shelter at Don Mueang, flood victims will be relocated to other shelters located in Bangkok and upcountry.

The storage of relief supplies will be moved from Don Mueang to Chan Yingyong Building at the National Stadium.

Contributions for relief supplies can be made at the National Stadium beginning Wednesday.

-- The Nation 2011-10-26

[AleG]

Fully agreed with what you are writing, constructive is to go out and help. I am also tried to read all the armchair "specialists" here.

Shouting "Iceberg ahead!" is also constructive. Although some people seem to be arguing that we should be waiting until we are in the lifeboats to see what could had been done better.

[animatic]

The engines of Thai Airways airplanes are protected as floods advanced at the Don Muang airport in Bangkok. (Reuters)

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...ok-airport.html

Geez, I love this flood protection...

Yes, let's wrap the engines in plastic, rather than fly the airplane to a safer airport...

[whybother]

Yes, let's wrap the engines in plastic, rather than fly the airplane to a safer airport...

I don't think the engines or wheels would work too well with plastic wrapped around them.

[zydeco]

Take the PM's worst case estimates and quadruple them at the low end, while doubling them at the high end. Use this formula with everything they say.

Edited October 26, 2011 by zydeco

[sprq]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

Unfortunately, Thai script can not easily be transliterated (romanised or converted to English looking characters) so this will come up time and again. There are a number of different transliteration systems and it depends on the system and the person how it is "converted". If you want to be confused you will care about it.

True, but Thai pronunciation -- not the nutty script -- could fairly easily be converted into a logical Romanised system using a logical phonetic system such as that of the Spanish language. Somebody with linguistic skills could fairly quickly create a much better Romanisation for the Thai language than now exists. The only trouble would be getting everyone to chuck out the old systems and use it -- a Herculean task which ain't gonna be done.

[IMA_FARANG]

I agree with some other posters that there is a hard core of chronic complainers on these flood subjects.

On one hand some will criticise every thing the current government does or trys to do about the floods.

There are also those who defend everything the current government does...it all the fault of the previous (or some past) government.

Frankly both groups are talking (male cattle excretement) and generally I disregard most of what they have to say...just for that reason alone.

My question, asked politely to all, is:

Hey Mr. big talker...precisely what have YOU actually done in the last week to help solve the problem...or at least help those affected by the floods.

If you can't answer that question honestly, I have no more time for your complaining.

If you can answer it honestly...I take off my hat to you.

[xthAi76s]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

I am pretty sure it's the same place. I've seen it spelled both ways in several places and know of no other place with a similar name.

Thank you! Not ranting at all, but I really do wish Thai was consistently transliterated to English. Standards are esp useful in a disaster.

Cheers

[AleG]

The engines of Thai Airways airplanes are protected as floods advanced at the Don Muang airport in Bangkok. (Reuters)

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...ok-airport.html

Geez, I love this flood protection...

Yes, let's wrap the engines in plastic, rather than fly the airplane to a safer airport...

It looks like a mothballed airplane, it's probably not fit for flying before a thorough overhaul.

[brimacthai]

The prime minister stressed that all residents should move their belongings to higher ground in preparation for a worst case scenario if flood barriers collapse.

Under such circumstances, the government will do its best to protect electricity and water distribution systems to make sure service is not disrupted.

However, if residents feel they would like to return to their home provinces or would like to leave Bangkok, the Transport and Interior ministries will facilitate flood victims who would like to relocate, either home or to provincial evacuation centers

Is this her way of saying get out before it's too late?

Might already be too late for some!

[xthAi76s]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

Unfortunately, Thai script can not easily be transliterated (romanised or converted to English looking characters) so this will come up time and again. There are a number of different transliteration systems and it depends on the system and the person how it is "converted". If you want to be confused you will care about it.

True, but Thai pronunciation -- not the nutty script -- could fairly easily be converted into a logical Romanised system using a logical phonetic system such as that of the Spanish language. Somebody with linguistic skills could fairly quickly create a much better Romanisation for the Thai language than now exists. The only trouble would be getting everyone to chuck out the old systems and use it -- a Herculean task which ain't gonna be done.

Didn't see this until after I made my first reply.

I am very much into language and have studied several. Just about everyone had successfully transliterated their languages into others (including English). There is no technical reason it can not be done. The problems with Thai are mostly that effort has not been made in this area. The Japanese use a separate phonetic script (katakana) for foreign "borrowed" words, the Koreans essentially redid their entire writing system (which used to be purely Chinese script) to the current one they have which is said to be one of the most phonetic in the world. It can be done if there is a will.

Anyway, it is just confusing sometimes. Most of the time there is no reason to care, but when there is an emergency, it could be an inconvenience or worse.

[xthAi76s]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

---------------

Yes, that what they mean.

The spelling got scrambled in converting from Thai characters to English letters I suspect.

Or also sometimes Min Buri.

(similar sound in Thai)

Thanks alot

[MILT]

Beware that any donations you make to FROC will be repackaged before distributed to the needy with a picture of Thaksin (or other red-shirt superstar) on it. If you have no objections to that, then by all means proceed. Otherwise, find another worthwhile charitable organization to donate to.

What makes me laugh?

I am tripping over myself to donate.

What makes me cry is how come I can't get my picture on the package? It's my money

[rogerdee123]

You guys should stop beating around on Yingluck and blaming her for the current flood crisis. She's just doing the best she can. You guys also don't know where the flood is going or where it will flood in 2-3 days. It's an ever-changing situation. If you guys know, then why don't you share it here? If you don't, then let her do her job.

You should blame whoever designed the drain-off systems and water canals in Bangkok and Thailand in general over the past few decades. Whoever the people are that designed those are responsible, not Yingluck who just became PM this year. Or are you suggesting she dug all the wrong-designed canals herself in the past few weeks?

Even in the times of worst crisis in Thailand, there are people that have nothing better to do than play the "blame it on the Shinawatras" game. Go out and help some people. I know I stood in knee-deep water all day helping others. It makes me sick to come home and read all this crap.

Hello Newbie,

In your haste to pass blame, I suggest you take a moment to read up on some of the people who designed or were involved in the construction of the klong (canal) systems surrounding Bangkok and in the city itself.

They were built over a hundred years ago in many cases on the advice of ,and by order of, the King. Check out klong Rangsit for one and see who it is named after.

When the klongs were designed, Bangkok was not covered in concrete and the forests in the north had not all been cut down to cause landslides etc. Since then many have been filled in to create streets for Bangkok's traffic nightmare.

This government has known for months that this was coming, given the amount of monsoon rainfall we had. But then maybe not.

So we shouldn't listen to him because he is new on this webboard? lol there is nothing holy about being a longtime member here. Knowing this much water is coming doesn't mean anything can be done about it. To think a developing country can achieve a miracle and prevent a flood here is ridiculous, let's move on to something important like how to help people in trouble and where to get the best information on where water is going, when it's going there, and how long it will take to drain. Enough with the gloating already. How about this, we all admit you are so superior and intelligent and educated than (insert your own favorite whipping boy/girl) and let's get over it.

I think his post was quite civil, especially when compared to the tone of yours. Chill out man. Have a beer.

[Payboy]

PM Yingluck

Isn't that already the Worse Case Scenario for most people on TV?

No. Try a relative.

That's expat armageddon.

[slipperx]

The prime minister stressed that all residents should move their belongings to higher ground in preparation for a worst case scenario if flood barriers collapse.

Under such circumstances, the government will do its best to protect electricity and water distribution systems to make sure service is not disrupted.

However, if residents feel they would like to return to their home provinces or would like to leave Bangkok, the Transport and Interior ministries will facilitate flood victims who would like to relocate, either home or to provincial evacuation centers

Is this her way of saying get out before it's too late?

i think it is .....

even if there is a risk of 1.5 mtre flooding, they should evacuate now !!!! , how will they get the masses out or delever food and water to these people when the floods hit !

Boat, ship, barge, raft, fleet?

nah they sent the fleet away already - don't need them! - We are THAI - we are INVINCIBLE!

[rogerdee123]

PM alerts Bangkok residents to brace for flood tomorrow; affirms Suvarnabhumi Airport to be spared /MCOT

Yingluck says swampy is safe ... so people there at Suvarnabumi better start running for the rafters!

[slipperx]

You guys should stop beating around on Yingluck and blaming her for the current flood crisis. She's just doing the best she can. You guys also don't know where the flood is going or where it will flood in 2-3 days. It's an ever-changing situation. If you guys know, then why don't you share it here? If you don't, then let her do her job.

You should blame whoever designed the drain-off systems and water canals in Bangkok and Thailand in general over the past few decades. Whoever the people are that designed those are responsible, not Yingluck who just became PM this year. Or are you suggesting she dug all the wrong-designed canals herself in the past few weeks?

Even in the times of worst crisis in Thailand, there are people that have nothing better to do than play the "blame it on the Shinawatras" game. Go out and help some people. I know I stood in knee-deep water all day helping others. It makes me sick to come home and read all this crap.

That is just crazy. To design the flood protection money is needed, maintenance is needed and organisation is needed.

Money comes from the government which sets budgets and distributes to the appropriate department to spend on infrastructure - it is never an open cheque book - fault lies there with the elected politicians over the last 30 years - all of them culpable. Maintenance is needed and again comes from the government budget allocated - fault lies with the elected politicians over the years - all of them culpable along with possibly the departments themselves who did not report adequately or mis-spent the money. Organisation is firstly the responsibility of government and the elected politicians who decide the method of organisation - how much is centrally controlled and how much devolved to local government.

To handle a disaster you need a plan - it should be in place already but if not then as soon as it becomes clear the situation is abnormal (as must have been clear a couple of months ago) then you hastily make up a plan using your best experts or preferably the best experts you can employ (in this case the best would be foreign I think it is fair to assume). This government has failed its people because it has fannied around oblivious to the pending disaster and acted (and continues to act) in the most unstructured, disorganised, ignorant fashion with information dissemination out of control, leaving the Thai people exposed to huge danger and a possible catastrophe from disease as well as the flooding itself and at huge financial and personal cost.

This is a direct result of the incompetence and ignorant arrogance of this government together with the mismanagement of the former administrations together with humongous corruption diverting the money away from the infrastructure and into the pockets of the powerful. Thai people continue to be raped of their money, their hopes & dreams, their right to a decent life by the elite here who rape and pillage the fortunes of this country to the detriment of everyone. I am a capitalist by nature but this is not capitalism it is the enslavery of the average Thai person to a life of poverty through corruption and criminality. One day people will wake up - hope it is not too long.

Yes go out and help - don't give money it will not get to where it should go. Buy food, water whatever necessities you can and search out the people who really need it - give that willingly free from the gift wrapping of some political party who have given sod all but just try to make political gain from the situation. I hear that people are being denied food until the cameras are there to film the wonderful provisions donated by the government as if they are giving it from themselves. That is what makes me sick!

[dasy]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

same same no difference

[hyperdimension]

PM Reveals Worse [sic] Case Scenario

Does that imply there is a still a Worst Case Scenario on the drawing board? Bad, Worse, Worser ?

Using the word "worse" instead of "worst" in the phrase "worse case scenario" leaves room for the possibility that things may get even more dire than what she presented. So her scenario is not actually the "worst case scenario" yet.

[hyperdimension]

I urge the moderators to come up with some means of diverting the flood of irrelevant political commentary on topics like this which impairs the usefulness and credibility of these forums.

A separate thread only for practical survival tips, advice and education would be good. Is there one?

Edited October 26, 2011 by hyperdimension

[hyperdimension]

If they drop few sand bags on runways, planes will be even safer. This pic with jet engines covered with plastic bags illustrates Thai mentality so well

Looking around the streets, it seems that some people "drop few sand bags" thinking that they will soak up the water like sponges. Don't they know that the water would simply go around or in between the bags?

[mortenaa]

I am very much into language and have studied several. Just about everyone had successfully transliterated their languages into others (including English). There is no technical reason it can not be done. The problems with Thai are mostly that effort has not been made in this area. The Japanese use a separate phonetic script (katakana) for foreign "borrowed" words, the Koreans essentially redid their entire writing system (which used to be purely Chinese script) to the current one they have which is said to be one of the most phonetic in the world. It can be done if there is a will.

Anyway, it is just confusing sometimes. Most of the time there is no reason to care, but when there is an emergency, it could be an inconvenience or worse.

There is standards for this in Thailand. Royal Thai General System of Transcription. But then again, pronunciation of transliterated word might sounds different if I, a Norwegian read it than e.g. an Englishman. So therefore a lot of transliterations here are often targeted native English speakers.

Example:

เจริญ

International Phonetic: cà-rəːn

For native English: ja-rern

Thai standard: cha-roen

Confusing? YES

[Samuian]

PM Yingluck

Isn't that already the Worse Case Scenario for most people on TV?

One might have thought so a few weeks ago,

and yet it's infinitely worse now....

And wait a week.

...comin' Monday... Yin ran out of luck will be featured in a new play "the day after.." a

[chrisinth]

You guys should stop beating around on Yingluck and blaming her for the current flood crisis. She's just doing the best she can. You guys also don't know where the flood is going or where it will flood in 2-3 days. It's an ever-changing situation. If you guys know, then why don't you share it here? If you don't, then let her do her job.

You should blame whoever designed the drain-off systems and water canals in Bangkok and Thailand in general over the past few decades. Whoever the people are that designed those are responsible, not Yingluck who just became PM this year. Or are you suggesting she dug all the wrong-designed canals herself in the past few weeks?

Even in the times of worst crisis in Thailand, there are people that have nothing better to do than play the "blame it on the Shinawatras" game. Go out and help some people. I know I stood in knee-deep water all day helping others. It makes me sick to come home and read all this crap.

Here in Chiang Mai we had big floods about 4 weeks ago. This water did not dissapear, it's been making it's way South. Add the water from the many other areas in the North that have flooded in the last few weeks and nobody should be surprised that this water is now hitting Bangkok. Well a few people seem surprised and that is this current government.

Ok I don't want this to sound like boasting but the weather in Chiang mai has changed. Rainy season is over here. The river is the lowest I've seen it for about 5-6 months. So hopefully when you get this surge past you things might calm down a bit. Granted it looks like this surge could take a long time but runoff from here has dropped a lot.

Good luck to you all.

Same here in Phitsanulok; I reckon about another metre to drop before normal river level for this time of year. The river has dropped about 7 metres (estimate) in the last 2 weeks. That is a very short time for this sort of displacement, and it only has the one path to go.

That this situation has not been calculated, along with the worst rain patterns for the last 50 years, is in my mind the crux of the matter. Regardless of who is in the seat in government, I would doubt they could do anything about the run-off at this stage. Mistakes were made by trying to block/prevent the passage of the water in the first place and not having all the flood gates opened to their fullest so that the water system of Bkk could be utilised to allow the maximum flow of water to be controlled (without causing overflow) to the sea.

[tommyyoung]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

[h90]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

[hammered]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

But everything Thaksin says or does is wrong and bad.

[hammered]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

[h90]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

To keep it right, there was a decade old plan from HM the King, which was done only half and canceled by Banharn when he was premier.

This half of the plan which was done is the reason why BKK is not flooded yet.

Thaksin government was in power from 2001-2006 and than again 2008 and did NOTHING. Military was just in power 1.5 years.