Chao Phraya River Set To Brim Over

[webfact]

Chao Phraya set to brim over

The Nation

River likely to rise above embankment this weekend; decision on holidays not binding on private companies

The Chao Phraya River appears set to overflow in Bangkok this weekend as rising seawater levels add to the woes of the country's raging flood crisis.

To help current and potential flood victims in 21 affected provinces cope with the crisis, the Cabinet yesterday announced Thursday, Friday and next Monday as special holidays.

Bangkok is among these provinces.

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

Sukhumband said the height of the permanent embankment along most parts of the Chao Phraya River stretch in Bangkok is now 2.5 metres. Some sandbags are being placed on top of the embankment to protect the capital from overflowing, but there is not enough time for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) to construct the extra height needed along the 75.7km stretch.

"To cover the entire stretch, we will need up to 10 million sandbags," Sukhumbhand pointed out, "We will have to focus our efforts on the most vulnerable and key spots only."

The Bangkok governor urged people living near the mouth of canals connected to the Chao Phraya River such as Bangkok Noi, Bangkok Yai, and Padung Krungkasem to be on full alert.

Many areas of the capital have already been flooded, including the Vibhavadi Rangsit Road in Don Muang district where the Flood Relief Operations Centre (FROC) is located.

Sukhumbhand said the BMA, in collaboration with the Highways Department, would form floodwalls on top of Sai Mai, Hatairat, Hataimit, Nimitmai, Romklao and Kingkaew roads to protect inner parts of the capital.

These roads stretch a total of 39km and serve as an embankment against run-off water from the upper part of the country.

Sukhumbhand asked people to co-operate with officials in charge of floodwall construction. "Please have empathy for officials who have to work. Please be reasonable if you want to raise any objection," Sukhumbhand said.

Government Spokesman Thitima Chaisang said government officials from C-9 level up would be required to work during the upcoming holidays to keep services open.

"Officials in charge of water drainage, electricity, waterworks, and transport will have to stay on duty, too," she said.

The Cabinet resolution announcing special holidays came amid growing calls from several parties.

The holidays would not only give people time to prepare for the coming flood, but they would allow workers from the provinces to leave the capital ahead of the floods.

Private companies have not been ordered to declare the holidays but their executives have been urged to exercise discretion in deciding whether to give holidays to their staff.

The Education Ministry yesterday postponed the start of the new semester to November 15 in 12 flood-hit provinces.

They are Bangkok, Chai Nat, Nakhon Sawan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Sing Buri, Angthong, Utai Thani, Saraburi and Chachoengsao.

-- The Nation 2011-10-26

[webfact]

Riverside communities at risk when tide rises

Pongphon Sarnsamak

The Nation

In order to protect the capital from floods caused by high tide over the next two days, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has been advised further strengthen the sandbag embankments along the Chao Phraya River.

"Residential areas along the Chao Phraya River are most at risk if the level of the sea rises," Royol Chitradon, director of the Hydro Informatics Division of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute, said.

Royol is part of the committee set up by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to deal with the flooding situation.

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

Though strong winds are also expected to affect the rising tide, Royol said, "the situation should not be too bad. Some areas will be affected by the rising tide but not too much."

Uthen Chartpinyo, chief of the Flood Relief Operation Centre's panel that is tasked with draining the flood waters, said rising sea levels could slow down their job.

Royol said his panel had advised officials to block run-offs from Bang Sai area from flowing into the Chao Phraya during the high tide.

The upper part of Bangkok has about 6 billion cubic metres of flood water, with the authorities being able to drain nearly 400 million cubic metres per day. Royol believes that it will take about three or four weeks to drain all the water out, though there will be more run-offs from Pichit and Nakhon Sawan.

"Personally, I think the situation will get back to normal by mid November and we can start restoration work," Royol said.

Meanwhile, Chaiyaporn Siripornpaiboon, deputy director of Natural Resources and Environment Ministry's Water Resources Department, said that all areas in inner Bangkok, be they inside or outside the city's permanent embankment, were at risk because the barriers were not strong or efficient in all spots. He said the water pressure was approximately one tonne per square meter, and if high tide caused Chao Phraya River to swell to 3 metres, the pressure would be trebled. Thus, even if the embankment does not collapse, the water might still seep through. Hence, he said, people living along the Chao Phraya should be prepared.

-- The Nation 2011-10-26

[bkkjames]

Another conflicting assessment? "Shouldn't be too bad".

[MaxYakov]

Another conflicting assessment? "Shouldn't be too bad".

Royol said, "the situation should not be too bad. Some areas will be affected by the rising tide but not too much."

You should get your quotes correct and in better context, doncha think?

Now, what was the 'conflicting assessment' you were alluding to?

[bkkjames]

Well Max, sorry to confuse you, but if you spend a little less time talking about the great failure on the chao phraya movement by propeller thread and look at a few of the other topics quoting the pm, govenor, and the military: you would see statements that conflict with the one quoted in the topic here.

Did you see the press conference late yesterday?

How about the statements from the science minister? Do these sound the same as the guy in this story from the nation?

[PaulHamon]

"To cover the entire stretch, we will need up to 10 million sandbags," Sukhumbhand pointed out, "We will have to focus our efforts on the most vulnerable and key spots only."

A few us navy ship full of eager bodies to help... they could have put a big dent in that.

[peterdk]

Another conflicting assessment? "Shouldn't be too bad".

Royol said, "the situation should not be too bad. Some areas will be affected by the rising tide but not too much."

You should get your quotes correct and in better context, doncha think?

Now, what was the 'conflicting assessment' you were alluding to?

In the 2 articles on this page, one says 2.6 meters, other one says not too bad and 2.45 meters.

That is a bit conflicting already there.

Here is more conflict :

( 2.45 meter article ) Some areas will be affected by the rising tide but not too much.

( 2.6 meter article ) It's going to be higher than the embankment + To cover the entire stretch, we will need up to 10 million sandbags

So yes, indeed conflicting assessments.

Edited October 26, 2011 by peterdk

[zydeco]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

[stickyrice2000]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

[justaphase]

If a state of emergency is declared, the army will be in charge... don't think Yingluck wants that do you?

[OZEMADE]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

Rubbish the ARMY have already been out there helping. However it is too late now for anyone to stop this torrent of water heading to the capitol. According to the world new the high tides and the water heading to Bangkok will clash and overflow the river banks. they also stated that the flood water is approaching from 3 sides. Thailand people are in a heap of trouble.

[zakk9]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

The army can only help if the government decides that all available resources should be combined to solve this crisis and the government decides to include the army in "all available resources".

[zakk9]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

Rubbish the ARMY have already been out there helping. However it is too late now for anyone to stop this torrent of water heading to the capitol. According to the world new the high tides and the water heading to Bangkok will clash and overflow the river banks. they also stated that the flood water is approaching from 3 sides. Thailand people are in a heap of trouble.

Unfortunately, they were apparently not asked to help when they could really have meant a difference; building protective dikes starting in July to secure industry estates, homes and jobs for hundreds of thousands of people.

[Friendlyisle]

I've been following this impending disaster from afar (Hawaii) for weeks now. It appears the government is simply not up to this huge challenge. America learned a lot from our own disastrous flooding in New Orleans. Our government also did too little, too late. Too bad the entire military wasn't put to work on this much sooner! Declining assistance from the U.S. Navy was both inexplicable and inexcusable. Drownings, MANY 1000's of displaced families, HUGE property damage, and then the inevitable illnesses caused by contaminated water supplies - it looks like a complete and total catastrophe from here! I pray for the people of Thailand!

[cowslip]

I must say I'm unimpressed with the language used by the Nation - but then it is highly politically motivated.

There seem to be certain factions that are hell-bent on making political capital out of this situation, regardless of the effect this has on the flood control operations themselves or the reality of the situation - which let's face it is going to be pretty obscure in any cirumstances.

Edited October 26, 2011 by cowslip

[Abduljabbar01]

This would make a wonderful movie script.

[tombkk]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

The army can only help if the government decides that all available resources should be combined to solve this crisis and the government decides to include the army in "all available resources".

Where did you get this from? The army is in fact one of the first resources the government uses in natural disasters, not the last one. Disaster relief is one of their missions.

[darhut]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

Not too sure where you come up with 1.5 metres? Maybe I misunderstand your comment? The difference between 2.6 and 2.45 comes to 0.15. So that equates to 150 millimeters.

[zydeco]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

Not too sure where you come up with 1.5 metres? Maybe I misunderstand your comment? The difference between 2.6 and 2.45 comes to 0.15. So that equates to 150 millimeters.

Thanks, my mistake. BTW, do you (or anybody else) know about the average versus minimum issue with the embankment. I'm not trolling with the above post at all. I really want to know, because earlier articles on this board mentioned a 2.5 meter average for the wall.

[Khonper]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

Maths ain't easy when it comes to that large amounts of water. But this shows some standard of the critics here on the forum. Difference between 2.6m and 2,45m is not 1.5m it is only 0.15m or 6 inches.

And nobody can know exactly how much tide and the flooding will make the CP will rise

[slipperx]

So we have the sea level rising to 2.6 metres or is that the level of the river? If it is the level of the river at the river mouth then how does that reduce the further north away from the river mouth you get? And we have the average embankment height at 2.5 metres from where to where - is it higher near the river mouth and lower inland or does it vary arbitrarily?

I cannot imagine the sea level will be 2.6 metres higher than normal - at that level practically all of Bangkok will be flooded - even the highest areas are only 2.5 to 3m or so above sea level. What does sea level mean? Average sea level? Maximum normal sea level or what? I mean does the average sea level go up and down by more than 6 metres? i.e. +2.5m to -2.5m around the average?

What effect does the wind have on the level of the sea and river? If the embankment in parts is averaging 2.5m then even if that were the level everywhere if the river rises to 2.6m then it will overflow by 100mm. Doesn't sound much but that will be just constant water overflow without abatement until the tide recedes and then replenished as the tide comes in and out.

I took a look at the river on the way through Nonthaburi two days ago - it looked to me to be about level with the embankment - well not much of an embankment there as the water is already in all the houses alongside the river and about waist high - let's call that 1 metre. So are we saying the level will rise another 1.5m?

Then in the second snippet we have the sea level going to be 2.45 metres and no problem.

I think the point is that nothing is actually clear and it is foolish to make sweeping statements that it will all be OK or that it will be a total washout. It has to depend where you are, what the real situation turns out to be and how well the flood walls stand up - the latter being the 640 million baht question because I have seen the water rushing out between the old wall and the new section that was built about 25 years ago I think. So water rushing through a concrete joint like that will seriously weaken the wall and I wonder how well the reinforcement inside the walls is standing up to corrosion since it must necessarily be exposed.

My biggest fear about this is that sections of the walls collapse under the added pressure of water - 1 metre of water is bloody heavy and exerts pressure at 1030 Kg per cubic metre at 1 metre depth - just over a tonne! That is a lot of pressure on an old leaking concrete wall extension!

Of course the other thing could be that this is all being whipped up to cause widespread panic so that the politicians can say how brilliant they have been when inner Bangkok doesn't flood and the flood of relief (excuse the pun) when that doesn't happen will pave the way for Thaksin's return amidst waves of glory for him supplying the Thai people with lots of pumps or something, paid for by him with money he has got from ....... (reader to complete) to ensure this never happens again.

Who really knows - for certain I don';t but then I trust no one except my Mum anymore!!

10 million sandbags? Don't need the US Army to help? Hmm who is going to put all these sandbags in place and where is all the sand and bags suddenly going to come from. One ten tonne lorry = about 200 sandbags and we need 10 million in two days - thats 50,000 lorry deliveries in two days - 25,000 a day - hmmm do they have that many lorries?

It's all conjecture on my part I freely admit - I don;t think I am alone in that! All I know is there is no food on the shelves, no drinking water in the shops, the tap water is already contaminated and full of chemicals to keep it potable (we hope) and this tragedy will last somewhere between a little tragedy in some areas to the whole of Bangkok for four to six weeks and we are going to open the schools in three weeks time.

Nothing adds up! Amazing Thailand - it will be a miracle if the masses don't get fooled into believing someone somewhere has graciously helped them. Jeez

[samjaidee]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

2.6m - 2.45m = 0.15m or 15cm.

Even my Grade 4 students can do basic addition and subtraction.

[drdoom6996]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

Decimal points. Very confusing. 2.45 from 2.6 is .15 not 1.5. Now how hard was that. Your scared, we got it. But stop scaring others with poor math.

[Samuian]

If a state of emergency is declared, the army will be in charge... don't think Yingluck wants that do you?

To keep things in context: me thinks HE doesn't want it!

[cowslip]

So we have the sea level rising to 2.6 metres or is that the level of the river? If it is the level of the river at the river mouth then how does that reduce the further north away from the river mouth you get? And we have the average embankment height at 2.5 metres from where to where - is it higher near the river mouth and lower inland or does it vary arbitrarily?

I cannot imagine the sea level will be 2.6 metres higher than normal - at that level practically all of Bangkok will be flooded - even the highest areas are only 2.5 to 3m or so above sea level. What does sea level mean? Average sea level? Maximum normal sea level or what? I mean does the average sea level go up and down by more than 6 metres? i.e. +2.5m to -2.5m around the average?

What effect does the wind have on the level of the sea and river? If the embankment in parts is averaging 2.5m then even if that were the level everywhere if the river rises to 2.6m then it will overflow by 100mm. Doesn't sound much but that will be just constant water overflow without abatement until the tide recedes and then replenished as the tide comes in and out.

I took a look at the river on the way through Nonthaburi two days ago - it looked to me to be about level with the embankment - well not much of an embankment there as the water is already in all the houses alongside the river and about waist high - let's call that 1 metre. So are we saying the level will rise another 1.5m?

Then in the second snippet we have the sea level going to be 2.45 metres and no problem.

I think the point is that nothing is actually clear and it is foolish to make sweeping statements that it will all be OK or that it will be a total washout. It has to depend where you are, what the real situation turns out to be and how well the flood walls stand up - the latter being the 640 million baht question because I have seen the water rushing out between the old wall and the new section that was built about 25 years ago I think. So water rushing through a concrete joint like that will seriously weaken the wall and I wonder how well the reinforcement inside the walls is standing up to corrosion since it must necessarily be exposed.

My biggest fear about this is that sections of the walls collapse under the added pressure of water - 1 metre of water is bloody heavy and exerts pressure at 1030 Kg per cubic metre at 1 metre depth - just over a tonne! That is a lot of pressure on an old leaking concrete wall extension!

Of course the other thing could be that this is all being whipped up to cause widespread panic so that the politicians can say how brilliant they have been when inner Bangkok doesn't flood and the flood of relief (excuse the pun) when that doesn't happen will pave the way for Thaksin's return amidst waves of glory for him supplying the Thai people with lots of pumps or something, paid for by him with money he has got from ....... (reader to complete) to ensure this never happens again.

Who really knows - for certain I don';t but then I trust no one except my Mum anymore!!

10 million sandbags? Don't need the US Army to help? Hmm who is going to put all these sandbags in place and where is all the sand and bags suddenly going to come from. One ten tonne lorry = about 200 sandbags and we need 10 million in two days - thats 50,000 lorry deliveries in two days - 25,000 a day - hmmm do they have that many lorries?

It's all conjecture on my part I freely admit - I don;t think I am alone in that! All I know is there is no food on the shelves, no drinking water in the shops, the tap water is already contaminated and full of chemicals to keep it potable (we hope) and this tragedy will last somewhere between a little tragedy in some areas to the whole of Bangkok for four to six weeks and we are going to open the schools in three weeks time.

Nothing adds up! Amazing Thailand - it will be a miracle if the masses don't get fooled into believing someone somewhere has graciously helped them. Jeez

good post......

as for the logistics - having seen hardcore delivered a few times - I don't see too big a problem - I also can't see how foreign aid would help that. Roads and access might prove a problem so some bridges and pontoons might help - I expect the Thai army has a few lying around though.

Grade 4 students be aware! -

There is also a common misconception that water is FLAT - it won't be - the tide, currents and winds can lead to big variations in how and where the water builds up - - so quibbling about a few mm here and there is quite pointless.

Edited October 26, 2011 by cowslip

[FalangBaa]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

Check your maths... Not much difference, since it's 0.15 metres, not 1.5 metres. It's 15 cm, the height of a small wave made by a passing boat with up to 3 people in it, not to mention a large riverboat taxi which could make a wave up to 0.5 metres.

[spermwhale]

The sea tide is going to rise a heckuva lot more than 2.6 meters as the government keeps spreading lies and half-truths.

According to the British Royal Navy, which we can all agree is a more trusted source of information, the tides here will rise to 3.2 meters!!!!!! over the weekend..

Check it out:

http://easytide.ukho.gov.uk/EasyTide/EasyTide/ShowPrediction.aspx?PortID=6882A&PredictionLength=7

BKK is HOSED

[cloghead]

That tide height is for the mouth of the river where it enters the Gulf of Thailand. Bangkok is a ways upriver of that location...

[rogerdee123]

That tide height is for the mouth of the river where it enters the Gulf of Thailand. Bangkok is a ways upriver of that location...

unfortunately the elevation isn't much different

[spermwhale]

That tide height is for the mouth of the river where it enters the Gulf of Thailand. Bangkok is a ways upriver of that location...

The point is... that if the tide is that high, it will push up against the flow of the river, preventing it from flowing into the sea and the water will go ...... where?