The World'S Media Watches As The Floods Reach Bangkok

[Mobi]

As I predicted in my blog yesterday, as the floods move into Bangkok, the world's media will become ever more obsessed with this story.

Here is a headline from Today's Daily telegraph:

Thailand floods: 'Bangkok Hilton' evacuated as city prepares for worst

Six hundred of the most serious offenders were moved from Bang Kwang Central Prison, better known as the Bangkok Hilton, on the banks of the Chao Phraya because of flooding concerns.

The jail, which houses many foreign inmates, is known for its harsh conditions. Inmates are forced to wear leg irons for the first three months, while the death row prisoners have them welded on permanently.....

The full story can be found here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/thailand/8850545/Thailand-floods-Bangkok-Hilton-evacuated-as-city-prepares-for-worst.html#disqus_thread

I also predict that the floods will have a far greater effect on tourism than the Bangkok riots did a couple of years ago. Not terminally, but there will certainly be a substantial drop in the 'high end' tourists (which TAT is so keen to attract), for the next couple of years or so.

Any repeat of these floods on a similar scale in future years could deal a very heavy blow indeed to tourism projections.

And I haven't even mentioned the effect to the general Thai economy - industry, agriculture, exports.... Some hard times may be ahead for a while.

[Jingthing]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

[flying]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

How magnanimous.....make it easier on expats & tourists....that helps how again?

Tourism is what 6-8% of GDP for Thailand....

In this time of crisis I do not think they are too worried about easing up visa time limits.

Especially as food & drinking water dwindles

[Galong]

The sky is not falling. Southern Thailand tourism is still rocking right now and the north is fine. Flights into BKK if Suvarnabhumi airport becomes affected will simply be rerouted to Utapao or elsewhere.

Honestly, to say that this, a natural disaster that is being mismanaged by the government, is in any way more harmful than the violent protests of the Reds is comparable is a bit of a reach.

There is, however, always something affecting tourism here. Those of us in the business are kinda getting used to it. :jap:

[kartman]

But will they want to fly into Suvarnabhumi or Utapao if they know the locals have filled up all the lower end hotels for the next 6+ weeks?

[Ulysses G.]

Honestly, to say that this, a natural disaster that is being mismanaged by the government, is in any way more harmful than the violent protests of the Reds is comparable is a bit of a reach.

Agreed and although inconvieient right now, the effects on tourism will be very short term.

[Galong]

But will they want to fly into Suvarnabhumi or Utapao if they know the locals have filled up all the lower end hotels for the next 6+ weeks?

Hi Kartman, I was kind of assuming visitors would opt to go elsewhere in Thailand, to places that are unaffected.

[yermanee]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

I sincerely cannot comprehend how this would help the typical tourist that comes for a 2 to 3 weeks (or even less) holiday.

Double Duh

Yermanee :jap:

[meom]

Honestly, to say that this, a natural disaster that is being mismanaged by the government, is in any way more harmful than the violent protests of the Reds is comparable is a bit of a reach.

Agreed and although inconvieient right now, the effects on tourism will be very short term.

It's still low season and with most tourists arriving from December onwards there'll be some impact but not a lot really unless you get all sorts of nasty diseases breaking out once the flood subsides.

[geriatrickid]

But will they want to fly into Suvarnabhumi or Utapao if they know the locals have filled up all the lower end hotels for the next 6+ weeks?

This won't discourage the high end tourists that rent the villas in Phuket for 30,000 baht/night. I don't think the tourism officials are going to be concerned about the lower end western tourists. My friend's hotel group in Phuket hasn't seen any cancellations and their capacity is at the historical level.

I am doing a couple quick bounces to Singapore and to Hong Kong in December.. Many of the flights I wanted are sold out to Phuket. In case anyone doesn't believe me, go and look at some the available seats in and out of Hong Kong in high season. The key tourist destinations which attract the people that spend the most are practically untouched. Have a look at hotel availability for the December rush. Slim pickings on reasonable rates at the nicer places.

[kerryk]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

How magnanimous.....make it easier on expats & tourists....that helps how again?

Tourism is what 6-8% of GDP for Thailand....

In this time of crisis I do not think they are too worried about easing up visa time limits.

Especially as food & drinking water dwindles

Thailand's grey market economy is roughly 50% and the majority of tourists come from Malaysia, China and Japan. Real figures would be closer to 25% of the GNP. If drinking water was a problem Thailand would have asked the US carrier fleet to stay and they didn't. I found lots of water yesterday and a many people have home filtration systems that remain untapped.

I see the major problem being how long granny can tolerate the grandkids. Two weeks is stretching it. I know granny moans all year long no one comes to see her but now the homesteads are filled with fighting cousins and dirty diapers. Lao kow sources are becoming stretched. And drunk bored Bangkok folks are reeking havoc on normal peaceful communities in Issan. Japanese factories that can relocate to dryer areas are doing so quickly but floating dead animals and out of work bar girls will eventually take it's toll. I don't see any way to save tourism this year. Short the Baht till January and hope for the best.

[NanLaew]

Bangkok's mythical self importance rears it's ugly head again? First of all the notion that the city must not flood as it would paralyze the nation. Doesn't matter that Thailand’s worst flooding in memory has caused damage to almost 10,000 factories, forcing some 660,000 employees temporarily into unemployment. Then add to that the as yet undefined losses and costs related to the submerged agricultural community. Not much of an industrial or agricultural base left for a 'paralysed' Bangkok to watch over anyway.

Now it appears that Bangkok is the crown jewel of tourism as well and the city flooding's impact on tourism will be notable?

If any city deserves the deluge, it's Bangkok.

[kerryk]

Bangkok's mythical self importance rears it's ugly head again? First of all the notion that the city must not flood as it would paralyze the nation. Doesn't matter that Thailand’s worst flooding in memory has caused damage to almost 10,000 factories, forcing some 660,000 employees temporarily into unemployment. Then add to that the as yet undefined losses and costs related to the submerged agricultural community. Not much of an industrial or agricultural base left for a 'paralysed' Bangkok to watch over anyway.

Now it appears that Bangkok is the crown jewel of tourism as well and the city flooding's impact on tourism will be notable?

If any city deserves the deluge, it's Bangkok.

Because Bangkok is flooding you have seen the Thai governments reaction to the mythical importance of the city. They made a decision to flood Bangkok quite a while back and now you are seeing the results of that decision.

I don't see what you are complaining about. You and the Thai government are on the same side in this argument.

[kerryk]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

Because tourists don't have a limitless supply of money or vacation days. Tourists have a fixed amount of money and fixed number of vacation days. Thailand attracts low end tourists because it is cheap, Malaysia being the largest country contributing to Thai tourism. It would make no difference if the visas were longer because the tourists currently don't have more money or days to spend on a longer vacation.

To boost tourism you would have to attract a different segment of the tourist market like gamblers. So open a legal casino in Pattaya and there would be an increase in tourism.

Duh.

[Swiss1960]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

Does not help at all! When I am coming for a holiday, I am coming for a limited amount of days and for that, I will have my Visa. I don't need a prolongation, as the chance of a tourist booking another holiday just based on the fact that he COULD do so based on the Visa prolongation is virtually nill.

Also, tourists who have booked their holidays will come to Thailand as long as they don't have BKK itself as main holiday destination. As long as governments and travel offices dont' recommend rebooking, destinations like Phuket or Pattaya are "safe" to see all tourists that have a booking, even right now. Tourist normally have their hotels booked months before they arrive, so no Thai who now tries to relocate from BKK to what ever place will take rooms away from tourists.

[Orac]

The problem, more for Pattaya than resorts further south, could be where these tourists are going to stay. One of the Pattaya newspapers today already stated that hotels in Pattaya were full, if the impact of the floods are going to mean ppl can't return to their homes for a number of weeks there could well be a problem when things get busier.

[kerryk]

The problem, more for Pattaya than resorts further south, could be where these tourists are going to stay. One of the Pattaya newspapers today already stated that hotels in Pattaya were full, if the impact of the floods are going to mean ppl can't return to their homes for a number of weeks there could well be a problem when things get busier.

Orac makes a good point. Hotels are full. Restaurants are busy, airlines jammed and everything looks rosey for tourism except it is money that was already in Thailand.

For those who think tourism really only accounts for 6% of the Thai GNP it will be a rude awakening.

When a Thai spends 1000 baht on a hotel the net effect is 1000 baht. When a tourist spends 1000 baht on a hotel the net effect is 10,000 baht because the money is coming from outside of Thailand.

[Ulysses G.]

Foreign tourists tend to spend a lot more on laundry, restaurants, massage parlors and everything else than average Thais traveling around the country.

[kerryk]

Foreign tourists tend to spend a lot more on laundry, restaurants, massage parlors and everything else than average Thais traveling around the country.

Used books too!

[IMA_FARANG]

Fair enough, he's got his opinion.

But why should I listen to someone living in the U.K. and his/her on-the-spot opinion of what's happening in Bangkok?

He/she doesn't have any better information than we do here...especially since our information is sketchy at best...why should we believe he/she can get better information?

Bangkok is not in panic mode.

Bangkok is not swamped by water.

Bangkok is not reeling from the effects of the floods.

These are sensational headlines used to get the attention of the beer swilling masses so they will buy a newspaper ... and pay the salary of the person who wrote that article... and just maybe buy one of those items in the adverts that pay for the continued operation of that newspaper.

Information is a definite 2nd place, and any attempt at real undrstanding is at best third place.

So why should I pay attention to them?

[Swiss1960]

The problem, more for Pattaya than resorts further south, could be where these tourists are going to stay. One of the Pattaya newspapers today already stated that hotels in Pattaya were full, if the impact of the floods are going to mean ppl can't return to their homes for a number of weeks there could well be a problem when things get busier.

You are right that such a situation would cause problems - but I think it will not be the problem for the tourists arriving but for the people who had to flee from BKK. I think that at the end of the day, the hotels will rather honour the (mostly pre-paid) bookings of the tourists coming and will "remove" the people from BKK from their hotels if necessary. As mentioned, hotels know that tourist will spend more money (not only but also) on the hotel's premisise (bar, restaurant, laundry etc.) than the people fleeing from BKK will do...

For the hotels, it's business... they want the tourists to come back to their hotel next time, and tourists would not come back if their current booking would not be honoured.

[Mobi]

It is becoming increasingly apparent that this story will stay at the top of the world's news agenda even longer than the 2009 riots did.

Already it is one of the top stories in most of the world's media, second only to the Euro bail out crisis.

Much will depend on how this story continues to unfold and to what extent Bangkok suffers, but the signs are not good.

Of course no-one can really predict the short or medium term on tourist numbers, and I have always been one of those to say that the typical tourist to Thailand is remarkable resilient with regard to 'local' problems. Thailand has always been such a popular destination, that many will continue to have their holidays here, come what may.

This will particularly apply to tourists heading for the southern resorts, Hua Hin and even Pattaya, but as some have pointed out, there may be some short term problems with accommodation in some places.

But some of you seem to have forgotten that Bangkok itself is a major tourist destination, particularly for visitors from other Asian countries, and also for some 'high end' tourists, who stay at the Oriental and other luxury Hotels which may now be subjected to flooding. (If not the hotels themselves, then certainly the surrounding areas). These numbers will surely be affected very badly in the short term and who knows for how long thereafter.

And don't forget Bangkok's highly lucrative medical tourism, I am sure this will be affected - not sure that I'd want a major operation in a City that is being undated by trillions of gallons of flood water.

As someone has pointed out, foreign tourists means foreign exchange earnings - effectively exports - and it doesn't take a genius to understand which kind of tourist is more beneficial to the Thai economy.

Much will depend on what transpires over the next few weeks.If Bangkok becomes badly flooded and millions of residents have to flea, it will have a wide spread effect on the Thai economy and the recovery will be slow. Who knows, the situation may get so out of hand that undemocratic forces may start to rear their ugly heads. Then we will have a flood crisis and a political crisis.

But even if the flooding is kept reasonably well in check, if the government doesn't take urgent measures to prevent a re-occurrence of floods in future years, the long term effects on the Thai economy could be very bad. Not only tourism would be affected, but foreign investors would start to look elsewhere to manufacture their export-earning products, and as the crops become ruined yet again, Thailand could even find itself being a net importer of food.

I hope none of this happens, but someone in this government better wake up soon and stop trying to make political points out of this disaster, and get some experts involved in managing the crisis, regardless of their political affiliations. If it means declaring a state of emergency - then so be it. Just do something for the benefit of the Thai people and their country.

Please

[kerryk]

But even if the flooding is kept reasonably well in check, if the government doesn't take urgent measures to prevent a re-occurrence of floods in future years, the long term effects on the Thai economy could be very bad. Not only tourism would be affected, but foreign investors would start to look elsewhere to manufacture their export-earning products, and as the crops become ruined yet again, Thailand could even find itself being a net importer of food.

I hope none of this happens, but someone in this government better wake up soon and stop trying to make political points out of this disaster, and get some experts involved in managing the crisis, regardless of their political affiliations. If it means declaring a state of emergency - then so be it. Just do something for the benefit of the Thai people and their country.

Please

If you let the damns loose when they get full instead of holding the water it won't flood. But that means you have to know how much rain will come in the following 3 months.

If memory serves me right the current government has only been in office 60 days. The errors in judgement that caused the flooding took place at least two months ago. Not saying you are wrong but it is not a simple process. Experts can't undo the mistakes that were made months ago.

[Mobi]

But even if the flooding is kept reasonably well in check, if the government doesn't take urgent measures to prevent a re-occurrence of floods in future years, the long term effects on the Thai economy could be very bad. Not only tourism would be affected, but foreign investors would start to look elsewhere to manufacture their export-earning products, and as the crops become ruined yet again, Thailand could even find itself being a net importer of food.

I hope none of this happens, but someone in this government better wake up soon and stop trying to make political points out of this disaster, and get some experts involved in managing the crisis, regardless of their political affiliations. If it means declaring a state of emergency - then so be it. Just do something for the benefit of the Thai people and their country.

Please

If you let the damns loose when they get full instead of holding the water it won't flood. But that means you have to know how much rain will come in the following 3 months.

If memory serves me right the current government has only been in office 60 days. The errors in judgement that caused the flooding took place at least two months ago. Not saying you are wrong but it is not a simple process. Experts can't undo the mistakes that were made months ago.

errm.. I have no particular desire to apportion blame as IMHO they are all as bad as each other, but if even some of today's Nation commentary is to be believed, then the present administration is certainly at least partly culpable.

Here is some of what what written:

In spite of heavy storms this year, water levels in general have not been significantly worse than the great floods in 1995. More investigation is needed on water releases from the dams this year and in 1995. Water resources experts from Plamod Maiklad to Dr Smith Thammasaroj have asserted that floods could have been avoided. I was told that a Cabinet member spoke to irrigation and electricity officials not to release the water from dams, in spite of heavy downpours in September, so there would be enough water for farmers. "I shall assume sole responsibility for this," he said.

The delay in releasing water from dams, particularly Bhumibol Dam, in the North has caused mayhem because the water has to be released en masse otherwise the dams would have been broken apart. This Cabinet member has not yet come out to assume any responsibility for his decision that caused unprecedented floods to so far destroy 10,000 factories and plunged millions of Thais into bankruptcy and homelessness. What was his motivation? Was it meant to coincide with 9/11?

Prime Minister Yingluck initiated the Bang Rakam Model to tackle the floods in September after visiting Amphoe Bang Rakam, Phitsanulok. Bang Rakam (bang, small town; rakam, painful suffering) is far from being an auspicious name. She must have been informed about the serious threat of floods, which started in August. It was not until October 9 that she signed an executive order to create the Flood Relief Operation Centre (Froc). What happened during the interval on the flood prevention programme when ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra stole the news headlines?

Yingluck has put the wrong people in the wrong jobs. Does she know what she is doing? Froc is headed by Police General Pracha Phromnok, the justice minister. Pracha has virtually no knowledge of water resources and crisis management. Korbsak Sabhavasu, the Democrat's strategist, was surprised upon learning that Dhirachai Wuthitham served as secretary-general of Froc? He asked: "Who is Dhirachai? If he is unknown, how can he coordiate with all the agencies and ministries to combat the floods?"

The Interior Ministry sits on the sidelines doing virtually nothing to tackle the crisis. Interior Minister Yongyuth Vichaidit said the floods are beyond his and the ministry's ability to tackle, although the ministry has the country's largest manpower and resources network to respond to a crisis situation to help the people.

We have not seen the police on TV helping the flood victims. Police General Phriewphan Damarong, a younger brother of Pojaman Na Pombejra, has been appointed police chief. He made some news initially. After the floods become more serious, he did not appear in the public eye. The police force is an idle watcher of the tragedy. Instead, the military has sent out 40,000 personnel to help communities fighting the floods. Why does the police force adopt a do-nothing attitude?

Pheu Thai MPs and ministers are not helping flood victims. They are nowhere to be seen. Where are they?

Red-shirt leaders have not come out to help those affected by the floods either. In April and May last year, they campaigned against the elite and for democracy. This year their people are suffering badly, but not a single red-shirt leader has emerged to help the poor. Ironically, the provinces suffering from the floods are Pheu Thai territories. Where are they?

...and so it goes on.... as I say, who knows how much of it is mischief making and just how much of the blame should be shared by the previous government. But one way or another it is an unholy mess and as I said, someone needs get their act together pronto....

[kerryk]

Those are some very astute quotes. I have been listening to the story from the Thai side from watching the news with Thai friends.

The delay in releasing the dam water and the cops not doing anything are the most damning from my point of view.

Talk about for want of a nail the battle was lost type of thing.

It is difficult to separate the consequences of the flood from the poor rich struggle type of stuff.

Water was held for the farmers and now Bangkok is getting trashed as a result.

I think the best hope is to hope that it was just an error in judgement and not a politically motivated decision.

Because if it was political I don't see any really objective politicians on the horizon who put the welfare of Thailand ahead of party politics. I also think the same thing could be said for the UK, US, France and Germany and their respective countries and/or the Eurozone.

[thaibeachlovers]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

How magnanimous.....make it easier on expats & tourists....that helps how again?

Tourism is what 6-8% of GDP for Thailand....

In this time of crisis I do not think they are too worried about easing up visa time limits.

Especially as food & drinking water dwindles

Tourism plus expats contributes a lot more than 8% but as much of it is direct there is no way of estimating it. eg how can the authorities know how much an individual spends on their temporary girlfriends? It's not possible. Many cheap beach hotels don't even register their guests.

Now that the factories will be closed, allowing tourists/ expats to stay longer, more easily, would allow many workers to be employed in the tourism/ accomodation/ restaurant sector.

Food and drinking water have only dwindled because of hoarding. Do you think that the factories outside the flood zone have stopped bottling water?

[chooka]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

But didn't the T.A.T say that the floods haven't effected tourism and numbers are actually up?

[kerryk]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

How magnanimous.....make it easier on expats & tourists....that helps how again?

Tourism is what 6-8% of GDP for Thailand....

In this time of crisis I do not think they are too worried about easing up visa time limits.

Especially as food & drinking water dwindles

Tourism plus expats contributes a lot more than 8% but as much of it is direct there is no way of estimating it. eg how can the authorities know how much an individual spends on their temporary girlfriends? It's not possible. Many cheap beach hotels don't even register their guests.

Now that the factories will be closed, allowing tourists/ expats to stay longer, more easily, would allow many workers to be employed in the tourism/ accomodation/ restaurant sector.

Food and drinking water have only dwindled because of hoarding. Do you think that the factories outside the flood zone have stopped bottling water?

I must be missing something. In my way of thinking an expat is one who lives in Thailand and has a long term visa. But why would the factories being closed allow tourists to stay longer?

[thaibeachlovers]

Yes, and here is a simple way to stimulate a comeback.

Current nationalities getting 30 day stamps by air and 15 days by land, give them 90 days!

Duh.

How magnanimous.....make it easier on expats & tourists....that helps how again?

Tourism is what 6-8% of GDP for Thailand....

In this time of crisis I do not think they are too worried about easing up visa time limits.

Especially as food & drinking water dwindles

Tourism plus expats contributes a lot more than 8% but as much of it is direct there is no way of estimating it. eg how can the authorities know how much an individual spends on their temporary girlfriends? It's not possible. Many cheap beach hotels don't even register their guests.

Now that the factories will be closed, allowing tourists/ expats to stay longer, more easily, would allow many workers to be employed in the tourism/ accomodation/ restaurant sector.

Food and drinking water have only dwindled because of hoarding. Do you think that the factories outside the flood zone have stopped bottling water?

I must be missing something. In my way of thinking an expat is one who lives in Thailand and has a long term visa. But why would the factories being closed allow tourists to stay longer?

An expat is someone who lives in a foreign land rather than just passing through- many expats used to live here on tourist visas. But you knew that didn't you?

Nothing to do with factories, everything to do with all the workers that have lost their jobs. Easier to stay/ longer for tourists= more tourists= more jobs.

do you have a better idea?

[Jingthing]

I wasn't suggesting that loosening up long stay and long tourist stay options was a panacea. I am saying it is no brainer policy to stimulate at least SOME economic activity in a country as hard hit as Thailand. It's not exactly radical. Many countries offer visa free three month or even SIX month entries for first world incoming so called tourists.