Bangkok Flood Update

[webfact]

Bangkok Flood Update

Graham Catterwell

Special for The Nation

When a General's fighting a losing battle, it's maybe best for him not to say out loud that defeat is inevitable.

There are also many Generals claiming and disclaiming command with the changing tides of good and bad news.

There are also many "experts" providing at least as many prognoses.

In short, it is hard to get a clear picture.

Here's my own view, gleaned from monitoring what sources of hard facts I have been able to muster.

A city-wide deluge is inevitable

After floodwaters entered Bangkok from the North and the Northeast, inflows were stemmed by building the "big bag wall" (so named for its 2.5 MT sandbags, instead of the usual 50 kg ones) and then rebuilding the impaired sluice gate at Khlong Samwa.

Since then, despite maximum pumping efforts, water levels in the initially-flooded areas have risen or at best stabilized. Meanwhile, floodwaters have spread out to extensive new areas. Drainage canal levels have all been steadily rising. All this can only mean that there continues to be a substantial net inflow of water into Bangkok.

Parts of central Eastern Bangkok -- notably (in sequence) Bangkapi, Ramkahhaeng Road, Srinakharin Road, and Phetburi Road -- look sure to be under water by early next week. After Phetburi Road goes under, it will not take long for these waters to flow to Sukhumvit and the rest of downtown Bangkok. Once in downtown Bangkok, this water will await that already steadily flowing down from North and due to pass Victory Monument shortly.

An extended period of high tides begins tomorrow and continues for just over a week. This will not only affect the rate at which water can be pumped out, but bring in additional water as river and then canal banks overflow.

Just as this stage of the flood is becoming entrenched by the end of next week, floodwaters building up behind the "big bag wall" will begin to pour over the top, bringing a second stronger and unstoppable stage to the flood.

No need to analyse the surrounding provinces, as those parts that are not yet under water obviously soon will be.

How deep?

It is hard to say how deep flooding levels will go. My best guess is that the first wave will take all areas to 30-150 cm (depending on contours), and that the second and larger wave will at least double this.

How long?

It's going to be at least another 2-3 weeks before Bangkok floodwaters peak. It's anybody's guess as to how long it will take for this water to flow (mainly) or be pumped (partially) out, but to say 2-3 weeks from the flood peak would probably be over optimistic. It'll be at very least another month before Bangkok is relatively dry, and then it will take some time to clean up.

Economic consequences?

It's too early to assess, but -- with the country's economic heart stopped, a large number of factors out of action, and a severe disruption to logistics - the economic cost must be high.

How's life?

Those supermarkets still open show many empty shelves. Bottled water is hard to find and then expensive. Tap water supplies are still good in many areas, but can't but become tainted as more and more sewers overflow. Garbage collection is not feasible in floodwater deeper than about 50-60 cm. Electricity gets cut off in a zone when water approaches the lowest meter attached to a pole within that zone. For this with toilets that still work, the sewage joins the floodwater; those with toilets that no longer work have to innovate. Telephones work, but become unreliable as the roadside junction boxes flood.

Access to medical attention and drugs is limited.

Large army trucks can plow through a certain depth of floodwater, but a good number have already succumbed. Both the Navy and the Army are able to assist with boats, but resources are already stretched before the worst has come.

Life is not easy, and not going to get easier in the coming weeks.

The aggregate bodyweight of Bangkokians is likely to show a significant decline, if anybody's measuring.

I hope that I am being pessimistic.

-- The Nation 2011-11-09

[endure]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

[LivinLOS]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

No but his predictions gel with about my best guess, simply following data, sat photos, amount of water north, etc..

[apalink_thailand]

Sounds like a reasonable assessment to me.

[DocN]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

[RickBradford]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

I'm sure he knows as much as anyone else who has been pontificating on the subject over the past few weeks.

I think that Big Bag has had a major delaying effect (as has the complete lack of rain over the past 10 days). I've been waiting for the waters to come down to Sanam Pao and Victory Monument for a week or so, but nothing so far.

But even the governor only gives Big Bag a week of operation until it is overwhelmed, and things may get very messy early next week if this turns out to be true, as it means there is still a huge mass of water pouring down from the north and no credible defences left.

The Chonburi-BKK motorway last week was a veritable convoy of trucks carrying sand into the capital, but that can't go on indefinitely.

Plus, there is the food and supplies situation which is not going to ease up.

After being complacent for several weeks, I am now taking steps to make sure I'm not inside the fort when they close the gates....

[zorro1]

"There are also many "experts" providing at least as many prognoses."

in his own words, just more blah blah

only time will tell

[rubl]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

Wondering the same here, DocN. Does it pay well, or is the chap just looking for name recognition?

I like the very wise words though:

"Life is not easy, and not going to get easier in the coming weeks."

Edited November 9, 2011 by rubl

[sparebox2]

I think we need more boats to push water out of Bangkok.

[whybother]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

Hopefully the government will read it and find out what's going on.

[MaxYakov]

I think we need more boats to push water out of Bangkok.

And more big bags to support the Big Bag Theory.

[jayboy]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

Edited November 9, 2011 by jayboy

[landofthefree]

<br />

<br />So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.<br />

<br /><br />A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.<br /><br />Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Remember Mr Abhisit is also an Oxford graduate and look at how mant things he got wrong. I think we should go back to Paul the Octopus for a prediction its more likely to be correct than the ones we are hearing now.

[DocN]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

Sorry to say so, but most of the stuff he says, I am reading in this forum for days! I guess you and I and some others in here could actually do the same. You don't have to be an expert anymore, to say things like "Yep...we will get water and it's not gonna be pretty!" And sorry again...he is practically not saying anything else!

[outofoz]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

and yet u seem well versed on Graham's bio

[FarangBuddha]

How can a city of 10+ million survive being submerged in 1-3 meters of water for a month or so. Normal life will grind to a hault...little food and potable water, no sanitation (garbage and toilets), access to emergency healthcare, transportation (cars, taxis, BTS, MRT), etc.

I assume Swampy will also be a swamp so re-supply from there will not be an option (or escape).

[steady]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

No, I'm using the crayons next!

[Nisa]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

Graham Catterwell is a business consultant and former banker in Bangkok

http://www.wwenglish...08092227682.htm

Graham Catterwell, an economic analyst with 30 years of experience in Thailand and the region ..

http://www.thefinanc...5/04/32427.html

Thai business, financial, economic & political expertise since 1979 (Self Proclaimed & Jobless since 2002) ...

http://www.linkedin....well/21/b79/960

Political and business analyst Graham Catterwell ...

http://ipsnews.net/n...sp?idnews=58885

Graham Catterwell is a former banker from the United Kingdom who was also assisting Thai firms ...

http://www.abc.net.a...06/s1733784.htm

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai.. Bottom line is he is as versed to talk about the flooding as just about anyone else on this forum.

** Interesting to note he calls himself an "expert" on Thai Business, Economics, & Politics since 1979 but graduated from Oxford in 1978. (See: http://www.linkedin....well/21/b79/960)

Edited November 9, 2011 by Nisa

[Nisa]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

He graduated from Oxford in 1978 after attending for 4-years (claims he earned both a BA and MA). Did he attend by correspondence or are you using some new Oxford math to come up with being a resident for nearly 40 years?

[jayboy]

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai..

Proving what I previously indicated that most Thai Visa members would have no idea, and would have to resort to googling.The chippy comment above is typical.

I guarantee you that the likes of Abhisit, Korn, Anand P,even Thaksin know exactly who Graham Catterwell is.There's an expatriate world with no connection to Thai Visa at all and that surprises some.

[Nisa]

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai..

Proving what I previously indicated that most Thai Visa members would have no idea, and would have to resort to googling.The chippy comment above is typical.

I guarantee you that the likes of Abhisit, Korn, Anand P,even Thaksin know exactly who Graham Catterwell is.There's an expatriate world with no connection to Thai Visa at all and that surprises some.

I wonder why he wasn't able to use any of his connections for his pessimistic opinions and instead rely on what has been widely reported to everyone for a long time. He shared absolutely nothing new and simply made predictions just as so many other posters have done here base on information provided to everyone.

He is just another person with an opinion who has no experience in water control, flooding or anything else to do with this crisis. The one area he could have used his experience (economically), he didn't even try to make a guess but has no issue with telling everyone the worst is yet to come and all Bangkok will soon be under water for a long time.

Edited November 9, 2011 by Nisa

[jayboy]

I wonder why he wasn't able to use any of his connections for his pessimistic opinions and instead rely on what has been widely reported to everyone for a long time. He shared absolutely nothing new and simply made predictions just as so many other posters have done here base on information provided to everyone.

Show me a better concise summary

[carbine1125]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

Yes please enlighten us with your pearls of wisdom!

[Nisa]

I wonder why he wasn't able to use any of his connections for his pessimistic opinions and instead rely on what has been widely reported to everyone for a long time. He shared absolutely nothing new and simply made predictions just as so many other posters have done here base on information provided to everyone.

Show me a better concise summary

I can't help you with the fact you consider this person a God and that his "opinion" in your mind is a summary. Yet, he doesn't even mention anything about the big bag strategy which is already covering 6 kilometers and 50% effective and has lowered the water levels already by 20 centimeters in some regions such as Bang Phlat, Don Mueang and Lak Si . It also has PHDs (not MAs) whose expertise is in these matters (not finance) saying that inner Bangkok will be dry within 2 weeks if the leaks in the north are successfully plugged..

So, what you call a concise summary doesn't even come close IMO and if he simply kept his mouth shut on the subject, people would be better informed. But again, that is just my opinion because I don't know the guy and have not come to seeing him as the God like banker you do who is the foremost expert on all things Thai and has managed to live in Thailand for near 40 years in a 30-year time frame ... clearly if I met him as you certainly must have, I would also see him as some magical gift to the kingdom and not just some other keyboard puncher expressing his personal opinion/predictions on a subject/crisis few know much about and NOBODY can accurately predict because there are just too many variables that can take place..

[Nisa]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

Yes please enlighten us with your pearls of wisdom!

If you are writing here on ThaiVisa, I think it is pretty much the equivalent of having an article in The Nation

[TomJoad]

At least the dry season looks like it finally kicked in. Who do I thank for that?

[wordchild]

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai..

Proving what I previously indicated that most Thai Visa members would have no idea, and would have to resort to googling.The chippy comment above is typical.

I guarantee you that the likes of Abhisit, Korn, Anand P,even Thaksin know exactly who Graham Catterwell is.There's an expatriate world with no connection to Thai Visa at all and that surprises some.

i know him, slightly (so there is a TV link), and i am sure Korn knows him from his investment banking days. Not sure about the others, maybe? didnt know he had become a flood pundit, missed that. I would very much doubt his views are particularly informed though!

[jpinx]

<br />

<br />I wonder why he wasn't able to use any of his connections for his pessimistic opinions and instead rely on what has been widely reported to everyone for a long time. He shared absolutely nothing new and simply made predictions just as so many other posters have done here base on information provided to everyone.<br /><br />

<br /><br />Show me a better concise summary<br />

<br /><br /><br />

[jayboy]

didnt know he had become a flood pundit, missed that. I would very much doubt his views are particularly informed though!

We'll soon find out

[JSL]

Very unprofessionally written article. Confusing and opinionated.